Group 1 - The China Securities Subdivision Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) has seen a strong increase of 2.15%, with constituent stocks such as Zijin Mining (601899) rising by 5.44% and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) by 5.16% [1] - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) has also increased by 2.08%, with a latest price of 0.93 yuan, and has accumulated a rise of 2.35% over the past month [1] - The trading volume for the Nonferrous 50 ETF was 5.77% with a transaction value of 15.1285 million yuan, and the average daily transaction value over the past year was 20.6154 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The London spot gold price has risen, breaking through $3,310 per ounce, currently reported at $3,314 per ounce, influenced by a weak US dollar and escalating international geopolitical tensions [4] - Moody's has downgraded the US government's credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, ending a 106-year streak of maintaining the highest rating, which has led to a significant increase in US Treasury yields [4] - Long-term factors such as high US debt and deficit rates, potential re-inflation risks, complex global geopolitical situations, and gold purchases by multiple central banks are expected to support gold prices [4] Group 3 - There is a recommendation to focus on leading scale companies and the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) for those optimistic about the recovery of precious metals and industrial metal cycles [5] - The suggestion includes investing in off-market connections (Class A: 019164; Class C: 019165) to capture the economic recovery and interest rate easing expectations [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a bullish trend, nearing the psychological level of $3400 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market sentiment favoring safe-haven assets [1][4] - The recent U.S. economic data, including a March core PCE price index of 2.6% year-on-year and resilient April non-farm employment figures, alleviates concerns over "re-inflation" risks, providing support for gold bulls [1] - Technical analysis shows a strong bullish pattern in the gold market, with a "stair-step" breakout characteristic and a high probability of continued upward movement [4] Group 2 - The operational strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips around $3375, with a stop loss at $3365 and a target range of $3400-$3430 [4] - Key resistance levels are identified at $3388 and $3398, with a breakout target of $3410, while support levels are noted at $3374 and a stronger support zone between $3370-$3366 [4] - The market is expected to remain in a strong bullish trend, with a low probability of reversal in the near term [4]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 02 月 17 日 美国 1 月宏观月报：数据强劲、联储鹰派，降息仍需等待 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 杨见一 研究助理 证书:S1320523020004 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com 核心观点： 1 月美国 CPI 同比 3.0%，核心 CPI 同比 3.3%，均超过预期。美国 1 月 整体 CPI 同比增速 3.0%，预期 2.9%，前值 2.9%；环比 0.5%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.4%。核心 CPI 同比 3.3%，预期 3.1%，前值 3.2%；环比 0.4%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.2%。1 月 CPI 同环比读数均超过预期，市场担 忧的再通胀风险得到数据的"验证"，使得 2025 年首次降息的预期再次延 后。1 月通胀表现超预期主要系预期中的油价、房价上升和预期外的二手 车、医疗商品、汽车保险等超级核心分项价格走高。此外，1 月数据季调 或未充分考虑企业调整价格的季节性因素，CPI 可能被高估。后续建议关 注价格调整结束后 2 月核心 CPI 是否仍然高企 ...