投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250408 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 海外方面，在对等关税落地生效前，关税博弈牵动全球市场。特朗普称不会暂停对等关 税措施，拒绝欧盟提议的互免关税政策，但对谈判持开放态度；若中国不取消上周对美国产 品加征的 34%关税，威胁对华再额外加征 50%关税。美盘市场波动加剧、避险交易暂时缓 和，美元指数回升至 103.5，10Y 美债利率从 3.87%回升至 4.2%，纳指震荡收涨，金价下跌 1.8%、伦铜创下 16 个月新低、油价创下近 4 年新低。 国内方面，A 股在假期贸易冲突升级、全球衰退预期下补跌，上证指数跌破 3100 关口 （-7.3%），中证 1000、创业板指、北证 50 跌幅分别为 11.4%、12.5%、18%，两市成交额 回升至 1.6 万亿，行业上仅在中国出口反制下的农业板块收涨。特朗普威胁对华再加征 50% 关税，在幅度上对贸易影响边际减弱，但意味着中美贸易脱钩缓和余地在骤降，隔夜美股止 跌但中概股跌幅调整超 5%，短期国内风险 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Treasury Futures**: Bullish, suggesting active long - position layout [14] - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: Short - term volatility, maintaining a short - term oscillation view [19] - **Gold**: Short - term callback, suggesting reducing positions and waiting for better allocation opportunities [21] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Cautious, suggesting careful control of positions due to ongoing adjustments [24] - **Stock Index Futures**: Suggesting reducing positions and waiting and seeing [27] - **Power Coal**: Stable price, with limited expected fluctuations in the short term [28] - **Iron Ore**: Cautious, suggesting reducing the holding period and avoiding external risks [30] - **Palm Oil**: Bearish in the short term, suggesting a short - selling mindset [34] - **Soybean Oil**: Suggesting attention to the 5 - 9 spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [34] - **Sugar**: Short - term bullish support from spot prices, but potential risks from the trade war [39] - **Cotton**: Short - term bearish, suggesting light - position and cautious operation [44] - **Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil**: Suggesting light - position and using a rebound hedging strategy [47] - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish for domestic futures, bearish for CBOT soybeans, with different impacts on near - and far - month contracts [50] - **Nickel**: Suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities after the panic sentiment subsides [53] - **Copper**: Short - term pressure, suggesting attention to long - position opportunities after sentiment digestion and focusing on the Shanghai copper inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [57] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggesting holding previous short positions and not chasing short at the current level [59] - **Lead**: Short - term waiting, suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities at low levels in the medium term; holding the internal - external reverse arbitrage [61] - **Zinc**: Short - term waiting, suggesting looking for medium - term rebound short - selling opportunities; temporarily waiting for inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [64] - **Polysilicon**: Suggesting both long - entry at low levels for PS2506 and short - selling at high levels for PS2511; holding the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [67] - **Industrial Silicon**: Suggesting short - selling at high levels after the rebound on the disk and the Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage [69] - **Carbon Emissions**: Short - term wide - range oscillation [71] - **Crude Oil**: Expected lower price fluctuation range in the second quarter [74] - **Bottle Chips**: Short - term processing fees in the low - level range [79] - **Caustic Soda**: Limited further downward space for the disk [80] - **Pulp**: Suggesting attention to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the pulp supply chain [81] - **PVC**: Suggesting waiting and seeing due to non - prominent fundamental contradictions [83] - **Soda Ash**: Maintaining a medium - term view of short - selling at high levels [84] - **Float Glass**: Suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities at large pullbacks in the short term [86] - **Container Freight Index**: Short - term waiting, with near - month contracts in a weak - oscillation state [88] 2. Core Views The report focuses on the impact of the US tariff policy and China's counter - measures on various financial and commodity markets. The trade conflict has led to increased market volatility, risk aversion, and concerns about global economic recession. Different markets show different responses based on their own fundamentals and supply - demand relationships. For example, in the financial market, bond markets may rise, while the US dollar index shows short - term oscillations. In the commodity market, most products face price pressure due to the trade war, but some products are also affected by their own supply - demand factors, such as the potential increase in palm oil inventory and the impact of copper's macro - sentiment and inventory structure on its price. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - News: China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods starting from April 10, 2025. The central bank conducted 2234 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 3, with a net investment of 49 billion yuan [12][13] - Comment: The trade conflict may escalate, and the upward trend of the bond market is relatively certain. Long - term bonds may still have downward space after the holiday, and short - term bonds may rise if the monetary policy turns loose [13] - Investment Advice: Actively conduct long - position layout [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: US Treasury Secretary supports the tariff policy and denies that the US will fall into recession. The White House Chief Economic Advisor says the market crash is not Trump's strategy. The EU is ready to counter the US tariff measures [15][16][17] - Comment: White House officials believe the impact of tariffs on the economy is controllable. Short - term tariffs will continue to cause significant market fluctuations, and the US dollar index will maintain an oscillatory trend [18] - Investment Advice: Short - term oscillation of the US dollar [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Fed Chairman Powell says monetary policy needs to remain cautious. The US March non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations. China imposed a 34% tariff on US - originated imported goods [20][21] - Comment: Gold prices fell by more than 2% on Friday. The US tariff policy and OPEC's production increase led to a decline in market risk appetite, and gold was affected by liquidity. The short - term financial market's risk - aversion sentiment persists, but gold's trade - related premium is limited [21] - Investment Advice: Short - term callback, reducing positions and waiting for better allocation opportunities [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: The US March non - farm employment increased by 228,000, higher than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [22] - Comment: The labor market remains resilient, but the market's reaction is muted due to tariff risks. The tariff policy has increased inflation risks, and the Fed may be more cautious. The market is worried about economic downturn [24] - Investment Advice: Cautious control of positions due to ongoing adjustments in the US stock market [24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: China's offline consumption heat index increased by 14.2% year - on - year in the first quarter. China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods [25][26] - Comment: Trump's tariff policy led to a global stock market crash. The A - share market will also face significant adjustments. In the short term, the fundamentals and risk appetite are unclear [26] - Investment Advice: Reducing positions and waiting and seeing [27] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: Canadian coal shipments in the 13th week of 2025 increased by 6.52% year - on - year [28] - Comment: Short - term steam coal prices will remain stable. The decline in imported coal since March has slightly increased domestic coal demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated. April is the off - season, and the power plant's inventory replenishment cycle has not arrived [28] - Investment Advice: Limited price changes in the short term [28] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: An Australian mining company plans to produce 2 million tons of iron ore in Madagascar [29] - Comment: The trade conflict has intensified, and the SGX swap price has declined. The black - metal market may be under pressure, especially in the plate - related sectors. The iron ore price may be supported around $90 [29] - Investment Advice: Reducing the holding period and avoiding external risks [30] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil) - News: Malaysian palm oil inventory may increase for the first time in six months in March. CBOT soybean oil fluctuated greatly last week [31][34] - Comment: Market institutions predict that Malaysian palm oil inventory will increase by 3% in March. Domestic palm oil is expected to open lower and maintain a low - level oscillation this week. Soybean oil prices may decline, but the decline of near - month contracts may be greater than that of far - month contracts [33][34] - Investment Advice: Short - selling palm oil in the short term; attention to the 5 - 9 spread reverse arbitrage opportunity for soybean oil [34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: Brazilian weather risks may support sugar prices. Brazilian sugarcane production is expected to decline. Guangxi's sugar production in the 24/25 season reached 646.08 million tons as of the end of March [35][36][37] - Comment: Domestic sugar mills' sales progress is fast, and spot prices are firm, providing short - term bullish support for the futures market. However, the trade war may bring risks to the sugar market [38][39] - Investment Advice: The current spot price supports the futures market, but the trade war may pose risks [39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - News: Xinjiang's spring weather is generally favorable for spring sowing. The US cancelled the tax - free treatment of small - value packages from China. The US cotton export in the week of March 21 - 27 increased week - on - week [40][41][42] - Comment: Although the US cotton weekly export volume increased, the next - year's export prospects face challenges due to the trade war. China's cotton textile exports are blocked, and the cotton market is under pressure [43][44] - Investment Advice: Short - term bearish, suggesting light - position and cautious operation [44] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 477,200 tons week - on - week as of April 3. The real - estate market in some hot cities was active in March [45][46] - Comment: Due to the tariff risk, the external market declined. The black - metal market's fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the long - term demand for hot - rolled coils has risks. Steel prices may decline on Monday [46] - Investment Advice: Light - position operation and using a rebound hedging strategy [47] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: Brazil exported 14.68 million tons of soybeans in March. China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods, and the tariff on US soybeans will reach 47% [48][50] - Comment: The tariff on US soybeans will accelerate China's shift to Brazilian soybeans. The new round of Sino - US trade war is bullish for domestic soybean meal futures, especially for far - month contracts. The inventory of domestic soybean meal will increase in the second half of April [50] - Investment Advice: Bullish for domestic soybean meal futures, bearish for CBOT soybeans. The increase in domestic soybean arrivals will pressure the spot and basis of soybean meal [50] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: The Shanghai nickel futures inventory decreased by 3669 tons in the week of April 4 [51] - Comment: Trump's tariff policy led to a decline in the nickel price. After the release of risk sentiment, the price may return to the previous level. The nickel ore market is tight, and the nickel - iron market is strong, but there is a risk of oversupply [52] - Investment Advice: Looking for long - entry opportunities after the panic sentiment subsides [53] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: US mining giants are exploring new technologies to extract copper from old mines. Zambia's copper production may increase to nearly 1 million tons in 2025. Southeast Copper's cathode copper production increased by 4.25% year - on - year in the first quarter [54][55][56] - Comment: The US tariff policy and counter - measures have led to concerns about global economic recession, suppressing copper prices. The domestic inventory is weakly destocking, and the inventory change may support copper prices in the future [57] - Investment Advice: Short - term pressure on copper prices, suggesting attention to long - position opportunities after sentiment digestion and focusing on the Shanghai copper inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [57] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Lithium Americas reached a final investment decision on the Thacker Pass lithium mine [58] - Comment: The current fundamentals of lithium prices are bearish. Domestic salt - factory production remains high, demand is weak, and the ore price is falling. The warehouse receipt registration has increased [59] - Investment Advice: Holding previous short positions and not chasing short at the current level [59] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: MMG released its Q4 2024 report, and the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $27.28 per ton on April 2 [60][61] - Comment: The US tariff mainly affects lead - acid battery exports. The lead price decline is due to market risk - aversion and concerns about future exports. The Shanghai lead may open at around 16,800 yuan, and it is recommended to wait for the macro - risk to clear and look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [61] - Investment Advice: Short - term waiting, looking for long - entry opportunities at low levels in the medium term; holding the internal - external reverse arbitrage [61] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $18.13 per ton on April 2. MMG released its Q4 2024 report, and an Australian silver - zinc mine is approaching restart [62][63] - Comment: The US tariff affects zinc through market risk - aversion and concerns about future consumption in related industries. The Shanghai zinc may open at around 22,500 yuan. The demand is in the process of turning from off - season to peak season, but the short - term price may still be under pressure [64] - Investment Advice: Short - term waiting, looking for medium - term rebound short - selling opportunities; temporarily waiting for inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [64] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods. The polysilicon production in April is expected to be about 1 million tons, and the silicon wafer supply will decrease due to the Myanmar earthquake [65] - Comment: The tariff has limited impact on the photovoltaic industry chain. In April, polysilicon may destock slightly, but the spot price may decline after the peak - demand period. The polysilicon warehouse receipt registration will start in April [66] - Investment Advice: Looking for long - entry at low levels for PS2506 and short - selling at high levels for PS2511; holding the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [67] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: Sichuan sample silicon enterprises are gradually resuming production [68] - Comment: Xinjiang's large - scale silicon plants have reduced production, and the southwest region is slowly resuming production. The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon is weak, and the export may decline. The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon is difficult to improve [68] - Investment Advice: Looking for short - selling at high levels after the rebound on the disk and the Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage [69] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The EUA main contract closed at €63.82 per ton on April 4, down 3.39% from the previous day and 7.24% week - on - week [70] - Comment: The US tariff policy led to a decline in the European natural gas price and carbon price. The short - term carbon market needs to pay attention to the macro - environment. The EU's emissions decreased by 5% in 2024 [70] - Investment Advice: Short - term wide - range oscillation of the EU carbon price [71] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: The US oil rig count increased to 489 as of April 4. OPEC + decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May [72][73] - Comment: The US tariff policy and OPEC +'s production increase led to a significant decline in oil prices. The global trade friction has worsened the oil demand outlook, and the market is worried about OPEC +'s unity and the stability of the production - cut agreement [73] - Investment Advice: The oil price fluctuation range is expected to be lower in the second quarter [74

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating with a bullish bias. It is recommended to wait and see for now due to the bullish impact of tariff policies but with suppression from the macro and demand sides [5] - Cross-variety: None - Options: None - Cross-period: None - Spot-futures: None 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market has changed suddenly. Under the impact of OPEC's production increase and the US "reciprocal tariff," Brent and WTI have both fallen by more than 10% in a short period [4][10] - After China's tariff countermeasures against the US, the original trade pattern of LPG will be broken. If trade negotiations make no progress, China's LPG imports from the US may drop rapidly or even to zero. The FEI swap price has fallen by $83 to $500/ton, while the CP swap price remains relatively stable at $595/ton. China is expected to significantly reduce LPG purchases from the US and turn to the Middle East for substitutes, and the CP market is expected to remain strong [4][21] - Currently, the US LPG faces the loss of an important buyer's demand, an increase in Chinese enterprises' import costs, and further pressure on PDH plant profits [4][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil: OPEC Production Increase and Tariff Impact Lead to a Sharp Drop in Oil Prices - Under the impact of OPEC's production increase and the US "reciprocal tariff," the crude oil market has dropped in resonance with risk assets in a short period, with Brent and WTI both falling by more than 10% [10] - The US "reciprocal tariff" has a significant impact on the macroeconomy and the crude oil market. It may trigger counter - tariff measures from other countries, and China has announced tariff countermeasures. Global oil demand is expected to decline by 1 million barrels per day [10] - OPEC and non - OPEC countries decided to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels from May this year, which is higher than market expectations. The crude oil market is under pressure from both supply and demand, and considering the uncertainty at the macro level, caution is advised [10] 3.2 China's Tariff Countermeasures Against the US May Cause a Major Shock in the LPG Market - After the US implemented the "reciprocal tariff" policy, China announced tariff countermeasures on April 4, 2025. Starting from April 10, 2025, a 34% tariff will be added to all imported goods from the US [17] - In 2024, China's total LPG imports were 35.68 million tons, with imports from the US accounting for more than half. The new tariff policy will break the original LPG trade pattern. If trade negotiations make no progress, China's LPG imports from the US may drop to zero [21] - After the counter - measure news, the FEI swap price fell by $83 to $500/ton, while the CP swap price remained stable at $595/ton, indicating that China will reduce LPG purchases from the US and turn to the Middle East, and the CP market is expected to remain strong [21] 3.3 PDH Plant Profits are Under Pressure, and the Operating Rate May Decline - Before the intensification of the tariff conflict, the domestic LPG market had support at the bottom but lacked upward drivers. After the US implemented the "reciprocal tariff" and China announced counter - measures, the LPG supply - demand pattern was significantly affected [38] - After the 34% tariff is added, the cost of US propane at the port of arrival may exceed 5,500 yuan/ton, further pressuring the profits of domestic PDH plants. In the short term, the supply from other sources such as the Middle East cannot fill the gap, and some PDH plants may choose to shut down for maintenance, leading to a decline in the operating rate [38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the U.S. stock market due to Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" and highlights the active participation of retail investors despite market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market experienced significant trading activity, with over 21 billion shares exchanged, marking the highest volume since 2025 [1]. - Retail investors are actively buying into the market, particularly in stocks like Tesla, which has seen a net inflow of $8 billion over 13 consecutive trading days [4]. - Despite concerns over trade conflicts and economic slowdown, there is a prevailing optimism among investors, leading to substantial capital inflows into global equity markets [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors appear to be ignoring the potential risks posed by a full-scale trade war, as indicated by the influx of "huge" funds into the stock market [2][3]. - The contrasting performance of the S&P 500 compared to European indices, such as Germany's DAX, suggests a divergence in investor sentiment regarding global trade prospects [3]. - The recent surge in retail investor activity may indicate that the market has not yet reached its bottom, as these investors are typically the last to exit [5]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior - Systematic funds have begun shorting U.S. stocks for the first time in over a year, reducing their exposure to the S&P 500 to its lowest level in 2023 [4]. - Despite the challenges faced by the stock market, retail investors continue to increase their investments, demonstrating a strong commitment to the market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending risk of a U.S. government shutdown due to funding issues, highlighting the political tensions between the Republican and Democratic parties and the potential economic impacts of such a shutdown on investors and the market [2][3][4]. Political Dynamics - The House Republicans have proposed a spending bill that needs majority support to pass, but the Democrats largely oppose it, potentially to shift the blame for a government shutdown onto the Republicans [3][5]. - President Trump has called for Republican unity to support a spending bill that maintains current spending levels while increasing defense and veterans' healthcare funding [5][6]. - The bill faces challenges in the House due to narrow Republican control and requires at least 60 votes in the Senate, where Republicans hold only 53 seats [7][8]. Economic Implications - A government shutdown could lead to significant disruptions, including the suspension of pay for federal employees and delays in key economic reports, which may impact GDP growth by reducing it by 0.4 percentage points in the first quarter [11][12]. - Approximately 850,000 federal employees may be forced to take unpaid leave, and inflation could temporarily rise due to the absence of these workers from the economic output [12][13]. Historical Context and Market Reactions - Historically, government shutdowns have led to increased market volatility in the short term, but the S&P 500 has shown resilience, averaging a 12.7% increase in the 12 months following a shutdown [15][16]. - The current market context is complicated by existing trade tensions, with the S&P 500 down nearly 2% and the Nasdaq down about 6% this year, alongside a 35% increase in the VIX index, indicating rising investor anxiety [4][17]. - Analysts suggest that while the political situation is tense, the focus should remain on corporate earnings growth rather than the noise from Washington [20].