瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.13」 菜籽类市场周报 加籽旧作库存偏紧 支撑菜系品种走高 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收高，09合约收盘价9310元/吨，较前一周+170元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：短期市场仍聚焦于加菜籽旧作库存偏紧的现实，且现阶段加菜籽生长进入"天气主导" 阶段。关注后期天气状况。其它方面，棕榈油产地步入季节性增产季，产出压力继续牵制其市场 价格。MPOB报告显示，5月棕榈油库存为199万吨，环比增加6.65%，跃升至8个月以来的最高 水平。不过，地缘政治风险增加，国际油价大幅上涨，提振油脂市场价格。国内方面，油厂库存 压力持续偏高，继续牵制市场价格。且中加贸易关系缓和的预期增强，增添后期供应压力。不过， 加菜籽价格相对坚挺，成本传到下，给国内 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月12日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约今日仍然移仓,价格反弹。今日中储粮油脂竞价采购国产大豆全部流拍,采购顶价为 4300~4350元/吨。企业贸易量竞价销售也全部流拍，竞价底价为4350元/吨。国产大豆价格跟进口大豆和谷物价 格均走强。进口大豆方面欧洲气象中心的集合预报显示,从最新的6月份报告来看显示出大豆生长期的关键 ...

压力。不过，加菜籽价格相对坚挺，成本传到下，给国内菜油市场价格带来支撑。盘面来看，受加菜籽支撑，菜油走势较豆棕偏强 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ ，短线参与为主，关注中加贸易关系变化。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9178 | 29 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2674 | 36 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 148 | 7 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 311 | 22 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 284550 | -2578 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 573176 | 25259 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 37089 | 6130 ...

6月11日，郑商所菜油期货仓单1085张，环比上个交易日持平。 分析观点： 瑞达期货（002961）研报：油厂库存压力持续偏高，继续牵制市场价格。且中加贸易关系缓和的预期增 强，增添后期供应压力。不过，加菜籽价格相对坚挺，成本传到下，给国内菜油市场价格带来支撑。盘 面来看，受加菜籽支撑，菜油走势较豆棕偏强，短线参与为主，关注中加贸易关系变化。 期货市场上看，6月12日收盘，菜籽油期货主力合约报9178.00元/吨，涨幅0.09%，最高触及9215.00元/ 吨，最低下探9140.00元/吨，日内成交量达278856手。 【市场资讯】 6月12日，加拿大菜油(7月船期)1050美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；加拿大菜油(9月船期)1030美元/ 吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 数据显示，6月11日全国进口四级菜油均价现货价格报价9353.75元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（9149.00 元/吨）升水204.75元/吨。 （6月12日）今日全国菜籽油价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产地 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 等 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-11 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 9149 141 | -39 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) -1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 2638 289 | 9 | | 期货市场 | | | | | 16 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 287128 | -1958 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 547917 | -4152 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 30959 | -12008 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | 3306 | 15019 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 0 692.8 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9188 | 6 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2629 | 15 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 142 289086 | 1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -2291 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 273 552069 | 10 10019 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 42967 | 5349 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11713 | 994 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 0 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 26649 | -415 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 694.6 | 2.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5066 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall oil and fat sector showed a volatile trend with differentiation. Affected by the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakened significantly. Soybean oil was more obviously boosted by the improved sentiment in China - US trade but remained in a volatile range. For palm oil, both production and inventory in the producing areas are expected to increase. Export demand has improved compared to the previous period, supporting prices to some extent. The palm oil market saw frequent short - term capital inflows and outflows, with gradually narrowing fluctuations, and the weekly line closed slightly higher [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the interest rate cut time may be postponed. Attention should be paid to this week's China - US economic and trade meeting. The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices rose with fluctuations. Fundamentally, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report and the follow - up negotiation progress of China - Canada trade. In general, palm oil may continue to fluctuate in the short term [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 39 to close at 3,917 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 50 to close at 8,110 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 100 to close at 7,738 yuan/ton, a 1.31% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 208 to close at 9,140 yuan/ton, a 2.23% decrease; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.53 to close at 47.43 cents/pound, a 1.13% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 18.7 to close at 602.3 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.63% decrease [4][7]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao increased by 60 yuan/ton to 7,930 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 9,420 yuan/ton, a 1.46% decrease [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - MPOB monthly report preview: Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April; exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.9% increase from April [8]. - According to SPPOMA data, in May 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 1.90%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.30%, and palm oil production increased by 3.53%. MPOA data shows that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from May 1 - 31 increased by 3.07%. UOB data shows that as of May 25, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 1 - 5% [8]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 are expected to be 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the same period last month. AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the same period last month [9]. - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Among them, sunflower oil imports increased by 2% to 184,000 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 10% to 398,000 tons, and palm oil imports soared by 87% to 600,000 tons [9]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 14,750 tons, and that of palm oil was 903 tons [11]. Industry News - A commodity research institution predicts that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 19 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.5 - 19.5 million tons. Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons. Thailand's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.59 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.09 - 4.09 million tons [12][13]. - Global palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season are expected to be 41.6 million tons, a 1% decrease from last month's estimate and a 0.5% decrease from the 2023/24 season, mainly due to the downward adjustment of India's import estimate [13]. - Indonesia exported 6.41 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to April this year, a 5.37% decrease from the same period last year. However, due to rising prices, the export value of palm oil in the first four months reached $7.05 billion, a 20% increase from the same period last year [14]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the inventory and production trends of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD, My Agri - data, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][19].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 08 日 豆粕：关注天气与贸易磋商，盘面重心上移 豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面偏弱震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（06.02-06.06），美豆期价先跌后涨，期价下跌因为美豆产区天气良好、中美贸易局势紧张。 期价上涨因为中美元首通电话并同意进一步磋商、市场对美国与中国贸易关系持乐观态度。此外，越南签 署谅解备忘录，将购买价值 20 亿美元美国农产品，包括玉米、小麦和豆粕，也提供支撑。周内没有美豆 大额出口销售订单。从周 K 线角度，6 月 6 日当周，美豆主力 07 合约周涨幅 1.51%，美豆粕主力 07 合约 周跌幅 0.10%。 上周（06.03-06.06），国内豆粕期价先跌后涨，豆一期价小幅反弹。豆粕方面，期价下跌主要因为 菜粕下跌影响（中加贸易摩擦缓和预期）；期价上涨则因为美豆和巴西升贴水上涨的成本带动作用。豆一 方面，现货价格稳中偏强，盘面小幅反弹主要受到豆二、豆粕偏强反弹的带动效应。从周 K 线角度，6 月 6 日当周，豆粕主力 m2509 合约周涨幅 1.42%，豆一主 ...

「2025.06.06」 瑞达期货研究院 菜籽类市场周报 中加缓和预期增强 拖累菜油震荡收跌 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收跌，主力09合约收盘价9140元/吨，较前一周-208元/吨。 Ø 短期市场仍聚焦于加菜籽旧作库存偏紧的现实，且现阶段加菜籽生长进入"天气主导"阶段。关注后 期天气状况。其它方面，棕榈油产地步入季节性增产季，产出压力增加。MPOB报告前调查显示， 5月棕榈油库存预计为201万吨，较4月增长7.74%，创去年9月以来的最高水平。国内方面，油厂 库存压力持续偏高，继续牵制市场价格。且中加贸易关系缓和的预期增强，增添后期供应压力。 不过，加菜籽价格相对坚挺，成本传到下，给国内菜油市场价格带来支撑。盘面来看，本周菜油 震荡走低，关注中加贸易关系变化。 Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-05 中加代表会面，菜系进一步下行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8130.00元/吨，环比变化-66元，幅度-0.81%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7688.00 元/吨，环比变化-4.00元，幅度-0.05%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9101.00元/吨，环比变化-171.00元，幅度-1.84%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8520.00元/吨，环比变化-130.00元，幅度-1.50%，现货基差P09+390.00，环比变化 -64.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7900.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+212.00， 环比变化-16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9280.00元/吨，环比变化-170.00元，幅度-1.80%，现货基差 OI09+179.00，环比变化+1.00元。 风险 政策变化 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(6月船期)C&F价格1048美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；阿根廷豆油(8月船期)C&F 价格10 ...