2026-01-30原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2603： 1.基本面：美国国防部长赫格塞斯周四表示，美国军方将做好准备，执行特朗普总统对伊朗做出的任 何决定，以确保德黑兰不会寻求发展核武器能力；克里姆林宫表示，俄罗斯已重申邀请乌克兰总统泽 连斯基前往莫斯科举行和平会谈。目前，在美国主导下结束这场已持续近四年的乌克兰战争的努力正 在加速；特朗普称与参议院民主党就避免政府关门达成临时协议，为国土安全部提供两周资金，以便 继续谈判；中性 2.基差：1月29日，阿曼原油现货价为66.67美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为66.15美元/桶，基差 20.23元/桶，现货升水 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and gas industry is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Insights - The supply side will remain tight, which is a dominant factor for oil prices in 2026, while the demand side shows resilience. The willingness to increase production in shale oil is limited due to insufficient intent and questionable capacity. OPEC's strong intention to cut production to support prices is evident, and geopolitical tensions may impact production and exports from oil-producing countries [3][6][7][9] Supply and Demand Analysis - In 2025, the international oil price exhibited a "N" shaped trend due to weak supply and demand affected by geopolitical disturbances. The price dropped from $74.64 per barrel to $60.23 per barrel, then rose to $78.85 per barrel before falling again to $60.85 per barrel by the end of the year [20] - For 2026, the supply side is expected to remain tight, with a slight easing in supply-demand balance compared to Q4 2025. The oil price is projected to stabilize between $60 and $65 per barrel, excluding geopolitical premiums [9][6] - The U.S. shale oil breakeven price has significantly increased by 25% to $65 per barrel compared to Q1 2018, limiting the ability to increase production. The efficiency of new wells is improving slowly, and the number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells has decreased significantly [25][35][41] - OPEC's ability to control prices through production cuts has strengthened, especially as U.S. production growth has not rebounded to previous levels. OPEC is likely to maintain a certain level of production cuts to support prices [7][61] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving countries like Iran, may severely impact production and exports. The U.S. has indicated intentions to sanction entities assisting Iran in illegal oil sales, which could further influence oil supply and prices [67][68][72] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, and any disruption could significantly affect global oil prices due to the high dependency of major oil-exporting countries on this passage [72][74] Demand Forecast - Global oil demand is expected to stabilize in 2025, with a slight decrease in growth to approximately 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026. The demand is supported by economic policies in India and resilient demand in the U.S. [8][30]

在地缘政治紧张与美国寒潮天气共同冲击下，国际油价强劲反弹，收盘价更是刷新了3个月来的新高。 同时，港A两地石油股继续走高。港股市场中，中国海洋石油、中海油田服务涨超5%，中国石油股份、上海石油化 工股份涨超4%，中国石油化工股份涨超3%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 | 24.820 | +1.300 | 5.53% | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | 9.060 | +0.470 | 5.47% | | 00346 | 延长石油国际 | 0.415 | +0.020 | 5.06% | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 9.240 | +0.430 | 4.88% | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股份 | 1.560 | +0.070 | 4.70% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股份 | 5.450 | +0.190 | 3.61% | | 00135 | 昆仑能源 | 8.000 | +0.050 | C ( C ( 3 ) | A股市场中，通源石油2 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年01月26日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数 据显示，美国原油库存累库幅度超预期，同时汽油库存累库幅度继续超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍 位于历史最高位附近。美国能源部长赖特在世界经济论坛上呼吁将全球石油产量提高1倍以上，以满足不断增长的需求并防止能源 贫困。近期国际货币基金组织将2026年世界经济增速上调0.2个百分点，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解。不过， 全球原油浮库高企，原油仍是供应过剩格局，EIA最新的1月月报上调了2026年原油供应过剩幅度。雪佛龙正加大对于委内瑞拉原油 的运输。目前委内瑞拉对于全球原油供需影响不大。美国财政部23日宣布针对伊朗实施新一轮制裁措施，涉及多家与石 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Stronger than the Market" (maintained) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report Short - term - Short - term geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices may show a volatile and upward - biased trend. In January 2026, oil prices showed a volatile and upward - biased trend. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, and turmoil in the Middle East have made geopolitical risks the main factor supporting oil prices again. Multiple geopolitical events have occurred, such as the US military attack on Venezuela on January 3, Trump's meeting with oil company executives on January 9, and threats to Iran [2]. Medium - term - The medium - term fundamentals may further widen, and the central direction of oil prices is still downward. OPEC+ has not completed its restorative production increase plan, American countries continue to increase production, and Venezuelan oil may gradually restore its production to the pre - sanction level. The pressure of supply surplus is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the global crude oil inventory will continue to accumulate in 2026, and the central price of Brent oil is expected to be around $56 per barrel [6][8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1.1 OPEC - In December 2025, OPEC 12 - country crude oil production was 28,564 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 105 thousand barrels per day. OPEC+ (excluding countries without quota restrictions) production was 37,438 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 198 thousand barrels per day compared with the previous month. OPEC+ plans to suspend the production increase plan from January to March 2026, and the supply of Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian oil may be disturbed by geopolitical factors [14] 1.2 OPEC - In December 2025, Non - OPEC DoC crude oil production was 14,267 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 343 thousand barrels per day. Kazakhstan's production decreased by 237 thousand barrels per day, and Russia's production decreased by 73 thousand barrels per day. It is estimated that the year - on - year increase in crude oil supply from Non - DoC countries in 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 930,000 barrels per day, 600,000 barrels per day, and 590,000 barrels per day respectively [22] 1.3 - In December 2025, the global total number of drilling rigs was 1,854, a month - on - month decrease of 30. The total number of drilling rigs in Canada decreased by 19, and that in the US decreased by 3. In December 2025, the number of new wells drilled in the seven major shale oil producing areas in the US increased by 10 month - on - month, the number of newly completed wells decreased by 7, and the number of inventory wells decreased by 29 [27] 1.4 OPEC - OPEC predicts that the global oil demand in 2026 will be 106.5 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.38 million barrels per day. The oil demand in China will be 17.1 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day. In 2027, the global oil demand is expected to be 107.9 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.34 million barrels per day, and China's oil demand will be 17.3 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day [28] 2.1 EIA - According to the EIA's January 2026 report, the supply - demand gap of global crude oil and related liquid fuels from 2025 to 2027 will be +2.59 million, +2.83 million, and +2.09 million barrels per day respectively. It is expected that the global crude oil will continue to accumulate inventory from 2026 to 2027. The average price of Brent oil is expected to drop to $56 per barrel in 2026, a 19% decrease from 2025, and to $54 per barrel in 2027 [31] 2.2 EIA - In January 2026, the global crude oil production was 79.43 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0926 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.7363 million barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil production will increase by 1.37 million barrels per day and 530,000 barrels per day year - on - year in 2026 and 2027 respectively. After the OPEC+ production increase plan is completed in 2026, the increase in 2027 may slow down significantly, and the production of the US may decrease year - on - year in 2027, while the increase from new projects in South America will dominate [37] 2.3 EIA - In January 2026, the global oil demand was 102.38 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8818 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 997,600 barrels per day. It is predicted that the global oil demand will be 104.82 million barrels per day in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 1.13 million barrels per day, and 106.09 million barrels per day in 2027, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million barrels per day. China and India are the main sources of global oil consumption growth [40] 3.1 IEA - The IEA predicts that the global oil supply will still be in surplus in 2026. The export of Iranian and Venezuelan oil has great uncertainties. In 2025, the global oil supply increased by 3 million barrels per day year - on - year, and it is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. In November 2025, the global oil inventory increased sharply, and the export of Iranian and Venezuelan oil decreased [41] 3.2 IEA - The IEA predicts that the year - on - year increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026 will be about 850,000 barrels per day and 930,000 barrels per day respectively. The year - on - year increase in global oil consumption in 2026 may be mainly provided by liquefied petroleum gas and naphtha, and China's naphtha demand may continue to show a large increase [47] 5.1 Investment Suggestions - In the short term, oil prices may show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and the support for Brent oil prices at $60 per barrel is strong. In the medium term, the supply surplus pressure is difficult to relieve, and the central price of Brent oil is expected to be around $56 per barrel. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic oil companies that continue to focus on domestic oil and gas resource exploration, have clear goals for increasing reserves and production, and have great potential for overseas market development, such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Offshore Oil Engineering, CNOOC Energy Technology & Services, Zhongman Petroleum, and Intercontinental Oil & Gas [60]

【冠通期货研究报告】 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存累库幅度超预期，同时汽油库存累库幅度继续 超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍位于历史最高位附近。美国能源部长 赖特在世界经济论坛上呼吁将全球石油产量提高1倍以上，以满足不断增长的需求并防止能源贫困。 特朗普警告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品征收的关 税。印度在2025年12月对俄原油进口已跌至三年低点，较6月峰值下降三分之一。近期国际货币基金 组织将2026年世界经济增速上调0.2个百分点，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解。不 过，全球原油浮库高企，原油仍是供应过剩格局，EIA和IEA最新的1月月报上调了2026年原油供应过 剩幅度。特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，雪佛龙正加大对于委内瑞拉原油 的运输。目前委内瑞拉对于全球原油供需影响不大。特朗普在白宫表示，收到了"来自伊朗非常积 极的声明"，"我们要先观望局势发展"，伊朗国内骚乱得到 ...

Supply Side Analysis - The negative factors suppressing oil prices have largely been released, with the marginal effect of non-OPEC production increases expected to weaken in 2026[2] - OPEC+ countries are likely to strengthen their market influence in 2026, with a strong willingness to maintain stable production levels due to fiscal price support demands[2] - U.S. shale oil production is constrained as the WTI price has fallen below the breakeven point of $60-70 per barrel, leading to reduced capital expenditure by oil companies[15] Demand Side Analysis - Tariff impacts on demand are expected to weaken significantly, with Trump's tariff policies becoming more restrained due to legal and political pressures[3] - Fiscal expansion policies in Europe and the U.S. are anticipated to improve oil demand, supported by steady growth in emerging markets[3] - The Brent crude oil price is projected to fluctuate between $55-70 per barrel in 2026, indicating limited downside risk and a potential for marginal recovery[58] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions could lead to temporary supply shocks, potentially pushing oil prices above $70 per barrel[4] - The long-term oil price trend will still be constrained by supply-demand fundamentals, making sustained upward trends unlikely[4] Risk Factors - Global economic slowdown may hinder demand recovery, impacting oil consumption negatively[63] - Insufficient compliance with OPEC+ production cuts and unexpected supply increases could disrupt market balance[63] - Political uncertainties and geopolitical conflicts may lead to significant market volatility, complicating investment decisions[63]

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in Iran have led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures rising by 1.9% and 0.7% respectively as of January 16, 2026 [2] - OPEC+ has increased production by 2.21 million barrels per day in 2025, but plans to slow down production increases in 2026 to balance oil prices [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 860,000 barrels per day, driven primarily by the chemical sector [4] Group 2 - The "Big Three" Chinese oil companies have demonstrated resilience during the recent oil price fluctuations, with performance exceeding historical levels due to increased production and effective cost control [5] - The ongoing capital expenditure by the "Big Three" is expected to support their long-term growth and adaptation to changing market conditions [5]

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年01月19日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 EIA月报将2026年WTI原油价格上调0.79美元/桶至52.21美元/桶；将2026年全球石油需求从此前预测的1.052亿桶/日下调至 1.048亿桶/日，将2026年全球石油产量从此前预测的1.074亿桶/日上调至1.077亿桶/日。 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数 据显示，美国原油库存超预期累库，同时汽油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍位于历史最高 位附近。特朗普警告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品征收的关税。印度在2025年12月 对俄原油进口已跌至三年低点，较6月峰值下降三分之一。欧美成品油裂解价差低迷，美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Hualian Futures Crude Oil Weekly: Short - term Focus on Geopolitical Disturbances" [2] - Report Date: 20250118 [2] - Analyst: Huang Guiren [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Overall, crude oil supply and demand remain in an oversupplied state, and global oil inventories are at a high level. There are still short - term geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, Iran, etc. Technically, it mainly shows a range - bound pattern. For mid - to long - term futures trading, it should still be treated bearishly, but in the short - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical pulse - like disturbances. One can buy continuous call options for protection, and the resistance level for the SC2603 contract is at 450 - 460 yuan/barrel. [8] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Supply - **OPEC+ Production**: In December, OPEC+ total crude oil production was 42.831 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 238,000 barrels per day. OPEC crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.078 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 barrels per day. Due to seasonal factors, OPEC decided to suspend the production increase plan in the first three months of 2026. [9][32] - **US Production**: The US crude oil production exceeded 13.8 million barrels per day, maintaining a high level. As of the week ending January 9, the US crude oil production was 13.811 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels and a year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day. The US shale oil production in December was 9.22 million barrels per day, accounting for about 66% of the total crude oil production. [9][47] - **China Production and Import**: In November, China's crude oil production was 17.627 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The cumulative production from January to November was 198 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. China's crude oil imports in November were 50.891 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2% and a year - on - year increase of 84.9%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 522 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. [51] - **Drilling Quantity**: As of December last year, the global active oil and gas rig count was 1,782, a month - on - month decrease of 30 and a year - on - year decrease of 82. Among them, the US rig count was 546, a month - on - month decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 43. [28] 4.2 Demand - **Global Demand Forecast**: The IEA monthly report raised the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2025 from 710,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day and expected the growth of oil demand in the fourth quarter to slow down. It also raised the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026 from 699,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the total global oil supply in 2026 will exceed the demand by 4.09 million barrels per day. The EIA short - term energy outlook report expects the average daily increase in global crude oil inventories in 2026 to reach 2.8 million barrels, basically the same as the increase in 2025. OPEC maintained its previous forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026, believing that the average daily global oil demand in 2026 will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day compared with 2025. [9] - **Refinery Operating Rate**: As of the week ending January 9, the US refinery operating rate was 95.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.6 percentage points, at a seasonal high. China's refinery operating rate was 70.62%, remaining flat both week - on - week and year - on - year. Domestic major refineries' operating rate rebounded month - on - month and was at a moderately high level, while independent refineries' operating rate decreased month - on - month. [61][65] - **Product Oil Production and Export**: In 2025, China's cumulative gasoline production from January to December was 162.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.07%, at the lowest level in recent years. The cumulative gasoline exports from January to November were 7.6775 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The cumulative diesel production from January to December was 209.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.55%. The cumulative diesel exports from January to November were 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.28%. The cumulative kerosene production from January to December was 61.6166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. The cumulative exports from January to November were 19.5845 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.56%. [70][75][79] - **Automobile and Truck Production**: In 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 34.531 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. Among them, the cumulative production of new - energy vehicles was 16.626 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 29%. The rapid development of China's new - energy vehicle industry since 2020 has had a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand. [84] 4.3 Inventory - **OECD and Global In - transit Inventory**: According to the OPEC monthly report, in November, OECD commercial oil inventories increased by 4 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil increasing by 8.1 million barrels and refined oil decreasing by 4.1 million barrels), 77.6 million barrels higher than the same period last year and slightly 300,000 barrels higher than the five - year average. The global in - transit crude oil inventory decreased from its high but remained at a high level. [90] - **US Inventory**: As of the week ending January 9, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.391 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 745,000 barrels. The US EIA gasoline inventory increased by 8.977 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory decreased by 290,000 barrels. With the high refinery operating rate in the US, refined oil inventories continued to accumulate. [92][96] - **China Inventory**: China's port crude oil inventory decreased week - on - week last week but was higher year - on - year. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory remained stable at a low level. [101] 4.4 Macro Data - Not elaborated on in detail in the report, only some related data charts are provided, including China and US GDP year - on - year growth rates, the US dollar index, US non - farm employment numbers, and China's composite PMI.