Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil in China is expected to decrease due to the sustained negative change rate of international crude oil prices during the current pricing cycle [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from August 12 to August 26), international crude oil prices have fluctuated within the range of 63-66 USD per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and economic expectations [1]. - The change rate of reference crude oil as of August 22 was -4.41%, indicating a potential reduction in gasoline and diesel prices by approximately 190 CNY per ton [1]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Industries - If the price reduction is confirmed, private car owners filling a 50L tank will save about 7.5 CNY, while a typical fuel-efficient car running 2000 km per month will see a decrease in fuel costs of around 12 CNY before the next pricing window [2]. - For the logistics industry, a heavy truck running 10,000 km per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 km will experience a reduction in fuel costs of approximately 304 CNY before the next pricing window [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there are risks associated with geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia, the international oil price may still find some support due to these factors [2]. - The possibility of a positive change rate in the next pricing cycle is anticipated, influenced by OPEC's production decisions and the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant increase in domestic fuel prices, with a recent rise of nearly 0.2 yuan per liter following a series of price hikes in June, totaling an increase of 560 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1][3][5] - The latest adjustments show that the price of 92/95 gasoline and 0 diesel has increased by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton respectively, leading to a cumulative increase of approximately 0.44-0.48 yuan per liter [1][3] - The current trend suggests a potential decrease in fuel prices in the upcoming adjustment on July 15, as the crude oil price change rate is currently negative, indicating a possible drop of 1.5-1.8 yuan per liter [5][7] Group 2 - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of crude oil is reported at 67.49 USD per barrel, with a crude oil change rate of -4.42%, leading to a projected decrease in domestic fuel prices [5][7] - The U.S. non-farm employment data released recently showed a growth of 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding market expectations, which may alleviate pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, potentially supporting energy demand [5][7] - Despite the positive employment data, uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff measures and unexpected increases in crude oil inventory may lead to continued downward pressure on the oil market [5][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that domestic refined oil prices are set to increase for the third time, effective from July 1 at 24:00, due to fluctuations in international oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][3] - According to Zhaochuang Information, the reference crude oil change rate is currently at 5.41%, leading to an expected increase in retail prices of gasoline and diesel by 235 and 225 yuan per ton respectively, which translates to an increase of 0.18, 0.19, and 0.19 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1][3] - The increase in fuel costs for consumers is illustrated with examples: filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan, while a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 km will see an increase of approximately 13 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment window on July 15 [3] Group 2 - The logistics industry will experience a significant impact, with a heavy-duty truck running 10,000 km per month and consuming 38L per 100 km facing an increase of around 337 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [3] - Despite the recent easing of geopolitical tensions leading to a drop in international oil prices, the upcoming summer demand peak in the U.S. is expected to provide support for oil prices, indicating a potential for continued volatility in the market [3] - The new pricing cycle may present a downward adjustment expectation for domestic refined oil prices, with the next adjustment window scheduled for July 15 at 24:00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China will see a slight increase, impacting consumer fuel costs, with the adjustment window set for June 3 at 24:00 [1] Price Adjustment Details - The current pricing cycle has shown a positive change rate of 1.53% as of June 2, leading to an increase of 65 yuan per ton for gasoline and 60 yuan per ton for diesel [1] - The retail prices for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel will rise by 0.05 yuan per liter, marking the fourth price increase this year [1] Consumer Impact - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92 or 95 gasoline will cost an additional 2.5 yuan [1] - A small private car running 2,000 kilometers a month with an 8L/100km fuel consumption will see an increase of approximately 4 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment on June 17 [1] - A heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers a month with a fuel consumption of 38L/100km will incur an additional fuel cost of about 89 yuan before the next adjustment [1] Market Conditions - The international crude oil prices have been fluctuating downwards due to factors such as easing US-China trade tensions, negotiations between the US and Iran, geopolitical issues in the Middle East, and OPEC+'s planned production increase in July [1] - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by an average of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July to suppress oil prices [1] - The overall geopolitical situation is currently manageable, with ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as between Russia and Ukraine, contributing to macroeconomic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel prices in China have reached a new low ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 0.57 yuan per liter, providing relief for consumers during the holiday period. However, a price increase is expected after the holiday due to the oil price adjustment mechanism [1][3][5]. Price Adjustments - As of May 19, 2023, the 10th price adjustment of the year resulted in a decrease of 0.18 to 0.2 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel, marking a significant drop and bringing 92-octane gasoline back to the "6 yuan era" [1][3]. - Cumulatively, there have been 10 price adjustments this year, with a trend of more decreases than increases, particularly noted in April when international oil prices fell sharply [3][5]. Future Expectations - The 11th price adjustment is anticipated to occur after the Dragon Boat Festival, with predictions of an increase of 40 to 60 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices, indicating a potential upward pressure on prices [5][7]. - Current international oil prices are fluctuating, with WTI at $60.94 per barrel and Brent at $64.15 per barrel, leading to an expected increase of 0.05 to 0.07 yuan per liter in the upcoming adjustment [5][7]. Regional Price Overview - The current prices for 92-octane gasoline across various regions in China range from 6.81 to 8.03 yuan per liter, with specific prices listed for major cities such as Beijing (6.91 yuan) and Shanghai (6.88 yuan) [7].

今晚成品油调价窗口就要开启了，在本轮计价周期内(4月30日24时-5月19日24时)，原油价格跌后回涨带 动原油变化率负值范围回升有限，变化率仍旧处于负值深位运行，成品油零售限价在今晚24时即将迎来 下调。 据卓创资讯分析师王芦青测算：本计价周期前期，市场担忧欧佩克+将提高产量且特朗普关税政策将打 击全球经济，原油价格延续前期跌势。但后期，随着中美达成贸易协议，且市场猜测欧佩克+未来存在 增产暂停的可能性，原油价格呈现偏强运行。受此影响，本计价周期初始，原油变化率处于负值深位， 虽后期有所回升，但幅度有限，本轮成品油零售限价下调方向不变。据卓创资讯数据监测模型显示，截 至5月16日收盘，国内第10个工作日，参考原油变化率-5.07%，预计汽、柴油分别下调230、220元/吨， 折升价92#汽油、95#汽油、0#柴油分别下调0.18、0.19、0.19元。本次下调落实后，2025年，国内成品 油零售限价已有5次下调，国内多地92#汽油，有望自2021年底之后，重新进入"6元时代"，0#柴油亦有 望进入21年以来的低位水平，部分省份降至"6.5元/升"以内。 消费者用油成本减少，以油箱容量为50升的家用轿车为例， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic refined oil retail prices will be adjusted downwards due to a decline in crude oil prices, with a significant impact expected on gasoline prices [1] - The average crude oil price during the current pricing cycle has shown a notable decrease compared to the previous cycle, leading to a negative crude oil price change rate of -5.23% as of May 15 [1] - The expected reduction in retail prices is approximately 230 yuan per ton, translating to a decrease of about 0.18 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, which may bring prices back to the 6 yuan per liter range in multiple regions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market has experienced significant fluctuations, with recent price increases followed by a sharp decline, indicating potential volatility in future oil price adjustments [1][3][5]. Oil Price Adjustments - The latest oil price adjustment occurred on April 2, 2025, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per ton, respectively, translating to an increase of approximately 0.18 to 0.20 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline [1][3]. - The current pricing cycle runs from April 3 to April 17, 2025, with the next adjustment window set for April 17 at 24:00 [3][7]. Market Trends - As of April 4, 2025, the reference crude oil change rate is at 2.91%, suggesting a potential increase of 150 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices in the new cycle, equating to an increase of about 0.12 to 0.13 yuan per liter [3][5]. - Recent data shows a significant drop in international oil prices, with WTI crude at $66.95 per barrel (down 6.64%) and Brent crude at $70.14 per barrel (down 6.42%) [5][7]. Supply and Demand Factors - The increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 6.2 million barrels has raised concerns about oversupply in the market [5]. - The implementation of new tariffs by the U.S. has led to fears of increased inflation and potential impacts on energy demand, complicating the outlook for oil prices [5][7]. Price Predictions - There is a possibility that the current cycle may see oil prices decline after an initial increase, with expectations of a potential drop in prices before the next adjustment [7].