Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current interest rate levels are sufficient to address the ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation, dampening market expectations for a rate cut in September [3][4]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-2 to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, continuing the decision from previous meetings this year [4][6]. - The dissenting votes from Governors Waller and Bowman marked the first instance since 1993 where two governors opposed the committee's decision [9]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, traders reduced their bets on a rate cut, with the probability of a September cut dropping from about 60% to nearly 50%, and the October cut probability falling to approximately 85% [4][5]. - The U.S. dollar surged to its highest level since May, while the S&P 500 index declined, and gold prices fell to a one-month low due to panic selling triggered by the dollar's rapid appreciation [5][10]. Economic Assessment - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in consumer spending but emphasized that consumers remain in a "robust state" [6]. - The FOMC downgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy, stating that recent indicators show a slowdown in economic activity growth during the first half of the year [7][8]. - The committee maintained that the labor market is "strong" and inflation remains "elevated," while reiterating that uncertainties are still high [8]. Future Outlook - Several policymakers believe the Fed should pause rate cuts to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, with a consensus that the current economic performance does not reflect undue pressure from restrictive policies [6][10]. - The upcoming economic data will be crucial, as a lower-than-expected inflation from tariffs or signs of labor market weakness could lead the Fed to resume easing in the fall [10].

当地时间7月30日，美联储在为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变，这也是自2025年初以来 美联储第五次决定维持利率不变。 尽管面对白宫日益强烈的降息压力，美联储仍选择保持政策稳定。然而，此次会议罕见出现两名理事投下反对票的情况，这也反映出美联储内部 对利率政策的分歧正在加深。 美联储维持利率不变 强调经济不确定性 △美联储总部大楼 当地时间30日，美联储在政策声明中指出，美国上半年经济增长"有所放缓"，若这一趋势持续，可能为未来降息提供依据。但同时强调"经济前景 不确定性仍然高企"，通胀和就业目标均面临风险。 美联储主席鲍威尔当天在新闻发布会上表示，目前的货币政策立场使美联储处于有利地位，能够及时对潜在的经济发展作出反应。他表示，美联 储尚未就9月利率做出任何决定，未来的政策调整将取决于"全部证据"，包括就业、通胀和经济活动数据。 鲍威尔特别提到，关税政策推高了部分商品价格，核心通胀中约30%至40%的影响可能来自关税。这一表态暗示，美联储仍在权衡关税对通胀的 长期影响，这或许是其暂缓降息的关键因素之一。 △米歇尔·鲍曼（左）；克里斯托弗·沃勒（右） 美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely watching Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, but expectations for hints of an imminent rate cut from the Federal Reserve may be disappointed. The consensus is that the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time during the upcoming meeting on July 29-30 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's rate decision will be announced on Wednesday at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Powell [2] - After this week's meeting, the Fed has three policy meetings left this year, with officials indicating a median expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025 [3] - The pricing of federal funds futures shows that investors have assigned a probability of over 60% for a rate cut in September [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Expectations - Powell may choose to maintain operational flexibility until the economic trajectory and policy path become clearer, especially with significant economic data set to be released before the September meeting [4] - The upcoming meetings will see policymakers reviewing two employment reports and additional inflation, spending, and housing data [3] Group 3: Opposition Votes and Internal Dynamics - If the Fed continues to describe the labor market as "robust," it may provoke dissent from officials concerned about the weakening job market [5] - If two Fed governors vote against the policy decision, it would mark the first time since 1993 that two governors have opposed a decision [5] Group 4: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell is likely to be questioned about his interpretation of recent inflation data, particularly regarding tariffs and their impact on prices [6] - Some officials express concern that tariffs may have a more lasting impact on inflation, despite some price increases already being observed [7][8] Group 5: Political Pressures - The press conference may address various topics, including the Fed's renovation project and whether political pressures influence policy-making [9] - Powell may also need to respond to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet's suggestion regarding a review of the Fed's non-monetary policy functions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in U.S. inflation as indicated by the June CPI data, which shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in the previous month, primarily driven by a rebound in energy prices. The Federal Reserve may need more time to assess the situation before making further decisions on interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact global financial markets in the second half of the year [1][19]. Inflation Data Summary - The June CPI year-on-year increase is 2.7%, compared to a previous value of 2.4% and market expectations of 2.6%. The month-on-month increase is 0.3%, up from 0.1% previously [2][3]. - Core CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from 2.8% previously, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5][15]. - The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI increased to 3.17% year-on-year, up from 3.03%, indicating a rise in inflation breadth and stickiness [5][6]. Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices increased by 0.9% month-on-month, with gasoline prices rebounding significantly. The impact of retail gasoline prices, which typically lag behind crude oil price fluctuations, is expected to continue into July [3][5]. - Food prices remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, driven by a rise in household food prices [5]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices rebounded to a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with various categories such as furniture and appliances showing significant increases. However, prices for clothing and vehicles remain below trend lines [10][11]. - Core services saw a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with super core services (excluding housing) also showing a rebound, indicating some recovery in demand [15][16]. Impact of Tariffs - The article highlights that tariffs are beginning to show an impact on inflation, but the effect is currently moderate. The expected overall impact of tariffs on inflation is estimated to be around 80 basis points [17][18]. - Companies are employing various strategies to mitigate tariff costs, including price adjustments, renegotiating with suppliers, and diversifying supply chains [14][18]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the moderate inflation impact and the weakening job market before making decisions on interest rate cuts. The consensus is leaning towards a potential rate cut in the fourth quarter of the year [17][20]. - Recent comments from key Fed officials suggest a more dovish stance, indicating that even if inflation rises due to tariffs, it may not delay rate cuts [20]. Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market has shown mixed performance, with technology stocks benefiting from certain market expectations, while financial stocks have faced adjustments due to disappointing earnings reports [21].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. June CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6% and up from 2.4% in the previous month [1] - Core CPI for June increased by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but slightly higher than the previous value of 2.8% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is estimated at 62%, with expectations of nearly two cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 2: Smartphone Market in China - In Q2 2025, China's smartphone market shipments declined by 4% year-on-year, ending six consecutive quarters of growth, with total shipments at 69 million units [3] - Huawei regained the top position with 12.5 million units shipped, holding an 18.1% market share, while other major brands like Vivo, OPPO, and Apple saw declines in shipments [3][4] - The decline in shipments is attributed to cautious market sentiment and the end of government subsidies, leading manufacturers to reduce inventory pressure [4] Group 3: Local Asset Management Companies - The Financial Regulatory Bureau released new regulations for local asset management companies (AMCs) to clarify business scope and improve risk management [5][6] - The regulations aim to prevent AMCs from engaging in activities that could increase financial risks, such as facilitating new hidden debts [7] - The focus is on ensuring AMCs serve local economies effectively while adhering to defined operational boundaries [6][7] Group 4: Geely's Acquisition of Zeekr - Geely announced the acquisition of all remaining shares of Zeekr, with a total cash consideration of approximately $2.399 billion [8] - Zeekr is projected to achieve revenues of 75.913 billion yuan in 2024, a 46.9% increase year-on-year, while its net loss is expected to narrow by 29.9% [8] - The acquisition is part of Geely's strategy to consolidate its electric vehicle brands and reduce internal competition [9] Group 5: Apple’s Foldable iPhone Development - Apple has decided to use Samsung's display technology for its first foldable iPhone, moving away from in-house development due to slow progress [10][11] - The foldable iPhone is expected to enter production by late 2025, with Samsung providing the core display components [10] - This shift reflects Apple's cautious approach to emerging technologies and the need to maintain its competitive edge in the market [11] Group 6: Sam's Club Brand Strategy - Sam's Club has introduced mainstream brands like Haoliyou and Weilong, causing dissatisfaction among members who expect unique product offerings [12][13] - The expansion of Sam's Club is projected to increase the number of stores significantly, with sales exceeding 5 billion USD in some locations [13] - Consumer reactions indicate that even with branding adjustments, acceptance of mainstream products may take time, challenging Sam's Club's brand positioning [14] Group 7: A-Share Market Trends - As of June 2025, the total number of A-share investors surpassed 240 million, with a significant increase in individual investors [15] - The market is transitioning towards a more mature structure, with a decline in individual investor holdings and an increase in institutional participation [16] - Recent market activity shows a lack of clear trends, with various sectors experiencing mixed performance amid ongoing adjustments [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis from Brown Brothers Harriman suggests skepticism regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data's reflection of tariff impacts on inflation, indicating that the inflationary pressure from rising tariffs remains moderate [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tariff Impact - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 2.4% in January to 20.6% as of July 14, marking the highest level since 1910 [1] Inflation Concerns - The potential for stagflation remains a significant concern, which is identified as a major factor dragging down the U.S. dollar [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. market, with a focus on the upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that is expected to show a significant increase in prices due to tariffs [1][3][4] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - The market anticipates a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the June CPI, a notable acceleration from May's 0.1% [1][3] - Core CPI is also expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, matching the overall CPI expectation [1][4] - Year-over-year core CPI is projected to be in the range of 2.8% to 3.1% [1] Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank expect the impact of tariffs to become more pronounced in the second half of the year, with differing views on whether this will lead to sustained inflation pressure [3][4] - Goldman Sachs predicts a core CPI increase of 0.23% for June, slightly below market consensus, and anticipates a core CPI annual increase of 3.1% by December 2025, excluding tariff effects [4] - Wells Fargo suggests that while inflation may rise, it is not alarming enough to concern Federal Reserve officials at this stage [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The market has already priced in an average tariff rate increase of about 10%, according to Deutsche Bank [6] - Morgan Stanley indicates that the risk-reward for the CPI data leans towards an upside surprise, but significant market reactions may not occur until the next month [8] - The S&P 500 index is expected to react variably based on the core CPI growth, with potential declines if the growth exceeds certain thresholds [8]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports the idea of considering a rate cut in July, stating that current monetary policy is "too tight" and that tariffs have not significantly increased inflation, which could justify a rate reduction [1] - The June non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market that may influence the Fed's decision to delay rate cuts [1] - There is a division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, with some members suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be short-term or not severe, while others believe that inflation risks still exist [4] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Alberto M. Musalem expressed uncertainty about the long-term effects of tariffs on inflation, emphasizing that the determination of consumer costs and the impact on intermediate goods will take time to assess [2] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that tariffs might have a one-time effect on inflation, and she anticipates that the Fed may consider two rate cuts this year, with September being a potential opportunity [4] - The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 93.3% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in July, while there is a 6.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 64.5% probability of a cut in September [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have differing views on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with San Francisco Fed President Daly suggesting that tariffs may not have a lasting effect on inflation [1][2] - Daly believes that some companies are negotiating to share tariff costs, which may prevent significant price increases for consumers [2] - The U.S. economy is in good shape, with growth and consumer spending slowing but not weakening, and inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Musalem emphasized the need for caution regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, stating that the impact of tariffs on inflation may take time to manifest [2][3] - Musalem noted that while the impact of tariffs on inflation has not been significant so far, it is expected to become more apparent in the coming months [2] - There is a growing internal division within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a potential cut in July while others remain cautious [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions, primarily influenced by differing opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A majority of officials lean towards a potential interest rate cut later this year, but there is a notable faction that believes current inflation levels are still far from the 2% target, which does not justify an immediate rate cut [3]. - The FOMC has maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, with 10 out of 19 officials predicting two rate cuts within the year, while 7 believe there will be no cuts until 2025 [3]. Economic Data and Risks - Current economic data has not provided sufficient signals for action, with ongoing risks related to inflation and a weak labor market [5]. - There is a lack of consensus on the impact of tariffs, with opinions ranging from minimal effects to concerns about long-term implications [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a likelihood of rate cuts in September and December, as investors await key economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rates [7]. - The Federal Reserve is also considering enhancing policy communication strategies to clarify its economic forecasts and analyses [7]. Overall Sentiment - The prevailing sentiment among Federal Reserve officials is one of caution, emphasizing patience over aggressive action in response to economic data [8].