本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【惠誉当地时间9月12日下调法国主权信用评级】在政治与财政双重危机的背景下，美国信用评级机构 惠誉当地时间9月12日宣布下调法国主权信用评级，从AA-。根据惠誉的评估，法国缺乏一个由多数派 支持的、可信的财政整顿方案，而这正是此次评级下调的主要原因。 ...

新华财经巴黎9月12日电（记者崔可欣）国际评级机构惠誉12日发布报告，将法国长期外币发行人违约 评级从"AA-"下调至"A+"，评级展望调整为"稳定"。 针对惠誉评级结果，法国经济与财政部长埃里克·隆巴尔在社交媒体上说"已注意到"，但同时强调法国 经济"稳健"。他指出，新任总理勒科尔尼已着手与议会各党派磋商，以推动通过国家预算恢复公共财政 健康。 法国国家统计和经济研究所数据显示，截至2025年第一季度末，法国公共债务已达3.345万亿欧元，占 GDP的114%。 （文章来源：新华社） 报告指出，此次下调法国评级源于该国政治动荡持续、预算法案久拖未决。法国国内政治分裂和两极化 加剧，削弱了其进行大规模财政整顿的能力。2027年总统选举前的竞选活动将进一步压缩短期财政整顿 空间，政治僵局很可能延续至选举之后。 惠誉预计，法国债务规模将持续上升，至2027年可能攀升至国内生产总值（GDP）的121%，持续攀升 的债务将削弱法国抵御经济冲击的能力。 惠誉维持对法国实际GDP增长的预测，即2025年增长0.6%，2026年增长0.9%，2027年增长1.2%。报告 认为，美国对欧盟关税政策将间接拖累法国经济，政治与政 ...

新华社巴黎9月12日电（记者崔可欣）国际评级机构惠誉12日发布报告，将法国长期外币发行人违约评 级从"AA-"下调至"A+"，评级展望调整为"稳定"。 针对惠誉评级结果，法国经济与财政部长埃里克·隆巴尔在社交媒体上说"已注意到"，但同时强调法国 经济"稳健"。他指出，新任总理勒科尔尼已着手与议会各党派磋商，以推动通过国家预算恢复公共财政 健康。 报告指出，此次下调法国评级源于该国政治动荡持续、预算法案久拖未决。法国国内政治分裂和两极化 加剧，削弱了其进行大规模财政整顿的能力。2027年总统选举前的竞选活动将进一步压缩短期财政整顿 空间，政治僵局很可能延续至选举之后。 法国国家统计和经济研究所数据显示，截至2025年第一季度末，法国公共债务已达3.345万亿欧元，占 GDP的114%。（完） 惠誉预计，法国债务规模将持续上升，至2027年可能攀升至国内生产总值（GDP）的121%，持续攀升 的债务将削弱法国抵御经济冲击的能力。 惠誉维持对法国实际GDP增长的预测，即2025年增长0.6%，2026年增长0.9%，2027年增长1.2%。报告 认为，美国对欧盟关税政策将间接拖累法国经济，政治与政策不确定性可能抑制 ...

路透社指出，惠誉下调法国主权信用评级，给刚上任的法国总理勒科尔尼带去巨大压力。 据此前报道，勒科尔尼9日晚间被法国总统马克龙任命为新任总理，接替8日在国民议会投票中未获通过 的贝鲁政府。 据《华尔街日报》报道，当地时间12日，国际信用评级机构惠誉宣布下调法国主权信用评级，从AA-下 调至A+。 惠誉表示："(法国)政府在信任投票中的失败，表明国内政治的分裂和两极分化加剧。这种不稳定性削 弱了政治体系推进大规模财政整顿的能力，也使得上一届政府设定的目标，即到2029年财政赤字降至 GDP的3%几乎不可能实现。" （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+ due to a lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan supported by a majority [1] Economic Indicators - France's fiscal deficit for 2024 is projected to reach 5.4% of GDP, while public debt totals 114% of GDP [1] - Debt interest payments are expected to be €67 billion this year, potentially exceeding €100 billion by 2030 [1] Political Context - Ongoing political instability raises uncertainty regarding the passage of the 2026 budget [1] Market Reactions - Some analysts believe the downgrade's impact on interest rates may be limited as the market had anticipated it [1] - Others warn that the downgrade could trigger investment restrictions for large funds, leading to selling pressure on French government bonds and increasing financing costs [1] Comparative Analysis - Currently, France's government bond yields are higher than those of Spain, Portugal, and Greece, only slightly lower than Italy [1]

惠誉认为法国不断上升的公共债务削弱了应对新冲击的能力，任何新的危机都可能进一步恶化公共财政 状况。此外，政治不稳定进一步加剧了财政整顿的难度。 自2024年年中举行临时立法选举以来，法国已更换三届政府，政府在不信任投票中的败北凸显了国内政 治的日益分化和极化。 惠誉预计，政治僵局很可能延续至2027年总统选举之后，使得将这一目标变得不太可能实现。选举周期 的临近将进一步限制近期财政整顿的空间。 惠誉下调法国评级至A+，债务高企与政治困境引担忧。 9月12日，惠誉评级发表报告，将法国的主权信用评级从AA-下调至A+，比英国低一级，与比利时持 平。降级的核心因素包括法国债务占GDP比重将持续攀升，预计从2024年的113.2%增至2027年的 121%，且在可预见的未来缺乏明确的债务稳定化路径。 惠誉指出，法国这一债务水平在A级和AA级主权国家中排名第三，2024年的债务比率已是A级主权国家 中位数的两倍，较2019年水平高出15个百分点。 惠誉指出，法国的税收与GDP之比高达45.6%，为欧盟最高，这限制了进一步增税的空间。 与此同时，旨在控制社会支出的结构性改革在过去十年中成效有限，并遭遇了巨大的政治和社会阻 ...

综合塞舌尔媒体2025年9月12日报道，国际评级机构惠誉将塞主权信用评级从"BB-"上调至"BB"， 评级展望为"稳定"。塞总统办公室称此次升级标志着塞经济韧性不断增强，财政状况持续改善，将吸引 更多外国直接投资。 （原标题：塞舌尔惠誉主权信用评级上调至"BB"级） ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a clear warning regarding the medium-term fiscal sustainability of Romania, indicating that without further fiscal consolidation measures, public debt could rise to nearly 70% of GDP by 2030, with ongoing risks of sovereign credit rating downgrades [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Forecast - The IMF projects Romania's real GDP growth rate to be 1.0% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 1.4% in 2026 [1]. - The current economic outlook is characterized by dual risks of "downward growth and upward inflation" [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Concerns - The IMF emphasizes concerns over the effective execution of Romania's fiscal consolidation plan for 2025-2026, which poses challenges to restoring market confidence [1]. - It is deemed "crucial" to implement medium-term fiscal consolidation and additional adjustment measures to rebuild fiscal sustainability and stabilize market expectations [1]. Group 3: Fiscal Deficit Projections - If the current reform plan is fully executed, Romania's fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to about 6% of GDP by 2026 [1]. - Without additional corrective measures, the budget deficit may only reduce to 5% of GDP by 2030, while public debt could rise to nearly 70% [1]. Group 4: Additional Fiscal Measures - To achieve more robust fiscal targets, the IMF suggests that Romania needs to implement additional fiscal consolidation measures equivalent to 0.67% of GDP annually starting in 2027 to bring the fiscal deficit below 3%, which is considered the safe threshold under EU fiscal rules [2]. - The IMF's statement does not disclose specific policy recommendations or directly evaluate the current stance of the Romanian government, but emphasizes that strengthening fiscal discipline and enhancing policy credibility are key to avoiding a deterioration in the debt trajectory and mitigating rating downgrade risks [2].

Core Viewpoint - Standard & Poor's (S&P) has upgraded Portugal's sovereign credit rating to A+ and changed the outlook from "positive" to "stable" [1] Group 1: Rating Upgrade - The rating upgrade was unexpected by market analysts, as S&P had already raised Portugal's rating earlier in February this year [1] - S&P highlighted that despite the uncertain global business environment and geopolitical situation, Portugal is expected to maintain a moderate current account surplus [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The report indicates continuous improvement in external financial metrics, showcasing significant results from economic deleveraging [1] - S&P emphasized that Portugal's robust fiscal path ensures public debt remains on a solid downward trajectory, even amid increased defense spending and rising domestic political uncertainty [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings maintains Mongolia's sovereign credit rating at "B+" level, citing stable economic growth prospects and a gradual decline in government debt as key supporting factors, while excessive reliance on external conditions remains the largest risk [1] Economic Outlook - Fitch forecasts Mongolia's GDP growth at 5.7% for 2025, followed by 5.3% for 2026 and 2027 [1] - The report indicates that the government's recent efforts to strengthen fiscal debt management are expected to reduce medium-term debt to below 40% of GDP [1] Risks and Dependencies - Mongolia's high dependence on mineral exports and significant foreign exchange demand pose certain risks [1] - Average inflation is projected to be 8.5% for 2025-2026, influenced by domestic demand, credit expansion, and rising prices [1]