Core Viewpoint - The high level of inflation in the U.S. services sector is concerning, with rapid price growth being more alarming than a softening job market [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Harker expressed that inflation remains a significant concern within the dual mandate [1] - Current inflation rates are above desired levels and are moving in the wrong direction [1]

Core Insights - The inflation rate in Sudan rose to 81.61% in August, up from 78.39% in the previous month [1] - Sudanese households allocate 52.89% of their income to food and beverages, 14.17% to housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel, and 8.34% to transportation [1] Economic Indicators - August inflation rate: 81.61% [1] - Previous month's inflation rate: 78.39% [1] - Income allocation for food and beverages: 52.89% [1] - Income allocation for housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel: 14.17% [1] - Income allocation for transportation: 8.34% [1]

Core Insights - Bosnia's consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in August, while year-on-year it increased by 4.1% [1] Price Changes - In August, prices for clothing and footwear rose by 0.1%, housing and utilities by 0.2%, healthcare products by 0.4%, entertainment and cultural services by 0.6%, education services by 0.1%, and food and hotel services by 0.1% [1] - Conversely, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages fell by 0.4%, and transportation services decreased by 0.8% [1] Year-on-Year Comparisons - Year-on-year, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 9.2%, alcoholic beverages and tobacco by 3.7%, housing and utilities by 0.2%, furniture and household equipment by 1.1%, healthcare products by 6.1%, communications by 0.3%, entertainment and cultural services by 4.9%, education services by 2.4%, and food and hotel services by 7.2% [1] - However, clothing and footwear prices dropped by 5.7%, and transportation services decreased by 2.7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Central Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.1% to 2%, with a further slowdown expected in 2026 to 1.5% due to various external factors [1] Economic Growth - The report indicates that despite strong performance in agriculture and mining in the second half of the year, uncertainties related to U.S. tariff policies and escalating global geopolitical tensions will negatively impact Brazil's economic growth in 2025 [1] - The expected economic growth for Brazil in 2026 is projected to slow down significantly due to multiple influencing factors [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Brazilian inflation remains above the target level, with the Central Bank forecasting a 2025 inflation rate of 4.8%, exceeding the target median of 3% and the allowable fluctuation range of 1.5 percentage points [1] - The Central Bank has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 15%, indicating that high rates will need to be sustained for a "considerable period" to combat inflation [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Central Bank may not lower interest rates until 2026 [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔一直抱有这种观点：关税政策将会持续推高消费者物价。这也是为什么9月份之前鲍威尔一直坚持不降息的核心原因。虽然美联储迫于 就业市场的压力，在9月份宣布降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔依旧对通胀走向十分担忧。他在最近一次公开讲话中提到：（如果过于激进的降息）我们可能 无法完成控制通胀的任务，之后需要改变策略（转而加息）。显然，鲍威尔仍然认为通胀率可能超预期升高。 如果8月份PCE数据确实如市场预期的那样保持不变，意味着美国的通胀率没有像鲍威尔预判的那样强势，美联储降息的节奏大概率延续，利空美元指 数。 ATFX汇评：今日20:30，美国商务部将公布美国8月核心PCE物价指数年率数据，前值为2.9%，预期值持平。核心PCE物价指数年率是美联储进行货币政 策决定的关键依据，如果数据显著上行，可能导致美联储重新考虑降息幅度与频率。 ▲ATFX图 PCE数据与CPI数据共振。从上图可以看出，核心CPI和核心PCE年率均在2022年2月份创出阶段性高点，又同时在2025年3月份触底。又因为CPI数据的公 布时间远早于PCE数据，所以前者可以作为后者的前瞻指标。8月份核心CPI年率最新值为3.1%，与前值持平。据此判 ...

Core Insights - The Brazilian Central Bank's latest Focus Report indicates stable market expectations for inflation, economic growth, interest rates, and exchange rates for 2025 [1][3] Inflation - The market predicts a 2025 inflation rate of 4.83%, consistent with the previous week and slightly lower than the 4.86% forecast four weeks ago [1] - For 2026 and 2027, inflation expectations are 4.29% and 3.90%, respectively [1] - In August, Brazil experienced its first deflation since August 2024, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreasing by 0.11% month-on-month, and the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) dropping by 0.21% [1] Economic Growth - The expected GDP growth for Brazil in 2025 is 2.16%, unchanged from the previous week and slightly lower than the 2.18% forecast four weeks ago [1] - Growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 are 1.80% and 1.90%, respectively [1] Interest Rates - The market anticipates that the benchmark interest rate (Selic) will remain at 15% in 2025, marking the 13th consecutive week without change [1] - Expected interest rates for 2026 and 2027 are 12.25% and 10.50%, respectively [1] Exchange Rates - The market forecasts the USD/BRL exchange rate to be 5.50 by the end of 2025, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 5.59 [2] - Predictions for 2026 and 2027 remain at 5.60 [2] - The current spot exchange rate is approximately 5.32 [2] Market Sentiment - The Focus Report reflects market confidence in the economy, with the Central Bank's monetary policy committee noting increased risks for emerging markets due to global economic slowdown, U.S. policy uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions [1][3]

Economic Performance - The UK economy stagnated in July, highlighting challenges for the government in promoting growth and repairing public finances ahead of the high-risk budget in November [1] - Manufacturing decline offset growth in services and construction, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - Economic growth rate slowed from 0.3% in the three months to June to 0.2% in the three months to July [1] Government Response - The Treasury acknowledged the need for more work to stimulate economic growth, indicating that while the economy has not collapsed, it feels stuck [1] - A new "Budget Committee" has been established by Starmer to coordinate efforts between Downing Street and the Treasury ahead of the budget release on November 26 [1] - The government claims to be making progress in reversing the investment shortfalls from previous Conservative administrations [1] Fiscal Challenges - Economists predict that Reeves will be forced to increase taxes in the budget, with estimates suggesting the government may need to raise over £20 billion to fill fiscal gaps [2] - The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at 4% during the upcoming meeting, having cut rates five times since summer 2024 [2] - July's inflation rate was reported at 3.8%, significantly above the Bank of England's target of 2%, with signs of a deteriorating labor market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to maintain its policy interest rate at 0%, indicating readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary. This decision aligns with market expectations, but there are concerns about the impact of high U.S. tariffs on Swiss economic growth, which may lead to potential rate cuts in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The SNB's current monetary policy is described as expansionary, with a higher threshold for entering negative interest rates compared to normal rate cuts. The bank is prepared to use all available tools if needed [1][3]. - The chief economist at Syz Bank believes that the current robust monetary policy is reasonable given the economic and political landscape, with the main concern being uncertainty surrounding the export sector [1]. - UBS economists highlight that tariffs pose the greatest downside risk to Swiss economic growth in the short term, and even a reduction in rates to negative territory may not effectively counteract the impact of tariffs [1]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Projections - Swiss GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.5% by the second quarter of 2025, with high U.S. tariffs likely to suppress exports and investments, particularly in the machinery and watchmaking sectors. However, the service sector remains resilient [2]. - The SNB forecasts moderate economic growth, with GDP growth expectations of 1% to 1.5% for 2025, slowing to nearly 1% in 2026, and an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate [2]. - Current inflation pressures are mild, with the Swiss inflation rate rising to 0.2% in August, driven mainly by the tourism sector and imported goods. The SNB projects inflation rates of 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026, and 0.7% for 2027 if the policy rate remains at 0% [2].

Core Insights - The Swedish National Economic Institute's report indicates that household consumption has increased for four consecutive quarters, with an improving outlook on the economy during the summer [1] - Household spending is expected to be a significant driver of ongoing economic recovery, with GDP growth in the second half of the year projected to exceed that of the first half [1] - The report forecasts that economic growth will accelerate further next year, primarily due to expansionary budget measures boosting household income [1] Economic Indicators - The report predicts that inflation will be significantly lower than 2% next year, attributed to temporary reductions in food VAT and electricity taxes [1] - Despite the anticipated low inflation, the central bank is not expected to lower interest rates further [1] - The government is projected to have negative net lending for several years due to large-scale debt financing for defense spending [1]

Group 1 - The OECD's mid-term economic outlook report predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast, while growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026, consistent with the June prediction [1] - The report highlights stronger-than-expected resilience in global economic growth, particularly in emerging market economies, during the first half of 2025 [1] - The report warns of significant risks to the global economic outlook, including potential increases in tariff rates, renewed inflation pressures, heightened concerns over fiscal risks, and reassessment of financial market risks [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts that the U.S. economic growth rate will decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, and further slow to 1.5% in 2026, due to the offsetting effects of tariffs and tightened immigration policies against strong investment growth in high-tech industries [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth is projected to be 1.2% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026 [1] - The G20 countries' overall inflation rate is expected to decrease from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with core inflation rates in developed economies projected to fall to 2.6% and 2.5% in the next two years [1] Group 3 - The report recommends that countries enhance cooperation within the global trade system while improving the transparency and predictability of trade policies in response to economic security concerns [2] - Central banks are advised to remain vigilant and respond swiftly to changes in risks affecting price stability [2] - There is a call for increased structural reform efforts to improve living standards and unlock potential benefits from new technologies such as artificial intelligence [2]