关税前美国"抢消费 " 。 从零售增速来看， 2025 年 3 月美国零售销售同比增速升至 4.9% ，为 2023 年 12 月以来的最高水平， 3 月环比增速升至 1.5% ，或反映美国居民在关税预期下抢先消费。 一方面， 美国非 农数据显示， 2024 年 6 月以来，美国名义时薪同比增速稳定在 4% 左右，实际时薪增速同比增速在 1% 附近波动，薪资收入增长依旧较为稳定。 但另一方面， 居民超额储蓄即将耗尽，信用卡贷款利率仍在高 位，后续消费需求或有所减弱。由于关税不确定性打击消费信心， 2025 年 4 月密歇根消费者信心指数大 幅下降至 52.2 ，指向未来美国消费或仍将放缓。 报 告 正 文 进口"转换"为投资。 美国 2025 年一季度 GDP 环比折年率转负至 -0.3% ，实际同比增速回落至 2% ，显示 经济走弱。 一方面，进口大增拖累 GDP 增速。在关税预期下，美国企业"抢进口"， 一季度进口环比折年 率跃升至 41.3% 。根据 BEA ，进口产品主要为药品等消费品，以及计算机设备等资本品。 另一方面，进 口货物被用于投资，设备投资和私人库存增速大幅走高。 一季度投资环比折年率升至 ...

美国关税政策如儿戏，美国经济蒙上阴影，黄金能否再破位？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

民调显示特朗普对美国经济处理方式的支持率降至36% 智通财经4月30日电，路透社/益普索民调显示，美国总统特朗普的总体支持率稳定在42%，特朗普对美 国经济处理方式的支持率降至36%（反对率升至56%），对移民政策的支持率保持不变，为45%（反对 率升至48%）。 ...

美国有线电视新闻网民调机构进行的一项最新民调显示，59%的民众认为美国总统特朗普的政策恶化了 美国经济状况，这一比例较3月份的51%有所上升。调查还发现，美国人对本国经济状况普遍不满，对 白宫新贸易政策缺乏热情。60%的民众称特朗普政策提高了所在社区生活成本，仅12%的民众认为其政 策有助于降低物价。此外，仅有34%的美国人对经济持乐观态度，29%的人感到悲观，37%的人表示担 忧。(央视新闻) ...

金十数据4月28日讯，Reichmuth & Co的Christof Reichmuth在报告中表示，美元和美债比美国经济或美 国股市更令人担忧。美元和美债的表现"直接取决于政治决策"。俄罗斯在十年前就放弃了美元，欧洲国 家现在也在质疑其美元储备的安全性。但他同时表示，尽管美国股市当前估值过高缺乏吸引力，但美国 仍拥有优质企业，尤其体现在科技和能源领域。 分析师：美元和美债比美国经济和股市更令人担忧 ...

美联储哈玛克：美国经济呈现出强劲的韧性。 ...

IMF首席经济学家Gourinchas：美国经济正从强势起点出发。 ...

美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）主席：并购对美国经济有利。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating that the expected investment returns will be in line with market benchmarks within the next 6-12 months [27]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts for the second consecutive meeting, adjusting inflation forecasts upward while lowering economic growth predictions, which aligns with market expectations [3][5]. - The Fed's Chairman Powell indicated that inflation caused by tariffs is considered temporary, which has significantly eased market concerns, leading to a rise in U.S. stock markets and a decline in bond yields [3][5][11]. - The report anticipates 2-3 potential interest rate cuts within the year, driven by economic pressures and the expected implementation of tax cuts later in the year [3][24]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC meeting on March 20 resulted in the decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, with the next meeting scheduled for May 7 [2]. - The Fed's statement showed minor changes, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [7]. Economic and Inflation Forecasts - The Fed has raised its inflation forecasts while lowering GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with GDP growth rates adjusted down by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1 percentage points respectively [8][9]. - The median PCE inflation rate for 2025 is now projected at 2.7%, up from 2.5% in December [9]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, major U.S. stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.9%, the S&P 500 by 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 1.4% [4]. - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 4.25%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 5 basis points to 3.99% [4]. Economic Health Assessment - Powell described the U.S. economy as "healthy," despite acknowledging an increased risk of recession, attributing recent economic data fluctuations to the initial turbulence of the Trump administration [11][21]. - The report highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with significant inflation pressures anticipated to manifest in the upcoming months [11][22].