Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As the Brazilian soybean harvest progresses, the CNF premium in Brazil is expected to reflect the selling pressure from a bumper harvest. In Argentina, the weather has been dry recently, so the subsequent weather conditions need to be monitored. In the short - term, the 105 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still at a high level, and the de - stocking speed before the Spring Festival is expected to accelerate. The soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises has increased slightly. Recently, the trading volume of far - month soybean meal has increased, and the提货 performance is normal. Due to the easing of China - Canada relations, the price of rapeseed meal has dropped, reducing the feeding cost - effectiveness of soybean meal [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Data - China's port soybean inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills are presented in a graphical form, showing their trends over the years from 2019 to 2026 [6][7][8] Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 600, and the spread of the main contract on the futures market is 497. The 2025 soybean CNF premium and the import soybean gross profit are also shown, including data from different months in Brazil [14] International Data - As of January 17th, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 2.3%, compared with 0.6% last week, 1.2% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 3.2%. The expected shipment volume in Brazil in January is higher than last year. As of January 14th, the soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 93.9%, slightly behind the same period last year. The proportion of soybean crops in good condition was 61% (65% last week, 38% in the same period last year). The weather in Argentina has been dry since January, and the excellent - good rate of soybeans has declined [12] Basis Data - On January 21st, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Zhangjiagang was 495 in Dalian (up 11), 435 in Tianjin (up 11), 395 in Rizhao (up 11), 355 in Zhangjiagang (down 9), 355 in Dongguan, 415 in Zhanjiang (up 11), and 415 in Fangchenggang (up 11). The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 214 (up 16). M3 - 5 was 327 (up 10), and RM5 - 9 was - 38 (up 15) [5] 开机 and压榨情况 - The开机 rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented in a graphical form, showing their trends over the years from 2020 to 2026 [9][10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3]. - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [5]. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal industry, although the inventory has significantly declined but remains higher than the same period last year, and the recent auctions of imported soybeans have been favorable, resulting in a relatively loose domestic supply. The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans further consolidates, and future supply pressure persists, so attention should be paid to the South American soybean harvest and U.S. soybean export situations [1][2]. - For the corn industry, as the shipping situation has improved to some extent, the inventories in the north - south ports have slightly increased. However, due to the high price in the southern port, feed enterprises have not carried out large - scale replenishment and still mainly purchase on - demand. The current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Future focus should be on spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2725 yuan/ton, a change of - 11 yuan/ton or - 0.40% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2228 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton or - 0.04% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 435, a change of + 11 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, it was 3050 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 325, a change of + 1 from the previous day. In Guangdong, it was 3060 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 335, a change of + 1 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 202, a change of + 1 from the previous day [1]. - Market Information: On January 20, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters slightly raised the export forecast for January soybeans to 379 million tons, up from 373 million tons a week ago. As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 133.7 million tons, with a market forecast of 100 - 140 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 159.3 million tons, with an initial value of 153 million tons [1]. 3.1.2. Market Analysis The soybean meal inventory has declined significantly but is still higher than last year. The good situation of imported soybean auctions has led to a relatively loose domestic supply. The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and future supply pressure continues. The focus should be on the South American soybean harvest and U.S. soybean export situations [2]. 3.1.3. Strategy The strategy is cautiously bearish [3]. 3.2. Corn 3.2.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2283 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton or + 0.13% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2551 yuan/ton, a change of + 1 yuan/ton or + 0.04% from the previous day [3]. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C03 + 62, a change of - 3 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS03 + 79, a change of - 1 from the previous day [3]. - Market Information: On January 20, as of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 148.3 million tons, with a market forecast of 100 - 140 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 150.4 million tons, with an initial value of 149 million tons [3]. 3.2.2. Market Analysis As the shipping situation has improved, the inventories in the north - south ports have slightly increased. However, due to the high price in the southern port, feed enterprises have not carried out large - scale replenishment and still mainly purchase on - demand. The current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Future focus should be on spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4]. 3.2.3. Strategy The strategy is neutral [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - For soybean meal, the inventory has declined significantly but remains above one million tons, higher than the same period last year. The good situation of imported soybean auctions has led to a relatively loose supply in the domestic market recently. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and future supply pressure will continue. Attention should be paid to the South American soybean harvest and US soybean export [2] - For corn, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking has gradually begun. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing stocks, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased. The inventory of north - south ports has also slightly increased, but the current price at the southern port is high, and feed enterprises have not carried out large - scale replenishment, still mainly purchasing on demand. The current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2727 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 1.51% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 3070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2420 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: As of January 14, the sowing of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Argentina was 93.9% complete, up from 88.3% a week ago. The 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil is expected to reach 179.28 million tons, 520,000 tons higher than the November forecast [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2281 yuan/ton, with no change; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2555 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: As of January 14, the planting area of the 2025/26 corn crop in Argentina was 91.7% of the total expected area of 7.8 million hectares, up from 89.1% a week ago. Russia's seaborne grain exports in December were 4.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total seaborne grain exports in the first half of this year dropped to nearly 30 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [3] Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: The supply in the domestic market is relatively loose. The high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and future supply pressure will continue [2] - Corn: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking has started, but feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The current inventory is lower than the historical average [4][5] Strategy - Soybean Meal: Cautiously bearish [3] - Corn: Neutral [6]

市场要闻与重要数据 农产品日报 | 2026-01-15 整体供应宽松，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2751元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，幅度-0.36%；菜粕2605合约2289元/吨，较前 日变动-25元/吨，幅度-1.08%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3160元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M05+409，较前日变动+0；江苏地区豆粕现货3080元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+329，较前日变动+10； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3090元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M05+339，较前日变动+0。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2510元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差RM05+221，较前日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，1月13日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会发布的报告显示，巴西1月大豆出口量预计为373万吨，之前一 周预计为240万吨。巴西1月豆粕出口量预计将触及182万吨，之前一周预计为164万吨。 市场分析 当前港口高库存延续，整体供应较为充足，但市场仍对于一季度大豆到港存在一定担忧，叠加近期大宗商品普涨， 近期豆粕价格偏强运行。但综合来看， ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes harvesting in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, the January USDA report is neutral. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic situation. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation, the price rose in December. After reaching a high, the short - term volatility increased, and it's recommended to wait for a callback to go long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/2025 season. In China, soybean arrivals and inventory decreased last week, and the oil mill operation rate declined. It's advisable to wait and see in the short term [13]. - For oils and fats, the current fundamental situation is weak due to high production and low exports in palm - oil producing areas and high domestic inventories. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, and prices may be near the bottom [17]. - For eggs, due to the late Spring Festival, the near - term contracts are strong. But considering the large supply and the possibility of delayed capacity reduction, it's advisable to short on rallies for near - term contracts. For far - term contracts, pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption. The spot price rose after the Winter Solstice, driving the futures to rebound. In the short term, the spot price is likely to support the near - term contracts. In the medium term, pay attention to the upside pressure and short on rallies. For far - term contracts, wait for a decline to go long [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 5299 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.88% from the previous trading day. The new - sugar quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups, and processing sugar mills also changed to varying degrees. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 21 yuan/ton [2]. - In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugar exports in December were 2.913 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, and the waiting sugar volume was 1.5823 million tons [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - Currently, the raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility that the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production will be reduced after the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil starts in April this year. Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish harvesting in February, and then international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the downward space for sugar prices is limited in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see [4]. Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was strongly volatile. The closing price of the May contract was 14,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the index and the main contract was 1160 yuan/ton [6]. - The January USDA report predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/2026 season will be 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.63%. Brazil's production is expected to remain at 4.08 million tons; India's production is reduced to 5.12 million tons; and China's production is increased to 7.51 million tons [6]. - Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year and 50,000 tons month - on - month. The export volume to China was 146,000 tons. As of January 1, the cumulative export sales of US cotton in the current year were 1.5425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 239,100 tons [8]. - As of January 9, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, the same as the previous week and 7.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons year - on - year [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The January USDA report is neutral, and the recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic situation. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation, the price rose in December. After reaching a high, the short - term volatility increased. It's advisable to wait for a callback to go long [9]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fell. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2751 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2289 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 1.08% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Dongguan and Huangpu also changed [11]. - The January USDA report predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will be 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.4%. The production of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina also has different changes. The US export volume is slightly reduced [12]. - As of January 9, the arrival volume of domestic sample soybeans was 1.52 million tons, a decrease of 730,000 tons compared with the previous week. The port inventory was 8.03 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 49.5%, 8.12 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 930,000 tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/2025 season. In China, soybean arrivals and inventory decreased last week, and the oil mill operation rate declined. It's advisable to wait and see in the short term [13]. Oils and Fats Market Information - On Wednesday, the oils and fats futures prices continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7986 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8748 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day; the closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 8949 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also changed [15]. - The January USDA report estimates that the US soybean oil consumption is 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.249 million tons compared with the December estimate and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. India's total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December was 3.05 million tons, an increase of 7.56% compared with the previous month. The production was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 5.46% compared with the previous month. The exports were 1.32 million tons, an increase of 8.52% compared with the previous month [16]. - From January 1 - 10, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 20.49% month - on - month. As of January 9, the domestic inventory of three major oils and fats was 2.08 million tons, an increase of 0.1586 million tons year - on - year and a decrease of 0.0702 million tons compared with the previous week [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Currently, high production and low exports in palm - oil producing areas lead to high inventory, and the domestic inventory of three major oils and fats is also at a relatively high level, so the current fundamental situation is weak. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, and prices may be near the bottom [17]. Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable with some increases yesterday. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.02 yuan to 3.46 yuan/jin. The egg supply was normal, and the downstream demand was relatively normal, but some were hesitant about high - priced products. It's expected that the national egg price will be stable in most areas today with some increases [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the late Spring Festival, the near - term contracts are strong. But considering the large supply and the possibility of delayed capacity reduction, it's advisable to short on rallies for near - term contracts. For far - term contracts, pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with some slight fluctuations. The average price in Henan rose 0.03 yuan to 12.99 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained at 12.88 yuan/kg. The breeding side was resistant to price cuts, but the poor sales of white - striped pigs by the slaughtering side restricted the price increase. It's expected that the national pig price will be mainly stable today, with slight increases in some northern areas and slight decreases in some eastern areas [21]. Strategy Viewpoint - Low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption. The spot price rose after the Winter Solstice, driving the futures to rebound. In the short term, the spot price is likely to support the near - term contracts. In the medium term, pay attention to the upside pressure and short on rallies. For far - term contracts, wait for a decline to go long [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [1][3][6] Core Views - The USDA report is bullish for cotton, but short - term ICE cotton is under pressure while the long - term downside is limited. Domestic cotton supply and demand are expected to be balanced, with a possible tightening of inventory at the end of the year [1] - The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. Short - term trade flow is tight, but the medium - term surplus will suppress prices. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and short - term demand may support prices [3] - Overseas pulp supply is disrupted, and there is a replenishment expectation before the Spring Festival. Domestic demand may show a mild recovery, and short - term pulp prices are expected to be slightly stronger, but the upward height depends on demand improvements and port inventory digestion [6] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,760 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton (+0.92%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,500 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,783 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton [1] - According to the USDA January report, in the 2025/26 season, the US cotton planting area was 56.345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu. The harvest area increased to 47.376 million mu, and the yield was expected to be 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. Consumption was expected to be 348,000 tons, a decrease of 5.9%, and exports were expected to be 2.656 million tons, unchanged. Ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded. Internationally, the short - term ICE cotton is under pressure due to supply and weak consumption, but the long - term downside is limited. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season. Although downstream demand has declined recently, annual consumption is expected to be high, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced with a possible inventory tightening at the end of the year [1] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term risks of high - level corrections should be watched, and long - term upward space depends on policy implementation [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.61%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - As of January 12, 2026, in the 2025/26 Thai sugar season, the cumulative cane crushing volume was 23.0955 million tons, a decrease of 5.7536 million tons (-19.94%) from the same period last year. Sugar production was 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 583,600 tons (-21.18%) [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices closed down. The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. Short - term trade flow is tight, but the medium - term surplus will suppress prices. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and short - term demand may support prices, but import pressure remains [3] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with limited downside [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,492 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,135 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Yesterday, the imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices slightly adjusted downwards [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, pulp futures prices fluctuated narrowly. Overseas pulp mills had shutdown and maintenance in late 2025. European demand continued to improve in November, while domestic demand was weak, but there was a marginal increase in demand in December, which may support pulp prices [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term pulp prices are expected to be slightly stronger, but the upward height depends on demand improvements and port inventory digestion [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal sector is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is neutral [6] 2) Core Views - For soybean meal, the current high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in downstream oil mills, combined with high import costs and low arrivals in the first quarter, make the market optimistic about near - month contracts. However, due to the expected high yield in South America and low costs, far - month contracts are relatively weak. Future attention should be paid to China's US soybean purchases and the new - season Brazilian soybean production [2] - For corn, the inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are gradually increasing but still lower than historical levels. They are mainly purchasing on - demand, and there will be some stocking demand before the Spring Festival. With the price increase, port transactions are sluggish. Although corn imports have increased significantly this month, the overall grain imports this year are still low due to previous Sino - US trade frictions. Future focus should be on spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: On the futures side, the soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2782 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.03%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract closed at 2358 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton (-2.52%). On the spot side, prices and basis in different regions changed. In December 2025, Brazil's soybean exports were 338.3 million tons, with a daily average of 15.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 68.6%. The National Grain Exporters Association of Brazil expects 2026 exports to reach a record 112 million tons, with exports to China dropping to 77 million tons [1] - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the futures side, the corn 2603 contract closed at 2266 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.80%); the corn starch 2603 contract closed at 2546 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.32%). On the spot side, prices and basis in different regions changed. In December 2025, Brazil's corn exports were 612.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.6%, and the export value was 1.33 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [3] Market Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: High inventory, high import costs, and low arrivals in the first quarter affect contract expectations. South American production and domestic procurement are key factors [2] - **Corn**: Inventory is increasing but below historical levels. There is stocking demand before the Spring Festival. Price increases affect transactions, and import and auction situations need attention [4][5] Strategy - **Soybean Meal**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Corn**: Neutral [6]

农产品日报 | 2026-01-07 油厂开机上升，豆粕延续震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2776元/吨，较前日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.80%；菜粕2605合约2390元/吨，较前 日变动+29元/吨，幅度+1.23%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3110元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差 M05+334，较前日变动-2；江苏地区豆粕现货3070元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差M05+294，较前日变动-2； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3110元/吨，较前日变动跌+40元/吨，现货基差M05+334，较前日变动+18。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2600元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM05+210，较前日变动-9。 近期市场资讯，1月5日，美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2026年1月1日当周，美国大豆出口检验 量为98万吨，此前市场预估为75-115万吨，前一周修正后为77.3万吨，初值为75万吨。12月25日止当周，美国当前 市场年度大豆出口销售净增117.77万吨，较之前一周增加19%，较前四周均值减少20%。市场预估为净增70-180万 吨。 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-06 国内供应充足，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2754元/吨，较前日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.18%；菜粕2605合约2361元/吨，较前 日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.17%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3090元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+336， 较前日变动-15；江苏地区豆粕现货3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+296，较前日变动-15；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M05+316，较前日变动-5。福建地区菜粕现货价格2580 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+219，较前日变动+4。 近期市场资讯，外媒1月3日消息：布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，截至12月30日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆播种完 成82%，高于一周前的75.5%。1月2日，美国农业部发布的月度油籽压榨报告显示，美国2025年11月大豆压榨量为 662万短吨（2.21亿蒲式耳）。2025年10月为709万短吨（2.36亿蒲式耳），2024年11月为630万短吨（2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of cotton, sugar, and pulp, providing investment strategies based on supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and market news [2][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,560 yuan/ton yesterday, up 125 yuan/ton (+0.87%) from the previous day. Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,384 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - In Pakistan, cotton area weather is mild and dry, with winter rainfall scarce. Daily arrival of seed cotton is below 1,550 tons, and total new cotton output is expected to be 1.085 - 1.124 million tons [1] Market Analysis - International: 12 - month USDA global cotton supply - demand adjustment is small. 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, with a slight increase in ending stocks. US cotton production increases, with increased inventory pressure. Short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, but long - term decline space is limited [2] - Domestic: 25/26 domestic cotton production increases significantly. As new cotton sales progress, hedging resistance weakens. Demand improves near holidays, but downstream orders decline, inventory rises, and demand weakens marginally [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Domestic cotton consumption is expected to increase due to expanded spinning capacity. With high production and consumption and low imports, supply - demand is not expected to be loose. Considering the expected decline in Xinjiang's planting area, long - term cotton prices are bullish, but short - term high - level corrections should be watched [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,258 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.10%). Spot: Guangxi Nanning price was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - India's January 2026 sugar domestic sales quota is 2.2 million tons, down 50,000 tons from January 2025 [3] Market Analysis - International: 25/26 global sugar is in surplus. Short - term decline space is limited due to Brazil's harvest and India's slow exports, but rebound momentum is restricted [4] - Domestic: 25/26 domestic sugar production increases. Import pressure is high, but syrup control is tightening, and next year's syrup and premix imports may decrease [5] Strategy - Neutral. Domestic fundamentals are bearish. Although the valuation is low, the market may bottom out again, but the decline space is limited. Short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,568 yuan/ton yesterday, up 58 yuan/ton (+1.05%). Spot: Shandong Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian softwood pulp price was 5,175 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Imported wood pulp spot market was stable. Futures fluctuated. Softwood pulp traders kept prices stable, and downstream procurement was cautious. Hardwood pulp supply was tight, and traders were reluctant to sell [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. Domtar closed Crofton paper mill, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill will be shut down temporarily [7] - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October. Domestic terminal demand is insufficient, but port inventory has declined recently, and future paper capacity expansion may support pulp prices [7] Strategy - Neutral. Overseas supply disruptions and pre - Spring Festival restocking expectations may lead to a mild recovery in domestic demand. Short - term pulp prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the increase depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [8]