台积电(TSM.US)美国存托凭证(ADR)与其台北上市股票之间的价格差距飙升至逾16年来的最高水平， 再次引发市场对人工智能热潮可能过热的担忧。数据显示，台积电ADR7月较其台湾本地上市股票平均 溢价24%，高于4月的17%和过去十年的均值7.4%。尽管台积电ADR历来较其台北挂牌股票存在溢价， 但7月的价差如今已达到自2009年4月以来的最高水平。 投资研究公司Zero One执行董事Vincent Fernando表示："一方面，投资者对台积电在全球AI供应链中的 关键角色日益关注，显著推高了美国市场对其ADR的需求。但与此同时，ADR的供给相对固定，新增 发行空间有限，转换操作也变得更为困难。这导致ADR溢价的交易区间不断扩大。" 在Acadian资产管理公司担任投资组合经理的Owen Lamont等市场观察人士看来，这种价差扩大的现象 释放了审慎的信号。Owen Lamont表示："当热门科技公司的美国ADR相对于其本地股票出现过度溢价 时，这往往是美国市场泡沫的信号。我在当前市场中看到了许多过热的迹象。" 台积电ADR之所以历来存在溢价，主要有两个原因：第一，它们是可替代的(可在市场间自由交易)， ...

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies and stocks have declined due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with indices dropping over 0.4% before narrowing to a 0.1% decline at close [1] - The South African rand, Hungarian forint, and South Korean won were among the worst performers, each depreciating over 1% against the US dollar, while the Israeli shekel dropped as much as 0.8% before recovering [1] - The market is under pressure from risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's decisions [1][3] Group 2 - Despite recent declines, fund managers believe that the strong performance of emerging markets relative to US assets will continue, as the risks from the conflict are not expected to be deep or prolonged [4] - Emerging markets are expected to outperform other markets in macroeconomic growth this year and next, with international investors recognizing the need to diversify their investments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imported aluminum have failed to revive domestic aluminum production, leading to increased costs for American consumers and closures of local smelters instead of restarts [1][6]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The 25% aluminum tariff has significantly affected the physical market, with regional delivery premiums reflecting the tariff costs, despite the London Metal Exchange providing benchmark aluminum prices [1]. - European aluminum premiums have decreased by over 30% year-on-year, highlighting the price disparity caused by U.S. trade policies [5]. - The CFO of Norsk Hydro indicated that the costs from tariffs will ultimately be passed on to downstream users, likely resulting in higher prices for American consumers [5]. Group 2: Energy Costs and Production Challenges - High energy costs, particularly electricity prices in the U.S., are a major barrier to the revival of the energy-intensive primary aluminum smelting industry [6]. - The cost of electricity for aluminum production in the U.S. is approximately $550 per ton, significantly higher than Canada’s $290 per ton, which hampers competitiveness [6]. - Recent industry developments include the permanent closure of Alcoa's Intalco smelter due to a lack of competitive power supply, and Century Aluminum temporarily idling its smelter in Kentucky due to soaring energy costs [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Effects - The tariffs have led to a restructuring of trade flows, with Canadian producers shifting to European markets in response to U.S. tariffs, which has allowed European metals to fill the gap in U.S. demand [10]. - The increase in Midwest aluminum premiums due to tariffs has also raised scrap aluminum prices, indirectly passing costs onto downstream customers [10]. - The construction sector, which is experiencing weak demand, is particularly affected, as the rising costs are reflected in the performance guidance of companies like Hydro, indicating a soft spot in their extrusion products segment [10].