证券研究报告 2026年度半导体设备行业策略： 看好存储&先进逻辑扩产， 设备商国产化迎新机遇 首席证券分析师：周尔双 执业证书编号：S0600515110002 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 13915521100 证券分析师：李文意 执业证书编号：S0600524080005 liwenyi@dwzq.com.cn 18867136239 2026年2月27日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ⚫ AI驱动先进逻辑与存储扩产，资本开支进入新一轮上行周期。在AI算力需求爆发背景下，全球半导体设备市 场规模持续创新高。先进逻辑端，FinFET向GAA/CFET演进，5nm及以下制程单位产能设备投资额显著提升 ，单万片/月产能投资额较28nm提升数倍；存储端，HBM带动DRAM高阶制程升级，3D NAND向400层以上 堆叠演进，单万片产能投资额同步提升。中国大陆晶圆产能全球占比仍低于销售占比，逻辑与存储龙头资本 开支维持高位，叠加两大存储厂商上市融资在即，扩产动能具备持续性，支撑前道设备景气度中长期上行。 ⚫ 制程迭代推动设备结构升级，刻蚀与薄膜沉积价值量提升。先进制程结构复杂化带动图形 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is a high-end semiconductor micro-processing equipment manufacturer based in China, targeting global markets, focusing on key equipment for integrated circuit front-end production and gradually expanding into various semiconductor-related fields [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company specializes in developing plasma etching equipment, thin film deposition equipment, measurement equipment, and wet processing equipment [1] - The company is not involved in the production of photolithography machines [1] Group 2: Product Development - The company is progressively developing equipment for advanced packaging, MEMS, MiniLED, MicroLED, and OLED applications [1]

Summary of Semiconductor Equipment Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor equipment industry is expected to experience a slowdown in order growth in 2025, followed by a significant acceleration in 2026, with order growth projected to reach 50% driven by the global AI wave and demand for advanced AI chip processes [1][3] - Domestic storage manufacturers, Changchun and Changxin, are actively expanding production with a target market share of 20%-30%, adding approximately 150,000 wafers of new capacity annually [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - The valuation of the semiconductor equipment sector should shift focus from current profits to next year's order situation, utilizing the Price-to-Sales (PS) valuation method, which currently indicates a reasonable range for the sector [1][6] - Conservative predictions suggest that some stocks in the sector could see over threefold growth potential [1][6] - Short-term catalysts to watch include the IPO progress of Changchun and Changxin, as well as global storage price trends, which are expected to rise at least until the end of 2026 [1][7][8] Investment Recommendations - Investors should prioritize stocks with high certainty and strong connections to Changchun and Changxin, such as North Huachuang and Zhongwei Company, while also considering emerging companies with significant potential like Tuojing Technology and Weidao Nano [1][9] - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to see significant growth due to the rapid increase in demand for AI chips, with a need for at least 5 million AI chips domestically, compared to the current production of 1 million [5] Market Dynamics - The domestic market for NAND and DRAM is seeing increasing localization rates, with NAND reaching over 80% and DRAM close to 50% [3][10] - The domestic production rate for dry etching equipment is expected to rise to 40%-50% by 2026-2027, while thin film deposition equipment is projected to increase to 30%-40% [10][11] Company-Specific Developments - North Huachuang is expected to achieve revenues of 10 billion yuan next year, with a market valuation potentially reaching 450 billion yuan [3][13] - Zhongwei Company has competitive advantages in core technologies and aims to achieve over 60% market coverage by 2030, with significant growth potential [14] - Tuojing Technology has established a leading position in the thin film deposition market and is expected to gain market share in advanced packaging and 3D integration [15][16] - Weidao Nano is focusing on atomic layer deposition products, which are anticipated to grow significantly, with a current market share of 3% expected to increase [17] Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is viewed as having reasonable valuations, with profits in 2025 influenced by order levels, and a trend of accelerated order releases expected in 2026 [21] - Companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei Company are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their certainty and potential for growth, alongside other emerging firms [21][22]

Investment Overview - The company plans to invest in Ningbo Xinfeng Precision Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Xinfeng Precision") alongside its affiliate Fengquan Venture Capital (Zhangjiagang) Partnership (Limited Partnership) [2][4] - The company intends to acquire up to RMB 270,000,001 for a 16.4154% stake in Xinfeng Precision, while Fengquan Venture Capital will invest RMB 30,000,000 for a 1.8239% stake [2][4] Transaction Details - The investment involves acquiring shares from existing shareholders of Xinfeng Precision, with the total registered capital increasing from RMB 57,891,044 to RMB 60,819,616 after the investment [6][17] - The investment is structured as a joint investment with an affiliate, constituting a related party transaction but not classified as a major asset restructuring under relevant regulations [2][6] Company Strategy - The investment aligns with the company's strategic plan to enhance its industrial layout and synergy in the semiconductor equipment sector [24] - Xinfeng Precision focuses on developing and manufacturing thinning, dicing, and cutting equipment for 3D integration and advanced packaging processes, indicating significant growth potential [4][24] Financial Aspects - The pre-investment valuation of Xinfeng Precision is set at RMB 180 million, with the pre-transaction valuation for the share transfer at RMB 156.56 million [15] - The company and Fengquan Venture Capital will contribute cash for their respective equity stakes, ensuring fair pricing and compliance with legal regulations [15][24] Approval Process - The transaction has been approved by the company's board of directors and will be submitted for shareholder approval, with related parties abstaining from voting [27][28] - The company has followed the necessary procedures for related party transactions, ensuring transparency and compliance with regulations [28][68] Future Implications - The investment is expected to positively impact the company's operational development without affecting its independence or financial stability [24][68] - The company will continue to monitor the performance of Xinfeng Precision and the overall market conditions to mitigate potential risks associated with the investment [3][25]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that TuoJing Technology received a notice from its major shareholder, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Big Fund Phase I), regarding a plan to reduce its holdings by up to 8.435 million shares, representing no more than 3% of the total share capital, between December 12, 2025, and March 11, 2026 [1] - As of the end of the third quarter, Big Fund Phase I was TuoJing Technology's largest shareholder, holding 19.57% of the shares, totaling 55.0267 million shares, all acquired before the IPO [1] - Following the announcement, TuoJing Technology's stock price fell by 5.80% to 290.00 CNY per share, resulting in a market capitalization of 81.54 billion CNY, with the potential reduction amounting to over 2 billion CNY based on the current stock price [1] Group 2 - TuoJing Technology specializes in the research, production, sales, and technical services of high-end semiconductor equipment, particularly focusing on thin film deposition equipment, which is crucial in the chip manufacturing process [2] - The company projects that the sales of wafer manufacturing equipment will reach 110.8 billion USD by 2025, accounting for nearly 90% of the total semiconductor equipment sales, with the thin film deposition equipment market expected to be approximately 24.4 billion USD [2] - In terms of financial performance, TuoJing Technology reported a revenue of 4.22 billion CNY for the first three quarters of the year, a year-on-year increase of 85.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 557 million CNY, up 105.14% [2] - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved a revenue of 2.266 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 124.15%, and a net profit of 462 million CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 225.07%, exceeding market expectations [2] Group 3 - The reduction plan by Big Fund Phase I is not an isolated case, as it also announced a similar plan to reduce its holdings in another company, YanDong Micro, by up to 1.5% of the total share capital due to operational needs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the South China headquarters of Zhongwei Semiconductor Equipment in Guangzhou's Zengcheng District marks a significant step in the semiconductor equipment manufacturing sector, enhancing the development of the semiconductor industry chain in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1][2]. Group 1: Company Development - Zhongwei Semiconductor Equipment has maintained an average annual revenue growth of over 35% since its establishment in 2004, with a projected sales growth of 44.7% in 2024 compared to 2023, and a further 43.9% increase in the first half of 2025, reaching 4.961 billion yuan [2]. - The company's R&D investment in the first half of 2025 reached 1.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 53.7%, accounting for about 30.07% of total revenue, which is higher than the average R&D investment level of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2]. - The South China headquarters will focus on the research and production of large flat panel display equipment and will gradually expand into emerging fields such as smart glass and board-level packaging [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The launch of the South China headquarters project will further enhance the semiconductor industry cluster effect in Zengcheng District, which has been actively laying out strategic emerging industries such as semiconductors and new displays through policy guidance and land supply [3]. - The project is seen as a practical implementation of Zhongwei's "three-dimensional development" strategy, laying a solid foundation for the company's diversified layout and high-quality development [3]. - The collaboration with local research institutions, universities, and upstream and downstream enterprises in the semiconductor industry chain is expected to contribute significantly to the technological innovation and economic development of the Guangdong region [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased product competitiveness and successful customer certifications, despite a decline in net profit due to high costs associated with new product validations [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 1.954 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.25% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 94.288 million yuan, a decrease of 26.96% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 38.188 million yuan, an increase of 91.35% [1][3]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded a net profit of 241 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.37% and a significant improvement from Q1 [2][3]. Product and Market Development - The company specializes in high-end semiconductor equipment, with products including PECVD, ALD, and advanced bonding equipment, which are widely used in the domestic integrated circuit manufacturing sector [1][2]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base while maintaining strong relationships with leading domestic wafer manufacturers, resulting in increased market penetration [2]. - As of the end of the reporting period, contract liabilities reached 4.536 billion yuan, a 52.07% increase compared to the end of 2024, indicating a solid order backlog for future revenue growth [2]. Research and Development - The company invested 349 million yuan in R&D, representing 17.87% of its operating revenue, reflecting a commitment to innovation [3]. - The company has shipped over 3,000 reaction chambers, including more than 340 new types, and has entered over 70 production lines, showcasing its growing production capacity [3]. Operational Efficiency - The company's film deposition equipment demonstrated excellent stability, with an average uptime exceeding 90%, aligning with international standards [4]. - Cumulative wafer production using the company's deposition equipment surpassed 343 million pieces, indicating robust application in production lines [4].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongke Feimece reported a revenue of 702.2 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.39%, but incurred a net loss of 18.3543 million yuan, with R&D investment reaching 285.4 million yuan, up 37.79% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the reporting period was 702.2 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 54.31%, an increase of 8.08 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 18.3543 million yuan, and the net loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 110.3 million yuan [2]. - The cash flow from operating activities showed a net loss of 442.4 million yuan, a decrease of 347.4 million yuan compared to the same period last year, primarily due to increased procurement costs and high R&D expenditures [3]. R&D Investment - The company invested 285.4 million yuan in R&D during the first half of 2025, a 37.79% increase year-on-year, focusing on new product development and upgrading existing products [3]. - The R&D investment accounted for a decreasing proportion of revenue, indicating improved operational efficiency [2][3]. Market Position and Product Development - Zhongke Feimece's products cover approximately 70% of the market capacity for measurement equipment, with successful mass production of measurement and intelligent software devices [3]. - However, the more complex defect detection equipment for both bright field and dark field nanostructures is still in the customer process validation stage and has not yet achieved mass production [3]. - The customer base has diversified, covering various sectors including logic, storage, power semiconductors, MEMS, and advanced packaging enterprises, indicating positive market expansion [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][7][22]. Core Views - The company is experiencing high revenue growth driven by both expansion and domestic substitution, positioning it for accelerated growth in the semiconductor equipment sector [6]. - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 702 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.39% [6]. - The company is benefiting from the rapid domestic substitution of measurement equipment, with a projected 14% year-on-year growth in semiconductor capacity in mainland China [6]. - Significant investment in R&D, amounting to 285 million yuan in the first half of 2025, is expected to enhance the company's technological capabilities and market share [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2,076 million yuan, 3,033 million yuan, and 4,198 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 50.4%, 46.1%, and 38.4% [2][8]. - The company is expected to turn profitable by 2025, with a projected net profit of 181 million yuan, following a loss of 12 million yuan in 2024 [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -0.04 yuan in 2024 to 0.56 yuan in 2025, indicating a significant turnaround [2][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading domestic manufacturer of measurement equipment, benefiting from the increasing demand driven by AI and automotive electronics [6]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on expanding its customer base while maintaining repeat orders from existing clients, which is expected to enhance its market coverage [6]. - The company has successfully launched multiple new products, with seven series of equipment already in mass production for top domestic clients, contributing to a steady increase in market share [6].

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong demand with high utilization rates in domestic wafer fabs and ongoing operations in downstream logic and memory manufacturers [1][2] - The domestic semiconductor supply chain is focusing on the progress of domestic substitution in critical processes such as photolithography, metrology, and coating/developing, which will directly impact stock trading strategies [1][2] Key Insights - Significant progress has been made in domestic production rates, moving from 28nm mature processes to breakthroughs in 14nm and more advanced processes, leading to simultaneous increases in value and volume [1][3] - The global semiconductor equipment sales are projected to reach $110.8 billion this year, with expectations to exceed $120 billion next year, driven primarily by AI [4][12] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is expected to see record investment levels in 2024, despite a slight sales adjustment in Q1 2025 [4][16] Investment Opportunities - Investment focus should be on areas with low penetration but large market potential, such as photolithography components, metrology, and developing processes, as well as fast-growing core materials like masks and gases [1][6] - Key components in bottleneck processes, such as photolithography parts and core components of electron beam equipment, are also highlighted as important investment directions [6] Market Dynamics - The semiconductor equipment sector has shown strong upward trends since the beginning of the week, with a notable increase in the index [9] - The domestic semiconductor industry chain is undergoing rapid integration and development, with a decrease in verification cycles and an acceleration in mergers and acquisitions among listed companies [10][11] Policy and Regulatory Impact - Future domestic and international policies will significantly influence the development of domestic semiconductors, with recent adjustments in tariffs and technology controls favoring domestic self-sufficiency [13][21] - The new AI action plan from the U.S. government emphasizes increased semiconductor controls, necessitating accelerated domestic production of components and materials in China [21][22] Emerging Trends - The number of companies focusing on component production has increased, indicating a growing diversity in the parts sector, which now includes around 20 companies [7] - The bottleneck segments in the semiconductor equipment industry have a significant impact on valuations, with breakthroughs in these areas leading to higher market valuations [8] Future Outlook - Companies to watch in the long-term include Huachuang Zhongwei, Tuojing, Xinyuan Micro, and Jingce Electronics, which are positioned to benefit from advancements in the domestic semiconductor industry [19] - Major Chinese memory manufacturers are planning significant expansions in NAND and DRAM, with expectations for demand to more than double [20]