农产品期货市场分析

Search documents
农产品日报:供需改善有限,纸浆延续弱势-20250806
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:11
Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices face constraints in the short - term and new pressure in the fourth quarter [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] - The pulp market has supply pressure and limited demand improvement. Short - term pulp prices may stay at the bottom [8] Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 points slower than last year and 1 point slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 55%, 10 points higher than last year and 8 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International cotton prices lack obvious drivers and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. Domestic cotton prices face constraints due to slow inventory drawdown, low import in the third quarter, and weak terminal demand. In the fourth quarter, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy and treat Zhengzhou cotton as under pressure and in a volatile pattern in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,697 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area is expected to be 9.1685 million hectares, down 0.6% from last month's estimate and 0.2% from 2024. The production is estimated to be 693 million tons, down 0.1% from last month's estimate and 1.9% from 2024 [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar is in a weak - volatile pattern due to Brazil's accelerated crushing and good supply prospects. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in a range in the short - term and may have a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and a long - term bearish trend [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,160 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market continued to decline, with prices of some grades in different regions falling [7] Market Analysis - The pulp market has supply pressure due to high port inventory and expected production. Demand is weak both globally and domestically, with limited improvement expected in the second half of the year [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term pulp prices to stay at the bottom [8]
农产品日报:郑棉止跌企稳,糖价弱势整理-20250805
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 05:13
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted by factors such as new cotton production expectations and weak terminal demand. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there may be a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but the price may decline when new sugar is listed in large quantities [6] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The overall fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [9][10] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,069 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,153 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton. The downstream market is in a wait - and - see state, and the yarn mill operating rate has declined slightly [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market is expected to be loose, and the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestically, the cotton inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the new cotton has a strong production increase expectation, and the terminal demand is weak [2] Strategy - Take a bearish and oscillatory view of Zhengzhou cotton in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. India's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased supply from Brazil and optimistic production estimates in the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited by import expectations, with short - term range - bound fluctuations and a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter, but price decline pressure when new sugar is listed [6] Strategy - Expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and take a bearish view in the long term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,225 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market is weak [8] Market Analysis - In the second half of 2025, the pulp supply pressure remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - The pulp market lacks positive drivers, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [10]
鸡蛋暴跌、玉米下挫
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 13:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is generally under pressure. Eggs, corn, and sugar are in a downward trend, while soybean meal has limited upward space and may face downward pressure later. Cotton is in a short - term rebound but the downward trend remains. Other products such as palm oil, pork, etc. also show different degrees of decline or unfavorable fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of eggs has plummeted, hitting a new low this year. The supply is abundant with high egg - laying hen inventory, slow old - hen culling, and increasing newly - laid hens. The demand side has a postponed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking cycle, and high - temperature weather has increased egg substitutes and affected logistics, leading to low - price selling by farmers [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is running far below the moving - average system, with a MACD death cross and a significant increase in the green column, showing a weak technical pattern [3]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 3330 and resistance at 3400 [3]. Corn - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of corn continues to decline. The regular auction of corn by the State Grain Reserve, wheat substitution, and the approaching listing of spring corn have increased supply. The demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is weak [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the 2300 integer mark, with a MACD death cross below the zero axis and the appearance of a green column, indicating a weak technical pattern [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 2274 and resistance at 2300 [4]. Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The 2509 contract of soybean meal fluctuates upward but with limited amplitude. The increase in soybean import costs provides support, and the downstream demand has slightly improved. However, the high - volume crushing of oil mills has led to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has once stood above the moving - average system, showing a slightly strong technical pattern [6]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [6]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of cotton rebounds at a low level due to short - covering, but the downward trend remains. The new - year cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the market anticipates the issuance of sliding - duty quotas. The textile industry is in a slack season with insufficient orders [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still under the pressure of the medium - term moving average, with a MACD death cross and a continuous green column, showing a weak technical pattern [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 13535 and resistance at 13715 [8]. Soybean Oil - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil fluctuates narrowly at a high level. High - volume crushing by domestic oil mills has led to continuous inventory accumulation, but exports to India have boosted prices. The supply - demand pattern remains supply - strong and demand - weak [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still above the moving - average system, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and a continuous red MACD column, showing a strong technical pattern [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position long position, with support at 8176 and resistance at 8300 [10]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of palm oil fluctuates downward. The weak fundamentals of increasing production and decreasing exports in Malaysia have pressured the price, and the domestic demand is still sluggish [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [12]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 8740 and resistance at 8850 [12]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: The 2509 contract of pigs continues to decline, hitting a one - and - a - half - month low. The supply has increased due to factors such as disease risks and incremental slaughter by group pig enterprises, while the demand is weak [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has continuously closed with negative lines, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [14]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 13770 and resistance at 14000 [14]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to decline, hitting a one - month low. The overseas market has increased production, and the domestic market is under pressure from the expected increase in imported sugar [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price has fallen below the moving - average system and expanded the downward space, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 5700 and resistance at 5750 [16]. Jujubes - **Market Situation**: The main 2601 contract of jujubes rises and then falls, fluctuating at a high level. The estimated new - jujube production is slightly lower than expected, and the consumption is in the off - season. The futures market is still in a game about the new - jujube production reduction [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price fluctuates above the moving averages, with a MACD golden cross and an enlarged red column [19]. - **Strategy**: Hold a small - position long position, with support at 10810 and resistance at 11150 [19]. Apples - **Market Situation**: The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds with the support of short - covering, but the space may be limited. The price of early - maturing apples in the west is falling, and the trading of stored apples in Shandong is slow [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract price is still under the pressure of the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [22]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with support at 7736 and resistance at 7865 [22].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250804
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:58
1. Investment Ratings - The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views 2.1. Oil and Fat Industry - Palm oil prices are under downward pressure due to declining export data and potential increases in production and inventory. Domestic palm oil is expected to have a phased adjustment, with attention on the 8800 yuan support level. - Soybean oil prices are affected by the unoptimistic outlook for US soybean exports in the fourth quarter and good weather in the US Midwest, which strengthens the expectation of a bumper harvest. However, cost support and increasing demand may limit the decline in prices and the basis quote. - Overall, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate and rise [1]. 2.2. Pig Industry - The pig spot market has stabilized, but short - term prices are still not optimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation. The spot is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, with strong resistance for the near - month 09 contract. The far - month contracts are affected by policies, and while blind short - selling is not recommended, the impact of hedging funds should be noted [3]. 2.3. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market's rise and fall are limited, and the market will maintain an interval - oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy auctions. In the long term, the supply in the third quarter is tight, which supports prices, while the supply in the fourth quarter may be loose [5]. 2.4. Sugar Industry - Internationally, there is no new driving force for the sugar market. The Brazilian sugarcane yield and quality in June decreased, and the market speculates that India may have a bumper harvest and export. The short - term price of raw sugar is expected to have a bottom, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents/pound. Domestically, the import volume in June increased, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be bearish after a rebound [8]. 2.5. Meal Industry - The US soybean market is weak due to the lack of positive news and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. Brazilian soybeans are relatively firm, and the pressure on US soybeans is significant. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is rising, and the short - term supply is sufficient. However, there are concerns about future supply after October. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10]. 2.6. Cotton Industry - The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, while the weakening of demand is weakening marginally. The short - term domestic cotton price is expected to oscillate within an interval, and the price will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. 2.7. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather affects the egg production rate. The demand for eggs is expected to first decrease and then increase this week. Next week, the egg price in some areas may decline, but then there may be an increase in demand and an upward space for the spot price. The futures price remains weak due to production capacity [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1. Price Changes - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8380 yuan, down 40 yuan (-0.48%); the futures price of Y2509 was 8192 yuan, down 48 yuan (-0.58%); the basis of Y2509 increased by 8 yuan (4.44%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 13709 (-100%). - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan, down 70 yuan (-0.78%); the futures price of P2509 was 8900 yuan, down 82 yuan (-0.91%); the basis of P2509 increased by 12 yuan (150%); the warehouse receipt remained unchanged. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan, down 80 yuan (-0.83%); the futures price of OI2509 was 9510 yuan, down 111 yuan (-1.15%); the basis of OI2509 increased by 28 yuan (52.54%); the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [1]. 3.1.2. Spread Changes - The rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 40 yuan (-3.17%); the soybean - palm oil spread increased by 30 yuan (5.26%) in the spot market and 34 yuan (4.58%) in the 2509 contract [1]. 3.2. Pig Industry 3.2.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of the main contract decreased by 220 yuan (-1.56%); the 9 - 11 spread increased by 220 (733.33%); the main contract's open interest decreased by 7850 (-14.80%). - Spot: Pig prices in various regions increased, with the largest increase of 400 yuan in Henan [3]. 3.2.2. Industry Indicators - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 200 (-0.37%); the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.1 (-0.48%); the self - breeding profit decreased by 28.7 yuan (-31.61%); the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 52.7 yuan (-282.58%); the monthly inventory of reproductive sows increased by 10,000 (0.02%) [3]. 3.3. Corn Industry 3.3.1. Corn - Futures: The price of corn 2509 decreased by 24 yuan (-1.04%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan (-15.96%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 2500 (-1.60%). - Spot: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan (-0.43%); the north - south trade profit decreased by 10 yuan (-111.11%); the import profit decreased by 29 yuan (-6.58%); the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 152 (70.70%); the trading volume increased by 50092 (3.18%) [5]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - Futures: The price of corn starch 2509 decreased by 23 yuan (-0.86%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4 yuan (-4.60%); the spread between starch and corn increased by 1 yuan (0.27%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 2573 (-100%). - Spot: The prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged; the basis increased by 23 yuan (766.67%); the profit in Shandong increased by 20 yuan (16.67%); the open interest increased by 4920 (1.79%) [5]. 3.4. Sugar Industry 3.4.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 11 yuan (-0.19%); the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 11 yuan (-0.19%); the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.11 cents (-0.67%); the 1 - 9 spread remained unchanged; the main contract's open interest decreased by 21949 (-7.92%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 47 (-0.24%). - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 20 yuan (-0.33%); the price in Kunming increased by 20 yuan (0.34%); the basis in Nanning decreased by 9 yuan (-3.66%); the basis in Kunming increased by 31 yuan (40.79%) [8]. 3.4.2. Industry Indicators - The national sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the sales volume increased by 152.10 million tons (23.07%); the industrial inventory decreased by 32.21 million tons (-9.56%); the sugar import increased by 8 million tons (160%) [8]. 3.5. Meal Industry 3.5.1. Price Changes - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged; the futures price of M2509 decreased by 10 yuan (-0.33%); the basis increased by 10 yuan (8.33%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 22562 (-100%). - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan (-0.38%); the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 36 yuan (-1.32%); the basis increased by 26 yuan (22.61%); the warehouse receipt increased by 1200. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged; the futures price of the main contract decreased by 22 yuan (-0.53%); the basis increased by 22 yuan (11.40%) [10]. 3.5.2. Spread Changes - The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 3 yuan (7.69%); the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 19 yuan (-6.19%); the oil - meal ratio decreased slightly; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased [10]. 3.6. Cotton Industry 3.6.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 105 yuan (-0.76%); the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 65 yuan (-0.47%); the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.28 cents (-0.41%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan (-26.67%); the main contract's open interest decreased by 26389 (-7.02%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 115 (-1.27%). - Spot: The price of Xinjiang 3128B decreased by 130 yuan (-0.85%); the CC Index 3128B decreased by 145 yuan (-0.94%); the FC Index M 1% decreased by 35 yuan (-0.26%) [12]. 3.6.2. Industry Indicators - The industrial inventory decreased by 2.09 million tons (-2.3%); the import volume decreased by 1 million tons (-25%); the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year; the yarn inventory days increased by 1.13 days (4.1%); the grey cloth inventory days increased by 0.63 days (1.7%) [12]. 3.7. Egg Industry 3.7.1. Price Changes - The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 48 yuan (-1.34%); the price of the egg 10 contract decreased by 55 yuan (-1.64%); the egg spot price in the production area decreased by 0.03 yuan (-0.87%); the basis increased by 20 yuan (5.41%); the 9 - 10 spread increased by 7 yuan (3.23%). - The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged; the price of culled hens increased by 0.84 yuan (17.50%); the egg - feed ratio increased by 0.35 (15.56%); the breeding profit increased by 20.65 yuan (62.61%) [15][16].
农产品日报:板块延续弱势,关注宏观扰动-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and paper pulp are all neutral [4][7][10] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the price of US cotton futures is expected to continue to fluctuate in the second half of the year. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by various factors, and the price will be under pressure in the medium and long term [3] - The global sugar market may still be in a production - increasing cycle, suppressing the long - term price of ICE raw sugar. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is supported by low domestic industrial inventory, but the upper space is limited, and the price will face downward pressure in the new season [7] - The supply of paper pulp in the second half of the year still has pressure, and the improvement of terminal demand is limited. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9] Market News and Important Data Cotton - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,650 yuan/ton, a change of - 105 yuan/ton (- 0.76%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,213 yuan/ton, a change of - 130 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,325 yuan/ton, a change of - 145 yuan/ton [1] Sugar - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5793 yuan/ton, a change of - 11 yuan/ton (- 0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton [5] Paper Pulp - The closing price of the paper pulp 2509 contract was 5232 yuan/ton, a change of - 94 yuan/ton (- 1.76%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5270 yuan/ton, a change of - 70 yuan/ton [7] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a loose supply pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate in the second half of the year. Domestically, the inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but there are many factors restricting the continuous rise of Zhengzhou cotton, and the price will be under pressure in the fourth quarter [3] Sugar - The global sugar market may be in a production - increasing cycle, suppressing the long - term price of ICE raw sugar. The short - term price has support factors, and there may be a phased rebound. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is supported by low domestic inventory, but the upper space is limited, and the price will face downward pressure in the new season [7] Paper Pulp - The supply of paper pulp in the second half of the year still has pressure, and the demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [9] Strategies Cotton - Be neutral. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be under pressure in the short term [4] Sugar - Be neutral. The short - term price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - term trend should be considered bearish [7] Paper Pulp - Be neutral. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels after the end of macro - stimulation [10]
郑棉承压回落,糖价延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply - loose pattern. Zhengzhou cotton prices are restricted in their upward space, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices. Sugar prices will mainly fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term. Pulp prices are affected by supply pressure and weak demand, and it's difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 27, the budding rate of U.S. cotton was 80%, 6 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 55%, 5 percentage points higher than last year and the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be supply - loose. U.S. cotton prices are expected to fluctuate. Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is depleting fast, but new cotton is expected to be abundant, and terminal demand is weak. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou cotton has an upward trend, but the supply is sufficient in the new year, and the upward space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,867 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Analysts expect the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July to be 48.3 million tons (up 11.3% year - on - year), sugar production to be 3.3 million tons (up 12.5% year - on - year), and ethanol production to be 2.19 billion liters (up 2.3% year - on - year) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices. However, the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and Indian policies may lead to short - term rebounds. In China, domestic sugar sales are fast, but imports may suppress prices. New sugar listing will increase downward pressure [5] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The prices of imported wood pulp showed different trends. Some softwood pulp prices declined, some hardwood pulp prices were in a stalemate, and some chemical mechanical pulp prices increased [6] Market Analysis - Pulp prices fluctuated. The anti - involution policy boosted the market, but supply pressure remains as imports increased in the first half of 2025 and domestic production capacity will increase. Demand is weak both at home and abroad, and terminal demand improvement is limited in the second half of the year [7] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term price increases are driven by macro - sentiment, and there is a chance to short at high prices after the macro - stimulus ends [8]
农产品日报-20250729
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 11:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to oscillate weakly. The 9 - month contract has reduced positions and adjusted, while the 1 - month contract has increased positions. The supply pressure in the spot market is increasing, and the market's bullish expectation is not strong. The import of corn continues to supply the market, and the price is expected to decline [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to decline. The CBOT soybean closed lower on Monday due to favorable weather in the US. The domestic soybean meal is weak, following the decline of the outer market. The expected reduction of Argentina's tariffs and overseas procurement by Chinese feed enterprises drag down the forward price of soybean meal [1]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. The BMD palm oil continues to be weak, with production increasing and exports decreasing. The domestic oil futures prices have declined, and the inventory pressure is still there. The market is mainly oscillating due to various factors [1]. - Eggs are expected to oscillate. After a previous rebound, the egg futures corrected. The spot price declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still bearish. However, in the long - term, the current breeding is at the bottom [1][2]. - Hogs are expected to oscillate. The hog futures corrected, and the spot price continued to weaken. The supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak fundamental situation, and the main contract has returned to the oscillating pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: The 9 - month contract of corn has reduced positions, and the 1 - month contract has increased positions. The supply pressure in the spot market is increasing, especially in the 8 - 9 month period. The price in the Northeast is stable, while that in North China is slightly weak. The import corn auction has a 28%成交 rate, and the market's bullish expectation is not strong. Technically, the 9 - month contract price has returned to the 2320 - 2330 yuan range, and the price is expected to decline [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean closed lower on Monday due to good weather in the US. The US soybean good rate is 70%, higher than expected. The domestic soybean meal is weak, following the outer market. The expected reduction of Argentina's tariffs and overseas procurement by Chinese feed enterprises drag down the forward price. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading [1]. - **Oils**: The BMD palm oil is weak due to the decline of vegetable oils and concerns about increased production. From July 1 - 25, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.52% compared to the same period last month, while the export decreased by 8.53%. The domestic oil futures prices have declined, and the inventory pressure is still there. The market is mainly oscillating [1]. - **Eggs**: After a previous rebound, the egg futures corrected. The main 2509 contract opened lower and then rebounded, and then declined again. The spot price declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still bearish. However, in the long - term, the current breeding is at the bottom [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures corrected, and the spot price continued to weaken. The supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. The market is in a weak fundamental situation, and the main contract has returned to the oscillating pattern [2]. 3.2 Market Information - From July 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.08% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.10%, and the production increased by 5.52%. The export volume from July 1 - 25 is expected to be 684,308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [3]. - As of the week of July 25, the soybean crushing volume of domestic main oil mills was 2.24 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons week - on - week, 250,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year, and an increase of 450,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years [3]. - It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume of national main oil mills in July will be about 10 million tons, still at a historical high. In August, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, considering the risk of heat damage in summer, the oil mills are expected to maintain a high operating rate, and the monthly crushing volume will be about 9 million tons [4]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report presents the contract spreads and contract basis of various agricultural products, including corn, soybean, soybean meal, oil, eggs, and hogs, but does not provide specific analysis of these spreads [5][6][8][9][12][13][14][18][24][26].
板块延续震荡,关注宏观扰动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 07:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve significantly, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market. In China, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the supply is expected to be tight before the new cotton is on the market. However, the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space of cotton prices. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the global sugar market is expected to have an increased production in the new season, which restricts the rebound of the raw sugar price. In China, the domestic sugar spot price is firm due to fast sales, but the high import profit and expected increase in imports put pressure on the Zhengzhou sugar price [6] - For pulp, the short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the pulp price rebounds. The supply pressure remains in the second half of the year due to high imports and domestic capacity expansion, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. From 7.11 - 7.17, the net signing of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton was - 7416 tons, and the shipment was 41,912 tons, up 18% from the previous week. The net signing of this year's Pima cotton was 1247 tons, and the shipment was 1134 tons, down 37% from the previous week. New - year upland cotton signing was 30,073 tons, and new - year Pima cotton signing was 3946 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be supply - loose. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market. Domestically, the fast inventory reduction, delayed quota issuance, and un - priced contracts drive the Zhengzhou cotton price up. But the strong new cotton harvest expectation, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation restrict the upward space. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise due to capital influence. In the long - term, the sufficient global supply and potential policies limit the upward space of the 01 contract [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5866 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Russia, some areas are affected by drought, with 39% and 59% of beet - planting areas in Krasnodar and Rostov affected respectively [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price rebound is restricted by the expected global production increase. The domestic sugar spot price is firm, but the high import profit and expected import increase put pressure on the Zhengzhou sugar price [6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended. In the long - term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5456 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+0.78%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5360 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with some varieties having weak high - price transactions [8] Market Analysis - The short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the low - priced pulp rebounds. In terms of supply, the wood pulp imports increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic capacity expansion is expected to reduce imports in the second half. But the slow de - stocking and high port inventory mean supply pressure remains. In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also weak due to the off - season [9] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is hard to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom. Short - selling on rallies after the macro - stimulus ends is recommended [10]
郑棉延续震荡,纸浆冲高回落
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 03:05
Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply. Zhengzhou cotton prices are supported by inventory tightening before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space is restricted. In the medium - long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] - The global sugar market is expected to increase production in the new year. Zhengzhou sugar has a strong spot price due to fast sales, but there is still pressure from imported sugar, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,411 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 19, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 16.7%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous week, 3.8% slower than the same period last year. As of July 21, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 13,400 tons, a year - on - year decline of 58%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.0817 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be loose. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support Zhengzhou cotton prices, but the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upward space of the far - month 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - According to the OECD - FAO, the global sugar price is expected to decline slightly, but there are multiple uncertainties. India is expected to remain the third - largest sugar exporter, and the proportion of ethanol production in sugar production is expected to increase from 9% to 22% by 2034 [4] Market Analysis - The international sugar market is trading the expectation of global production increase, and the rebound space of raw sugar is limited. The spot price of domestic sugar is strong, but the high import profit and increasing import volume put pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,414 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Arauco coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of Russian coniferous pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price was strong, but the high - price transactions were not smooth. The prices of some grades of coniferous, broad - leaf, and other pulps increased, but the downstream procurement volume did not increase significantly [6] Market Analysis - The pulp price rebounded in the short term due to the anti - involution policy, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation [8]
广发期货农产品日报-20250724
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:30
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report 2.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Due to concerns about production growth and export slowdown, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may enter a shock - adjustment phase. Monitor the resistance at 4,350 ringgit. The domestic palm oil futures are expected to oscillate horizontally in the range of 9,000 - 9,100 yuan. Be wary of the risk of a pull - back if the Malaysian palm oil encounters resistance at high levels [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainties in US trade relations and expectations of a large US soybean harvest have a negative impact on CBOT soybeans and, in turn, CBOT soybean oil. However, the expected good performance of BMD palm oil due to pre - festival stocking may boost CBOT soybean oil. In the long - term, CBOT soybean oil may rise, while it is currently in a stagnant adjustment phase. In the domestic market, the spot market has slow sales, and the basis quotes are under pressure in the short - term but may be boosted in August [1]. 2.2 Sugar - Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's sugar production may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained overall considering the increasing production pattern. In the domestic market, low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, while the entry of processed sugar and expected increase in imports lead to a marginally looser supply - demand situation, suggesting a bearish view after rebounds [4]. 2.3 Corn - In the short - term, the market sentiment has recovered. Supply shortages support the futures price rebound, but the upside is limited. The policy auctions should be closely monitored. In the medium - term, tight supply, low imports, and increasing breeding consumption will support corn prices [7]. 2.4 Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate at high levels. Although the downstream industry is still weak, the rising cotton prices have driven up yarn prices. The supply of old cotton after the price increase has put some pressure on the market, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton is on the market. In the long - term, cotton prices may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [9]. 2.5 Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has reduced the egg production rate and egg weight, resulting in a shortage of large - sized eggs. The peak - season demand for eggs is starting, and the trading volume is increasing. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize [11]. 2.6 Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillating phase, supported by expected dry weather in August and improved trade expectations. In the domestic market, soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. The supply will remain high in the short - term, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, limiting the basis decline. The market sentiment is suppressed by the government's promotion of soybean meal substitution. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 2.7 Pigs - The current supply - demand situation of pigs is weak. The recent rise in the futures price is mainly driven by market sentiment. Although there may be a short - term boost in trading volume at the end and beginning of the month, the supply is expected to recover. Spot prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the upside of the near - term 09 contract is limited. The far - term contracts are more affected by policies, and it is not advisable to short blindly, but attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On July 23, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan to 8,310 yuan, and the futures price (Y2509) decreased by 2 yuan to 8,074 yuan. The basis decreased by 18 yuan to 236 yuan. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,000 yuan, and the futures price (P2509) increased by 68 yuan to 8,994 yuan. The basis decreased by 68 yuan to 6 yuan. The price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,550 yuan, and the futures price (OI509) decreased by 21 yuan to 9,456 yuan. The basis decreased by 79 yuan to 94 yuan [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 4 yuan to 44 yuan, the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil decreased by 4 yuan to 20 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 13 yuan to 53 yuan. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 20 yuan to - 690 yuan, and the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 70 yuan to - 920 yuan. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 80 yuan to 1,240 yuan, and the 2509 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 19 yuan to 1,382 yuan [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 3 yuan to 5,656 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2509 increased by 11 yuan to 5,834 yuan/ton. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.01 cents to 16.27 cents/pound. The 1 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan to - 178 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 6,050 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 40 yuan to 5,920 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning decreased by 22 yuan to - 1,590 yuan/ton, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning decreased by 28 yuan to - 385 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons compared to the previous period, with a growth rate of 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales reached 811.38 million tons, an increase of 152.10 million tons, with a growth rate of 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi reached 646.50 million tons, an increase of 28.36 million tons, with a growth rate of 4.59%. The monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 51.00 million tons, a decrease of 1.72 million tons, with a decline rate of 3.26%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate was 72.59%, an increase of 6.42 percentage points, with a growth rate of 9.70% [3]. 3.3 Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2509 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 1 yuan to 2,321 yuan, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to 39 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2 yuan to 74 yuan. The price of bulk grain in Shekou decreased by 10 yuan to 2,430 yuan. The north - south trade profit decreased by 10 yuan to - 11 yuan. The CIF price remained unchanged at 1,994 yuan, and the import profit decreased by 10 yuan to 436 yuan [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2509 increased by 7 yuan to 2,675 yuan. The spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,680 yuan, and the spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,900 yuan. The basis decreased by 7 yuan to 5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan to 49 yuan [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 45 yuan to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 35 yuan to 14,065 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.03 cents to 68.29 cents/pound. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 80 yuan to 115 yuan. The number of positions in the main contract decreased by 15,967 to 538,200, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 9,382 [9]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) decreased by 5 yuan to 15,411 yuan, and the CC Index (3128B) decreased by 6 yuan to 15,543 yuan. The FC Index (M: 1%) increased by 35 yuan to 13,728 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 28.74 million tons to 254.24 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 2.09 million tons to 88.21 million tons. The import volume decreased by 1 million tons to 3 million tons. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 0.9 million tons to 32.7 million tons. The inventory days of yarn increased by 1.13 days to 28.36 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth increased by 0.63 days to 37.24 days [9]. 3.5 Eggs - **Price Changes**: The price of the egg 09 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3,637 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 08 contract increased by 39 yuan to 3,613 yuan/500KG. The price in the egg - producing area increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin. The basis increased by 82 yuan to - 305 yuan/500KG, and the 9 - 8 spread decreased by 23 yuan to 24 yuan [11]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks decreased by 0.02 yuan to 3.88 yuan/feather, and the price of culled hens increased by 0.2 yuan to 4.80 yuan/jin. The egg - to - feed ratio increased by 0.14 to 2.25, and the breeding profit increased by 8.52 yuan to - 32.98 yuan/feather [11]. 3.6 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2,920 yuan, and the futures price (M2509) increased by 9 yuan to 3,095 yuan. The basis decreased by 9 yuan to - 175 yuan. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu was m2509 - 190. The import crushing profit for Brazilian September shipments increased by 4 yuan to 110 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 170 to 41,446 [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 2,660 yuan, and the futures price (RM2509) increased by 22 yuan to 2,758 yuan. The basis decreased by 12 yuan to - 98 yuan. The spot basis quote in Guangdong was rm09 - 130. The import crushing profit for Canadian November shipments increased by 7 yuan to 303 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 0 [14]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan, and the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 15 yuan to 4,217 yuan. The basis increased by 15 yuan to - 257 yuan. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,660 yuan, and the futures price of the main soybean contract (No. 2) increased by 1 yuan to 3,724 yuan. The basis decreased by 1 yuan to - 64 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 162 to 14,522 [14]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 3 yuan to - 21 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal increased by 15 yuan to 314 yuan. The oil - to - meal ratio of the spot decreased by 0.007 to 2.85, and the oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.008 to 2.61. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan to 260 yuan, and the 2509 spread decreased by 13 yuan to 337 yuan [14]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the main pig contract decreased by 310 yuan to - 290 yuan. The price of the 2511 contract increased by 340 yuan to 14,300 yuan, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 210 yuan to 14,590 yuan. The 9 - 11 spread decreased by 130 yuan to 290 yuan. The number of positions in the main contract increased by 7,482 to 67,303, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 284 [16]. - **Spot Market**: The price of pigs in Henan decreased by 100 yuan to 14,300 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 14,450 yuan/ton. The price in Sichuan decreased by 50 yuan to 13,650 yuan/ton, and the price in Liaoning decreased by 150 yuan to 14,050 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong decreased by 200 yuan to 15,740 yuan/ton, and the price in Hunan decreased by 100 yuan to 14,110 yuan/ton. The price in Hebei decreased by 150 yuan to 14,350 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 37 to 133,568, the weekly price of white - striped pigs decreased by 0.2 yuan to 20.63 yuan, the weekly price of piglets remained unchanged at 26.00 yuan/kg, and the weekly price of sows remained unchanged at 32.52 yuan/kg. The weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.2 kg to 128.83 kg. The weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 43 yuan to 91 yuan/head, and the weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding decreased by 50.3 yuan to - 19 yuan/head. The monthly number of reproductive sows increased by 40,000 to 4,042 million [16].