Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral to bullish, suggesting to focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips [3] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards yesterday, breaking through the 14,000 integer mark. Globally, the USDA made minor adjustments to the global cotton supply and demand data this month, with both production and demand decreasing in the 2025/26 season and a slight increase in ending stocks. In the short term, ICE U.S. cotton will remain under pressure, but in the medium to long term, it is in a low - valuation range with limited further downside. Domestically, cotton production continues to increase in the 2025/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is also limited [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,884 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,060 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. In India, the cotton listing volume on December 12, 2025/26 was about 42,000 tons of lint, and the CCI auctioned about 75,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment to global cotton supply and demand data in the 25/26 season was small, with both production and demand decreasing and ending stocks slightly increasing. The U.S. cotton production increased slightly, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term ICE U.S. cotton is under pressure, and the upward drive is unclear. Domestic: Cotton production continues to increase in the 25/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is limited [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [7] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak yesterday, hitting a new low in the night session. The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - to - medium - term international sugar price rebound space is limited. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is also limited [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5207 yuan/ton, down 113 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5295 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of December 15, 2025/26, 479 sugar mills in India were in operation, 6 more than the same period last year, and the sugar production was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons or 28.34% [4] Market Analysis - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak, hitting a new low. The short - term support for the raw sugar futures price to stop falling and rebound is limited by the unchanged global sugar supply surplus pattern. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is limited [5] Strategy - Neutral. Pay attention to the impact of the capital side on the futures market, and expect low - level consolidation [7] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The price of pulp futures oscillated and closed higher yesterday. Overseas supply is disturbed, and the demand in Europe has improved to some extent. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined significantly, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price to stabilize [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5572 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5565 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mainly stable, with individual prices declining [7] Market Analysis - Overseas, there are continuous news of pulp mill shutdowns for maintenance, and the European demand has improved. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, the paper industry is in a state of overcapacity, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price [8] Strategy - Neutral. The previous bearish factors have been digested, and the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently, but the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation will limit the upward space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [9]

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：减产未明确，反弹高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕或跟随调整 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251215 | 8 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年12月15日 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 棕榈油：减产未明确，反弹高度有限 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,608 | -0.55% | 8,496 | -1.30% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,240 | -0 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-11 现货压力持续释放，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2754元/吨，较前日变动-9元/吨，幅度-0.33%；菜粕2605合约2329元/吨，较前日 变动+12元/吨，幅度+0.52%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M05+306， 较前日变动+19；江苏地区豆粕现货3030元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M05+276，较前日变动+39；广东 地区豆粕现货价格3030元/吨，较前日变动跌+30元/吨，现货基差M05+276，较前日变动+39。福建地区菜粕现货价 格2540元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM05+211，较前日变动+18。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部公布的12月供需报告显示，美国2025/26年度大豆产量预估为42.53亿蒲式耳，11月预估 为42.53亿蒲式耳；大豆播种面积预估为8110万英亩；大豆收割面积预估为8030万英亩；大豆单产预估为53蒲式耳/ 英亩；大豆出口量预估为16.35亿蒲式耳；大豆期末库存预估为2.9亿蒲式耳。巴西全国谷物出口商协 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-10 缺乏明显驱动，板块整体震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13740元/吨，较前一日变动-10元/吨，幅度-0.07%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14843元/吨，较前一日变动-4元/吨，现货基差CF01+1103，较前一日变动+6；3128B棉全国均价14999元/吨， 较前一日变动-10元/吨，现货基差CF01+1259，较前一日变动+0。 近期市场资讯，海关总署最新数据显示，2025年11月，我国出口纺织品服装238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%，环比 增加7.22%; 其中纺织品出口122.76亿美元，同比增加1.03%，环比增加9.05%；服装出口115.94亿美元，同比下降 10.86%，环比增加5.36%。 2025年1-11月，我国出口纺织品服装2677.95亿美元，同比下降1.91%; 其中纺织品出口 1300.09亿美元，同比增加1.03%；服装出口1377.87亿美元，同比下降4.4%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲 软，短期I ...

一、研究观点 农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） | 品种 | 点评 周二，玉米近月 2601 合约加速减仓，期价延续调整走势。当日，玉米 1 月合约 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 减仓 10 万手，3 月合约持仓跟随调整，玉米 5、7 月合约面临技术压力位，期价 呈现调整表现。周初华北地区玉米价格稳中偏强，华北地区基层农户售粮积极性 | | | | 整体依然偏慢，货源供应按照价格变化有所调整。企业以刚需采购为主，根据到 | | | 玉米 | 货量灵活调整价格。销区市场玉米价格整体偏弱运行。玉米期货盘面高位回落， | 震荡下行 | | | 东北产区价格松动，销区港口贸易商受到到货成本变化的影响，加上下游销售利 | | | | 润较低，高价采购玉米的意愿一般，港口报价继续窄幅下探。技术上，玉米 3、 | | | | 5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行遇阻，动力不足。短期来看， | | | | 玉米呈现技术调整要求，短线期价或将延续调整表现。 周二，CBOT 大豆跌至一个月低位，受出口担忧及南美丰产预期打压。阿根廷下 | | | | 调大豆等产品出口关税 ...

生猪产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月5日 朱迪 70015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 王力合约基左 | -82 | -240 | 155 | 64.58% | | | 生猪2605 | 11870 | 11925 | -22 | -0.46% | 元/吨 | | 生猪2601 | 11385 | 11490 | -105 | -0.91% | | | 生猪1-5价差 | -485 | -435 | -50 | -11.49% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 90529 | 91758 | -1229 | -1.34% | | | 仓单 | 85 | 0 | 85 | #DIV/0! | 主 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 11300 | 11250 | 50.0 | 0 | | | 山东 | 11250 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views - **Cotton**: The 11th USDA report adjustment is significantly bearish for the market. The short - term external market is expected to be under pressure, while the domestic market has limited upside and downside in the short - term. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be optimistic after the seasonal pressure [2][3]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar production surplus pattern suppresses the market. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but there may be a weak rebound. The medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price may hit new lows [6][7]. - **Pulp**: The pulp supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: The cotton 2601 futures contract closed at 13,640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,716 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. In October, Bangladesh's cotton imports were about 110,000 tons, a 27.5% month - on - month and 26.0% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative imports in the 2025/26 season were about 396,000 tons, a 11% year - on - year decrease [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA report increased the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season, leading to an increase in ending stocks and a shift from destocking to stockpiling. The sales pressure of US cotton has increased significantly. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded due to the decrease in the expected new cotton yield and the increase in the purchase price of seed cotton. However, there is strong hedging pressure, and the downstream demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - term, the cotton price has limited upside and downside. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to be optimistic after the seasonal pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [3]. Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: The sugar 2601 futures contract closed at 5,403 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (+0.45%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,455 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. The consulting firm StoneX predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season would be 41.5 million tons, a 3.3% increase from the 2025/26 season [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price closed higher in a volatile manner. The supply in Brazil in the second half of October was strong, and the sugar production in India in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly. The short - term export of Indian sugar is difficult to increase, and the supply pressure in the later stage of the Brazilian season is gradually weakening. The latest import volume of sugar and syrup in China is higher than expected, and the short - term supply pressure is increasing [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but the valuation is low, and there may be a weak rebound. The medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price may hit new lows [7]. Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: The pulp 2601 futures contract closed at 5,184 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.46%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,425 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,925 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The price of imported softwood pulp decreased, while the prices of imported hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp were stable [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price was weakly sorted. The European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected. The demand in Europe and the United States was weak, and the domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price. Although there was a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mill's raw material procurement was cautious [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic supply of bean meal is still relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals. Although the oil mill operating rate has increased, inventory consumption is slow, and the price is affected by the decline in CBOT soybean prices but supported by high import costs. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] - For corn, new grain is concentrated on the market, showing a slightly loose supply. However, farmers have a strong mentality of holding back sales, leading to strong port and production area prices. Attention should be paid to farmers' grain - selling and traders' shipping [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3013 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day. - Spot: Tianjin's bean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jiangsu's was 2980 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased by 2 compared to the previous day [1] - Market information: Brazil exported 336.6 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 24 million tons, a 79% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 81% of the expected area. As of November 20, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 79.9 million tons [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is loose, with slow inventory consumption. The decline in CBOT soybean prices drives the domestic bean meal price down, but high import costs provide support [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2242 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.99%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.83%) - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased compared to the previous day [4] - Market information: Brazil exported 393.9 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 28.1 million tons, a 13% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of November 20, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region was 93%. As of November 20, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 163.2 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is concentrated on the market, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to strong prices. The supply in North China is tight due to previous disasters. - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises start to increase inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term range of Zhengzhou cotton prices is limited, with a mid - to long - term optimistic outlook after seasonal pressure. For sugar, short - term downward pressure exists but with limited downside and possible weak rebounds, while the long - term outlook is not optimistic. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to insufficient fundamental improvement [2][5][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,585 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton (+0.93%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,574 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. From November 14 - 20, 2025/26 US cotton grading inspection was 270,200 tons, with 84.6% meeting ICE delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA report increased global cotton production in 2025/26, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks and a shift from destocking to restocking. US cotton sales pressure has increased. In the short term, the external market is under pressure. Domestically, after the National Day, the expected new - cotton output decreased, and the seed - cotton purchase price rose, driving up Zhengzhou cotton prices. However, there is strong hedging pressure, and the expected Xinjiang output has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, limiting the downside space [1] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short term, view cotton prices with an oscillatory mindset. In the long term, be optimistic about cotton prices after seasonal pressure and consider the opportunity to go long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] Sugar Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,370 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.32%). The sugar spot price in Yunnan Kunming was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. As of November 22 - 24, 3 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production, and 2 more are expected to start soon. By the end of November, about 31 mills are expected to be in operation. Currently, 18 mills have started production, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 129,000 tons, 268,000 tons less than last year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian supply in the second half of October was strong, and the Indian sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly, suppressing the sugar price. However, the short - term Indian exports are difficult to increase, and the Brazilian supply pressure is weakening, limiting the further decline of the raw - sugar price. In the Chinese market, the higher - than - expected imports and the start of sugar - mill production in Guangxi have increased the short - term supply pressure [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the downside. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price outlook is not optimistic [5] Pulp Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,490 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices showing an upward trend [5][6] Market Analysis - The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking was slower than expected, and the supply remained loose. The weak demand in Europe and the US and the insufficient domestic demand are the main factors suppressing the pulp price. Although there is new paper - production capacity, the effective demand is insufficient, and the paper mills' raw - material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Due to the insufficient improvement in the pulp fundamentals, the price is expected to continue low - level oscillations [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][6] Core Views - Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification, but long - term cotton prices are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [3] - Global sugar production is in a surplus pattern, and the downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited due to cost support and policy factors [4][5] - The pulp market has insufficient fundamental improvement, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,465 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,563 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1098, up 26 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,791 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1326, up 32 from the previous day [1] - India's clothing export value in October 2025 was 1.069 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.88% and a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. As of November 17, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 99.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points slower than the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA November report was bearish, increasing global cotton production, consumption, and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season. The Northern Hemisphere's new cotton is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure [2] - Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, and the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded, but the new cotton is still expected to increase in production overall. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" was not prosperous, and now it is the off - season of the textile industry, with insufficient demand support [2] Strategy - Be neutral. Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure, but in the long - term, cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The sugar 2601 contract closed at 5366 yuan/ton yesterday, down 15 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5555 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 189, down 30 from the previous day [3] - In October 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premix were 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,300 tons. From January to October 2025, the total imports were 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 963,600 tons [3] Market Analysis - Globally, the sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the market. In the short - term, the decline space of raw sugar is limited, and in the long - term, the rebound momentum is restricted [4] - In China, the new sugar season has a strong expectation of increased production, but the price has fallen to near the sugar - making cost line, and the sugar mills have the intention to support the price. The stricter syrup control policy also supports the sugar price [4] Strategy - Be neutral. The short - term supply pressure is large, and pay attention to the support at around 5350 [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The pulp 2601 contract closed at 5298 yuan/ton yesterday, down 98 yuan/ton (- 1.82%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5510 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 + 212, up 58 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 - 208, up 63 from the previous day [5] - The import wood pulp spot market price was weakly adjusted yesterday, with some brand prices in different regions falling [5] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply was still loose [6] - In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the United States was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price [6] Strategy - Be neutral. The fundamental improvement of pulp is insufficient, and pay attention to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [6]