Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is expected to see a surge in transactions as September coincides with the end of the quarter, despite a general decline in transaction volume since Q3 2025. The market remains in a high-level oscillation phase, with low-priced, essential demand driving sales, while high-end luxury transactions stabilize [1][15]. Transaction Volume and Trends - In August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions in 30 key cities was 9%, significantly outperforming new housing transactions, which showed a decline [2][15]. - The proportion of transactions under 2 million yuan in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has increased year-on-year, indicating that essential buyers remain the primary force in the market [3][15]. Price Segmentation - The share of transactions in the low total price segment (under 2 million yuan) has increased, with Shanghai seeing 43.78% of transactions in this category, up 6.45% year-on-year. In contrast, the mid-range segment (3-6 million yuan) has seen a decline in transaction share, reflecting increased buyer hesitation [3][4][15]. - High-end demand remains stable, with luxury properties (over 50 million yuan) in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen maintaining their market share, while Hangzhou's mid-range (8-30 million yuan) transactions have increased [4][15]. Area and Size Distribution - The majority of transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are concentrated in small-sized properties (under 90 square meters), which account for over 60% of total transactions. This trend is driven by a strategy of "price for volume" as sellers aim to move inventory quickly [8][15]. - In Hangzhou, there has been a notable increase in transactions for medium to large-sized properties (100-180 square meters), catering to buyers looking for more functional living spaces [8][15]. Regional Concentration - The transaction concentration in key districts of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has increased, with notable growth in areas like Beijing's Chaoyang and Shanghai's Yangpu districts. However, the overall concentration in major districts is decreasing, indicating a shift towards suburban and core urban areas [12][15]. Market Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to continue its high-level oscillation, with price-driven demand from essential buyers. The market's transition to a buyer's market suggests that buyers will prioritize location, amenities, and price when making purchasing decisions, potentially extending the transaction cycle for less desirable properties [15].

Core Viewpoint - After five consecutive months of decline, the second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has shown signs of recovery in August, with a total of 6,633 transactions, marking a slight decrease from July but a stable performance compared to the previous year [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In August, the average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in the city was 28,178 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.2% from July and a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [2]. - The total number of transactions in August was 6,633, which is higher than January and February but lower than the peak of 12,413 transactions in March [2]. - The proportion of transactions for properties priced below 2 million yuan has risen to 49.4%, indicating a strong demand from first-time buyers [2]. Group 2: Transaction Highlights - Among the top 20 transactions, 8 properties had an average price below 20,000 yuan per square meter, with the lowest being 9,082 yuan per square meter for the Yuexiu Xinghui City, which saw 23 transactions [3]. - Five newly delivered properties with less than one year of occupancy were among the top 20 transactions, indicating a resurgence in demand for quality new homes [3]. - The Jiangxiangyunlu project in Xiaoshan was particularly notable, with 31 transactions and a remarkable 520% increase from the previous month, priced at 16,294 yuan per square meter [4]. Group 3: Emerging Trends - The performance of relocation housing has been outstanding, with three such projects entering the top ten transactions in August, all being newly delivered properties [4]. - The original reconstruction community, Zhejiang Gong University New Village, recorded 14 transactions, a 75% increase from July, with an average price of 41,225 yuan per square meter [5]. - The Du Shiyuan project in Yuhang also performed well, with 13 transactions and a 160% increase from the previous month, priced at 12,959 yuan per square meter [5].

Core Viewpoint - The new housing policy aims to alleviate the difficulties faced by first-time homebuyers, stabilize the real estate market, and promote economic growth in response to a significant decline in housing sales and prices [1][2][3] Policy Background - The introduction of the new housing policy is a necessary measure following a deep adjustment in the real estate market, with national housing sales area down 8.7% and sales revenue down 12.3% in the first half of 2025 [2] - The real estate sector contributes 17.2% to GDP and supports over 40 related industries, highlighting its critical role in the economy [2] Series of Benefits - The new policy includes multiple adjustments to financing, tax, and purchase requirements, aimed at revitalizing the housing market [4] - The minimum down payment for first-time homebuyers has been reduced from 30% to 20%, with some cities allowing as low as 15% [6] - The maximum interest rate for first-time home loans has been set at 3.6%, a reduction of 1.2 percentage points from previous levels [6] - The maximum public housing loan amounts have been increased to 120 million in first-tier cities, 100 million in second-tier cities, and 80 million in third and fourth-tier cities [6] - Some cities have relaxed purchase restrictions, making it easier for new residents to qualify for home purchases [7] - The tax rate for first-time home purchases has been lowered from 1.5% to 1%, and the exemption period for value-added tax on second-hand homes has been reduced from 5 years to 2 years [9] Official Interpretations - The policy defines "first-time homebuyers" as families with no more than one home, aged 22 to 45, with income at or below the local median [10] - The policy will be implemented in phases, starting with 22 cities on July 15, 2025, and expanding to others by October 1 [10] - The application process for the new policy is straightforward, requiring basic documentation such as proof of income and housing status [11] Future Outlook - The real estate market may see a gradual easing of price controls, allowing for a potential 5% price adjustment in certain areas [16] - There will be significant investment in the long-term rental apartment market, providing more housing options for those unable to purchase homes [16] - Policies encouraging elderly housing exchanges, such as "housing for pension," are expected to release approximately 12 million housing units [16] - The trial expansion of real estate taxes is anticipated, targeting families with three or more homes [16]

Group 1 - In July, Shenzhen's real estate market showed a trend of cooling in the primary market and stabilization in the secondary market, with primary residential transactions down 18.7% month-on-month to 2,664 units, marking a 17-month low [1] - The total transaction volume for both primary and secondary residential properties in July was 7,320 units, a decrease of 5.88% from June's 7,777 units [1] - The differentiation in the primary and secondary housing markets may be influenced by the supply structure, with high prices or poor locations of new developments driving buyers towards the secondary market [1] Group 2 - The secondary residential market in Shenzhen remained stable, with transaction volumes exceeding 4,500 units for three consecutive months from May to July, indicating a strong performance during the "golden three months" of March and April [2] - In July, the recorded volume of secondary residential transactions reached 5,669 units, reflecting a 2.2% month-on-month increase, with consistent performance above 5,000 units from May to July [2] - The demand for affordable housing is being supported by first-time buyers, with 39.69% of new residential transactions in July being for properties under 90 square meters, an increase of over 2 percentage points from June [2] Group 3 - The proportion of secondary housing transactions priced below 3 million yuan increased significantly to 27.2% in July, up 3 percentage points from earlier in the year, indicating a growing demand for affordable small units [3] - Policy measures such as reduced down payment ratios and optimized standards for ordinary residential properties have lowered the barriers for first-time buyers, directly stimulating demand in the under 3 million yuan segment [3] - The increase in the share of affordable housing transactions reflects the impact of price adjustments and policy incentives on first-time homebuyers [3]

Core Insights - The real estate market in Harbin has shown a positive trend in second-hand housing transactions, with a total of 31,394 units sold in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase [1][6] - The demand for housing is primarily driven by first-time buyers, accounting for approximately 60% of transactions, while improvement-oriented buyers make up about 35% [5][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The second-hand housing transaction volume increased by approximately 16% year-on-year for a major real estate company, with the average transaction cycle shortening to 15-20 days [3][5] - The overall transaction volume in the first quarter was 13,435 units, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase, while the second quarter saw a steady performance with slight increases in April (3.47%), May (1.74%), and June (3.93%) [3][6] Group 2: Buyer Demographics - The primary buyers are young first-time homebuyers who are sensitive to total price and area, favoring smaller, lower-priced units [6][8] - Improvement-oriented buyers are more focused on housing quality and amenities, showing a significant interest in larger, high-quality units in well-managed neighborhoods [6][9] Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - Recent policy benefits, such as lower mortgage rates and tax incentives, have positively impacted the second-hand housing market, helping to stabilize transactions despite competition from new housing [8][9] - The market is experiencing increased competition due to new housing price reductions and inventory pressures, yet core areas maintain stable prices due to their superior amenities [9]

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities is experiencing a seasonal decline in activity, with a notable shift towards lower-priced properties as the primary focus for buyers, particularly among first-time homebuyers [1][18]. Market Overview - In May 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 30 key cities decreased by 10% month-on-month, while there was a slight year-on-year increase of 4%, indicating a slowdown in overall growth momentum [2]. - The market is characterized by a dual focus on first-time buyers and high-end upgrades, with a significant drop in demand for mid-range properties [6]. Buyer Behavior - First-time homebuyers remain the dominant force in the second-hand housing market, with low-priced properties (under 2 million yuan) accounting for nearly 42% of transactions in Hangzhou, reflecting a 1.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [4][9]. - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the proportion of low-priced second-hand homes continues to rise, indicating a trend of consumption downgrade among buyers [5][8]. Price Trends - The proportion of transactions for second-hand homes priced between 3 million to 6 million yuan has significantly decreased, with all segments in Shanghai showing a decline in transaction share [7]. - Conversely, the market share of low-priced properties is expanding, with Shenzhen reporting that 34.5% of transactions were for homes priced under 3 million yuan, marking a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month and a 6.0 percentage point increase year-on-year [7]. Property Size Preferences - In Beijing and Shanghai, the primary transaction size for second-hand homes is under 80 square meters, but this segment has seen a decline in market share, while the 90-120 square meter segment is gaining traction, suggesting a shift towards more spacious and functional homes [11]. - In Shenzhen, the main transaction sizes remain under 90 square meters, driven by the availability of newer, lower-priced units that meet the short-term needs of first-time buyers [11]. Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning to a buyer's market, where buyers are increasingly considering location, amenities, and price when making purchasing decisions, leading to longer transaction cycles for older, less functional properties in remote areas [18]. - The proportion of second-hand homes in first-time buyer segments with declining prices has increased, particularly in Beijing and Shanghai, where over half of the transactions in these segments involved price reductions [15].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is expected to continue a trend of stabilization with a slight decline in the short term, as evidenced by a 10% month-on-month decrease in transactions in May 2025 compared to the new housing market which saw an increase [1][22]. Group 1: Market Trends - The transaction volume of second-hand homes has been steadily declining, with a notable 10% decrease in May 2025 across 30 key cities [1]. - The proportion of transactions in the price range of 3-6 million yuan has significantly adjusted downwards, indicating a trend of consumption downgrade among first-time and upgrading buyers [2][3]. - The low-price segment continues to see an upward trend in transaction concentration, with 34.4% of transactions in Shenzhen being for properties priced under 3 million yuan, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month [3]. Group 2: Transaction Characteristics - In terms of area, the 90-120 square meter segment has seen an increase in transaction share, primarily due to its suitability for family needs, while smaller units (80 square meters and below) have experienced a decline in market share [5]. - The transaction concentration in mid-value areas is increasing, with notable growth in districts like Fengtai and Changping in Beijing, and Longgang and Longhua in Shenzhen [8][10]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - The proportion of second-hand homes with price reductions has increased in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, while Shanghai remains stable at a high level of 56% [12][16]. - The price reduction strategy has been particularly effective for budget-friendly properties, with over half of the transactions in affordable segments in Beijing and Shanghai reflecting price cuts [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to face a seasonal decline, influenced by a slowdown in demand following the peak of school district purchases and a lack of new listings, especially in the luxury segment [21][22]. - The market is transitioning to a buyer's market, where buyers are increasingly considering location, amenities, and price, leading to longer transaction cycles for less desirable properties [22].

Core Viewpoint - The new housing market in major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a strong start in 2025, with February transaction volumes leading and cumulative year-on-year growth exceeding 20% in the first two months. The driving factors for this growth vary by city [1][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first two months of 2025, the market continued to stabilize, with transaction volumes in 100 cities remaining roughly flat compared to the same period last year. However, 16 key cities showed cumulative year-on-year growth [2]. - The new housing transaction volume in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of around 30% in the first two months [3]. - The average monthly transaction volume in Shanghai and Guangzhou for the first two months of 2025 is significantly lower than the monthly averages for 2024 and 2023, while Shenzhen's average monthly transaction volume is 17% higher than that of 2023, indicating signs of market stabilization [4]. Group 2: Price Segments - In terms of transaction price segments, Guangzhou's market is driven by demand for properties priced below 2 million, while Shenzhen saw significant growth in the 2-4 million segment [6]. - In Shanghai, the high-end purchasing power remains strong, with the proportion of transactions in the 10-30 million price range increasing from 19.47% in 2024 to 22.79% in 2025, a rise of 3.32 percentage points. Conversely, the mid-range segment (6-8 million) saw the most significant decline [7]. - In Shenzhen, the proportion of transactions in the 2-4 million segment accounted for nearly 30% of total transactions, with an increase of 3.76 percentage points [7]. Group 3: Area Segments - In terms of area segments, Guangzhou saw a notable increase in the proportion of transactions for properties sized 80-90 square meters, while Shenzhen experienced significant growth in the 100-120 square meter segment [9]. - The 100-120 square meter segment in Shenzhen increased from 19.75% in 2024 to 22.75% in 2025, catering to the demand for three-bedroom units that meet the needs of buyers looking for a "one-step" upgrade [10]. Group 4: Regional Distribution - The transaction proportions in secondary core areas of Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have increased, with notable growth in Yangpu District (Shanghai), Yuexiu District (Guangzhou), and Pingshan District (Shenzhen) [12]. - For instance, the transaction proportion in Guangzhou's Yuexiu District surged from less than 1% in 2024 to 2.78% in the first two months of 2025, driven by the concentrated supply of new projects [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The short-term outlook suggests that Shanghai's new housing transactions have not yet recovered to the levels seen in 2023-2024, with future transaction volumes largely dependent on the quality of new housing supply. Shenzhen is expected to see further release of purchasing power due to new policies, while Guangzhou's current transaction growth is primarily attributed to a low base from the previous year, with sustainability still in question [15].