国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年12月28日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：空单持有，酌情加空 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 净持仓变化 | 国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：空单持有，酌情加空 供应 OPEC+在11月底会议上决定 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油周报 供需偏弱 地缘扰动 20251228 黄桂仁 0769-22112875 从业资格号：F3032275 交易咨询号：Z0014527 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 供应：欧佩克12月报显示，11月份OPEC+原油总产量4306.5万桶/日，较年初增加242万桶/日。其中欧佩克原油产量2848.0万桶/日， 较年初增加176.5万桶/日。沙特原油产量1005.3万桶/日，环比增加5.3万桶/日。欧佩克会议决定，由于季节性因素，2026年前三 个月将暂停增产计划。美国原油产量突破1380万桶/日，产量维持高位。 需求：IEA月报将2025年全球石油需求增长预测从71万桶/日上调至78.8万桶/日，预计第四季度石油需求增长将放缓，将2026年全 球石油需求增长预测从69.9万桶/日上调至77万桶/日。预计2026年全球石油供应总量将比需求量高出409万桶/日（先前报告 ...

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年12月21日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：短期观望，待修复性 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 反弹后择机再空 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：短期观望，待 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The average global crude oil inventory change for 2026 is projected to be +204.90 thousand barrels per day according to IEA, EIA, and OPEC [2] - For Q4 2025, the average inventory change is expected to be +162.53 thousand barrels per day, showing a revision from previous forecasts [2] - Global crude oil supply for 2025 is forecasted at 10617.36, 10607.84, and 10470.71 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase [2] - The global crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 10392.25, 10393.68, and 10513.66 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, reflecting a modest increase from 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil supply for 2026 to be 10865.02, 10742.59, and 10654.18 thousand barrels per day respectively, with increases from 2025 [2][35] - The Q4 2025 supply increase is projected at +414.30, +385.36, and +254.12 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [35] Oil Demand - The demand for 2026 is forecasted at 10478.51, 10516.87, and 10651.70 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a growth from 2025 [2][35] - The demand increase for Q4 2025 is expected to be +108.72, +130.72, and +152.22 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [4] Oil Prices - As of December 18, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices are reported at 59.82, 56.00, 47.94, and 65.49 USD per barrel respectively, with significant declines observed over the year [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent down by -21.22%, WTI by -23.42%, and Russian ESPO by -33.37% [9][10] Oil Inventory - The global crude oil inventory change for 2025 is projected at +225.11, +214.16, and -42.95 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with an average increase of +132.11 thousand barrels per day [26] - The U.S. total crude oil inventory as of December 12, 2025, stands at 83658.8 thousand barrels, reflecting a slight increase [19][20]

策调整以及地缘局势变化可能导致原油供给增量不及预期，并将减缓原油市场 过剩预期以及油价下行幅度，同时若宏观环境超预期修复，将给油价带来底部 支撑，叠加油价已经连续四年下跌，2026 年的原油表现可能会比 2025 年相对 更有韧性。 原油年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 研究员：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 原油年报 2025-12 回顾 2025 年，年初，在关税政策和 OPEC+增产计划的共同作用下，油价走 出一个流畅的下行趋势，年中受到中东局势升级带来的地缘风险，油价出现了 一波急涨，但这场由风险溢价驱动的上涨缺乏基本面支撑。随着局势迅速缓和、 停火协议生效，风险溢价被快速挤出，油价随之大幅回落。进入第三季度，受 到需求旺季的托底，油价并未继续深跌，而是进入横盘整理阶段，然而随着旺 季的结束，市场供应压力持续显现，使得油价中枢持续下行。 展望后市，供需方面，2026 年全球石油供给将维持增长，但增幅或低于 2025 年。虽然 OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但后续仍有望继续释放产能，巴西、 加拿大等非减产联 ...

Group 1: Crude Oil Supply - Crude oil production slightly decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13,843,000 barrels per day, maintaining historical highs with stable production levels [5] - The number of active oil rigs increased by 1, indicating limited new capacity growth [5] - Crude oil exports surged by 655,000 barrels per day, while imports saw a slight decline, leading to a significant narrowing of net imports [5] Group 2: Crude Oil Demand - U.S. crude oil demand showed a slight decline but remains significantly above historical averages, with refinery processing volumes increasing moderately [10][52] - Overall demand on the consumption side is maintaining stability, reflecting a resilient market despite minor fluctuations [10][52] Group 3: Crude Oil Inventory - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1,274,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 4,808,000 barrels, indicating a mixed inventory trend [31] - The Cushing region saw a drawdown of 742,000 barrels, while the PADD3 demand area experienced a reduction of 1,090,000 barrels [54] Group 4: Refined Oil Supply - Refinery utilization rates increased by 0.3% to 94.8%, remaining at historically high levels with stable operations [21] - Recent fluctuations in refinery maintenance levels are significantly above historical averages, but current maintenance scales are still low, suggesting high operational capacity in the near future [21] Group 5: Refined Oil Consumption - Refined oil demand showed a slight decline, with gasoline demand experiencing a minor increase while jet fuel demand decreased [65] - Industrial oil products, such as distillates, saw a decrease in demand, while propane and propylene demand remained stable [65] Group 6: Terminal Consumption - Highway travel mileage remains near historical highs, indicating strong logistics and travel demand, with TSA passenger numbers also showing a mild recovery trend [28][70] - Both metrics suggest resilient terminal consumption activity without significant signs of slowdown [28][70] Group 7: Global Oil Supply-Demand Balance - EIA data indicates that global oil supply is under pressure, with a recent adjustment reflecting a high supply output and limited demand response from the economy [35] - Anticipated improvements in supply-demand balance may occur next year as OPEC+ pauses production increases and major consuming countries' demand is expected to recover [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Crude Oil Market Trend Review - Reviews the historical trends of crude oil from 1983 - 2025 and the trend in 2025 [4][5] - Analyzes the trading volume and open interest of domestic crude oil futures [4] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis No detailed content is provided, but it includes IMF's global economic growth forecast, relationships between global and major - country manufacturing PMI, CPI, PPI, and oil prices [5] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply Analysis - Global crude oil supply is expected to maintain growth in 2026 [4] - OPEC+ suspended production increases in Q1 2026 but may continue to release production capacity later [4] - US crude oil output will slow down further [4] - Global geopolitical turmoil continues to affect crude oil supply [4] 3.4 Crude Oil Demand Analysis - The growth rate of global oil demand is expected to decline [4] - The increase in US oil demand is limited [4] - European oil demand is expected to remain sluggish [4] - China's oil consumption has increased significantly [4] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Presents EIA/OPEC/IEA's crude oil supply - demand balance data from 2021 - 2026, including total supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences [62] 3.6 Crude Oil Options Analysis - Analyzes the trading volume and open interest of crude oil options [4] - Analyzes crude oil options strategies [4] 3.7 Technical and Seasonal Analysis - Conducts technical analysis [4] - Conducts seasonal analysis [4] 3.8 Outlook for the Future No detailed content is provided. 3.9 Statistics of Related Stock Prices and Price Changes - Lists the stock abbreviations, codes, latest prices, and year - to - date price changes of multiple crude - oil - related stocks [79]

2026 年度能化策略报告 光期研究 2026 年度能化策略报告 光大期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 2026 年度能化策略报告 目录 | 原油：秩序更迭 积重难返 3 | | --- | | 油品：殊途未同 33 | | 集运：潮汐如故 52 | | 橡胶：沉潜蓄势 66 | | PX&PTA&MEG：破局向需 91 | | 聚烯烃：负重前行 117 | | PVC：踟蹰不前 134 | | 甲醇：逆水行舟 146 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 2026 年度能化策略报告 原油：秩序更迭 积重难返 研究所副所长：钟美燕 年报摘要： ⚫ 2025 年行情回顾 2025 年一季度油价创下年内高点后重心下移，受到中美关税政策与 OPEC 超预期增产影响，布油运行区间在 81-63 美元/桶；二季度油价先跌 后涨，6 月伊以局势演绎下油价急涨急跌，布油峰值在 76 美元/桶。三季度， 夏季出行高峰支撑需求，同时伊朗、委内瑞拉等国产量的非预期减少可能加 剧市场紧张，油价区间震荡。季节性需求 ...

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年12月14日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：仍是下行趋势，考验 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 支撑 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：仍是下行趋势，考验支撑 ...

核心内容速览 2026年或将成为原油市场的转折之年，预计一季度全球供需过剩压力将达峰，随后随着产量增长边际放缓，叠加美联 储降息等宏观利好逐步显现，市场有望逐步开启上行窗口。详见下文。 摘要 核心逻辑：2026供应增长可能受限，需求保持韧性，宏观环境可能从抑制转向支撑。 供应端，OPEC剩余减产恢复空间、产能潜力均有限；美国页岩油资本开支计划同比下降，页岩油产量预计增长乏 力；非美非OPEC产量增速预计持续放缓。各地区国家原油产量均有边际放缓的趋势，预计随着2026年Q1过剩量达 峰，后续时间原油供应压力或持续下降。 需求端，预计2026年整体保持低速平稳增长，美联储降息周期对油价影响利多为主；表外需求看中国补库可能延续。 整体看，2026年1至2季度，市场仍需消化阶段性过剩压力，油价可能承压运行，并有望触及2022年下行周期以来的阶 段性低点。而随着过剩压力在达峰后的逐步缓解，油价可能迎来供需边际转紧与宏观利好共振的上行窗口。 预估2026年布伦特油价重心55~70美元/桶，策略上可关注在1至2季度过剩压力导致油价超跌时，逐步布局中长期多头 的机会，同时密切关注OPEC+政策、地缘风险及中美库存动态。 一、 ...