Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with each side canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs, alleviating concerns about a US economic recession and boosting global risk appetite. Domestically, China's exports in April far exceeded expectations, and the joint statement led to a short - term boost in domestic risk appetite, with the RMB exchange rate and domestic stock markets strengthening. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks may rebound in the short - term; bonds may experience short - term shock and correction; commodities in different sectors have different short - term trends such as shock, shock and rebound, or high - level shock. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US Geneva talks eased concerns about a US recession, and the US dollar index rebounded. Domestically, China's April exports were strong, and the joint statement boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks may rebound in the short - term, bonds may correct, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like military, humanoid robots, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market rose. With strong exports and the joint statement, short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold futures prices dropped. Trade tensions eased, the US dollar rose, and geopolitical risks decreased. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is recommended for short - term observation. [4][5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded on Monday. The Geneva talks boosted risk appetite. Currently at the peak - to - off - season transition, demand is weak, and supply may peak and decline. Short - term rebound is possible. [6] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rebounded. Steel mill profits are good, but steel demand is weakening. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term rebound is possible, but the medium - term trend is downward. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded slightly. Iron alloy demand is weakening. Supply is also decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The trade truce relieved the commodity market, and oil prices rebounded. Although still bearish overall, the extremely bearish stance has softened. [9] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed oil prices up. Supply is low, demand is being boosted, and inventory transfer and depletion are occurring. It will follow oil prices and fluctuate at a high level. [9] - **PX**: The trade truce benefited the weaving end. PX has many overhauls, and it will remain strong in the short - term. [9] - **PTA**: Tariff cancellation and upstream overhauls led to a rise in the basis. Supply is decreasing and demand is increasing, but there are some factors that may affect future trends. It may be strong in the short - term. [10][11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester chain benefited from tariff cancellation. Supply is high, but downstream demand is strong, and it will remain strong. [11] - **Short - Fiber**: The yarn mill's operation is stable, and short - fiber prices have rebounded. It will remain strong in the short - term. [11] - **Methanol**: The price in Jiangsu Taicang is strong. Supply pressure is prominent, but there is short - term price repair and medium - term downward pressure. [12] - **PP**: The domestic PP market had a weak morning and a rising afternoon. Production is high, demand is weak, and the LP spread may strengthen in the short - term. [13][14] - **LLDPE**: The PE market adjusted. With increased device overhauls, decreased inventory, and rising oil prices, the price is expected to repair in the short - term. [14] - **Urea**: The domestic urea price increased. Supply is high, but there are short - term positive factors. Future trends depend on export policies. [15] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks boosted market sentiment. Supply - side processing fees are falling, and demand may be boosted by tariff cuts. Short - term price is volatile, and mid - term short - selling opportunities may be sought. [16] - **Aluminum**: The tariff situation is complex, and it is recommended to close long positions on rebounds and look for short - selling opportunities later. [16] - **Tin**: Supply may increase as mines are expected to resume production. Demand is entering the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile with risks from production resumption and weakening demand. [17]

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 我们在25.4.7 《"事缓则圆"后，当前如何应对？》 提示，部分投资者仍然对"新投资范式"认识不足，对 特朗普关税的底层逻辑存在误解。特朗普政府企图通过非常规手段化解当前全球供给与需求失衡，世界秩序重塑 的底层逻辑不可逆。 ● 全球化进程中，G2在贸易/生产/债务的失衡加剧。 全球经济一体化版图中，美国的定位更多作为全球最大的消 费国，而中国的定位更多作为全球最大的生产国。 一方面，随着中国加入世贸组织，全球化不断深入过程中， G2在贸易/生产/债务方面的失衡也在加剧。 美国过度依靠债务扩张创造需求—>过度消费—>经常项目持续逆差/ 对外债务持续积累—>制造业空心化/供应链的安全问题催生；而中国依靠强大的生产制造能力出口商品—>经常 项目持续顺差/丰富积累外汇储蓄。 然而，当全球主要经济体告别高增长时代，世界版图中的"蛋糕"更难做 大，"效率"的重要性开始让渡于"分配"，逆全球化程度加深将成为长期主题。 ● 世界秩序如何重塑，海湖庄园协议见一叶而知秋？ 概括而言，"海湖庄园 ...

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 报告正文 世界秩序重塑构成新投资范式的底层逻辑 引言 我们在25.4.7 《"事缓则圆"后，当前如何应对？》 提示，特朗普政府企图通过非常规手段化解当前全球供 给与需求失衡，世界秩序重塑的底层逻辑不可逆。部分投资者仍然对"新投资范式"认识不足，对特朗普关税的底 层逻辑存在误解。 ● 引言： 我们在25.4.7 《"事缓则圆"后，当前如何应对？》 提示，部分投资者仍然对"新投资范式"认识不足，对 特朗普关税的底层逻辑存在误解。特朗普政府企图通过非常规手段化解当前全球供给与需求失衡，世界秩序重塑 的底层逻辑不可逆。 ● 全球化进程中，G2在贸易/生产/债务的失衡加剧。 全球经济一体化版图中，美国的定位更多作为全球最大的消 费国，而中国的定位更多作为全球最大的生产国。 一方面，随着中国加入世贸组织，全球化不断深入过程中， G2在贸易/生产/债务方面的失衡也在加剧。 美国过度依靠债务扩张创造需求—>过度消费—>经常项目持续逆差/ 对外债务持续积累—>制造业空心化/供应链的安全问题催生；而中国依靠 ...

花旗集团分析师表示，如果美国与伊朗就核问题达成协议，供应增加将导致布伦特原油期货价格降至每 桶50美元。如果双方不能达成协议，布伦特原油期货价格可能会升至每桶70美元以上。 （文章来源：新华财经） 消息面上，美国总统特朗普8日在白宫宣布，美国与英国达成一项新的贸易协议，部分撤回特定领域的 关税，进一步扩大双方产品的市场准入。然而，协议的诸多细节尚待敲定，美方此前加征的10%所 谓"对等关税"也未取消。 瑞士Sparta大宗商品分析师尼尔·克罗斯比（Neil Crosby）表示，油价很大程度上仍然受到消息面的驱 动。虽然市场对关税紧张会缓解抱有一些期待，但是石油市场上仍需关注欧佩克+在6月份以后会继续 加快退出自愿减产。 美国里特布施同仁公司（Ritterbusch & Associates）总裁吉姆·里特布施（Jim Ritterbusch)表示，过去几 年推动油价涨跌的全球风险溢价已经被关税溢价替代。 新华财经纽约5月8日电（记者刘亚南）由于市场对贸易局势紧张的担忧略有减弱，国际油价8日强势反 弹走高。 不过，投行继续调降对油价的预计。花旗集团研究部门分析师把今后三个月布伦特原油期货价格的预测 从每桶60美 ...

宏观•要闻 《民营经济促进法》出台 4月30日，十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议表决通过《民营经济促进法》出台，自2025年5月20日起施行。民促法是我国首部专门关于民营经济发展的基础性法 律，从"公平竞争""投资融资促进""科技创新"，到"规范经营""服务保障""权益保护"，民促法对民营企业发展中的重点关切予以积极回应。 商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸对话磋商情况答记者问 5月2日，商务部回应中美经贸对话磋商情况称，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方 传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。 蓝佛安：更加积极财政政策的科学设计与成功实践 5月1日出版的最新一期《求是》杂志，刊发财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安的署名文章《更加积极财政政策的科学设计与成功实践》，传递出积极财政政策设计的丰 富内容和实施重点。文章指出，2024年出台的一批有针对性的财政增量政策，是我国财政宏观调控史上的一次重大创新。具体包括一次性增加6万亿元地方专项债 务限额置换存量隐性债务，加力支持地方化解债务风险；研究发行特别国债支持国有大型商业银行补充核心一级资本，提升服 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite is rising as U.S. Treasury yields decline. In China, the economy started well in Q1, and the government will adopt more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Overseas: The U.S. President plans to set "fair" tariff prices, and a trade agreement is expected to be reached in three to four weeks. Market expectations of a缓和 in the Sino - U.S. trade war and speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The Q1 domestic economy was better than expected, and the industrial enterprise profits in March turned positive year - on - year. The Politburo meeting signaled more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the black commodity may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the energy and chemical products may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, energy metals, and biomedicine. However, the good economic start in Q1 and the expected proactive macro - policies will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market was volatile last week. Gold reached a record high and then fell back. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the ambiguity of the Fed's interest - rate cut path have increased the volatility of precious metals. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver may follow gold passively and be weaker than gold. Key economic data in the U.S. need to be monitored next week [3][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel rebounded on Friday, but the apparent consumption of five major steel products declined, and the demand may have peaked. Although there are rumors of crude steel reduction, the steel output is still rising, and the short - term steel market may fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Friday. The iron - water output is high, but there are rumors of crude steel reduction, and the supply of iron ore may increase in the second quarter. It is advisable to view the short - term iron ore market as a range - bound one and pay attention to the peak of iron - water output [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the supply is declining. The short - term prices of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price will remain in a narrow - range shock in the short term. Although there is support from current demand and inventory reduction, the increase in supply may put pressure on the price if demand weakens later [9]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term driving factors come from the macro - environment and crude oil. The asphalt supply is at a low level, and the demand has been slightly boosted before May Day. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [9]. - **PX**: After the stabilization of crude oil prices, the PX price rebounded. It will maintain a tight - balance state and may test the pressure level, showing a volatile pattern [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up is high, but the terminal start - up is declining. The short - term price may rebound slightly but is limited by downstream conditions and will mainly fluctuate [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The obvious inventory - reduction time of ethylene glycol will be postponed, and it will maintain a weak - shock pattern [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The demand is weak, and the short - fiber will maintain a weak - level shock [12]. - **Methanol**: The supply is less than expected, and the demand has led to inventory decline before the festival. The short - term price will repair in a shock, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of PP is not prominent, but there may be a negative demand feedback in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the maintenance progress [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE downstream is basically stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Politburo meeting proposed more proactive macro - policies, and the U.S. may lower tariffs on China. The supply of copper is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season with declining inventory. The short - term market sentiment may be boosted, but the medium - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the demand is strong with declining inventory. It is advisable to take partial profits on previous long positions [14]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited due to macro risks and the news of production resumption in Wa State [14]. Agricultural Products - **U.S. Soybeans**: The net long positions of U.S. soybean funds are increasing. Weather conditions in the U.S. soybean - producing areas need to be monitored, and the price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall at the beginning of sowing [15]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot basis of domestic soybean meal has declined, and the short - term decline space of the 09 contract may be limited. It is advisable to reduce the short - position risk exposure [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil - mill start - up is low, and the soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly. The rapeseed oil is in the off - season with high inventory and weak basis [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: If the U.S. biofuel policy is favorable, the palm oil demand is expected to be stable. The production of Malaysian palm oil is increasing, and the price may fluctuate within a range and be relatively strong [17]. - **Pigs**: The market is mainly trading seasonal trends. The spot price may be under pressure before May Day, and the futures may be dominated by risk - aversion sentiment and decline [17]. - **Corn**: Drought in Henan has led to a strong rebound in the corn price. The upper limit of the price range is restricted by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. There is a possibility of the C05 contract declining to narrow the basis [18].