这回我也被套牢了。事情是这样的。 有一类上市公司，叫B股。B股是A股市场的历史遗留物。以古井贡酒为例，总共有5亿股份，4亿在A股上市，1亿在B股上市。 于是，B股成为了一个几乎死掉的市场。 还是说古井贡B吧。它在B股上市的部分有140个亿，但每天的成交额只有多少呢？ 500万。 换手率仅为0.04%，约等于0，是全球资本市场换手率最低的地方。即你买入古井贡B，基本上是卖不出去的，因为找不到人跟你交易 或者我换个角度说，假如你是个超级大老板，你把古井贡的B股全部买下来了。有一天你打算全部卖出，你知道要花多少年吗？超过10年。 总之，买入B股，约等于永久套牢、超长期持有。变相实现了巴菲特所言的买股票就是买公司，只能靠企业未来的利润或现金流来获得回报。 正是因为B股买入后极难退出，因此资金对B股的态度非常保守，往往会给B股一个较低的定价。 像古井贡酒的A股交易价格是150人民币。可B股的价格只有120港币，折合110人民币，明显低于A股。 本质上讲，B股的股票和A股没有区别。一样的表决权，一样的股份分红。唯一的区别在于B股是用港币或美元交易。 因为B股本打算是给外国人投资用的。但后来又发明了各种制度（如QFII、沪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" aims to enhance the interests of fund holders, shifting the industry focus from scale to user returns [1] Group 1: Industry Development - Since 2020, public funds have experienced rapid growth, particularly in equity funds, but overall investor experience has been lacking [1] - The new plan is expected to stimulate positive changes in the public fund ecosystem, allowing managers who prioritize long-term benefits for holders to stand out [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy of Yuan Wei - Yuan Wei, a fund manager, emphasizes creating absolute returns even during adverse market conditions by dynamically managing a high-margin safety stock portfolio [2][3] - His investment philosophy is rooted in value investing, assessing a company's worth over its entire lifecycle, which differs from the market's focus on short-term trends [2][3] Group 3: Investment Framework - Yuan Wei's investment framework consists of three parts: understanding a company's long-term return rate, constructing a portfolio that meets client risk-return requirements, and trading to keep the portfolio aligned with optimal targets [12][17] - The focus is on the "total score" of a company's lifecycle value rather than short-term profit changes, which is a departure from mainstream market strategies [19][21] Group 4: Case Studies and Examples - Yuan Wei's early investments in sectors like new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence demonstrate his ability to identify long-term value before market trends catch up [26][27] - His approach to real estate investment focuses on companies with strong cash reserves, ensuring their survival during downturns, contrasting with the market's emphasis on growth metrics [28][29] Group 5: Performance and Risk Management - The performance of Yuan Wei's managed fund, "Anxin Value-Driven Three-Year Holding," has achieved over 70% returns since its inception, attributed to strict adherence to investment rules and continuous optimization of strategies [14][15][20] - The fund's strategy includes a focus on non-popular assets and diversification to reduce volatility, which has led to consistent net asset value growth [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the top 50 actively managed funds held by institutional investors, highlighting their performance, management styles, and the implications of recent management changes on fund sizes and investor confidence [5][7][9]. Group 1: Top Actively Managed Funds by Institutional Holdings - The fund with the highest institutional holdings is Changxin Jinli Trend Mixed A, with an estimated holding amount of approximately 3.9 billion yuan as of May 19 [6][8]. - Huashang Advantage Industry Mixed ranks second, but its size has significantly decreased following the departure of its manager, Zhou Haidong [7]. - The third position is held by ICBC Innovation Power Stock, managed by Yang Xinxin, who focuses on large-cap value stocks and has a strong track record of risk control [7][9]. - The fourth is Taikang Hongshi March Open Mixed, which has a 100% institutional holding ratio, raising concerns about liquidity risk due to potential concentrated redemptions [7]. - The fifth is Huitianfu Quality Value Mixed, with 90.77% of its holdings by institutions, known for its strong risk control and a maximum drawdown of only 11.85% since inception [7][9]. Group 2: Management Styles and Performance - The fund manager of Changxin Jinli Trend Mixed, Gao Yuan, has been managing since September 2018, employing a top-down macro perspective combined with industry comparisons [6][8]. - Yang Xinxin's strategy in ICBC Innovation Power Stock involves a bottom-up selection of undervalued, high-dividend stocks, contributing to its long-term stability [7]. - Fan Yan, who took over the management of Fuguo Steady Growth Mixed A, utilizes a top-down strategy focusing on macroeconomic indicators to select stocks, maintaining a diversified portfolio [8][9]. - The article notes that the institutional holdings from ranks 11 to 50 also reflect strong recognition from institutions, with several renowned fund managers involved [9].

Core Viewpoint - Value investment is understood as buying listed companies from the perspective of acquiring the business, focusing on the company's intrinsic value rather than market sentiment [1] Group 1: Investment Framework - The key factors in the investment framework are the difference between enterprise value and market price, which implies a long-term return rate [2] - The quality of the enterprise, referred to as "moat," is crucial in determining enterprise value [2] - The purchase price must be appropriate, ensuring that the implied return rate exceeds the required threshold [2] Group 2: Assessing Moat - A company's moat is established based on its specific business model, creating sustainable differences from competitors [3] - Cost advantages, such as economies of scale or production efficiency, are often the basis for a company's moat [3] - Evaluating a company's moat involves projecting its competitive advantages over a long-term horizon [3] Group 3: Monitoring Moat Changes - Changes in a company's moat can occur due to various factors, including procurement, production efficiency, and market conditions [4][5] - Tracking moat changes is a continuous process, not solely based on stock price fluctuations [6] - Observing industry events and regulatory changes can also impact the assessment of a company's moat [6] Group 4: Valuation and Pricing - A good purchase price is defined as one that offers value for money, where the implied return rate is high [8] - The assessment of enterprise value is inherently a range due to the variability in core assumptions [9] - When stock prices decline, if the enterprise value remains unchanged, it indicates a higher implied return rate, prompting further purchases [10] Group 5: Selling Logic - The selling strategy includes three scenarios: when the price rises and the implied return no longer meets expectations, when the assessment of enterprise value changes negatively, or when a better investment opportunity arises [13] Group 6: Expanding Capability Circle - Expanding the capability circle involves exploring unfamiliar businesses that may present interesting opportunities [14] - Researching companies that have been listed for a few years can provide comprehensive data for analysis [14] - Engaging with stocks recommended by internal and external analysts can also aid in expanding the capability circle [14] Group 7: Market Trends and Research Depth - Interest in sectors like smart driving, new energy vehicles, AI, and semiconductors is noted due to their potential impact on the economy and business operations [15] - A thorough understanding of new sectors should be prioritized over merely following market trends [15] Group 8: Communication with Stakeholders - The focus is on the quality of enterprises and the belief that prices will eventually align with value, although the timing of this alignment is uncertain [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of fund managers in the capital market, particularly in maintaining relative performance against benchmarks, and highlights the success of Liu Xu, a fund manager at Dacheng Fund, in achieving outstanding relative returns despite market challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Manager Performance - Liu Xu managed a fund size of 25.734 billion yuan as of March 31, 2025, achieving a personal record high amidst a general decline in public equity fund sizes [2]. - Liu Xu's flagship product, "Dacheng Gaoxin A," has delivered a cumulative return of 382.28% and an annualized return of 17.37% since he took over in July 2015, ranking 1st out of 119 in its category [7][8]. - The fund consistently outperformed its benchmark in all complete years under Liu's management, with only two years (2018 and 2022) showing negative returns [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Liu Xu's investment strategy is characterized by maintaining a high stock position (around 80%) and a low turnover rate (below 100% over the past five years), which contrasts sharply with the average turnover rate of over 200% for public funds [15][18]. - The fund has avoided market hotspots, such as the new energy and pharmaceutical sectors during their respective bull markets, focusing instead on stable, undervalued companies [18][20]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, the fund's top holdings included low-valuation telecom operators and leading home appliance companies, contributing to its recent performance [23][24]. Group 3: Historical Context and Challenges - Liu Xu began his tenure during a challenging market period, which has shaped his risk awareness and investment approach, leading to a significant reduction in drawdowns since 2015 [13][25]. - The fund's net value experienced significant fluctuations in its early years but has since stabilized, reflecting Liu's ability to navigate through market volatility [9][13].

利息:可转债到期付息，不到期有波动，下修，都可盈利。 套利:注册两个iD，一个多黄金，一个空黄金。天天无脑各平台唱写发实盘。赢的一方收割粉丝建 圈收费。 最近读了《投资最重要的事》，作者认为只有把握住投资盈利的确定性，才能获得持续的、长期 的收益。但是，怎么做才能把握投资的确定性呢？有集友说把握住周期规律，低买高卖。可怎么 判断行业的周期处于什么位置呢？即便判断出行业估值非常低，短期内不一定上涨啊，涨了也不 一定能拿住啊。 Aolin120 确定性 举例 价值，股息类5%/大公司业绩稳定。分散买入。股灾不影响分红。股价太低就会股息率变高自然 有人买入抬高股价。 波动，3000-3500网格，上证etf。只要开盘就会波动。 折价:低位买入中证1000期指每年10%-15%贴水。指数点位总会回来。 以上只是举例。就是要有锚⚓。找到自己理解认可的确定性。但这个确定性不是主观推测的。最 好是数学逻辑类的。不懂股票的人也能听懂。 股票是最不容易三知道的（股价＝盈利×估值。盈 利稍微好预测一点，估值可是千变万化）。可以尝试可转债，指数，债券等相对简单的品种。 wxhcome1987 补充下师座的 确定性来自规则 数学 和 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a value investing approach, focusing on an owner's mindset and a long-term investment horizon [1] - The author does not engage in writing sell articles or recommending shorting stocks, indicating a preference for long positions [1] - The author has no current stock or derivative positions in the companies mentioned and does not plan to initiate any within the next 72 hours [2] Group 2 - The article expresses personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation from companies mentioned, aside from Seeking Alpha [2] - It clarifies that past performance does not guarantee future results, and no specific investment advice is provided [3] - The article notes that the views expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, highlighting the independent nature of the analysis [3]

Group 1 - The stock market has seen a trading volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 20 consecutive trading days, indicating strong investor enthusiasm, particularly concentrated in high-dividend stocks [1][2] - High-dividend stocks are favored due to their stable cash flow returns and lower volatility, making them a safe haven for investors in a risk-averse market environment [1][2] - The current market does not exhibit overheating characteristics, with overall valuations remaining reasonable and corporate fundamentals being stable, supported by enhanced market regulation [1][2] Group 2 - The structure of investors is gradually optimizing, with an increasing proportion of institutional investors focusing on long-term and value investment, providing strong support for market stability [2] - High trading volume signifies ample market liquidity, facilitating easier financing conditions for companies through stock and bond issuance, thereby promoting the development of the real economy [2] - An active trading market is likely to attract more investors, enhancing market depth and breadth, and improving pricing efficiency [2] Group 3 - The sustained high trading volume reflects market vitality and investor confidence, with reasonable expectations for future prosperity in the absence of overheating characteristics [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the quarterly 13F filings by institutional investors, highlighting the investment strategies of prominent figures like Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, and Bill Ackman during Q1 2025, particularly in response to market conditions and economic forecasts [1] Group 1: Warren Buffett's Investment Strategy - Buffett increased his holdings in consumer-oriented companies, particularly in the beverage and food sectors, indicating a focus on stable cash flow and consumer demand [2][6] - Significant increases in holdings include Constellation Brands (STZ) from 5.6 million shares to 12 million shares, Pool Corp from 600,000 shares to 1.46 million shares, and Domino's Pizza (DPZ) to 2.62 million shares [3][4][5] - Buffett maintained his core positions in Coca-Cola (KO) at 400 million shares, Apple (AAPL) at 300 million shares, and other long-term investments, reflecting his commitment to brand value and long-term holding principles [7] - He completely sold his holdings in Nu Holdings (NU) and Citigroup (C), indicating a cautious outlook on the financial sector [8][11] Group 2: Carl Icahn's Aggressive Moves - Icahn significantly increased his stake in JetBlue Airways (JBLU) from 17.73 million shares to 33.62 million shares, signaling intentions to influence company restructuring [16] - He also raised his position in CVI Energy to 68.53 million shares and increased his holdings in Illumina (ILMN) from 40,000 shares to 220,000 shares [16] - Icahn reduced his stake in Southwest Gas (SWX) from 9.63 million shares to 7.53 million shares, suggesting a strategic shift [19] Group 3: Bill Ackman's Tactical Adjustments - Ackman made a substantial investment in Uber (UBER), acquiring 30.3 million shares, reflecting confidence in urban mobility and AI-driven business models [19] - He increased his holdings in Brookfield (BN) from 34.89 million shares to 41 million shares, Hertz (HTZ) from 12.71 million shares to 15 million shares, and Google A shares (GOOGL) to 4.44 million shares [20] - Ackman completely exited his position in Nike (NKE), previously holding 18.77 million shares, due to concerns over the impact of new trade policies on global companies [21]

Group 1: Core Insights - Industrial Fulian anticipates continued investment in data centers and computing power by cloud service providers in the next 3-5 years, with capital expenditures from US and Chinese cloud vendors expected to grow [1] - The company is confident in securing more orders due to its advantages in R&D, manufacturing, and vertical integration, with a positive outlook for Q2 server revenue and significant growth in annual cloud server revenue [1] - The production bottleneck for GB200 orders has been resolved, leading to a stable increase in shipment volume, while the GB300 model features enhanced performance and modular architecture with liquid cooling capabilities [1] Group 2: Company Overview - Shanghai Jinglin Asset Management Company is a private fund management firm focused on investing in domestic and foreign listed company stocks, registered with the Asset Management Association of China [2] - The firm has a strong track record of performance, with its Jinglin Stable Trust achieving a compound annual return of 26.84% as of April 2015, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index [2] - Jinglin's investment strategy emphasizes fundamental analysis and stock valuation, favoring companies with high entry barriers and strong negotiation power with suppliers and customers [2]