半导体设备自主可控是当下强确定性和弹性兼备科技主线 20251222 摘要 半导体设备行业在 2025 年经历订单增速放缓的小年后，预计 2026 年 将迎来加速增长，订单增速有望达到 50%，主要受益于全球 AI 大潮推 动的存储扩产和 AI 芯片先进制程需求。 国内存储厂商长存和长鑫正积极扩产，目标是达到全球 20%-30%的市 场占有率，每年新增产能预计接近 15 万片。同时，国内 AI 大算力芯片 需求巨大，存在显著的扩产需求，共同推动半导体设备行业增长。 半导体设备板块的估值应从关注当期利润转向关注明年订单情况，采用 PS 估值法，目前板块 PS 倍数处于合理区间。保守预测显示，部分股票 有三倍以上的增长空间。 短期内，长存和长鑫的 IPO 进展以及全球存储价格走势是值得关注的产 业催化事件。存储价格预计至少上涨至 2026 年底，将推动国内企业加 快扩产。同时，AI 大算力芯片需求及相关进口数据也需密切关注。 在选择投资标的时，应优先考虑与两存及先进制程关联度高、确定性强 的个股，如北方华创和中微公司。同时，可关注具备弹性、边际变化显 著或具有突破潜力的新兴公司，如拓荆科技和威导纳米。 Q&A 2 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 ● 投资标的名称：宁波芯丰精密科技有限公司（以下简称"芯丰精密"）。 ● 本次对外投资概述：拓荆科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）拟与关联方丰泉创业投资（张家港） 合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称"丰泉创投"）共同投资芯丰精密，其中，公司拟以不超过人民币 270,000,001元受让芯丰精密原股东持有的9,983,765元注册资本，占芯丰精密本轮融资后注册资本的比例 为16.4154%；丰泉创投拟以人民币30,000,000元受让芯丰精密原股东持有的1,109,307元注册资本，占芯 丰精密本轮融资后注册资本的比例为1.8239%。 ● 本次交易涉及与关联方丰泉创投共同投资，构成关联交易，但不构成《上市公司重大资产重组管理办 法》规定的重大资产重组。 ● 本次交易实施不存在重大法律障碍。 ● 本次交易事项已经公司第二届董事会第二十一次会议审议通过，关联董事吕光泉先生和刘静女士已回 避表决，本事项尚需提交公司股东会审议。 证券代码：688072 证券简称：拓荆科技 公告编号：2025-085 拓荆科技股份有限公司关于与 关联方共同投资暨关联交易的公告 本公司董事 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that TuoJing Technology received a notice from its major shareholder, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Big Fund Phase I), regarding a plan to reduce its holdings by up to 8.435 million shares, representing no more than 3% of the total share capital, between December 12, 2025, and March 11, 2026 [1] - As of the end of the third quarter, Big Fund Phase I was TuoJing Technology's largest shareholder, holding 19.57% of the shares, totaling 55.0267 million shares, all acquired before the IPO [1] - Following the announcement, TuoJing Technology's stock price fell by 5.80% to 290.00 CNY per share, resulting in a market capitalization of 81.54 billion CNY, with the potential reduction amounting to over 2 billion CNY based on the current stock price [1] Group 2 - TuoJing Technology specializes in the research, production, sales, and technical services of high-end semiconductor equipment, particularly focusing on thin film deposition equipment, which is crucial in the chip manufacturing process [2] - The company projects that the sales of wafer manufacturing equipment will reach 110.8 billion USD by 2025, accounting for nearly 90% of the total semiconductor equipment sales, with the thin film deposition equipment market expected to be approximately 24.4 billion USD [2] - In terms of financial performance, TuoJing Technology reported a revenue of 4.22 billion CNY for the first three quarters of the year, a year-on-year increase of 85.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 557 million CNY, up 105.14% [2] - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved a revenue of 2.266 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 124.15%, and a net profit of 462 million CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 225.07%, exceeding market expectations [2] Group 3 - The reduction plan by Big Fund Phase I is not an isolated case, as it also announced a similar plan to reduce its holdings in another company, YanDong Micro, by up to 1.5% of the total share capital due to operational needs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the South China headquarters of Zhongwei Semiconductor Equipment in Guangzhou's Zengcheng District marks a significant step in the semiconductor equipment manufacturing sector, enhancing the development of the semiconductor industry chain in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1][2]. Group 1: Company Development - Zhongwei Semiconductor Equipment has maintained an average annual revenue growth of over 35% since its establishment in 2004, with a projected sales growth of 44.7% in 2024 compared to 2023, and a further 43.9% increase in the first half of 2025, reaching 4.961 billion yuan [2]. - The company's R&D investment in the first half of 2025 reached 1.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 53.7%, accounting for about 30.07% of total revenue, which is higher than the average R&D investment level of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2]. - The South China headquarters will focus on the research and production of large flat panel display equipment and will gradually expand into emerging fields such as smart glass and board-level packaging [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The launch of the South China headquarters project will further enhance the semiconductor industry cluster effect in Zengcheng District, which has been actively laying out strategic emerging industries such as semiconductors and new displays through policy guidance and land supply [3]. - The project is seen as a practical implementation of Zhongwei's "three-dimensional development" strategy, laying a solid foundation for the company's diversified layout and high-quality development [3]. - The collaboration with local research institutions, universities, and upstream and downstream enterprises in the semiconductor industry chain is expected to contribute significantly to the technological innovation and economic development of the Guangdong region [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased product competitiveness and successful customer certifications, despite a decline in net profit due to high costs associated with new product validations [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 1.954 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.25% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 94.288 million yuan, a decrease of 26.96% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 38.188 million yuan, an increase of 91.35% [1][3]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded a net profit of 241 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.37% and a significant improvement from Q1 [2][3]. Product and Market Development - The company specializes in high-end semiconductor equipment, with products including PECVD, ALD, and advanced bonding equipment, which are widely used in the domestic integrated circuit manufacturing sector [1][2]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base while maintaining strong relationships with leading domestic wafer manufacturers, resulting in increased market penetration [2]. - As of the end of the reporting period, contract liabilities reached 4.536 billion yuan, a 52.07% increase compared to the end of 2024, indicating a solid order backlog for future revenue growth [2]. Research and Development - The company invested 349 million yuan in R&D, representing 17.87% of its operating revenue, reflecting a commitment to innovation [3]. - The company has shipped over 3,000 reaction chambers, including more than 340 new types, and has entered over 70 production lines, showcasing its growing production capacity [3]. Operational Efficiency - The company's film deposition equipment demonstrated excellent stability, with an average uptime exceeding 90%, aligning with international standards [4]. - Cumulative wafer production using the company's deposition equipment surpassed 343 million pieces, indicating robust application in production lines [4].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongke Feimece reported a revenue of 702.2 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.39%, but incurred a net loss of 18.3543 million yuan, with R&D investment reaching 285.4 million yuan, up 37.79% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the reporting period was 702.2 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 54.31%, an increase of 8.08 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 18.3543 million yuan, and the net loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 110.3 million yuan [2]. - The cash flow from operating activities showed a net loss of 442.4 million yuan, a decrease of 347.4 million yuan compared to the same period last year, primarily due to increased procurement costs and high R&D expenditures [3]. R&D Investment - The company invested 285.4 million yuan in R&D during the first half of 2025, a 37.79% increase year-on-year, focusing on new product development and upgrading existing products [3]. - The R&D investment accounted for a decreasing proportion of revenue, indicating improved operational efficiency [2][3]. Market Position and Product Development - Zhongke Feimece's products cover approximately 70% of the market capacity for measurement equipment, with successful mass production of measurement and intelligent software devices [3]. - However, the more complex defect detection equipment for both bright field and dark field nanostructures is still in the customer process validation stage and has not yet achieved mass production [3]. - The customer base has diversified, covering various sectors including logic, storage, power semiconductors, MEMS, and advanced packaging enterprises, indicating positive market expansion [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][7][22]. Core Views - The company is experiencing high revenue growth driven by both expansion and domestic substitution, positioning it for accelerated growth in the semiconductor equipment sector [6]. - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 702 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.39% [6]. - The company is benefiting from the rapid domestic substitution of measurement equipment, with a projected 14% year-on-year growth in semiconductor capacity in mainland China [6]. - Significant investment in R&D, amounting to 285 million yuan in the first half of 2025, is expected to enhance the company's technological capabilities and market share [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2,076 million yuan, 3,033 million yuan, and 4,198 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 50.4%, 46.1%, and 38.4% [2][8]. - The company is expected to turn profitable by 2025, with a projected net profit of 181 million yuan, following a loss of 12 million yuan in 2024 [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -0.04 yuan in 2024 to 0.56 yuan in 2025, indicating a significant turnaround [2][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading domestic manufacturer of measurement equipment, benefiting from the increasing demand driven by AI and automotive electronics [6]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on expanding its customer base while maintaining repeat orders from existing clients, which is expected to enhance its market coverage [6]. - The company has successfully launched multiple new products, with seven series of equipment already in mass production for top domestic clients, contributing to a steady increase in market share [6].

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong demand with high utilization rates in domestic wafer fabs and ongoing operations in downstream logic and memory manufacturers [1][2] - The domestic semiconductor supply chain is focusing on the progress of domestic substitution in critical processes such as photolithography, metrology, and coating/developing, which will directly impact stock trading strategies [1][2] Key Insights - Significant progress has been made in domestic production rates, moving from 28nm mature processes to breakthroughs in 14nm and more advanced processes, leading to simultaneous increases in value and volume [1][3] - The global semiconductor equipment sales are projected to reach $110.8 billion this year, with expectations to exceed $120 billion next year, driven primarily by AI [4][12] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is expected to see record investment levels in 2024, despite a slight sales adjustment in Q1 2025 [4][16] Investment Opportunities - Investment focus should be on areas with low penetration but large market potential, such as photolithography components, metrology, and developing processes, as well as fast-growing core materials like masks and gases [1][6] - Key components in bottleneck processes, such as photolithography parts and core components of electron beam equipment, are also highlighted as important investment directions [6] Market Dynamics - The semiconductor equipment sector has shown strong upward trends since the beginning of the week, with a notable increase in the index [9] - The domestic semiconductor industry chain is undergoing rapid integration and development, with a decrease in verification cycles and an acceleration in mergers and acquisitions among listed companies [10][11] Policy and Regulatory Impact - Future domestic and international policies will significantly influence the development of domestic semiconductors, with recent adjustments in tariffs and technology controls favoring domestic self-sufficiency [13][21] - The new AI action plan from the U.S. government emphasizes increased semiconductor controls, necessitating accelerated domestic production of components and materials in China [21][22] Emerging Trends - The number of companies focusing on component production has increased, indicating a growing diversity in the parts sector, which now includes around 20 companies [7] - The bottleneck segments in the semiconductor equipment industry have a significant impact on valuations, with breakthroughs in these areas leading to higher market valuations [8] Future Outlook - Companies to watch in the long-term include Huachuang Zhongwei, Tuojing, Xinyuan Micro, and Jingce Electronics, which are positioned to benefit from advancements in the domestic semiconductor industry [19] - Major Chinese memory manufacturers are planning significant expansions in NAND and DRAM, with expectations for demand to more than double [20]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) in China has significantly transformed the capital market, fostering innovation and supporting the growth of technology-driven companies over the past six years [1][2]. Company Development - Microchip Technology Company, founded by Yin Zhiyao, has experienced a fivefold increase in sales since its listing on the STAR Market, expanding its product range from single etching equipment to multiple high-end integrated circuit devices [3][4]. - The company has grown from a 15-person startup to approximately 2,600 employees and has accumulated over 2,000 authorized patents, showcasing its technological capabilities [4]. Industry Impact - The STAR Market has attracted over 120 leading companies in the integrated circuit sector, covering various segments such as chip design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, equipment, materials, and software, thereby enhancing China's self-sufficiency in the integrated circuit industry [4][10]. - The STAR Market has become a key platform for hard technology enterprises, with 589 companies successfully listed, including industry leaders and specialized "little giant" firms [10]. Regulatory Framework - The introduction of the STAR Market's rules in March 2019 marked a significant step in establishing a regulatory framework for technology enterprises, including registration procedures, information disclosure, and listing conditions [5][6]. - The STAR Market's operational efficiency and fairness have been emphasized, with a dedicated team working intensively to ensure the smooth functioning of the listing process [7][8]. Future Potential - The future capacity and potential of the STAR Market are closely linked to its ability to provide inclusive support for technological innovation, positioning China as a global leader in technology innovation [10].

Macro Insights - The recent increase in port activity suggests a high export sentiment ahead of tariff exemptions, with June exports supporting industrial production recovery [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce growth stabilization measures for ten key industries, indicating a rise in "anti-involution" policies and price increases in the black and photovoltaic supply chains [2] Market Strategy - A-share market shows signs of strength, with a shift towards large-cap growth stocks. The "anti-involution" sectors are expected to see valuation recovery, supporting market momentum [3] - Mid-year financial data indicates a strong performance, improving mid-term profit expectations across the A-share market. Focus on sectors like aviation equipment, wind power, and storage for potential growth [3] Fixed Income Insights - Investors exhibit a preference for equities over bonds, with expectations of stable economic production but weak demand. The bond market remains in a volatile state, with a focus on long-term and ultra-long-term bonds [7] - The recent survey indicates a strong interest in macro topics such as consumption policies and tariff negotiations, with a stable funding environment supporting bond market demand [7] Power Equipment and Renewable Energy - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to generate significant investment opportunities, with estimated project values between 53.5 billion and 95.4 billion [9] - Leading companies in the sector, such as Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric, are anticipated to benefit from sustained order growth, potentially alleviating market concerns regarding order sustainability [9] Transportation and Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing growth driven by strong online consumption, with courier volumes showing significant year-on-year increases. The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to stabilize end-user pricing, benefiting major logistics companies [10] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported a strong Q2 performance with revenues of USD 30.07 billion, exceeding guidance due to robust demand for advanced nodes. The company raised its 2025 revenue growth forecast to approximately 30% [16] - The anticipated growth in AI demand is expected to drive revenue increases in advanced process technologies, with a positive outlook for TSMC's operational performance [16] Consumer Goods - The dairy industry is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a return to supply-demand balance by 2026. The recovery in raw milk prices is projected to positively impact upstream dairy farming profits [12] - Major players like Yili and Mengniu are expected to benefit from improved profit margins as the industry stabilizes and demand recovers [12]