美联储古尔斯比：中西部地区的企业仍然不确定接下来会发生什么。 ...

美联储古尔斯比：自那以来，出现了潜在的混乱和不确定性，美联储需要解决这些问题。 ...

美联储戴利：关于政策前景存在大量不确定性。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a general recovery in European financial markets, France is experiencing a decline in investor confidence due to structural political and economic challenges [1][4][6] - France's bond and stock markets are underperforming compared to other European countries, with the CAC40 index showing a return of approximately 6.7% year-to-date, lagging behind the European Stoxx 600's 8.3% and Germany's DAX index's 23.3% [3][4] - The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds remains around 70 basis points, significantly higher than the 50 basis points before the political turmoil in June 2022, indicating a lack of investor confidence in French assets [2][4] Group 2 - France's public debt reached €3.3 trillion last year, surpassing Italy's by approximately €300 billion, with projections indicating it could rise to about €3.35 trillion by Q1 2025, leading to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 114% [4][5] - The political fragmentation in France has hindered effective fiscal policy, with the government unable to secure a majority in parliament, resulting in a lack of decisive action to address budget deficits [6][7] - Analysts suggest that unless France can implement significant fiscal reforms, investor confidence is unlikely to improve, with some indicating the possibility of needing assistance from the International Monetary Fund if fiscal control is not established [7]

操作策略： 周四亚市早盘，现货黄金维持小幅上涨态势，价格一度突破3320关口，目前维持在3315附近波动。周三 金价在跌至近两周低点3282.61后出现强劲反弹，最终收于3313.38，显示出明显的回升动能。美国总统特 朗普宣布将关税协议推迟至8月1日开始实施，这一决定暂时缓解了市场紧张情绪。但他同时表示协议到 期后将不再延期，并继续发出关税威胁，这使得全球贸易不确定性增加，市场避险情绪升温。这种情况 可能对经济和通胀产生负面影响，进而削弱美元走势，为黄金价格提供支撑。 黄金价格延续隔夜偏强震荡格局，但在3330关键阻力位反复争夺后，预期出现受阻回落，目前价格回落 至3315附近。这种走势表明，隔夜的异常反弹主要受短线避险情绪推动，随着市场消息面趋于平静，情 绪稳定后，行情大概率将回归技术面趋势。黄金价格预计维持震荡整理，偏弱回调概率较大。重点关注 3330附近阻力位争夺. 若意外突破该位置，上方将面临20日均线3345的强阻力。下方支撑位需重点关注 3305-3300区间，技术面更倾向于价格回落至3310下方，届时可能重启技术性偏弱回调趋势，后续强支撑 位可关注3285-3280区间. 晚间短线来看翁富豪建 ...

墨西哥央行会议纪要：大多数委员会成员强调，鉴于当前的贸易不确定性，国际金融市场仍然表现出波 动性。 ...

布伦特原油 金十数据7月10日讯，美国银行大宗商品策略师Francisco Blanch表示，尽管今年全球经济增长和地缘政 治方面存在不确定性，但布伦特原油价格仍表现出较强韧性，今年1月以来平均价格维持在每桶70.75美 元。这背后的一个关键因素是，第二季度几乎所有的石油盈余都被中国的战略石油储备吸收，从而收紧 了全球供应，遏制了油价下跌。此外，强劲的消费需求也对油价形成支撑。目前公路出行和航空旅行需 求依然旺盛，同时美国关税政策促使进口商提前采购原油，以规避未来可能实施的限制措施，这也为油 价提供了额外支撑。 美银：全球经济不确定性中，布油价格保持坚挺 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nuveen anticipates that the second half of 2025 will face dual pressures of economic slowdown and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess asset allocation strategies focusing on robust fundamentals, defensive characteristics, and spread advantages to enhance return potential and mitigate risks [1][2] Global Economic Outlook - The global investment committee of Nuveen expects potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, but inflation driven by tariffs may lead to a pause in easing [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause after previous rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates once [1] Asset Allocation Strategy - Nuveen recommends focusing on assets driven by spreads and reducing reliance on risk-free rates, with municipal bonds attracting long-term investors due to a steep yield curve [1] - The real estate market is gradually recovering after two years of stagnation, with strong demand observed in medical office spaces, grocery retail properties, and affordable housing [1] Stock Market Insights - Large U.S. tech companies are benefiting from the expansion of AI, increased demand for data centers, and power generation, leading to an upgrade in market positioning [1] - Defensive sectors such as finance and infrastructure are highlighted, while European equities present long-term value; emerging markets are becoming less attractive due to trade policy impacts [1] Investment Strategies - Nuveen advises investors to adopt a broadly diversified and actively managed strategy to navigate policy changes and economic slowdowns [2] - Preferred loans and securities are favored for their attractive valuations and solid credit quality, while investment-grade corporate bonds are viewed less favorably due to narrowing spreads [2] Real Estate Sector Focus - Nuveen continues to explore opportunities arising from demographic and educational diversity, with a positive outlook on medical, industrial, and residential sectors [2] - The office market faces challenges, with vacancy rates expected to improve but recovery still requiring time; real estate bonds currently offer valuation advantages over real estate stocks [2] Infrastructure Investment Preferences - Nuveen prefers public-private projects, particularly in electricity, utilities, and energy storage investments [2] - Agricultural land assets are seen as an inflation hedge, although returns are expected to slow in 2025, especially for grain crops affected by tariff pressures [2]

纪要中明确指出，如果关税带来的物价上涨不仅高于预期，而且持续性较强，甚至影响了中长期通胀预期的 锚定，美联储将考虑维持更严格的货币政策立场。这意味着，哪怕核心通胀数据出现短暂回落，只要市场通 胀预期未稳，美联储仍会倾向于按兵不动，甚至不排除进一步收紧的可能。 DLSMARKETS认为最新公布的美联储6月会议纪要传递出一个清晰而复杂的信号：面对外部冲击，尤其是关 税引发的物价上行压力，货币政策的路径选择再次陷入两难。如果说过去一年市场对美联储降息节奏的期待 主要围绕通胀数据本身展开，那么此刻，特朗普加征关税所引发的输入型通胀风险正成为政策讨论的新焦 点。 从金融市场反馈来看，纪要公布后，短期利率期货价格波动加剧，投资者对于9月是否降息的预期再度摇摆。 这种犹豫，正说明政策路径并不明朗，而是被迫变得高度依赖数据。在没有明确信号表明通胀预期失控或就 业剧烈恶化之前，联储很可能维持观望立场，甚至强化"以静制动"的策略。 对于投资者而言，这份纪要提醒人们重新审视利率路径中的"不确定性定价"。一方面，输入型通胀不容忽 视，特别是在大宗商品价格与汇率易受政策影响波动的当下；另一方面，就业市场虽仍强劲，但边际放缓迹 象隐现— ...

智通财经APP获悉，阿斯麦(ASML.US)将于7月16日公布第二季度财务业绩。摩根大通发布研报表示， 巨大的订单数量预期使得走势难以确定;根据目前的股价情况，业绩符合预期将被视为积极因素。小摩 重申对阿斯麦"增持"评级，目标价970欧元(约合1137.71美元)。 小摩指出，市场对该公司股票的走势持看跌态度。鉴于订单存在不确定性，短期内可能需要保持谨慎态 度，但鉴于"26 年的共识预期营收较25 年的指引中值增长 7.7%"，小摩认为中期风险较低。投资者仍关 注"26 年的销售额"。投资者对阿斯麦在26 年的前景愈发看淡，原因有多个。 小摩预计该公司将报告营收 74.33 亿欧元(环比下降 4.0%，同比增长 19.1%)，这比市场预期低 1.0%，与 指引区间中间值 74.5 亿欧元相符。小摩预计该公司第二季度订单额为 41.9 亿欧元，这比市场预期低 12.6%，反映了鉴于季度订单的可预测性较低、对订单量的保守看法。然而，这比我们收集到的买方市 场预期的 45 亿欧元低 6.9%(见此处)。在盈利能力方面，小摩对 51.5%的毛利率(公司指引范围为 50- 53%)的估计与市场预期一致。小摩预计阿斯麦第 ...