Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The pattern of long - short factors intertwined in the oil price may continue. Global economic slowdown concerns and OPEC+'s production - increasing tendency will limit the upside of oil prices, while unexpected geopolitical risk escalations or significant macro - economic policy changes may support and rebound oil prices [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - OPEC+ approved an increase of about 137,000 barrels per day in daily oil production starting from October 2025 and plans to continue this production - increasing rhythm until September 2026, accelerating the release of a total capacity of 1.65 million barrels per day [3] - US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day, the largest increase since February this year [20] Demand - side - In the second quarter of 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global crude oil demand slowed down from 1.1% in the first quarter to 0.7%, mainly due to the continuous weakening of the global economy. The demand in the US, an important crude oil consumer, weakened significantly due to seasonal factors last week [3] Inventory - As of September 5, EIA data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.939 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.458 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 4.715 million barrels [3][41] Global Crude Oil Balance Sheet - Supply - demand looseness dominates the fundamentals in the second half of the year. There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years, with a cumulative surplus of over 2.6 billion barrels of crude oil [55][56] Reasons for the Loose Supply - demand Situation - Non - OPEC supply has a rigid increase. From 2025 to 2026, non - OPEC production increased from 67.5 to 70.3 million barrels per day (+4.1%), while OPEC production only increased slightly by 0.7 million barrels per day. US shale oil and Brazilian deep - sea oil are the main sources of incremental production [60] - OPEC+ production cuts are ineffective. In September 2025, OPEC+ completely withdrew from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut, but the increase in non - OPEC production completely offset its efforts [60] - OECD demand has stagnated. After August 2025, it has been continuously below 46.5 million barrels per day, and in January 2026, it suddenly dropped to 44.8 million barrels per day (-3.4% month - on - month) [60] - Non - OECD demand fluctuates violently. It reached a peak of 59.4 million barrels per day in December 2025, but suddenly dropped to 58.3 million barrels per day (-1.8%) in October 2026 [60] - There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years. In 2025, there was positive inventory every month except December, and in 2026, there was only a short - term inventory draw in December. The cumulative surplus of crude oil exceeded 2.6 billion barrels [60] - There is storage capacity pressure. On January 2026, the single - day inventory accumulation reached 2.6 million barrels, a peak in the cycle, implying that storage costs will erode the oil price margin [60] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical and sanction factors. In August, Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments decreased, and Iran's high - sulfur exports also declined. China's low - sulfur fuel oil production in August was 1.06 million tons, a 4.6% increase from July, but the cumulative production from January to August was about 7.8 million tons, a decrease of about 19% compared with the same period last year [6] Demand - High - sulfur fuel oil demand lacks growth points as the power generation demand in the Middle East and other regions decreases seasonally after the end of the northern hemisphere summer, and the refinery feeding demand also declines with the weakening of gasoline consumption. Low - sulfur fuel oil demand shows some resilience, supported by the unexpected recovery of global shipping demand, but it also faces long - term competition from alternative energy sources [7] Inventory - In the week of September 10, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 871,000 barrels to a two - week low of 26.528 million barrels. In the week of September 8, Fujairah's fuel oil inventory rebounded strongly by 28% to 7.095 million barrels. In the week of September 5, the fuel oil inventory in the ARA region decreased by 4.4% to 1 million tons, but its inventory level is still higher than the five - year average [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern within a range, but the upward resistance is increasing. Geopolitical disturbances provide bottom support for oil prices, but the seasonal weakening of the demand side may cause the market to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On September 10, the price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly to 486.2 yuan/barrel (+0.7%), with an intraday fluctuation range of 481.0 - 490.5 yuan/barrel. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained flat at 62.77 dollars/barrel and 66.53 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI widened to 1.74 dollars/barrel (+41.46%) and 5.5 dollars/barrel (+10.22%) respectively, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread dropped significantly to - 0.3 yuan/barrel (previous value: 4.0 yuan/barrel) [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain Supply Side - Russia will increase its western port oil exports in September by 11% to 210 million barrels per day due to a refinery attack. The US White House plans to require large refineries to share the biofuel blending exemption quota of small refineries, which may weaken refinery's crude oil import demand if the policy is implemented. The OPEC+ online meeting evaluated market trends, but no specific production adjustment signals from oil - producing countries were seen [3]. Demand Side - US EIA data shows that on the week of September 5, refinery equipment utilization rose to 94.9% (expected 93.7%), but crude oil implied demand declined to 1920.3 million barrels per day (previous value: 1982 million barrels per day). Gasoline and distillate implied demand also decreased to 950.17 million barrels per day and 477.24 million barrels per day respectively. High refinery operating rates and weak terminal demand may indicate an increased risk of refined oil inventory accumulation [3]. Inventory Side - The total inventory of US crude oil and refined oil reached the largest increase since 2023. Commercial crude oil inventory increased by 393.9 million barrels (expected a decrease of 104 million barrels), refined oil inventory increased by 471.5 million barrels (expected an increase of 3.5 million barrels), and gasoline inventory increased by 145.8 million barrels (expected a decrease of 24.3 million barrels). China's crude oil futures warrants remained at a high level of 572.1 million barrels [4]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern within a range, but the upward resistance is increasing. Supply - side contradictions are prominent, demand resilience is insufficient, and structural contradictions are emerging. Geopolitical disturbances provide bottom support for oil prices, but the seasonal weakening of the demand side may cause the market to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [5]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose by 0.7% to 486.2 yuan/barrel, WTI rose by 0.65% to 63.18 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose by 1.61% to 67.60 dollars/barrel. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while other spot prices showed various changes. - Spreads: SC - Brent spread decreased by 45.53%, SC - WTI spread increased by 2.00%, and Brent - WTI spread increased by 17.55%. - Other assets: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes [7]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose by 0.72% to 2786 yuan/ton, LU decreased by 0.06% to 3383 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil rose by 0.5%. - Spot prices: Most spot prices had slight changes, and some remained unchanged. - Paper - cargo prices: Some paper - cargo prices were not available. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 3.55% [8]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations Supply - On September 10, Russia increased its September western port oil exports by 11% to 210 million barrels per day due to a refinery drone attack. On September 7, eight countries held an online meeting to assess the global market situation and future development trends [9]. Demand - The US Energy Secretary expects strong global economic recovery and a significant increase in oil demand in the next few years. However, US EIA data shows a decline in the implied demand for distillate fuel oil, gasoline, and crude oil [10]. Inventory - On September 10, the warehouse futures warrants of low - sulfur fuel oil, medium - sulfur crude oil, and fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the warehouse warrants of petroleum asphalt decreased by 300 tons, and the warehouse warrants of pulp increased by 38 tons [11]. Market Information - As of 2:30 closing, the main contracts of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil had corresponding changes. The Trump administration appealed the court's ruling to block the removal of Fed Governor Cook. The US White House is reviewing a new rule that requires large refineries to bear the biofuel blending exemption quota of small refineries [12]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, PAJ, iFinD, etc. [13][15][20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israeli airstrike on Hamas leaders in Qatar has led to a modest increase in oil prices, which is lower than traders' expectations, highlighting the current oversupply of crude oil in the market [2][3]. Oil Market Dynamics - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East typically have a more significant impact on oil prices when demand is high and supply is tight, but currently, investors are more concerned about demand shortages rather than supply shortages [2][3]. - OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production since April, with an agreement to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in October, contributing to a growing expectation of oversupply in the global oil market [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a significant increase in crude oil inventories in the coming months due to seasonal demand weakening, which is likely to lead to a decline in oil prices [4]. - Global oil production is projected to reach 105.5 million barrels per day, exceeding consumption of 103.8 million barrels per day, indicating a supply surplus [4]. Market Sentiment - The market has become accustomed to recurring conflicts in the Middle East, and unless these conflicts have a direct and sustained impact on supply, traders are unlikely to factor in risk premiums into pricing [3][4]. - The current situation emphasizes that OPEC remains a key player in determining oil market supply, with the potential for price increases dependent on either a reduction in global oil supply or unexpected growth in demand [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market shows intensified multi - empty gaming. SC crude oil may continue to be weaker than the external market in the short term, and international oil prices (WTI/Brent) are expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. If geopolitical conflicts do not escalate, oil prices may decline further [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 9, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped from 490.5 yuan/barrel to 482.8 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.57%. WTI and Brent prices remained flat. The SC - Brent spread narrowed from 2.53 dollars/barrel to 1.52 dollars/barrel (a 39.92% decline), and the SC - WTI spread fell from 6.31 dollars/barrel to 5.3 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread decreased from 11.5 yuan/barrel to 4.0 yuan/barrel (a 65.22% decline), indicating increased short - term spot - end pressure [2] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: Supply - side: Geopolitical disturbances persist, but supply increase expectations are strengthened. Malaysia plans to increase production, Norway will continue exploration, and Iraq sets different OSPs. Demand - side: Short - term demand is suppressed by the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and potential EU sanctions. Inventory - side: US commercial crude oil inventory accumulates counter - seasonally, and Mexican low - price export expectations reflect long - term supply - demand looseness. Domestic fuel oil warehouse receipts show differentiation [3] - **Price Trend Judgment**: The crude oil market has intensified multi - empty gaming. Support factors include geopolitical risks and potential EU sanctions, while suppression factors include non - OPEC production increase plans, US inventory accumulation, etc. SC crude oil may be weaker in the short term, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent change. Spot prices of various crude oils also have different changes. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI change. Other assets like the US dollar index, S&P 500, etc., also show fluctuations. US commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing inventory, and strategic reserve inventory increase, while the US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume decline slightly [6] - **Fuel Oil**: Futures, spot, and paper - cargo prices of fuel oil change. Spreads such as Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads also change. Inventory data of US distillates are provided [7] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: Geopolitical conflicts add uncertainty to crude oil supply. Malaysia plans to increase production, Norway will continue exploration, and Iraq sets different OSPs. Mexico receives funds and has production and price expectations [8][9] - **Demand**: Turkey signs a natural gas purchase agreement, and an Italian company's joint - venture may supply gas to Asian countries [10] - **Inventory**: US API inventory data and domestic fuel oil warehouse receipt changes are reported [11] - **Market Information**: Spot gold and WTI crude oil open flat. Crude - oil - related futures prices fluctuate. There are legislative proposals in the US, potential EU sanctions on Russia, and no adjustment in domestic refined oil prices. Mexican expected export prices are given [12][13] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Various data charts are provided, including WTI and Brent price and spread charts, US crude oil production charts, refinery operating rate charts, inventory charts, and fuel - oil - related price and spread charts [15][17][19][21][22][24][28][30][34][35][37][41][42][44][48][49][51][54][58][60]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The overnight attack on an oil tanker by the Houthi armed forces and the US considering giving up diplomatic efforts to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine have raised geopolitical concerns, stimulating oil prices to rise. However, as the summer peak - season demand ends, there is pressure on the upside. In the short term, oil prices will continue to fluctuate, with an expected range of 485 - 495 for the short - term, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For crude oil 2510, the fundamentals are neutral due to factors like US diplomatic considerations, Houthi armed attacks, and India's oil imports. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is positive. Inventory data presents a neutral situation. The 20 - day moving average is downward with the price below it, which is negative. As of August 26, the WTI crude oil main - contract long positions decreased while Brent crude oil long positions increased, overall neutral [3]. 2. Recent News - Oil traders expect OPEC+ to keep crude oil production unchanged at the upcoming meeting. OPEC+ over - production, Asian fuel consumption slowdown, and supply surges in the US, Brazil, and Canada have led to an oil glut, causing a 9% drop in oil prices this year. Brent crude futures traded near $68 per barrel on Monday [5]. - On September 1, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces attacked the "Scarlet Ray" oil tanker in the Red Sea. After the Israeli military's air - strike on Sanaa on August 28, the Houthi armed forces vowed to retaliate and escalate attacks on Israel [5]. - Amid deteriorating relations with the US, Modi reaffirmed India's partnership with Russia. Modi and Putin discussed bilateral cooperation in various fields and the Ukraine conflict. Modi also called for peace with Zelensky [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine; continued tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing while trade tariff risks are rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: On September 1, compared with the previous day, Brent crude oil decreased by $0.50 (- 0.74%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.59 (- 0.91%), SC crude oil increased by 1.80, and Oman crude oil remained unchanged [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: Compared with the previous day, UK Brent increased by $0.57 (0.84%), WTI decreased by $0.59 (- 0.91%), Oman crude oil increased by $0.75 (1.07%), Shengli crude oil increased by $0.86 (1.32%), and Dubai crude oil increased by $0.64 (0.91%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 22, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 974,000 barrels, the EIA inventory decreased by 2.392 million barrels, and the Cushing area inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels. As of September 1, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.721 million barrels, unchanged [3]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of August 26, the net long positions of WTI crude oil funds were 109,472, a decrease of 10,737 compared with August 19 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of August 26, the net long positions of Brent crude oil funds were 109,472, a decrease of 10,737 compared with August 19 [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The oil market experienced a slight rebound this week, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $64.01 and $68.12 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.55% and 0.58% from the previous week [1] - OPEC+ has completed four consecutive production increases since May, with a total increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day from May to July, and an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the highest monthly increase since the Saudi price war in 2020 [2] - The IEA and EIA have adjusted their forecasts for global oil supply and demand, with the IEA predicting a supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day for the year, while the EIA forecasts a 2.28 million barrels per day increase [2][3] - The report highlights a significant decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, with a decrease of 2.392 million barrels reported for the week ending August 22 [3] Supply Summary - OPEC+ plans to increase production by an additional 550,000 barrels per day in September, aiming to fully restore the 2.2 million barrels per day of production capacity that was previously cut [2] - The IEA's August report indicates that non-OPEC+ countries are expected to add 1.3 million barrels per day of supply by 2025, primarily from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Guyana [2] Demand Summary - The IEA has downgraded its demand forecast for emerging markets, particularly for China, Brazil, Egypt, and India, while the EIA has raised its demand forecast for China, Canada, and the U.S. [3] - The IEA's forecast for demand growth in 2025 has been reduced from 700,000 barrels per day to 680,000 barrels per day, marking the lowest growth rate since 2009, excluding the unique macroeconomic events of 2020 [3] Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for U.S. oil and gas companies developing new wells is approximately $65 per barrel, with larger companies having a breakeven price around $61 per barrel [4] - The report indicates that 61% of U.S. oil and gas executives believe that if WTI prices remain at $60 per barrel, their companies will slightly reduce production [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Crude oil remains under the pressure of the large supply narrative in the medium to long term. As the demand side gradually exits the peak season, the imbalance between supply and demand will become more significant. However, the short - term market lacks effective drivers. The potential sanctions caused by the stagnant progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks may lead to a rebound in oil prices next week. Additionally, market information before the September 7th meeting of the eight voluntary - production - cut countries of OPEC+ will also disrupt the market [10]. Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's view: Crude oil was under long - term supply pressure, but short - term data might ease market pessimism and potential changes in Russia - Ukraine talks could trigger a limited - height rebound. This week, oil prices weakened at the beginning due to concerns about the end of the demand peak season and US sanctions on India, and rebounded later due to a positive EIA report and re - assessment of the stalled Russia - Ukraine peace talks [10]. - Fundamental factors: Terminal demand has resilience, but large supply suppresses the monthly spread. Future demand will shift to diesel [10]. - Russia - Ukraine peace talks: Progress is slow. Without substantial progress in the short term, there is a risk of sanctions, which has a positive marginal impact on oil prices [10]. - Policy factors: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was dovish with a hawkish undertone. Attention should be paid to market information during the OPEC+ policy window period (before September 7) [10]. 02 Weekly Highlights - Global near - month spreads: They declined overall in August, indicating a slowdown in immediate supply and demand. Some markets' recent monthly spreads have flattened but remain weak [14]. - Crack spreads: Global crack spreads remained stable this week, but there was a decline in the US Gulf crack spread. Terminal demand is okay, but supply growth is stronger, causing the near - end spread to weaken [16]. - Fundamental quantitative indicators: The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, with the last signal being negative. The forward - looking indicator is also neutral, with the last signal being negative. These indicators have limitations in non - fundamental and impulse - type market situations [19]. - US terminal demand shift: US gasoline demand is lower than last year and the five - year average, indicating weak consumer ability and willingness. After the US Labor Day in early September, demand will shift to diesel due to autumn harvest, and diesel crack spreads may support oil prices [22]. - Russia - Ukraine peace talks impact: The Russia - Ukraine peace process is likely to have a positive impact on oil prices in the short term, especially before there is no substantial progress, as the Trump - Zelensky and Trump - Putin meetings have not led to strong meeting intentions, and the two - week buffer period is about to expire [23]. - Powell's speech: Market generally believes Powell's speech was dovish, but it also has a hawkish side. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is high, but it is not certain. Key data before the September meeting will affect the decision. Fed rate cuts are likely to have a negative impact on oil prices [24]. - OPEC+ production: Kazakhstan is still over - producing significantly, while other countries generally meet production targets according to the OPEC monthly report. OPEC+ is regaining market share, and it plans to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production - cut agreement by the end of September. Attention should be paid to the remaining production - cut agreements, especially information before the September 7 meeting [26]. - North American hurricane forecast: This year's hurricane activity has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it is calmer than last year. Hurricanes can disrupt supply, but currently, there are no hurricanes in the US Gulf, and no potential cyclones are forecasted in the next 7 days [28]. 03 Price, Spread, and Crack - Multiple aspects of price, spread, and crack data are presented, including crude oil futures and spot prices, positions, futures structures, monthly spreads, cross - market spreads, Saudi OSP, and refined product prices and crack spreads [31][33][54]. 04 Supply - Demand and Inventory Balance Sheet - Global supply: Data on global, non - OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil supplies are provided, including historical trends and forecasts [80]. - Non - OPEC supply: Information about the supply of major non - OPEC countries such as the US, the former Soviet Union region, China, and Brazil is presented [82]. - OPEC supply: Details about OPEC's total supply, production, capacity, and supply from major countries and exempt countries are given [85][88][91]. - Global rig count: Data on US, Canadian, North American, and global rig counts are shown [94]. - US crude oil rig: Information about US rig numbers, well completion, and production is provided [96]. - CDU and FCC device shutdown: Data on global, US, Northwest European, and Asian CDU and FCC device shutdown volumes are presented [98][100]. - Global demand: Data on global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil demand are provided, including historical trends and forecasts [102]. - OECD demand: Information about the demand of major OECD countries such as the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan is presented [105]. - Non - OECD demand: Details about the demand of major non - OECD countries such as China, Russia, India, and Brazil are given [108]. - Crude oil inventory: Data on US, OECD, and global crude oil inventories are provided, including historical trends and forecasts [111]. - EIA balance sheet: The EIA balance sheet shows supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes from 2025Q1 to 2026Q2 [131]. 05 EIA Weekly Report and Other - Only the title "5.1 EIA周报主要数据" is provided, and specific data is not given in the content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, the oil price center declined, with WTI falling below the strong support level of $65. In September, as the US crude oil consumption peak season ends, the demand - side support for oil prices will gradually weaken. Along with OPEC's continued production increase, the pressure of supply surplus is expected to rise, and the oil price center is likely to continue to decline. The key price level to watch is $60, which is close to the break - even point of new US shale oil wells. The US crude oil production will be a major variable on the supply side. Potential positives in September include the high probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates and OPEC possibly suspending additional production increases; potential negatives mainly concern the situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If the conflict ends, oil prices may drop significantly. The recommended monitoring ranges are WTI [55, 65] and SC [420, 500] [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与展望 - **Crude Oil Market Review and Outlook**: In August, the oil price center moved down. In September, demand support will weaken, supply surplus pressure will increase, and the oil price center is expected to continue to decline. Key price to watch is $60, and the US crude oil production is a major supply - side variable. Potential positives and negatives exist, and the monitoring ranges are given [9]. 3.2宏观经济 - **IMF's Economic Growth Forecast**: On July 29, the IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2% to 3% due to China's better - than - expected economic growth and lower - than - expected Sino - US tariff levels [22]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: Fed Chair Powell indicated that the risk of the employment market may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in September is 8.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.1%. For October, the probability of maintaining the rate is 4.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 46.8% [9]. 3.3供需和库存 - **Supply**: In July 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 262,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production rose by 170,000 barrels per day to 9.526 million barrels per day, Iraq's decreased by 51,000 barrels per day to 3.902 million barrels per day, and the UAE's increased by 109,000 barrels per day to 3.169 million barrels per day. As of the week ending August 22, US crude oil production was 13.44 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day [10][35][40]. - **Demand**: In July 2025, EIA, OPEC, and IEA monthly reports forecasted the global crude oil demand in 2025 to be 103.54 million, 105.13 million, and 103.74 million barrels per day respectively, with year - on - year increases of 80,000, 129,000, and 70,000 barrels per day compared to 2024. As of the week ending August 22, domestic crude oil processing volume was 14.4842 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,700 tons. In July, crude oil imports were 47.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.50%, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 327.02 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.89% [10][44][57]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending August 22, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserves increased by 800,000 barrels to 404.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels. China's port inventory increased to 28.737 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory increased to 2.52 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons [10][65][71]. 3.4价差和持仓 - **Price Spreads**: WTI's monthly spread has fallen to a low level. As of August 28, WTI M1 - M2 was $0.53 per barrel, and M1 - M6 was $1.58 per barrel. The domestic monthly spread has turned negative. The refined oil cracking spread in the US has declined, while the domestic refined oil cracking spread has remained stable [84][87][89]. - **Positions**: Information on WTI and Brent positions is mentioned, and the SC warehouse receipt volume and total positions have increased [91][94][96]. 3.5总结 - **Strategies**: Different investment strategies are recommended, including futures unilateral, options unilateral, options strategies, and hedging strategies, with corresponding recommended intensities [101].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, influenced by the increase in supply pressure from OPEC+ capacity expansion, lowered global crude oil demand forecasts, and the cooling of geopolitical risks, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a downward trend. The WTI crude oil futures price dropped from $70.51/barrel to $61.45/barrel, with a maximum cumulative decline of 12.85%; the Brent crude oil futures price decreased from $73.17/barrel to $65.01/barrel, a maximum cumulative decline of 11.15%; the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract fell from 528.4 yuan/barrel to 479 yuan/barrel, a maximum cumulative decline of 9.35% [6]. - The macro - atmosphere is warming up. With the weakening of US non - farm payroll data and the rebound of inflation, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and may do so again in December. Meanwhile, the Sino - US trade tariff negotiation has been postponed by 90 days [6]. - From an industrial perspective, OPEC+ will continue to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and the end of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to a slowdown in inventory depletion and a possible shift to inventory accumulation. The cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to reduce the geopolitical premium of crude oil. Therefore, domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the future [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of Domestic and International Crude Oil Futures Trends in August 2025 - Due to the accelerated expansion of OPEC+ production capacity, the reduction of global crude oil demand forecasts by international energy agencies, and the cooling of geopolitical risks, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a downward trend in August 2025 [12]. 2. Improvement in the Macro - atmosphere and Increased Expectations of Fed Interest Rate Cuts - In August 2025, the overseas macro - level maintained an optimistic atmosphere. Sino - US trade tariff risks were temporarily resolved, and the two sides suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days [19]. - Trump's nomination of "dovish" officials to the Fed increased the possibility of interest rate cuts. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September with a probability of 91.5% [20]. 3. Stable Growth of the Domestic Economy in July 2025 - In July 2025, China's economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. Although the manufacturing PMI declined slightly, economic indicators such as industrial added value, social consumption, and foreign trade showed positive trends [33][34][35]. 4. Accelerated Release of OPEC+ Capacity and Aggravated Supply Surplus - OPEC+ has been accelerating production capacity release since the second quarter of 2025. In August and September, it will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day each month, fully restoring the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut in 2023 [55]. - In July 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that global average crude oil supply will increase by 2.1 million barrels per day this year and may increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026 [56][57]. - The upstream investment in US shale oil is still not prosperous, but policy support may increase future oil and gas output. As of July 18, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms decreased, and the daily average crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels [58]. 5. The Peak Crude Oil Demand Season in the Northern Hemisphere is Coming to an End - The peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere is from June to August. In September, the demand for crude oil will weaken, the refinery operating rate will decline, and inventory accumulation pressure will increase [72]. - In August 2025, the three major global energy institutions released different views on the crude oil market. EIA and IEA lowered their price forecasts and demand growth forecasts, while OPEC was more optimistic about the market in 2026 [73][74][75]. 6. Meeting between US and Russian Presidents and Cooling of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In August 2025, the US and Russian presidents held a meeting, but no agreement was reached. The two sides agreed to continue talks in Moscow. Although the Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, it is expected to cool down in the future, which will reduce the geopolitical premium of crude oil [78][79][81]. 7. Slight Increase in China's Crude Oil Imports in July 2025 - In July 2025, China's crude oil production and processing increased. The import volume of refined oil increased slightly year - on - year, but the cumulative import volume from January to July decreased. It is expected that China's crude oil processing and import volume may be restricted by weak demand [86][88]. 8. Significant Decrease in Non - commercial Net Long Positions of European and American Crude Oil in August 2025 - In August 2025, international crude oil futures prices declined, and the net long positions in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets decreased significantly [97]. 9. Summary - In September 2025, the macro - atmosphere will remain warm, but from an industrial perspective, the supply pressure of crude oil will increase, the demand will weaken, and the geopolitical premium will decrease. Therefore, domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [104][105].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The crude oil market continues its short - term rebound, consolidating the sideways oscillation pattern since July. The center of gravity has slightly shifted upwards due to the slow progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation, the peak seasonal demand, and the technical support from the position adjustment during the roll - over period. However, the macro - sentiment is negative, and there is no new driving factor. After late August, demand will decline seasonally, and even if OPEC+ suspends production increase in October, the supply - demand imbalance will put downward pressure on oil prices. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have also decreased. Overall, the recent rebound lacks substantial positive support, with limited upside potential, and the future logic is neutral to bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Multi - Short Analysis - **Bullish Driving Factors (Short - term Support)** - Geopolitical situation sentiment repair: Slow progress in the Russia - Ukraine issue weakens the expectation of a "rapid cooling" of the situation, leading to an emotional repair of the geopolitical risk premium in the crude oil market [4]. - Peak demand season not over: The current peak seasonal demand provides fundamental support for the market and delays price decline [4]. - Technical support from roll - over: At the end of August, the roll - over period of near - month contracts of WTI and Brent crude oil, with "near - month short - position reduction + far - month long - position increase", drives the short - term rebound [4]. - OPEC+ short - term policy expectation: The market generally expects OPEC+ to decide to suspend production increase in October at its September 7th meeting, which may boost market sentiment in the short term [4]. - **Bearish Driving Factors (Medium - to Long - term Dominant)** - Approaching seasonal demand decline: After late August, the end of the US summer travel season and refinery autumn maintenance will lead to a decrease in crude oil processing volume and a seasonal decline in gasoline demand until February - March next year, causing the disappearance of demand - side support [5]. - Rising risk of supply - demand imbalance: Even if OPEC+ suspends production increase, the current high production quota, combined with the seasonal demand decline, will likely lead to an oversupply in the fourth - quarter crude oil market [5]. - Negative macro - sentiment: The increase in the VIX and the correction of the US stock market may suppress the demand for crude oil as a risk asset. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in September has dropped to 75%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts by the end of the year has been reduced from 3 to 2, weakening the expectation of loose liquidity [6]. - Failure to reflect fundamental bearishness: The current crude oil price is still dominated by short - term events and has not priced in the fundamental bearishness of the "fourth - quarter oversupply", and downward pressure will be released once the market focuses on fundamentals [6]. 3.2. Market Dynamics - EIA report: As of the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.41% decline, far exceeding the market expectation. US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a 3.34% increase year - on - year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [7]. - Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has instructed to start negotiations to release all hostages in Gaza and end the war under acceptable conditions [7]. - Singapore: As of the week ending August 20, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.035 million barrels, an eight - week low [7]. - Guyana: Guyana's oil production in July remained almost unchanged at 664,000 barrels per day [7]. - India: India will continue to buy Russian oil despite US pressure. The foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow on August 21 [7]. 3.3. Global Crude Oil Disk Price and Spread Changes The report provides the prices and spreads of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, Oman, Murban) on August 22, 21, and 15, 2025, including daily and weekly price changes, as well as changes in spreads such as EFS spread, monthly spreads [8].