半导体设备自主可控是当下强确定性和弹性兼备科技主线 20251222 摘要 半导体设备行业在 2025 年经历订单增速放缓的小年后，预计 2026 年 将迎来加速增长，订单增速有望达到 50%，主要受益于全球 AI 大潮推 动的存储扩产和 AI 芯片先进制程需求。 国内存储厂商长存和长鑫正积极扩产，目标是达到全球 20%-30%的市 场占有率，每年新增产能预计接近 15 万片。同时，国内 AI 大算力芯片 需求巨大，存在显著的扩产需求，共同推动半导体设备行业增长。 半导体设备板块的估值应从关注当期利润转向关注明年订单情况，采用 PS 估值法，目前板块 PS 倍数处于合理区间。保守预测显示，部分股票 有三倍以上的增长空间。 短期内，长存和长鑫的 IPO 进展以及全球存储价格走势是值得关注的产 业催化事件。存储价格预计至少上涨至 2026 年底，将推动国内企业加 快扩产。同时，AI 大算力芯片需求及相关进口数据也需密切关注。 在选择投资标的时，应优先考虑与两存及先进制程关联度高、确定性强 的个股，如北方华创和中微公司。同时，可关注具备弹性、边际变化显 著或具有突破潜力的新兴公司，如拓荆科技和威导纳米。 Q&A 2 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor chip market is experiencing significant activity, with Kema Technology hitting the daily limit up, and the semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) rising over 4% this week, with a trading volume of 276 million yuan [1][11] - Major stocks in the semiconductor equipment sector, including Kema Technology, Shanghai Xinyang, and Aisen Co., have shown strong performance, with Kema Technology reaching the daily limit and others like Shanghai Xinyang and Aisen Co. increasing by over 17% and 16% respectively [1][14] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks the CSI semiconductor index, with nearly 60% of its components being equipment-related, and it has achieved a year-to-date increase of 54.82%, ranking first among major semiconductor indices [1][11][14] Group 2 - The rapid development of Chinese chip technology is expected to disrupt companies like Nvidia by 2026 or 2027, as highlighted by Bloomberg and supported by analysts from major financial institutions [3] - The ongoing AI infrastructure boom is driving demand for advanced chips, with a focus on 3nm and below processes, indicating a robust long-term bull market for semiconductor equipment [3][11] - Domestic chip companies are accelerating their globalization and capitalization processes, with significant IPOs such as Moore Threads and Muxi Technology marking a notable trend in the industry [4][5] Group 3 - The storage chip sector is also seeing a surge in IPO activities, with companies like Changxin Technology and Yangtze Memory Technologies planning to go public, which is expected to enhance capacity construction [5][6] - According to CFM's market outlook, there is a projected supply shortage for server eSSD and DDR5 RDIMM, with prices expected to rise significantly, indicating strong demand driven by AI [6][8] - The global semiconductor sales forecast for 2026 has been revised upwards to $975.4 billion, reflecting a recovery driven by sustained AI demand [8][11]

Group 1 - The three major indices showed mixed performance on December 18, with sectors like pharmaceuticals and commercial aerospace performing well, while the battery and semiconductor supply chains experienced a pullback [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) saw a daily decline of 1.97%, but recorded a net inflow of over 27 million yuan, achieving a total of over 33 million yuan in net inflows over two consecutive days [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the long-term bullish logic for semiconductor stocks remains intact, driven by an unprecedented AI infrastructure boom and strong inventory destocking in traditional analog chips/MCUs, suggesting semiconductor stocks could be one of the best-performing sectors in the U.S. stock market next year [3] - Omdia's research predicts that the semiconductor industry will reach revenues of $216.3 billion in Q3 2025, marking the first time quarterly revenues exceed $200 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.5%. The total annual revenue for 2025 is expected to surpass $800 billion [3] - The top four companies in the semiconductor industry by revenue in Q3 2025 are expected to be Nvidia and three major memory chip manufacturers, collectively contributing over 40% of global semiconductor revenues [3] Group 3 - According to SEMI, the total sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) is expected to reach $133 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, setting a historical high. Sales are projected to continue rising to $145 billion in 2026 and $156 billion in 2027, primarily driven by AI-related investments [4] - The semiconductor industry is transitioning from cyclical growth to structural growth driven by AI, with the professional foundry market expected to reach $171 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26% [6] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to see significant growth, with a projected 77% and 68% year-on-year increase in demand for 2026 and 2027, respectively, as the market faces a notable supply gap [4][6] Group 4 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks the CSI semiconductor index, which has over 50% exposure to semiconductor equipment, covering major players like Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, and SMIC, with the top ten holdings accounting for nearly 80% concentration [8] - As of December 18, the semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) has seen a year-to-date increase of over 55%, with a maximum increase of over 80% during the period, leading among similar semiconductor indices [9]

杭州众硅主营业务为高端化学机械平坦化抛光（CMP）设备的研发、生产及销售，并为客户提供CMP 设备的整体解决方案；该公司的主要产品为12英寸的CMP设备。中微公司称，此次交易是公司构建全 球一流半导体设备平台、强化核心技术组合完整性的战略举措之一，旨在为客户提供更具竞争力的成套 工艺解决方案。 半导体领域大事件！ 12月18日晚间，半导体设备龙头中微公司公告，公司正在筹划购买杭州众硅控股权，股票自12月19日开 市起停牌。 资料显示，杭州众硅主营业务为高端化学机械平坦化抛光（CMP）设备的研发、生产及销售，其主要 产品为12英寸的CMP设备。中微公司表示，通过本次并购，双方将形成显著的战略协同。 二级市场上，自去年9月24日以来，中微公司股价累计涨幅超过130%，最新市值为1708亿元。 中微公司拟收购杭州众硅，明起停牌 中微公司18日晚间在上交所公告，公司正在筹划通过发行股份的方式购买杭州众硅电子科技有限公司 （简称"杭州众硅"）控股权并募集配套资金。 公司表示，此次交易尚处于筹划阶段，审计、评估工作尚未完成，标的资产估值及定价尚未确定。经初 步测算，该交易不构成重大资产重组。因交易尚存在不确定性，为避免对 ...

开源证券也认为，半导体设备自主可控是当下强确定性和弹性兼备的科技主线。一是存储扩产提速，设备需求确定性强。 预计2030年中国存储产能有望提升至100万片/月（约占全球20%），未来几年年扩产规模预计超过15万片；叠加行业上行 周期，国产设备需求确定性较高。 二是先进逻辑本土化趋势明确，带动设备需求。先进逻辑资本开支未来三年年复合增长率将保持在35%以上；长期来看， 随着国产先进工艺逐步成熟，"中国为本"趋势将从成熟制程延伸至先进领域，进一步拉动设备投资。 消息面上，12月16日，国际半导体产业协会（SEMI）发布《年终总半导体设备预测报告》。 报告显示，2025年全球原始设备制造商（OEM）的半导体制造设备总销售额预计达1330亿美元，同比增长13.7%，创历史 新高；2026年、2027年有望继续攀升至1450亿和1560亿美元。增长主要由人工智能相关投资拉动，涵盖先进逻辑、存储及 先进封装技术。 从半导体设备销售额来看，数据显示，晶圆厂设备（WFE）领域（含晶圆加工、晶圆厂设施和掩膜/掩模版设备）2024年创 1040亿美元纪录后，预计2025年增长11.0%至1157亿美元（此前年中预测为1108亿美 ...

Group 1 - The electronic industry index increased by 1.36% during the week of December 8-12, 2025, with semiconductors leading the gain at 3.30% [1][2] - Optical optoelectronics and consumer electronics sectors experienced declines of 1.23% and 1.39% respectively [1][2] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] Group 2 - Major tech companies like Oracle and Broadcom reported earnings that fell short of expectations, leading to significant declines in the overseas tech market [1][2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped by 3.58%, with notable declines in stocks such as Nvidia (down 4.05%), Broadcom (down 7.77%), and Meta (down 4.33%) [1][2] - Tesla's stock increased by 0.87%, while Apple's stock saw a slight decline of 0.18% [1][2] Group 3 - The U.S. is expected to allow Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China, with a fee imposed on each chip [3] - Oracle's Q2 FY2026 earnings were below market expectations, prompting an increase in the company's full-year capital expenditure guidance by approximately $15 billion [3] - Broadcom reported Q4 revenue of $18.02 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28%, with AI semiconductor revenue projected to double to $8.2 billion [3] Group 4 - The supply-demand imbalance in the storage chip market continues, with forecasts indicating significant price increases for various types of memory chips in early 2026 [3][4] - CFM predicts that server DDR5 prices will rise over 40%, with notable increases for 96GB and above modules, and eSSD prices expected to rise by 20%-30% [3] Group 5 - The IPO progress of Changxin and the expansion of advanced logic manufacturers are highlighted as investment opportunities in semiconductor equipment [5] - Beneficiary companies include Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others involved in semiconductor equipment [5]

Summary of Key Points Overall Perspective - The report highlights that social financing (社融) increased by 2.49 trillion yuan in November 2025, exceeding market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% in social financing stock, remaining stable compared to the previous value [7][8] - The report indicates a structural differentiation in credit data, with traditional industries like real estate and infrastructure showing a decline in credit demand, while emerging industries are less reliant on bank loans [9] Industry Insights Electronics - The semiconductor equipment sector is identified as a key technology line with strong certainty and elasticity, with the semiconductor index rising by 3.30% [14] - The report notes that major overseas tech companies have underperformed, leading to a significant drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 3.58% [14] Retail - The retail sales in November 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with total retail sales amounting to 4.569 trillion yuan from January to November, reflecting a 4.0% increase year-on-year [19][20] - The report emphasizes the resilience of essential goods like grain and oil, while discretionary categories like jewelry performed relatively well [20] Real Estate - New home prices in November 2025 showed a reduced decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a larger drop compared to second and third-tier cities [24][25] - The report suggests that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at preventing further declines [28] Media - The gaming sector is expected to see increased activity due to the upcoming holiday season, with new game releases anticipated to boost revenue [30] - The report highlights the collaboration between Disney and OpenAI, which is expected to enhance the value of content IP [31][33] Pharmaceuticals - The report discusses the acquisition of a multi-element injection asset group by Zuo Li Pharmaceutical, which is expected to enrich its product structure and enhance marketing synergy [43][44] - The market for multi-element injections is projected to reach approximately 1.8 billion yuan by 2024, with continued growth expected [44] Military Industry - Hua Qin Technology is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for stealth materials due to the accelerated deployment of new stealth aircraft [48][49] - The company is also expanding into high-value areas related to aircraft engines, which is expected to create a second growth curve [50] Power Equipment and New Energy - Tian Ci Materials is recognized as a global leader in lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte production, with a projected global market share of 35.7% in 2024 [51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The semiconductor equipment sector is characterized by strong certainty and resilience, making it a key focus in technology investments [1] - The electronic industry index increased by 1.36% this week, with semiconductors leading the gains at 3.30% [3] - The U.S. is expected to allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China, while the storage supply-demand tightness continues [4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - AI edge products are experiencing explosive growth, with Google showcasing its Project Aura smart glasses and announcing hardware plans for the coming years [4] - The semiconductor industry is seeing significant revenue growth, with Broadcom reporting a 28% year-over-year increase in revenue, and AI semiconductor revenue expected to double to $8.2 billion [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor equipment investment opportunities, particularly with Changxin's IPO progress and advanced logic expansion [5] - Beneficiary stocks include Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, and others [5]

Group 1 - The storage chip sector is experiencing a price surge, with a 50% price increase in memory prices expected by early 2025, and a projected 30% increase in Q4 2024, followed by a potential 20% rise in early 2025 [3] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) has seen a net inflow of 211 million yuan over the last five trading days, with a year-to-date share increase of 96.6%, bringing its latest scale to 2.75 billion yuan [1][3] - The semiconductor industry index has risen by 53.42% year-to-date, ranking first among major semiconductor indices, with a maximum increase exceeding 80% [6][7] Group 2 - Nvidia plans to use mobile-grade memory chips in its AI servers, which could lead to a doubling of server memory prices by the end of 2026 [3] - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to benefit from a "price cycle" and "product iteration cycle," leading to higher capital expenditures and sustained order growth for upstream equipment companies [3] - Major semiconductor events, such as ICCAD-Expo 2025 and the China International Semiconductor Expo, are set to take place, attracting leading companies from around the world [5] Group 3 - SMIC's 8-inch monthly production capacity has surpassed 1 million wafers for the first time, with a utilization rate of 95.8%, indicating strong demand for analog and storage orders [5] - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a robust recovery, with the China Securities Index reporting a 32.12% year-on-year revenue growth and a 27.12% increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [7][8] - The top ten components of the semiconductor equipment ETF account for over 78% of the index, focusing on key domestic innovations in the semiconductor supply chain [8]

Group 1: North Exchange Market Insights - The North Exchange is witnessing its second major asset restructuring, with Chuangyuan Xinke planning to acquire 100% equity of Shanghai Weiyu Tiandao Technology for a total price not exceeding 900 million yuan, at a price of 18.88 yuan per share [2][5][6] - The North Exchange market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with average weekly trading volume dropping to 22.2 billion yuan and the North Exchange 50 index declining by 3.11% [6][7] - Despite the current market challenges, there is optimism for a rebound post the National Day holiday, driven by ongoing mergers and acquisitions and the implementation of new policies [6][7] Group 2: Media Industry Overview - Mango TV has launched a new singing talent show, "Voice Rising 2025," in collaboration with multiple major provincial TV stations and online platforms, marking a unique cooperative production model in the industry [9][10] - The new broadcasting policies are expected to revitalize the long-form drama market, with Mango TV's rich content reserve likely to enhance membership growth and viewer engagement [10][11] - The company anticipates revenue growth driven by advertising and increased viewership from its upcoming shows, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 at 14.22 billion, 15.26 billion, and 16.65 billion yuan respectively [12] Group 3: Semiconductor Equipment Sector - Fuchuang Precision is a leading manufacturer of precision components for semiconductor equipment, focusing on metal materials and expanding production capacity in multiple locations including Shenyang, Nantong, Beijing, and Singapore [13][14][15] - The global semiconductor wafer capacity is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2024 to 2028, with significant demand driven by advanced process expansions [15] - The company aims to strengthen its full-chain advantages through independent research and development, enhancing its position in the domestic semiconductor equipment market [16]