Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: The US biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitical situation are both favorable [2][4]. - Soybean oil: Expected to oscillate upwards [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and domestic soybean meal futures are in an adjustment and oscillation phase [2][15]. - Soybean: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment and oscillation phase [2][15]. - Corn: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [2][18]. - Sugar: In a low - level consolidation phase [2][22]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the influence of external markets [2][26]. - Eggs: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the bullish factors in the peak season to materialize [2][33]. - Pigs: Waiting for spot price confirmation, with the cost center of long - term contracts moving down [2][35]. - Peanuts: There is support at the lower level [2][38]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil a. Fundamental Data - Palm oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 8,518 yuan/ton, up 0.85%, and 8,528 yuan/ton at night, up 0.12%. The trading volume was 655,571 lots, a decrease of 208,528 lots, and the open interest was 512,360 lots, an increase of 9,252 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean oil: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 8,084 yuan/ton, up 1.40%, and 8,098 yuan/ton at night. The trading volume was 427,311 lots, an increase of 15,543 lots, and the open interest was 585,384 lots, an increase of 19,515 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [5]. b. Macro and Industry News - The conflict between Iran and Israel may increase the export cost of Malaysian palm oil due to rising logistics and transportation costs [6][7]. - Indian officials called for the reversal of the decision to reduce the import tariff of crude palm oil by 10% [8]. - Indian refineries cancelled 65,000 tons of crude palm oil orders due to the sudden surge in Malaysian palm oil prices [9]. c. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 1; Soybean oil trend intensity: 1 [14]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean a. Fundamental Data - Soybean meal: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 during the day was 3,062 yuan/ton, up 0.03%, and 3,062 yuan/ton at night, down 0.29%. The trading volume was 864,500 tons, and the inventory was 421,400 tons [15]. - Soybean: The closing price of DCE soybean 2509 during the day was 4,258 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and 4,234 yuan/ton at night, down 0.63% [15]. b. Macro and Industry News - On June 18, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher, driven by the strong rebound of wheat. The Ukrainian parliament rejected the proposal to impose a 10% export tariff on soybeans and rapeseed [15][17]. c. Trend Intensity - Soybean meal trend intensity: 0; Soybean trend intensity: 0 (only for the daily price fluctuation of the main contract on the reporting day) [17]. 3. Corn a. Fundamental Data - The closing price of C2507 was 2,363 yuan/ton, up 0.17% during the day, and remained unchanged at night. The trading volume was 361,246 lots, an increase of 21,257 lots, and the open interest was 493,230 lots, a decrease of 62,344 lots. - The closing price of C2509 was 2,397 yuan/ton, up 0.17% during the day, and 2,399 yuan/ton at night, up 0.08%. The trading volume was 472,636 lots, an increase of 218,445 lots, and the open interest was 837,782 lots, an increase of 60,893 lots [19]. b. Macro and Industry News - The northern corn port - collection price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in other regions was stable or rising [20]. c. Trend Intensity - Corn trend intensity: 0 [21]. 4. Sugar a. Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price was 16.35 cents/pound, down 0.1 cent. The mainstream spot price was 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The futures main contract price was 5,679 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [22]. b. Macro and Industry News - Globally, the USDA expects a 4.73% increase in production in the 25/26 season. In Brazil, exports in May decreased by 20% year - on - year. In India, the 24/25 season's sugar production was 25.74 million tons as of May 15. In China, imports of sugar, syrup, and premixes decreased significantly from January to April [22]. - Domestically, the CAOC expects the 24/25 season's production to be 11.15 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of May, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons [23]. c. Trend Intensity - Sugar trend intensity: 0 [25]. 5. Cotton a. Fundamental Data - The closing price of CF2509 was 13,540 yuan/ton, up 0.11% during the day, and 13,470 yuan/ton at night, down 0.52%. The trading volume was 169,609 lots, a decrease of 29,392 lots, and the open interest was 797,362 lots, an increase of 3,511 lots [26]. b. Macro and Industry News - The domestic cotton spot market was sluggish, and the cotton yarn and fabric markets were also weak. ICE cotton futures fell due to concerns about demand and good weather in the US cotton - growing areas [27]. c. Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity: - 1 [30]. 6. Eggs a. Fundamental Data - The closing price of egg 2507 was 2,956 yuan/500 kg, up 3.10%, and the trading volume was 43,139 lots, with the open interest decreasing by 8,723 lots. - The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,691 yuan/500 kg, up 0.85%, and the trading volume was 17,581 lots, with the open interest decreasing by 798 lots [33]. b. Trend Intensity - Egg trend intensity: 0 [33]. 7. Pigs a. Fundamental Data - The Henan spot price was 14,330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year. The Sichuan spot price was 13,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year. The Guangdong spot price was 15,640 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [35]. - The closing price of pig 2507 was 13,340 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year. The closing price of pig 2509 was 13,835 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year. The closing price of pig 2511 was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [35]. b. Market Logic - The current futures market is in the expectation - trading stage. The 09 contract is strong due to the expected bottoming - out and rising in July. In the long - term, the inventory cycle has its own characteristics, with an expected reverse spread structure. Short - term attention should be paid to capital sentiment [37]. c. Trend Intensity - Pig trend intensity: 0 [36]. 8. Peanuts a. Fundamental Data - The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 9,460 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The closing price of PK510 was 8,254 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The closing price of PK511 was 8,042 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [38]. b. Spot Market Focus - In most peanut - producing areas, raw material trading is almost over, mainly inventory trading. Prices in some areas are stable, and in some areas, they are slightly stronger [39]. c. Trend Intensity - Peanut trend intensity: 0 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices of various commodities, weather forecasts, supply - demand data, macroeconomic news, and fund flow information. It also provides updates on the position changes in the futures market and the impact of policies on the industry. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 01 Overnight行情 - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 08 is 3927.00, with a previous day's increase of 2.27%. Brent 08 (ICE) closed at 75.18, up 6.88% the previous day and 2.73% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil 07 closed at 73.18, up 6.27% the previous day and 1.89% overnight [1] - The latest value of the US dollar index is 98.11, up 0.24%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.1772, down 0.04% [1] 02 Spot行情 - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 8670, 8540, and 8480 respectively, with corresponding basis of 490, 360, and 300, and no daily basis change [2] - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8020, 8080, 8070, and 8020 respectively, with corresponding basis of 212, 272, 262, and 212, and basis changes of - 32, - 2, 8, and - 2 [2] 03 - US soybean - producing states are expected to have rainfall above average and high temperatures from June 18 - 22 [3] - The Midwest of the US may still receive showers this week, which is beneficial for soil moisture improvement in the western region but not conducive to field operations [5] - From June 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 662,580 tons, a 26.3% increase from the same period last month [6] - As of the week ending June 10, CBOT soybean long positions decreased by 1533 to 190383, and short positions decreased by 11982 to 119987 [7] - As of the week ending June 10, about 13% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared to 16% the previous week and 1% last year [7] - The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026, a significant increase from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 [7] 04 Macro News International News - The preliminary value of the US one - year inflation rate expectation in June is 5.1%, lower than the expected 6.4% and the previous value of 6.6% [16] - The Eurozone's seasonally - adjusted industrial output in April decreased by 2.4% month - on - month, and increased by 0.8% year - on - year [17] Domestic News - On June 13, the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.1772, down 31 points (appreciation of the RMB) [18] - As of May, M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, and M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [18] 05 Fund Flow - On June 13, 2025, the net inflow of funds in the futures market was 51.58 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 18.16 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 69.73 billion yuan in stock index futures [21] - The funds flowing into CSI 300 stock index futures were 35.81 billion yuan, and those flowing into CSI 1000 stock index futures were 18.16 billion yuan [20] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market faces significant pressure from a bumper harvest, and the domestic soybean supply pressure is also obvious, with inventory increasing and prices under pressure [4]. - The price of sugar is expected to remain weak due to factors such as the potential increase in global sugar production in the 2025/26 season and sluggish global demand [7][9]. - The oil market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and factors such as the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil, the weather in the United States, and the purchase situation in China and India need to be monitored [19][20]. - Corn prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term in the spot market and show strong oscillations in the futures market, affected by factors such as domestic supply, weather, and policy expectations [28]. - The overall supply pressure of the pig market is still evident, and prices are expected to oscillate [34][35]. - The peanut market is weak, with low spot trading volume and expected increase in new - season planting area, and short - selling is recommended for the 10 - contract peanut [38][40]. - Egg prices in the near - month 07 contract are expected to be weak, while the far - month 8 and 9 contracts may rise if the supply situation improves [48][49]. - Apple futures prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in June, supported by low inventory and potential impacts on fruit setting [54][56]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - to - long - term, but the market is subject to the uncertainty of US policies [63][64]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 External Market Conditions - CBOT soybean index fell 0.24% to 1043.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to 302 US dollars per short ton [2]. Important Information - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75%. The export inspection volume in the week ending June 5, 2025, was 547,040 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks were estimated at 351 million bushels [2]. - As of the week ending June 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, the operating rate was 63.1%, the soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons [2]. Logic Analysis - The international soybean market has a significant bumper - harvest pressure, and the domestic soybean supply pressure is obvious, with inventory increasing and prices under pressure [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: M11 - 1 positive spread. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]. Sugar External Market Conditions - ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.21 (1.27%) to 16.70 cents per pound [6]. Important Information - The FAO sugar price index in May averaged 109.4 points, down 2.9 points (2.6%) month - on - month. The 24/25 sugar - crushing season in Guangdong had a cumulative sugar production of 654,500 tons, and the industrial inventory was 0 tons [7]. Logic Analysis - Raw sugar has been dragged down by the expected bumper harvest in Brazil and broken through the support level. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain weak due to factors such as the lag in summer stocking demand and the potential increase in processing sugar supply [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: May remain weak in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oilseeds and Oils External Market Conditions - The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price decreased by 0.48% to 47.41 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price decreased by 0.15% to 3,919 ringgit per ton [14]. Important Information - Analysts' average forecasts for the 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks were 351 million bushels, and for the 2025/26 were 298 million bushels. As of June 8, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [15][17]. - As of the week ending June 6, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 372,600 tons, and the soybean oil commercial inventory was 812,700 tons [18]. Logic Analysis - The market expects the Malaysian palm oil to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in May. India has lowered the crude palm oil tax rate, and the US weather is currently good but may turn dry in the future. The domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, and the rapeseed oil supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [19]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [20][21][22]. Corn/Corn Starch External Market Changes - CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 2.1% to 433.5 cents per bushel [26]. Important Information - The CBOT corn futures fell due to good weather in the Midwest corn - producing areas and uncertain export prospects. The 2024/25 corn sales rate in Mato Grosso was 51.05%. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71%, the planting rate was 97%, and the emergence rate was 87% [27]. - On June 10, the purchase price at the northern port was 2,270 - 2,290 yuan per ton, and the corn price in the North China production area was strong [27]. Logic Analysis - The US corn planting has accelerated, and the weather is good, so the external - market corn price continues to decline. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, while the futures price will show strong oscillations [28]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The external - market 07 - contract corn will oscillate at the bottom. Wait and see for the 07 - contract corn. - Arbitrage: Conduct oscillating operations on the corn - starch spread, and widen the spread when the price is low. Hold the long - corn and short - 07 - contract corn position. - Options: Those with spot positions can consider the strategy of selling call options when the price is high [31][32]. Pigs Relevant Information - The pig price showed a rebound trend. As of the week ending June 6, the 7 - kg piglet price was 481 yuan per head, and the 50 - kg sow price was 1,626 yuan per head. On June 9, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.46 yuan per kilogram [34]. Logic Analysis - The supply pressure from the breeding side is still evident, and the overall price pressure is relatively significant due to the relatively high inventory [34]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillate mainly. - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [35][36]. Peanuts Important Information - The peanut prices in different regions were reported. The peanut oil price was strong, while the peanut meal sales were slow. As of June 5, 2025, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 144,720 tons, and the peanut oil inventory was 40,100 tons [36][37]. Logic Analysis - The peanut spot trading volume is low, the import volume has decreased significantly, the downstream consumption is weak, and the market expects an increase in the new - season planting area [38]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell the 10 - contract peanut when the price is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the pk510 - C - 8800 options [40][41][42]. Eggs Important Information - The average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.75 yuan per catty, and that of the main egg - consuming areas was 2.95 yuan per catty. In May, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.334 billion, and the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 46.985 million [44]. - As of the week ending June 6, the national main - area egg - laying hen culling volume was 19.97 million, the national representative - area egg sales volume was 8,856 tons, the production - link inventory was 0.94 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.03 days [45][47]. Trading Logic - The near - month 07 - contract egg price is expected to be weak, while the far - month 8 and 9 contracts may rise if the supply situation improves [48]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 contracts in mid - to - late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [49]. Apples Important Information - As of May 21, 2025, the national main - area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.7085 million tons. The 2024 - 2025 season's 80 first - and second - grade apple storage profit in Qixia was 0.9 yuan per catty [52][53]. Trading Logic - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples. The 10 - contract apple futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in June [54][56]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Build long positions in the AP10 contract when the price is low. - Arbitrage: Wait and see first. - Options: Wait and see first [61]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn External Market Impact - ICE US cotton rose on Friday, with the main contract rising 0.39 (0.59%) to 65.97 cents per pound [58]. Important Information - The average temperature and rainfall in the US cotton - producing areas and the rainfall in the Indian cotton - producing areas were reported. The cotton spot trading was divided, and the sales and transaction basis were reported [59][60][62]. Trading Logic - The current trading logic is mainly macro - oriented. In the short term, the price will oscillate within a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, it may decline, but the market is subject to the uncertainty of US policies [63]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly under macro - influence. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [64][65][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term rebound for soybean meal**: With South American soybean production mostly determined, US soybean planting progressing well and future rainfall sufficient, and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increasing, the overall fundamental situation is bearish. However, there was a technical rebound, with potential short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Resistance is strong in the 3030 - 3070 yuan range in the next one to two weeks [1][3]. - **Short - term oscillation for rapeseed meal**: Current rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories at oil mills are not under pressure, but high commercial rapeseed meal inventories are bearish for the July contract. Import volume is expected to decrease in the long - term, but Sino - Canadian dialogue may affect market sentiment. The short - term adjustment space is limited [1][7]. - **Short - term rebound and consolidation for palm oil**: Domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and imports have improved. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory accumulation cycle has started. India's import increase and tariff reduction, as well as Malaysia's B20 policy, are positive factors. However, due to the inventory accumulation cycle, the strategy is to sell at high prices [1][9]. - **Short - term strength for cotton**: The US main cotton - growing areas have a moderate excellent - good rate, and future weather is favorable for production. In China, there is an increasing production expectation but the risk of high - temperature disturbances in June. Inventory reduction is faster than expected, but downstream orders are weak, and clothing export prospects have not significantly improved [1][13]. - **Rebound under pressure for red dates**: New - season jujube trees are growing well, but old - crop high inventory remains a problem. Downstream consumption is weak, and the upward driving force for the price is limited [1][15]. - **Weak operation for live pigs**: The long - term supply pressure guided by the number of breeding sows has not improved significantly. In the near - term, both group farms and farmers are increasing the slaughter volume, and the demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rebounds or conduct inter - month reverse spreads [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International situation**: South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started with a progress much higher than last year and the five - year average. Future rainfall is sufficient, and the CPC's June rainfall outlook is favorable [1][3]. - **Domestic situation**: Ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are continuously increasing. As the operation rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory accumulation cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish. The average monthly import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of June 6, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.462 million tons, and 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, with a 4.70% increase from the previous week [3]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3019 yuan/ton, up 0.30%. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but there was a technical rebound. Short - selling opportunities after the rebound can be considered, with resistance in the 3030 - 3070 yuan range in the next one to two weeks [1][2][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory situation**: As of June 6, coastal areas' main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 202,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from the previous week; rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; and unexecuted contracts were 51,000 tons, down 11,000 tons [7]. - **Supply and demand**: Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed has been harvested in May. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term import volume is expected to be low. Sino - Canadian dialogue may affect market sentiment, and the short - term adjustment space is limited [1][7]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2614 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. Attention should be paid to the risk of subsequent tariff policies [1][4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory situation**: As of June 6, 2025 (Week 23), the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 372,600 tons, up 2.36% from the previous week and down 0.67% from last year [9]. - **International factors**: India's palm oil imports in May are expected to increase by 87% to 600,000 tons, and it has reduced the import tariff on edible oils. Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 30 days of May were strong, and the B20 policy is being promoted [9]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8182 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. It is expected to be bullish at the beginning of this week, but attention should be paid to the adjustment risk after the release of Malaysia's May inventory data. The strategy is to sell at high prices due to the inventory accumulation cycle [1][8][9]. Cotton - **International situation**: The US cotton planting rate is 66%, and about 7% of the cotton - growing areas are affected by drought, which has decreased by 1%. The excellent - good rate is 49%, lower than the same - period level by 12%. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is estimated to be 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% increase year - on - year. India's southwest monsoon has stalled, and Pakistan's sown area has reached 95% of last year's, with a slight risk of production decline [11]. - **Domestic situation**: Xinjiang's cotton seedlings are mostly budding and some are blooming. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage in southern Xinjiang. The cost is expected to decrease slightly. The inventory reduction is fast, but downstream orders are weak, and clothing exports have not significantly improved [12][13]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 13495 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. ICE cotton is expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 13700 yuan [1][10][13]. Red Dates - **Production situation**: Southern Xinjiang's jujube trees are in the full - bloom stage, and the growth is good. The 36 - sample physical inventory is 106,753 tons, 85 tons higher than the previous week and 4445 tons higher than the same period [15]. - **Market situation**: The supply in the sales area is continuous, and the demand is weak. With the increase in temperature, the demand for dried fruits is expected to decline seasonally [15]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 8910 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to weather - related price fluctuations [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - **Supply situation**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter in June is expected to decrease slightly, but the supply pressure has not significantly improved. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets in May increased, which will bring pressure in Q4. In the long - term, the reduction of breeding sows in April is not significant enough to indicate a turning point in production capacity [18]. - **Demand situation**: Terminal demand is cooling with the rise in temperature, and the support from secondary fattening is weakening [18][19]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13475 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The strategy is to sell on rebounds or conduct inter - month reverse spreads [17][18][19].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][7] Group 2: Core Views - For the apple industry, the current expectation of apple production reduction has weakened during the bagging stage, but weather still poses uncertainties. In the short - term, apple prices are expected to fluctuate. The apple market's main trend is stable, with seasonal factors and weather affecting the market [2][3] - For the红枣 industry, the current growth of jujubes is normal, and the market is in a traditional off - season with high inventory. The prices have fallen below the warehouse receipt cost of the 2024 production season. Attention should be paid to weather - related market opportunities [6][7] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,750 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous day. Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Jujube - Futures: The closing price of the jujube 2509 contract yesterday was 8,810 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton or 2.14% from the previous day. Spot: The price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The bagging work is in progress in the producing areas. Seasonal fruits are on the market, affecting apple consumption. The apple de - stocking speed has slowed compared to last year, and the inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The new - season apple production is uncertain due to previous extreme weather [2] Jujube - The jujube futures price rose significantly yesterday. The main producing areas' jujube trees are growing well. The off - season has arrived after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the inventory has slightly increased. The jujube prices have been falling under multiple factors [6] Group 5: Strategies Apple - Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider apple prices to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Jujube - Adopt a neutral strategy. Closely monitor market opportunities caused by weather disturbances [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation and accumulation of momentum. The overall fundamentals are bearish, and the bullish view is treated as a technical rebound. Short - selling opportunities after the rebound can be considered [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. Considering the possible improvement of China - Canada relations, caution is needed when chasing long positions [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound and consolidation. It is expected to maintain a bullish trend this week, but short - selling opportunities after the rebound should be noted due to the ongoing inventory accumulation cycle [1]. - **Cotton**: Weak operation. It is expected to fluctuate weakly below 70 cents in the international market, and the upward driving force of domestic cotton prices is weak in the near future [1]. - **Red Dates**: Short - term weakening. The market is expected to be weak this week, and attention should be paid to weather - related premium disturbances [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating at the bottom. The strategy is to sell high and short, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread opportunity [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: South American soybean production is basically determined, and U.S. soybean planting has started with a progress much higher than last year and the five - year average. There is sufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and the rainfall outlook for June is normal according to CPC [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are continuously increasing. As the operating rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory accumulation cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and there is a need for replenishment. The monthly average import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of May 30, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.054 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 5.8288 million tons [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.11% to 2935 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price decreased by 1.55% to 2929.14 yuan/ton. There were changes in various spreads such as basis, cross - variety spreads, and cross - term spreads [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply Situation**: Currently, oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have no pressure, but commercial rapeseed meal inventories are high, which is bearish for the July contract. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and long - term imports are expected to be low due to poor import profits from Canada. However, the possible improvement of China - Canada relations may affect the supply situation [1][4]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 3.03% to 2557 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price decreased by 0.36% to 2616.32 yuan/ton. There were changes in basis, cross - variety spreads, and cross - term spreads [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Export**: As of May 30, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 364,000 tons, a 7.47% increase from last week. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 30 days of May were strong, and India's palm oil imports increased significantly in May. India also lowered the import tariff on edible oils starting from May 30 [9][10]. - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The futures price of the main contract increased by 1.69% to 8196 yuan/ton, and the national average price increased by 2.00% to 8690 yuan/ton. The proportion of market participants looking up increased, while the proportions of those looking flat and down decreased [9]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of June 1, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 66%, and about 7% of the cotton - growing areas were affected by drought. The new - crop good - quality rate was 49%. The 2024/25 Brazilian cotton production is estimated to be 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% increase year - on - year [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well, and the new - season production is expected to reach 7.2 - 7.4 million tons. The import of cotton resources has decreased for four consecutive times, and the domestic textile industry is in the off - season with limited order rebounds [13]. - **Price and Related Data**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 0.11% to 13260 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.15% to 14558 yuan/ton. There were changes in basis, cross - term spreads, and other data [11]. Red Dates - **Production and Inventory**: The main contract decreased by 0.23% to 8625 yuan/ton. The growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is normal, and the physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 85 tons this week, still higher than the same period last year [15][16]. - **Market Situation**: The market supply in the sales area is continuous, and merchants mainly replenish for刚需. With the rise in temperature, the demand for dried fruits is expected to decline seasonally [16]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: The main contract decreased by 0.81% to 13510 yuan/ton. The supply pressure has not significantly improved, and both group farms and farmers are increasing the slaughter volume. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased significantly, and the demand is expected to decline after the festival [18][19]. - **Price and Related Data**: The national average spot price increased by 0.07% to 14650 yuan/ton. There were changes in inventory, slaughter volume, and other data [18].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 | | | | 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。豆粕前日探低回升，但短期空头格局依然占据主导， | | | | 基本面偏空，看多仅以技术性反弹对待。主力【2860，2925】 | | 菜粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比调减，5 月至 7 月菜籽进口同 | | | | 比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口 ...