Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Short - term bearish consolidation**: This view applies to soybean meal, rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, rumors of the second shipment of Argentine soybean meal re - entering the Chinese market and Trump's remarks have dampened market sentiment. However, due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the spot market is conservative. Brazilian rainfall outlook supports price stabilization, but limited upside due to Sino - US negotiation uncertainties. Rapeseed meal has mixed factors due to trade policies and high inventory, and it follows the soybean meal trend [1]. - **Short - term decline**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to decline in the short term. Palm oil has a high probability of inventory accumulation in October and weak post - festival demand. Soybean oil is pressured by US soybean harvest and has sufficient short - term supply. Rapeseed oil is affected by increased imports and the possible easing of Sino - Canadian relations [1]. - **Upside resistance**: Cotton faces upside resistance. International supply is pressured by new cotton harvests in the Northern Hemisphere, while Indian MSP provides some support. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, inventory is restored, but downstream demand is weak [1]. - **Rebound and short - selling**: This is applicable to jujube and live pigs. Jujube's fundamentals are expected to be loose, and short - term suggestions involve reducing short positions as the price approaches the cost. Live pigs have increasing supply pressure in Q4, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market situation**: As of October 24, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased, while oil - mill soybean and soybean meal inventories changed. Spot market supply is sufficient, but oil - mill profit is in the red, leading to strong price - holding intentions and weak downstream replenishment [3]. - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract) is 2932 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. Spot prices vary, and various spreads and basis values have changed [2]. - **Outlook**: Short - term bearish consolidation, with price supported by Brazilian rainfall but limited upside due to Sino - US negotiation uncertainties [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market situation**: As of October 24, coastal oil - mill菜籽 inventory was flat, rapeseed meal inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts increased. International supply may rise, and domestic demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract) is 2335 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. Spot prices and various spreads and basis values have changed [5]. - **Outlook**: Short - term bearish consolidation, following the soybean meal trend due to lack of new drivers [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market situation**: As of October 24, 2025, national commercial inventory increased. October production may rise, and export performance is average, with a high probability of inventory accumulation [8]. - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract) is 9100 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Various price indices, trading volumes, and spreads have changed [7]. - **Outlook**: Short - term decline, with a weak and volatile market due to post - festival weak demand [1][8]. Cotton - **Market situation**: In the US, new cotton harvest is over 70%. In Brazil, new cotton processing and inspection are over 70%, and exports have accelerated. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak [10][11][12]. - **Price data**: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Basis, spreads, and other indicators have also seen fluctuations [9]. - **Outlook**: Upside resistance, with ICE market in a weak and volatile range, and domestic market facing resistance due to weak demand [1][12]. Jujube - **Market situation**: Some jujube areas have started harvesting, and inventory has increased seasonally. New jujube purchase prices are concentrated in a certain range, and the consumer market is in a wait - and - see state [15]. - **Price data**: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Basis, spreads, and other indicators have also fluctuated [13]. - **Outlook**: Rebound and short - selling, with loose fundamentals and suggestions to reduce short positions as the price approaches the cost [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Market situation**: In the short term, October planned slaughter may increase, and second - fattening has increased in some areas. Mid - term, Q4 - Q1 2026 slaughter may rise. Long - term, sow inventory decline is not significant. Demand may increase with the cooling weather [19][20]. - **Price data**: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Various indicators such as basis, spreads, inventory, and profit have also fluctuated [17]. - **Outlook**: Rebound and short - selling, with increasing supply pressure in Q4 and a suggestion to short - sell on rebounds [1][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply of Canadian rapeseed imports in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases as the temperature drops and soybean supply is relatively abundant. The overall trend of rapeseed meal is weak, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also affected by multiple factors. The initial ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed is in place, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten structurally in the fourth quarter, supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil, and it is necessary to continue to follow the trend of China - Canada trade policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9748 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5344 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 383 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 12 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 7501 lots, down 415 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 108969 lots, down 334 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540 sheets, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4050 sheets, down 210 sheets [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10117.5 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan, and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7529.12 yuan/ton, down 10.16 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 239 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 75 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total rapeseed import volume is 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 million tons, down 2 million tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 2.93%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. 3.4产业情况 - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 5.2 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 million tons, down 0.37 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 49.9 million tons, down 1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 27.2 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.9 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.1 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.63 million tons, up 1.41 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.97 million tons, down 0.12 million tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6期权市场 - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.43%, down 0.48 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 19.43%, down 0.49 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 0.41 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 13.1%, up 0.42 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 23.23%, down 1.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 25.01%, up 0.02 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.58%, down 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.72%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on October 24 due to the decline in other vegetable oil prices but still recorded a weekly gain. The most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract fell 1.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 632.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather conditions, and the expected high yield of US soybeans restricts its market price. China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, and the export pressure of US soybeans remains. However, the China - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from the 25th to the 26th supported the US soybean market price [2]. 3.8重点关注 - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventory in each region announced by myagricultural.com on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and China - US trade relations [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, providing short - term trends and trading strategies for each [1]. - **Soymeal**: Short - term bearish consolidation. Although weather factors support price stabilization, the upcoming Sino - US negotiations bring uncertainties, limiting the rebound space [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bearish consolidation. It follows the trend of soymeal due to the lack of new drivers, and the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation situation is complex [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. The slowdown in export growth and significant increase in production in the first 20 days of this month have a negative impact on market sentiment [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term decline. The harvest of US soybeans and sufficient domestic supply put pressure on prices, and it depends on the performance of palm oil [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term decline. Low oil mill operating rates and consumption season factors are offset by increased imports and potential Sino - Canadian relationship improvements [1]. - **Cotton**: Upward pressure. The increase in supply from the US and other northern hemisphere countries, along with weak downstream demand, restricts price increases [1][12]. - **Jujube**: Sell on rallies. New jujube production is expected to be in a situation of both supply and demand growth, but short - term speculative risks are rising [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Sell on rebounds. The supply pressure in Q4 remains high, and the market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2933 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3034.29 yuan/ton, up 0.75% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.884 million tons, down 208,000 tons from last week; the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.687 million tons, up 29,400 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Spot market supply is sufficient, but oil mill profit is in a loss state, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is low [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2325 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2505.26 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.6 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.78 million tons, down 0.37 million tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The international market has an expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. The domestic market is in a state of destocking, but demand is in a seasonal off - peak [6]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9122 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 9148 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 575,700 tons, up 28,100 tons from last week [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The slowdown in export growth and significant increase in production in the first 20 days of this month, along with the approaching Indian festival reducing purchasing demand, lead to short - term fluctuations [1][8]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13540 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14803 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [9]. - **Inventory**: The national commercial cotton inventory was 1.8416 million tons, up 410,000 tons from the previous week; the Xinjiang commercial cotton inventory was 1.3582 million tons, up 410,000 tons [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The increase in supply from the US and other northern hemisphere countries, along with weak downstream demand, restricts price increases [1][12]. Jujube - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 10750 yuan/ton, down 3.72% from the previous day. The spot price of Kashi general jujube was 8 yuan/kg, up 25% [13]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9103 tons, up 94 tons from the previous week, higher than the same period last year [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: New jujube production is expected to decline, and demand is gradually improving, but there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (lh2601) closed at 12175 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11970 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory was 38.3901 million heads, up 1.50% from the previous month; the planned slaughter volume in October increased by 5.48% month - on - month [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term supply pressure remains high, and the market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with attention to the demand during the winter pickling season [15][16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 据传阿根廷第二船豆粕可能重新进入中国市场，叠加特朗普言论缓和，利空市场情 | | | | 绪。但由于中美贸易关税影响，豆粕现货市场心态保守。此外，巴西未来十五天降 | | 豆粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 雨展望低于正常水平，在中美贸易暂无新的进展的情况下，天气因素暂支持豆粕价 | | ★ | | 格止跌整理，中美谈判预计将维持近低之上运行为主。但由于中美谈判在即存在变 | | | | 数，反弹空间预计有限，追多需要谨慎，短线参与为主。关注巴西降雨、月底中美 | | | | 会晤以及贸易后续进展。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | 棕榈油 | | 本月前二十天马棕榈油出口环比增速减缓，昨日马棕榈油公布本月前 20 日产量环 | | | 短线回落 | 比增幅较大，利空市场情绪下跌。印度排灯 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bearish consolidation**: For soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, and live pigs, the short - term trends are either bearish consolidation or downward pressure. For example, soymeal is expected to have short - term bearish consolidation due to potential Argentine bean meal re - entry and Trump's remarks, and the current Sino - US trade tariffs provide some support at around 2800 [1][4]. - **Rebound and short - selling**: For live pigs, the short - term market is seen as a rebound, but it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds due to increasing supply pressure in Q4 and weakening demand after the festival [1][17]. - **High - level shock**: Palm oil is in a high - level shock state with a short - term adjustment trend due to the slowdown in the month - to - month export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days [1][8]. - **Range - bound shock**: ICE cotton market is expected to maintain a range - bound shock, and the domestic cotton market has short - term upward pressure [1][12]. - **Sell on rallies**: For jujubes, based on the current production forecast and inventory, there is still pressure after the new fruit is on the market. It is recommended to sell on rallies before and after the new jujubes are harvested [1][15]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price and profit**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2885 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous day. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 167.3596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.02 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 988.4 million tons, a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week. The 125 oil - mill soybean inventory is 768.7 million tons, an increase of 2.94 million tons from the previous week, and the bean meal inventory is 97.62 million tons, a decrease of 10.29 million tons from the previous week [3]. - **Market situation**: The spot market has sufficient supply, but the oil - mill profit is in a loss state, leading to an increase in the willingness to support prices. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm is low, and they mainly replenish inventory at low prices [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price and profit**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2307 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 351.1355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.52 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory is 0.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons from the previous week [6]. - **Market situation**: The international market has an expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. The domestic market is in a de - stocking state, but the demand enters the seasonal off - season. It follows the trend of soymeal due to the lack of new driving factors [6]. Palm Oil - **Price and inventory**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 9164 yuan/ton, down 1.40% from the previous day. As of October 17, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 57.57 million tons, an increase of 2.81 million tons from the previous week [7][8]. - **Market situation**: The month - to - month export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days has slowed down, which is bearish for the market sentiment. Considering the unchanged biodiesel policy, it is a short - term adjustment trend [1][8]. Cotton - **Price and inventory**: The latest price of the main contract CF2601 is 13535 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The national cotton commercial inventory has increased to 143.34 million tons, 20 million tons lower than the same period [9]. - **Market situation**: In the US, the new cotton harvest is over half - way. In Brazil, the new cotton processing and inspection is over 70%. Domestically, the new cotton picking progress is nearly 70%. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is seasonally weak. The main contract price is approaching the intensive hedging pressure level, and there is a risk of re - pricing decline [1][12]. Jujubes - **Price and inventory**: The latest price of the main contract CJ2601 is 11265 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9167 tons, a decrease of 158 tons from the previous week [13][14]. - **Market situation**: The new jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and there is a risk of short - term speculation. The demand is gradually improving, but there is no obvious inflection point. It is recommended to sell on rallies before and after the new jujubes are harvested [1][15]. Live Pigs - **Price and inventory**: The latest price of the main contract 1h2601 is 12220 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The national sample - enterprise pig inventory is 3839.01 million tons, an increase of 56.61 million tons from the previous month [16]. - **Market situation**: In the short term, the October planned slaughter volume of enterprises has increased. The increase in the standard - fat price difference has stimulated some secondary fattening. The supply pressure in Q4 is still high, and the demand has declined after the festival. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [1][17].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存，据传阿根廷第二船豆粕可能重新进入中国市场， | | 豆粕 | | 利空市场情绪。但巴西未来十五天展望再度表现不足，豆粕低位小幅反弹。此外， | | ★ | 短线偏空整理 | 中美贸易关税仍对豆粕暂构成下档支撑作用，2800 附近短线存在支撑。但由于缺乏 | | | | 强利多驱动，豆粕暂维持偏弱整理对待，关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | 棕榈油 | | 美豆油价格竞争以及本月前十五日马棕榈油出口数据较好暂形成多空因素交织，棕 | | | 短期震荡 | 榈油暂以高位震荡行情对待，仍可关注逢低企稳短多机会，但上行空间预计有限。 | | ★ | | | | | | 美国政府停摆导致美国农业部相关报告停更。美豆收获上市以及原油下跌拖累美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Agricultural Products - **Beans and Oilseeds**: Short - term bearish consolidation for soybean meal and rapeseed meal; short - term oscillation for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil; high - level oscillation for rapeseed oil [1] - **Cotton**: Uptrend under pressure in the short term, with ICE market expected to maintain range - bound oscillation [1] - **Red Dates**: Sell on rallies during the new - season jujube harvest [1] - **Pork**: Sell on rallies for live pigs, with supply pressure remaining high in Q4 [1] 2.2 Market Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: Weakly sorted due to lack of strong bullish drivers, with support around 2800 yuan/ton [1][4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Follows the trend of soybean meal, with limited upside due to seasonal demand decline [1][6] - **Palm Oil**: High - level oscillation due to mixed long and short factors, with limited upside potential [1][8] - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term oscillation, with supply sufficient and dependent on palm oil for upward momentum [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: High - level oscillation due to low processing rates, hoarding, and seasonal demand [1] - **Cotton**: New - cotton supply pressure and weak downstream demand limit upside, with ICE market range - bound [1][12] - **Red Dates**: New - season supply pressure and potential short - term speculation risk, sell on rallies [1][15] - **Pork**: Supply pressure remains high in Q4, with short - term rebound for selling opportunities [1][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 17, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased by 208,000 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory increased by 2,940 tons week - on - week; soybean meal inventory decreased by 102,900 tons week - on - week [3] - **Price and Spread**: Futures price increased by 0.94% to 2,895 yuan/ton; spot price increased slightly; various spreads showed different changes [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is sufficient, but oil mills' profit is in deficit, and downstream replenishment is weak. Brazilian weather and Sino - US trade tariffs affect the market [4] 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 17, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory decreased by 12,000 tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 3,700 tons week - on - week [6] - **Price and Spread**: Futures price increased by 1.91% to 2,350 yuan/ton; spot price increased slightly; various spreads changed [5] - **Supply and Demand**: International supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is in the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations affect the market [6] 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of October 17, 2025, national key area commercial inventory increased by 28,100 tons week - on - week [8] - **Price and Spread**: Futures price increased by 0.11% to 9,318 yuan/ton; spot price increased; various spreads changed significantly [7] - **Supply and Demand**: US soybean oil competition and strong early - October Malaysian export data create mixed factors [8] 3.4 Cotton - **Market Data**: US new - cotton harvest is 40% - 50% complete; Brazilian new - cotton processing exceeds 50%; domestic new - cotton picking is 58.8% complete [10][11] - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices of different contracts increased; basis and spreads changed [9] - **Supply and Demand**: Global new - cotton supply increases, downstream demand is seasonally weak, and Sino - US trade affects the market [12] 3.5 Red Dates - **Market Data**: 36 sample enterprises' inventory decreased by 158 tons week - on - week [13] - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices decreased slightly; spot prices were stable; various spreads changed [13] - **Supply and Demand**: New - season production is expected to decrease, but supply pressure remains after considering inventory. Demand is improving [15] 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Data**: National sample enterprises' pig inventory increased by 566,100 month - on - month; slaughter volume decreased by 479,600 month - on - month [16] - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices increased; spot prices were stable; various spreads changed [16] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply pressure remains high in Q4 due to second - fattening and slow early - October slaughter. Demand is weak after the holidays [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading strategies for each [1]. - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a short - term weak consolidation trend, with limited short - term fluctuations due to the support of Sino - US trade tariffs [1][4]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal and is short - term bearish [1][6]. - Palm oil is expected to have a short - term high - level oscillating market, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [1][8]. - Soybean oil is expected to have a short - term oscillating market, and its upward movement depends on the performance of palm oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1]. - Cotton is expected to have a weak oscillating market in the ICE market, and short - term rebound selling is recommended [1][12]. - Jujube is expected to face pressure after the new fruit is launched, and short - term large fluctuations may occur due to weather speculation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [1][14]. - Live pigs are expected to have a large - scale bottom - seeking oscillating market. Short - selling on rallies for near - month contracts and holding mid - term reverse spreads are recommended [1][17]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 2917 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.52% from the previous day [2]. - Spot price: The national average price was 3018.86 yuan/ton, down 1.71 yuan or - 0.06% from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 70.70 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 765.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 45.85 million tons [3]. - Market situation: The harvest and listing of US soybeans, the existence of Sino - US negotiation voices, and the slight improvement in Brazilian rainfall lead to a lack of bullish drivers. However, Sino - US trade tariffs provide short - term support [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 2357 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day [5]. - Spot price: The national average price was 2524.21 yuan/ton, up 9.47 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day [5]. - Inventory: As of October 10, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 million tons [6]. - Market situation: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a situation where long and short factors are intertwined. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new drivers [1][6]. Palm Oil - Futures price: The main contract closed at 9322 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or - 0.09% from the previous day [7]. - Spot price: The national average price was 9310 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or - 0.64% from the previous day [7]. - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 million tons [8]. - Market situation: The price competition of US soybean oil and the decent export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first ten days of this month lead to a situation where long and short factors are intertwined. It is expected to have a high - level oscillating market [1][8]. Cotton - Futures price: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13270 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [9]. - Spot price: The CCIndex (3218B) was 14674 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan or - 0.55% from the previous day [9]. - Inventory: The domestic cotton commercial inventory increased by 17.46 million tons to 115.54 million tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. - Market situation: The increase in supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the support from India's MSP import tariff, and the pressure from un - priced buy orders and weak demand lead to a weak oscillating market [1][12]. Jujube - Futures price: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 11105 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.05% from the previous day [13]. - Spot price: The retail cash price remained stable [13]. - Inventory: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36 tons, higher than the same period last year [14]. - Market situation: The expected production combined with the carry - over inventory will bring pressure after the new fruit is launched. Short - term large fluctuations may occur due to weather speculation [1][14]. Live Pigs - Futures price: The main contract Ih2511 closed at 11400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or - 0.44% from the previous day [15]. - Spot price: The national average price of live pigs was 11260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.09% from the previous day [15]. - Inventory: The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory was 3839.01 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 56.61 million heads; the national inventory of fertile sows was 4038 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 4 million heads [15]. - Market situation: After the continuous decline of live pigs, the resistance of the breeding side has increased. However, the supply pressure in the future market is still strong, and the reduction of fertile sows benefits the far - month contracts [1][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bearish**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal lacks bullish drivers due to US soybean harvest, Sino - US negotiation voices, and improved rainfall in Brazil; rapeseed meal has mixed factors and follows the trend of soybean meal [1]. - **Short - term volatile**: Palm oil and soybean oil. Palm oil has potential future demand increase but is pressured by inventory accumulation; soybean oil follows the palm oil market [1]. - **High - level volatile**: Rapeseed oil, with low mill operation rate, consumption season, and speculation on biodiesel in the palm oil market [1]. - **Cautiously bearish**: Cotton and jujube. Cotton has supply pressure and weak demand; jujube has post - harvest pressure and potential weather - related price fluctuations [1]. - **Wide - range volatile**: Live pigs, with strong short - term supply pressure and uncertain demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price dropped to 2902 yuan/ton, national average spot price was 3020.57 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, and bean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons [2][3]. - **Market Situation**: US old - crop soybean inventory was lower than expected, and Brazilian soybean planting rate was 8.2% as of Oct 4, 2025. It is in weak consolidation due to lack of bullish drivers [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price dropped to 2348 yuan/ton, national average spot price was 2514.74 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons [5][6]. - **Market Situation**: International market has expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. Domestic market is in de - stocking but in seasonal demand off - season, and it follows the soybean meal trend [6]. Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price was 9330 yuan/ton, national average price was 9370 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, 2025, commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons [7][9]. - **Market Situation**: Indonesia's bio - diesel policy is positive for future demand, but Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation in September pressured prices, and it is in high - level volatility [9]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14755 yuan/ton. Commercial inventory increased to 115.54 million tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, supply pressure is increasing as new cotton harvests in major countries. Domestically, new cotton harvest is advancing, prices are weak, and demand is sluggish [11][12][13]. Jujube - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, some spot prices remained stable. 36 sample enterprises' inventory was 9167 tons [14][15]. - **Market Situation**: New - season production is expected to decrease, but there is still pressure considering inventory. There may be price fluctuations before November [15]. Live Pigs - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts increased, national average spot price was 11270 yuan/ton. National sample enterprises' inventory increased to 3839.01 million tons [16]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term supply pressure is strong as October planned出栏量 increases. Long - term, the number of breeding sows is decreasing. Demand is uncertain after the holiday [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Rapeseed Oil - This week, rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 10,061 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Canadian rapeseed harvest is approaching, and the high yield will put pressure on its price. The new progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is beneficial to the palm oil market, but the palm oil inventory in Malaysia has increased for seven consecutive months. The initial ruling on the anti - dumping policy of Canadian rapeseed in China has been announced, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory, which will support its price. It is recommended to participate in a bullish way and pay attention to the China - Canada trade situation [8]. Rapeseed Meal - This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2,391 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The harvest of U.S. soybeans is progressing actively, and the expected high yield restricts the price. China has not ordered U.S. soybeans for the current year, and the export pressure remains. The soybean issue will be discussed at the APEC summit. The U.S. old - crop soybean inventory is lower than expected. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and U.S. soybeans will still be restricted in the fourth quarter, but the demand for rapeseed meal will decline due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. It is recommended to participate in the short - term and pay attention to China - Canada and China - U.S. trade policies [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate in a bullish way and pay attention to China - Canada trade [7]. - Market review: The 01 contract closed at 10,061 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: Canadian high - yield pressure, Indonesia's policy impact, palm oil inventory increase in Malaysia, and China's anti - dumping policy support rapeseed oil price [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Participate in the short - term [11]. - Market review: The 01 contract closed at 2,391 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - Outlook: U.S. soybean harvest, export pressure, inventory situation, and China's import restrictions, along with weakening demand, affect rapeseed meal price [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell, with a total position of 313,988 lots, up 10,548 lots from before the holiday. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and declined, with a total position of 371,708 lots, up 18,844 lots from before the holiday [18]. - The top 20 net long position of rapeseed oil futures decreased, and the top 20 net short position of rapeseed meal futures increased [24]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts were 8,057 lots, and rapeseed meal registered warehouse receipts were 9,199 lots [30][31]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,370 yuan/ton, slightly rising from last week, and the basis was +309 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,440 yuan/ton, falling from last week, and the basis was +49 yuan/ton [37][43]. Futures Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +459 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was +65 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in the same period in recent years [50]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal 01 contracts was 4.21, and the average spot price ratio was 4.07 [53]. Price Spread between Oils and Meals - The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,759 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil and palm oil was 623 yuan/ton, both narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 531 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 430 yuan/ton [63][69]. 3. Industry Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of September 26, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 50,000 tons. The estimated arrivals in October, November, and December were 150,000, 450,000, and 505,000 tons respectively. The spot crushing profit was +1,457 yuan/ton. In the 40th week of 2025, the crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 10,000 tons, down 33,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 2.45%. In August 2025, the import volume was 246,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.52% [74][78][82][86]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the 39th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15%. In August 2025, the import volume was 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.67% [91]. - Demand: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4,506,000 tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan. As of the 39th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 61,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19.54% [95][99]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the 39th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 17,000 tons, unchanged from last week. In August 2025, the import volume was 213,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.72% [103][107]. - Demand: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,927,200 tons [111]. 4. Option Market Analysis - As of October 10, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 20%, down 8.91% from last week, slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [114].