Core Insights - Despite the highest tariff barriers in nearly a century, inflation has not surged as economists feared, attributed to widespread exemptions and changes in trade patterns that have kept effective tariff rates lower than official figures [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Barclays' analysis shows that the average effective tariff rate in May was approximately 9%, significantly lower than the previously estimated 12% [1] - In June, only 48% of U.S. imports were actually subject to tariffs due to numerous exemptions, including critical goods like pharmaceuticals and electronics [2] - The overall effective tariff rate has been reduced due to these exemptions, which has mitigated the expected inflationary pressures [2] Group 2: Importer Behavior and Inventory Adjustments - Importers have shifted to countries with lower tariffs or domestic suppliers, resulting in a lower actual tariff rate than the headline averages [3] - Some importers, like those in the used car business, have stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, leading to a temporary decline in import volumes [3] - Analysts warn that the current low effective tariff rates may not be sustainable, with predictions of an increase to around 15% as loopholes are closed [3] Group 3: Future Price Increases and Cost Pass-Through - The White House plans to suspend the "minimum exemption" rule, which previously allowed duty-free entry for packages valued under $800 [4] - Potential future tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors could lead to greater economic impacts [5] - Companies are beginning to pass increased costs onto consumers, with some planning price hikes in response to clearer tariff outlooks [5]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole annual central bank symposium has evolved into a key platform for showcasing the policy thoughts of the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, amidst increasing political pressure and uncertain economic data [1][2] - Powell faces three core and challenging questions that will shape the potential path of the global macroeconomy and markets in the coming months [1] - The traditional economic theory that tariffs directly drive inflation is being challenged by current U.S. economic conditions, where the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth does not seem to stem from tariffs [1][2] Group 2 - There is a complex picture regarding import prices and domestic pricing strategies, with U.S. small businesses absorbing costs without raising prices, which may threaten future investment and profitability [1][2] - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to downplay the direct impact of tariffs on inflation while emphasizing data dependency to retain flexibility for the September interest rate decision [2][4] - The health of the labor market is a critical pillar of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but recent conflicting narratives about employment data create a challenging environment for Powell [2][3] Group 3 - If there is a significant labor supply shortage, businesses would typically raise wages, yet wage growth remains moderate, undermining the credibility of the labor shortage narrative [3] - Powell's stance on the labor market is crucial; he must balance acknowledging potential risks without alarming the market excessively [3][4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny due to ongoing calls for interest rate cuts from the White House, complicating Powell's decision-making process [3][4] Group 4 - The market is divided on the extent of potential interest rate cuts in September and throughout the year, reflecting high uncertainty in the economic outlook [4] - Powell is likely to use the Jackson Hole platform to reclaim the narrative on monetary policy, emphasizing the Fed's goal of maintaining economic expansion and the need for timely and flexible policy decisions [4] - The upcoming speech is seen as a balancing act for Powell, as he navigates market anxieties, economic data warnings, and the need to uphold the central bank's independence [4]

Group 1 - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a notable decline in gasoline prices helping to moderate overall inflation, while rising prices for other goods indicate the impact of the Trump administration's expansionary tariffs on consumers [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing June's 2.9% and significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2] - The prices of non-food and non-gasoline commodities increased for the second consecutive month by 0.2% in July, with specific categories like footwear experiencing a notable rise of 1.4%, the highest monthly increase in over four years [3] Group 2 - The tariffs are expected to lead to significant price increases for consumers, with projections indicating a 40% rise in shoe prices and a 38% rise in clothing prices by 2025 due to the tariffs [3][5] - Furniture and bedding prices rose by 0.9% in July, while outdoor equipment prices surged by 2.2%, marking the highest increase in over two years [3] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is anticipated to reach around 3.5% by the end of the year, driven by rising retail prices for imported goods such as furniture, toys, and appliances [5] Group 3 - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to reach 17.3%, the highest level since 1935, due to the series of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [6] - Economists expect that the high tariffs will lead to a gradual increase in prices rather than an immediate spike, indicating a slow decline in purchasing power for consumers [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on prices is expected to be more of a one-time adjustment rather than a continuous acceleration in inflation, as companies will recalibrate costs and share the burden with consumers [8]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, nominated by Trump for the Federal Reserve, is a significant figure who supports Trump's economic agenda, but his unconventional views may clash with mainstream economic thought within the Fed [1][2] Summary by Sections Nomination and Background - Miran is nominated to replace Kugler, who resigned with six months left in her term, meaning Miran's term could last until January 31, 2026, if confirmed by the Senate [1] - His non-mainstream economic views are expected to be highlighted during the Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing [1] Economic Views - Unlike most mainstream economists, Miran believes that Trump's tariffs on trade partners will not lead to inflation, suggesting that the Fed should have cut rates earlier this year as Trump has advocated [1][2] - He stated there is "no evidence" that tariffs have caused inflation, arguing that predictions of such effects have consistently failed [2] Relationship with the Federal Reserve - Miran's views align closely with Trump's unconventional economic vision, which centers on trade policy reform [2] - He has previously co-authored a paper opposing the independence of the Federal Reserve, although he has softened his stance recently, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence in a CNBC interview [3][4] Consensus and Influence - Miran's extreme views on tariffs are not shared by any current Fed officials, who acknowledge that tariffs could raise inflation to some extent [5] - If confirmed, Miran would need to build consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to align the Fed's policies with Trump's preferences, a role typically held by the Fed Chair [6] Future Prospects - Analysts suggest that Miran could be a dark horse candidate for the next Fed Chair, given his close relationship with Trump and his support for the administration's policies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of the U.S. inflation rate in July, with a notable rebound in core inflation, indicating potential implications for monetary policy and market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments [1][6][22]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value and slightly below market expectations of 2.8%. The core CPI rose by 3.1%, surpassing the previous value of 2.9% and the expected 3.0% [1][6][9]. - The core goods prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of recovery. Various core goods categories, such as furniture (+0.7% month-on-month) and shoes (+1.4% month-on-month), showed price increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs [2][13][14]. - Core services saw a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, higher than the previous 0.3% [4][18]. Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The article highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have become more evident in July, although the overall inflation rebound has been moderate due to product differentiation. Future impacts remain uncertain, with varying estimates on how quickly tariffs affect consumer prices [3][14][15]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions on monetary policy direction are noted, with some members advocating for a cautious approach while others support a shift towards a neutral interest rate stance, indicating differing views on inflation risks and economic slowdown [5][20][21]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased, with the probability rising to 93.4% from 85.9%. This led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and a rise in major stock indices, reflecting a favorable environment for emerging market assets [5][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates in September due to stable inflation data and poor employment figures [1][12] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, matching the previous month's figure, while the core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above expectations [6][12] - The market reacted positively to the CPI data, with U.S. stock futures rising and major indices opening higher [1][2] Group 2 - The CPI data indicates that housing costs were a significant driver of inflation, while energy prices fell by 1.1%, with gasoline prices decreasing by 2.2% [6][9] - Analysts believe that as long as inflation remains manageable, the Fed will have sufficient confidence to proceed with rate cuts [7][12] - The probability of a 0.25% rate cut in September has increased to 87%, up from 57% the previous month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [12] Group 3 - Economic experts note that the impact of tariffs on inflation is still unfolding, with consumers having absorbed about one-third of the tariff burden so far [10] - Predictions indicate that core CPI and core PCE inflation rates could reach 3.3% by December 2025, but may drop to 2.5% if tariff effects are excluded [10] - The upcoming Producer Price Index report and the preferred inflation indicator, the July PCE, will be released soon, which may further clarify the Fed's stance on interest rates [12]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic maintains expectations for a potential rate cut this year, emphasizing the need to monitor the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on inflation [1] - Bostic questions whether the price increases due to tariffs are a "one-time event" or will lead to more persistent structural changes, contrasting with Fed Governor Christopher Waller's view that the impact of tariffs on inflation is negligible and short-term [1] - Bostic predicts that structural changes from supply chain reconfiguration may persist until 2026, increasing the risk of prolonged inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - Recent economic data shows a significant slowdown in job growth and weak consumer spending, leading to skepticism about the Fed's continued wait-and-see approach [2] - Bostic acknowledges the unexpected nature of the July employment report but believes the U.S. economic fundamentals remain solid [2] - Concerns about a weakening labor market have been expressed by several Fed policymakers, suggesting a potential rate cut at the September meeting [2] Group 3 - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, with significant job growth slowdown [3] - The focus of current policy should balance controlling inflation and stabilizing employment, despite challenges in achieving the 2% inflation target [3] - The next Fed meeting is scheduled for September, with market attention on whether it will initiate a rate cut cycle in response to economic slowdown pressures [3]

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，关税其实已经导致美国通胀局部反弹，但季节调整方法缺陷低估过 去2个月通胀近20bp，CPI读数尚未反映通胀反弹的真实情况。中金预测CPI环比或在未来1-2个月确认上行拐 点，最快在8月12日验证。CPI同比上行周期或持续一年左右，可使用投入产出表估测通胀上升幅度。美国通胀 进入上行周期，可能干扰美联储降息节奏，让全球资产迎来新变数。 中金公司主要观点如下： 关税税率明显上升，为何美国通胀没有反弹？ 年初至今，美国平均关税税率已经由2.3%大幅升至18.4%，美国通胀却维持低位，市场普遍预期关税只会导致 温和通胀或暂时性通胀，甚至怀疑关税不会导致明显通胀。我们认为市场定价可能低估美国通胀反弹风险。有 3个关键因素，延缓了关税驱动的通胀传导。一旦这些因素发生变化，美国通胀反弹可能"虽迟终至"： 1）统计方法缺陷，低估近月通胀。美国通胀具有较强季节性，需要使用统计模型剔除季节性变化。疫情之后 通胀季节性发生突变，当前季节调整模型存在缺陷，可能累计压低5-6月通胀水平约20bp。使用修正后的季节 调整方法，美国核心CPI环比增速其实已经转为上行。其次，大量CPI商品分项（如服装 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current interest rate levels are sufficient to address the ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation, dampening market expectations for a rate cut in September [3][4]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-2 to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, continuing the decision from previous meetings this year [4][6]. - The dissenting votes from Governors Waller and Bowman marked the first instance since 1993 where two governors opposed the committee's decision [9]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, traders reduced their bets on a rate cut, with the probability of a September cut dropping from about 60% to nearly 50%, and the October cut probability falling to approximately 85% [4][5]. - The U.S. dollar surged to its highest level since May, while the S&P 500 index declined, and gold prices fell to a one-month low due to panic selling triggered by the dollar's rapid appreciation [5][10]. Economic Assessment - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in consumer spending but emphasized that consumers remain in a "robust state" [6]. - The FOMC downgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy, stating that recent indicators show a slowdown in economic activity growth during the first half of the year [7][8]. - The committee maintained that the labor market is "strong" and inflation remains "elevated," while reiterating that uncertainties are still high [8]. Future Outlook - Several policymakers believe the Fed should pause rate cuts to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, with a consensus that the current economic performance does not reflect undue pressure from restrictive policies [6][10]. - The upcoming economic data will be crucial, as a lower-than-expected inflation from tariffs or signs of labor market weakness could lead the Fed to resume easing in the fall [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting since early 2025 where rates were held steady, despite increasing pressure from the White House for rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve noted a slowdown in U.S. economic growth during the first half of the year, which could provide a basis for future rate cuts if the trend continues [3]. - The Fed emphasized high uncertainty in the economic outlook, with risks to both inflation and employment targets [3]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Two Fed governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, voted against the decision to maintain rates, advocating for an immediate 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two governors opposed a rate decision simultaneously [7]. - Their dissent reflects growing concerns about a weakening labor market, with Waller warning of stagnating job growth and Bowman expressing fears that delaying rate cuts could exacerbate recession risks [7]. Group 3: Political Pressure - President Trump has publicly pressured the Fed to implement significant rate cuts, even threatening to dismiss Chairman Powell, which has not influenced the Fed's policy direction [5][9]. - Powell's reluctance to address his future at the Fed amid ongoing political pressure signals potential tensions between the Fed and the White House [9]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, market expectations for a September rate cut significantly decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 68% to 45%, while the likelihood of maintaining rates rose to 55% [10]. - Despite the drop in rate cut expectations, U.S. stock markets showed restrained reactions, indicating investor resilience and a wait-and-see approach for further signals [12].