央视网消息：商务部新闻发言人1月30日介绍，中国和英国近日签署了四项经贸成果文件，包括《关于开展"共享大市场·出口中国"合作的谅解 备忘录》《关于启动中英服务贸易协定联合可行性研究的谅解备忘录》和《关于建立双边服务伙伴关系的谅解备忘录》以及《关于加强中英经 贸联委会工作的谅解备忘录》。从货物贸易、服务贸易和经贸机制建设三方面进一步深化中英经贸关系。 与中国合作为什么是必选项？ 1月30日，中英商务论坛举行，中英两国政商界重要嘉宾以及来自商协会、企业等机构代表300多人与会。 在现场，这份对中国经济的坚定看好，已经转换成跨国企业实实在在的行动。那就是：投资中国，加码中国。 普华永道中天会计师事务所合伙人戴瑞德表示，他们坚定承诺继续在华投资，中国在人工智能领域持续投入，这很令人振奋。他相信全世界都 能从日益强大的中国科技中受益。 英国章鱼能源公司首席执行官格雷格·杰克逊表示，他们会增加在中国的投资，2026年，他们将宣布多项合作。希望这些合作能为中国和他们 公司带来积极影响。他认为与中国公司合作能让他们取得更大的成就。 阿斯利康全球首席执行官苏博科表示，他们决定在未来几年内，即到2030年，投资1000亿元人民币 ...

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank forecasts global economic growth to remain at 3.4% in 2026, consistent with 2025, driven increasingly by domestic demand and fiscal policies [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The US economic growth forecast has been revised upward from 1.7% to 2.3%, indicating strong growth expectations [1] - Inflationary pressures in the US may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to further ease monetary policy, with no interest rate cuts expected this year [1] Group 2: Market Risks and Uncertainties - The likelihood of extreme situations in global markets is heightened due to rising market risk factors, ongoing trade policy uncertainties, and expanding geopolitical risks [1] Group 3: China Economic Outlook - China's economic growth is expected to maintain a robust momentum, driven by technology-related investments, productivity growth, and policies promoting domestic demand [1] - Although China's foreign trade growth may moderate this year, efforts to diversify trade partners and a cooling of US-China trade tensions are expected to mitigate related impacts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The core growth opportunity for the Chinese economy in the long term lies in consumption, driven by the large population base and increasing household wealth [2][4][10] Group 1: Consumption as a Growth Driver - Consumption is expected to become the main driver of economic growth, with a shift from traditional manufacturing and exports to consumption and services over the next decade [4][10] - Despite the resilience of exports, their proportion in the economic structure needs further balancing [3][9] Group 2: Global Investor Interest - The activity level in the Chinese market has rebounded and is accelerating, leading to renewed interest from global investors [5][11] - The proportion of foreign investment in China has slightly increased, with potential to rise above 10% in the future [5][11] - The attractiveness of the Chinese stock market has drawn international investors back, and ongoing economic balance and capital market openness will attract more foreign capital [5][11] Group 3: Goldman Sachs Commitment - Goldman Sachs maintains a long-term and steadfast commitment to investing in the Chinese market, encouraged by the development of the capital market and various opening measures [2][5][11] - There is optimism about further opening measures that will solidify the development of China's capital market [5][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the optimistic outlook for China's economy in 2026, driven by structural upgrades in exports and recovery in domestic consumption, which are expected to provide significant certainty for global economic growth [1][3]. - International financial institutions are increasingly confident in China's economic resilience, with reports indicating a fundamental shift in export drivers from cost advantages to technology and supply chain efficiency [1][3]. - The competitiveness of Chinese exports is being enhanced through product upgrades and innovation, particularly in high-value and high-tech sectors such as automobiles, batteries, solar energy, and grid equipment [1][3]. Group 2 - The recovery and upgrade of domestic consumption are seen as key drivers of economic growth, with evidence of structural transformation in demand patterns [3]. - The stability of China's industrial and supply chains is a significant advantage for multinational companies, making China an attractive market for foreign investments [3]. - Foreign institutions are actively reallocating assets towards Chinese markets, with a shift in focus from short-term valuation benefits to long-term growth potential driven by industrial transformation [3][4]. Group 3 - Long-term capital is increasingly securing cornerstone investments in high-quality Chinese assets, indicating a shift from short-term holdings to long-term allocations [4][5]. - The average subscription rate for cornerstone investors in Hong Kong IPOs has reached 39.15%, the highest in two years, reflecting growing international capital interest in China's industrial upgrades [4]. - The focus of international long-term capital is shifting from price-driven strategies to value-driven approaches, emphasizing the importance of companies' positions in the supply chain, technological barriers, and future profitability [5].

Group 1 - The continuous growth of China's economy indicates that even with a more moderate growth rate, its share in almost all global economic sectors will increase [1][8] - By 2026, China's economic growth target is likely to be set around "5%", which may represent a further slowdown compared to 2025, influenced by a decline in export demand [1][3] - The shift in focus from "GDP supremacy" to self-innovation, national security, and sustainable high-quality development reflects a strategic change in policy priorities [3] Group 2 - China's economic scale has expanded fourfold since 2008, making its contribution to global economic growth comparable to the combined contributions of India and the United States [3] - China's unique advantages include its unparalleled manufacturing base and complete supply chain network, which were highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic [8][10] - The trend of "recreating a China" abroad suggests that despite its own growth slowdown, China will continue to generate significant value through deepening relationships with developing regions [10]

Group 1: Economic Growth Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and has also upgraded the 2026 growth expectations [1] - Multiple international financial institutions have similarly increased their growth forecasts for China, indicating a resilient economic performance among major global economies [1] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China predicts a more balanced economic growth driver in 2026, with consumption being further activated, investment contributions rebounding, and exports expected to maintain growth [1] Group 2: Export Resilience - In 2025, China's goods trade is projected to grow rapidly, with total foreign trade reaching 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase, and exports at 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1% [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that China's exports will continue to be a core driver of economic growth, with nominal export growth expected to rise by 5% to 6% annually in the coming years [2] - The resilience of Chinese exports is attributed to strong competitiveness, dominance in rare earth and key mineral sectors, and growth potential in high-tech exports driven by policy support and global AI-related capital expenditure cycles [2] Group 3: Consumer Spending Trends - Domestic consumption recovery and upgrade are becoming significant supports for China's economic growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating a stable consumer growth rate of around 4.5% this year [3] - Service consumption is expected to outpace goods consumption growth in 2026, driven by policy emphasis on service sector development and the potential for a virtuous cycle of employment and income growth [3][4] - The shift in consumer spending from goods to services is evident, with households increasingly willing to spend on leisure, dining, and lifestyle experiences [4] Group 4: Investment Focus - Investment is seen as a crucial lever for stabilizing growth, with key sectors becoming focal points for future growth opportunities [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a rebound in fixed capital formation growth to 3.5% in 2026, targeting high-tech, strategic emerging industries, urban renewal, and basic livelihood infrastructure [5] - Traditional industries are expected to undergo digital and intelligent upgrades, with significant potential in sectors like brain-computer interfaces and robotics, although they are still in early stages [5][6]

来源：三里河 2025年中国经济年报19日出炉。细看这份成绩单，有两个突破，很硬核。 国家统计局数据显示，初步核算，全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长 5.0%。 5%的增速在全球主要经济体中继续保持前列，增量相当于一个中等规模经济体的总量。 拉长时间来看，"十四五"时期，中国经济总量实现"四连跳"，先后迈上了110万亿、120万亿、130万 亿、140万亿元的新台阶。 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒对三里河表示，140万亿的经济规模既是中国经济的成就， 更是应对未来各种风险挑战和进一步增长的底气。 二是社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿大关。 2025年全年社会消费品零售总额501202亿元，比上年增长3.7%。 平均下来，每天花出去的钱超过1373亿元，这是什么概念？ 形象来说，如果把这些钱换成100元人民币，堆起来的高度超过15个珠穆朗玛峰。 消费展现出了作为经济主引擎的价值所在。2025年，最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为52.0%。其中， 四季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为52.9%。 罗志恒认为，一系列稳增长防风险政策协同发力，尤其是提振消费政策更加系统化，宏观治理 ...

2026.01. 20 当地时间1月19日，在国际货币基金组织（IMF）《世界经济展望》（WEO）更新报告发布会上，IMF首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙（Pierre- Olivier Gourinchas）回答第一财经记者提问表示，2025年中国国内生产总值（GDP）5.0%的增速与IMF在最新报告中的预测一致，较2025年10月IMF 的预测上调0.2个百分点。 古兰沙表示，IMF上调中国经济增长预期主要得到两大因素支撑。"首先，中国在过去一段时间实施的一系列稳增长政策对经济活动产生了显著的支撑作 用，且这些政策效应预计将延续至2026年。其次是贸易冲击的影响逐渐消退。这也是我们上调2026年增速预期的原因。"古兰沙补充道。 IMF预计，2026年中国经济增速将保持在4.5%，较前值预测上调0.3个百分点。 与此同时，古兰沙表示对中国经济增长结构平衡的持续关注。他表示，从最新的经济数据来看，出口对经济增长的支撑作用较强，国内需求和私人消费 的潜力仍有待进一步释放。目前中国物价水平整体运行在低位，反映出国内有效需求相对于生产能力仍有潜力。 古兰沙说，中国着力稳定房地产市场发展，并优化产业政策与资源配置 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, marking a 5% increase year-on-year, successfully achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [2][3] - The quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4, indicating a gradual decline in growth momentum towards the end of the year [2][3] Economic Structure and Performance - The industrial added value in 2025 was 41.7 trillion yuan, growing by 5.8%, while the service sector's added value reached 80.89 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.4% and accounting for 57.7% of GDP [3] - High-tech industries maintained rapid growth, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing accounting for 17.1% of industrial added value [5] Trade and Investment - Total goods trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase, with exports at 26.99 trillion yuan (up 6.1%) and imports at 18.48 trillion yuan (up 0.5%) [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 48.52 trillion yuan, down 3.8%, with a notable decline in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 50.12 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, indicating a need for improved consumer sentiment despite a slight increase from the previous year [3][4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.5%, outpacing goods retail sales, reflecting a shift towards service consumption [6] Policy Measures and Future Outlook - In response to economic pressures, the government plans to implement proactive macroeconomic policies in 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing investment [7][8] - The central bank has introduced measures to lower financing costs and enhance credit support for key sectors, aiming to stimulate economic growth [7][8] - The emphasis will be on expanding domestic demand and addressing local fiscal challenges to ensure a balanced economic recovery [9]

江苏省港口集团南京港龙潭集装箱码头 增长5%！2025年中国GDP跨越140万亿元关口！ 国家统计局19日发布了数据，这意味着"十四五"时期，我国经济总量完成了"四连跳"，先后迈上110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元、140万亿元台阶。横向 看，今年我国对世界经济增长的贡献率预计达30%左右，是全球经济增长最稳定、最可靠的动力源。 在过去不平凡的一年里，中国经济爬坡过坎、应变克难、向新向优，高质量发展取得新成效，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现。 2025年全年重要经济数据速览—— ·全年全国粮食总产量71488万吨，比上年增加838万吨，增长1.2%。 全年猪牛羊禽肉产量10072万吨，比上年增长4.2%，首次超过1亿吨。 ·全年全国规模以上工业增加值比上年增长5.9%。 分三大门类看，采矿业增加值增长5.6%，制造业增长6.4%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长2.3%。 ·全年服务业增加值比上年增长5.4%。 其中，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业，交通运输、仓储和邮政业，批发和零售业，住宿和餐饮业增加值分别增长11.1%、10.3%、 5.2%、5.0%、4.9%。 ·全年社会 ...