Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the current suspension of certain tariffs between the US and countries like China is expected to drive a new wave of imports, maintaining high resilience in US investment and consumption in Q2 [1] - Overall, the US economy is projected to remain supported in Q2, with the impact of tariffs likely to gradually manifest in the second half of the year. Early implementation of tax reduction policies could mitigate downward pressure [1] - Under the current tariff scenario, it is anticipated that the US will not experience runaway inflation due to the imposition of additional tariffs [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is not expected to rush into interest rate cuts in the short term, with projections indicating that the 10-year US Treasury yield will remain above 4.0% [1]

供应紊乱可能会打压经济增速，并推高通胀。 美联储理事Barr：美国经济稳健，但贸易问题给前景蒙上阴影。 ...

美联储巴尔：美国经济基础稳固，通胀率有望降至2%，但贸易政策的不确定性影响了前景展望。 ...

Group 1 - The San Francisco Fed President Daly observed significant economic performance disparities across different regions in the U.S., with Las Vegas concerned about reduced international tourism, while states like Utah and Alaska maintain robust economic activity [3] - The Federal Reserve appears to be in a "divided" state regarding the economic outlook, with Daly expressing optimism about the economy's strength and declining inflation, while Vice Chair Jefferson warns of declining confidence among businesses and households [3] - Jefferson highlighted that if Trump's tariff policies continue to escalate, it could hinder the decline in inflation and potentially lead to rising prices again, indicating increasing uncertainty within the Fed regarding future economic conditions [3] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices are currently trading at $3155.90 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.78%, with a daily high of $3195.60 and a low of $3150.90 [4] - The short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified between $3358 and $3368, while support levels are noted between $3130 and $3140 [4]

Economic Growth - The US economy shows resilience with a 2.8% annualized GDP growth rate in Q3 2024, down from 3% in Q2, indicating stable expansion despite challenges [3] - Consumer spending, a key growth driver, is slowing due to high interest rates and cautious sentiment, while sectors like technology and healthcare are performing well [3] - Economic recovery is uneven across regions, with urban centers rebounding quickly while rural areas and small towns struggle due to insufficient investment and slow job creation [3] Inflation - Inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.6% over the past 12 months as of October 2024, up from 2.4% in September [5] - Energy prices are stabilizing, but housing and healthcare costs continue to pressure household budgets [5] - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have somewhat curbed inflation, with the current benchmark rate at 4.50%-4.75%, but high rates are also suppressing business investment and consumer spending [5] Labor Market - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, slightly above historical lows, while overall employment remains strong [7] - Wage growth is moderating, easing inflationary pressures, but certain sectors like technology and construction still see high wage increases [7] - Labor force participation remains below pre-pandemic levels, particularly among older workers and caregivers, with 8 million job vacancies and only 6.8 million unemployed [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more cautious in a high-interest-rate environment, with rising borrowing costs making large purchases less attainable [9] - Credit card debt has surpassed $1 trillion, and reduced savings and high prices are further eroding consumer confidence [9] - Retail performance is mixed, with consumers prioritizing essential goods and cutting back on discretionary spending, as seen in Target's underwhelming performance despite discount strategies [9] Housing Market - The US housing market faces challenges with high mortgage rates cooling demand, as 30-year fixed mortgage rates exceed 7% [12] - Although home prices are stabilizing, mortgage payments consume a larger share of disposable income compared to previous years, highlighting affordability issues [12] - The rental market remains stable with limited supply driving up rents, adding to household burdens, while policymakers focus on affordable housing reforms [12] Global Factors - Global economic conditions significantly impact the US economy, with geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains and increasing costs for businesses [15] - Emerging markets present opportunities for US exports, particularly in high-tech and agricultural products, as companies seek to diversify risks [15] - However, rising trade protectionism and policy uncertainties pose challenges to US trade and investment [15]

库格勒进一步解释，关税作为一种负面供应冲击，不仅会推动价格上升，还可能导致消费者需求的萎缩，进而拖慢经济增长。这种政策的副作用还可能影响 美国企业生产效率，企业为应对高成本可能会减少投资，采取更低效的生产方式。与此同时，美国经济整体需求下降，也可能使就业市场受挫，导致求职者 在寻找工作时面临更大的困难。她认为，尽管需求下降有可能对通胀形成一定的抑制，但从整体上看，供应冲击带来的负面效应可能难以通过需求疲软来完 全抵消。 9 TE . H PARKI t yil F 190 6.2 2017 I / r a 01 : 1 即便美国的关税政策已经有所调整，且暂时放缓了部分严苛措施，但这一政策对美国经济的长期影响仍不容忽视。随着经济压力的增加，民众的生活方式和 消费模式也可能发生较大变化，这对美国未来的经济增长将构成了一定的挑战。 美联储理事库格勒近日在讲话中指出，新关税政策可能在未来继续对美国经济产生深远影响，甚至在当前贸易紧张有所缓解的情况下，依然可能推高通胀并 拖累经济增长。尽管中美已达成协议，将暂时降低彼此商品的关税，但库格勒强调，当前美国的关税水平仍然远高于过去几十年的平均水平，这意味着即便 关税暂时得到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential tax reform is expected to significantly boost the U.S. economy [1] Group 1 - The tax reform proposed by President Trump is seen as a catalyst for economic growth in the United States [1]

分析师：4月CPI报告对美债市场来说是一份不错的报告 金十数据5月13日讯，AmeriVet Securities美国利率交易和策略主管Gregory Faranello表示，总的来说，相 对于最近美债收益率的上升，这份CPI报告对债券市场来说是一份不错的报告，而且我们可能需要几个 月的时间才能对美国经济有一个更清晰的了解。交易前景仍然是美联储有降息空间，尽管短期内持谨慎 态度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future downward and upward pressures on the U.S. economy's internal demand are identified, with downward pressures stemming from tariffs, wealth effect deterioration, and potential financial market contagion, while upward pressures are linked to private investment and Fed rate cuts [2][12]. Group 1: Tariffs as a Downward Uncertainty Source - Tariffs are the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturns, significantly impacting U.S. import demand and consequently global trade [4][14]. - The U.S. accounts for 16% of global imports (excluding intra-EU trade) and approximately one-third of global final consumption goods imports, indicating its critical role in global trade dynamics [4][14]. - A negative growth of over 5% in U.S. import growth could exert substantial pressure on the global economy, necessitating close monitoring of the impact of tariffs on U.S. imports [4][19]. Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect of U.S. residents is highly sensitive to stock market performance, with a potential decline in consumer spending resilience if the stock market continues to fall [6][26]. - A 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq index in Q1 2024 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%, with further declines potentially exacerbating this effect [6][26]. - The outlook for disposable cash flow is bleak, with a projected 4.5% year-on-year increase in wage income for 2025, slightly below 2024's 4.8% [7][30]. Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market is currently facing multiple risks, including liquidity issues and high leverage, which could amplify market volatility and impact the economic fundamentals [8][36]. - Political uncertainties, such as tariffs, may further exacerbate financial market fluctuations, posing additional risks to economic growth [8][36]. Group 4: Private Investment as an Upward Risk - Following the Fed's rate cuts, real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years, typically leading economic recovery [9][40]. - Major U.S. tech companies are increasing their capital expenditures, with a 19% upward revision in 2025 capital spending expectations compared to earlier forecasts [9][46].

美联储理事巴尔：美国经济仍处于良好状态。 ...