Core Points - The recent adjustment in fuel prices reflects a decrease in gasoline and diesel prices, with gasoline dropping by 70 yuan per ton and diesel by 65 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of approximately 0.05 to 0.06 yuan per liter [1][3] - This marks the 10th decline in fuel prices for 2025, reversing the upward trend observed at the beginning of November [1][3] - The cumulative decrease in fuel prices for the year amounts to 690 yuan per ton for gasoline and 660 yuan per ton for diesel, equating to a drop of over 0.54 yuan per liter compared to the end of 2024 [3] Price Adjustment Analysis - The current pricing cycle began on November 25, 2025, with the next adjustment window set for December 8, 2025, indicating a countdown of 12 days until the next potential price change [3] - The average reference price for crude oil was reported at 61.11 USD per barrel, with a negative change rate of -0.93%, leading to an initial forecast of a 50 yuan per ton decrease in fuel prices [3] - As of November 26, 2025, the average crude oil price was 60.66 USD per barrel, with a further decline of -1.65%, suggesting a potential additional decrease of 90 yuan per ton in fuel prices [3] Market Conditions - The current market conditions indicate a negative adjustment phase for fuel prices, driven by a downward trend in crude oil prices and an oversupply in the international oil market [3] - If the trend of weak crude oil prices continues, further reductions in gasoline and diesel prices are likely, with the possibility of reaching new lows in domestic fuel prices [3]

本计价周期以来（2025年11月10日24时至2025年11月24日24时），国际原油未走出单边行情，整体呈现宽幅波动走势，受此影响，国内参 考的原油变化率始终在负值范围内波动， 成品油零售限价遇年内第十次下调。调价窗口为11月24日24时。 来源：卓创资讯、图片由AIGC生成 11月21日收盘，国内第10个工作日参考原油变化率-1.50%，11月24日24时汽、柴油零售限价每吨分别下调70、65元， 每升价格92、95、 0.05、0.06、0.06元。 本次下调落实后， 消费者用油成本有所下降，油箱容量在50升的小型私家车 加满一箱油将比之前少花2.5元左右。此外，本次下调落实 后，国内实行一省一价的地区 92。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil has been reduced for the tenth time this year, reflecting fluctuations in international oil prices and expectations of reduced supply concerns from Eastern Europe negotiations [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of November 24, the retail prices for gasoline and diesel have been lowered by 70 and 65 yuan per ton, respectively, with specific reductions of 0.05, 0.06, and 0.06 yuan for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1] - The upcoming price adjustment window is set for December 8, with an initial expected reduction of 100 yuan per ton based on the new cycle's negative crude oil change rate [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The international oil price has shown wide fluctuations, with the corresponding crude oil change rate remaining in negative territory [1] - Future negotiations in Eastern Europe are anticipated to alleviate concerns regarding oil supply, potentially putting pressure on the oil market [1]

Price Adjustment - The domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel will be increased by 125 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively, effective from 24:00 on November 10 [1][3] - This marks the seventh increase in domestic retail prices for refined oil this year [3] Cost Impact - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 5 yuan [3] - For a vehicle running 2000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will increase by approximately 7 yuan before the next price adjustment [3] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see an increase of about 177 yuan in fuel costs [3] Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the market is currently experiencing a "weak gasoline and strong diesel" trend, with gasoline prices declining due to weak terminal demand and lack of holiday boosts [4] - Diesel consumption is supported by stable weather and ongoing operations in outdoor industries, leading to increased procurement and overall price support for diesel [4] - Future market focus will be on the oil inventory situation post the U.S. oil demand off-season, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in international oil prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil will be raised, marking the seventh increase in the current cycle, with gasoline and diesel prices up by 125 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively, effective from November 10 at 24:00 [1][2]. Price Adjustment Impact - The price increase will result in an additional cost of 5 yuan for filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline for private car owners. For a vehicle running 2000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will increase by approximately 7 yuan before the next price adjustment [2]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see an increase of about 177 yuan in fuel costs before the next adjustment [2]. Market Analysis - Analysts indicate that the refined oil market is experiencing a "weak gasoline, strong diesel" trend due to differentiated demand. Gasoline prices are declining due to weak terminal demand, while diesel consumption is supported by stable weather and ongoing operations in outdoor industries, leading to a rise in diesel prices [3]. - The overall international crude oil market is expected to continue a narrow fluctuation trend, with attention on the seasonal demand drop in the U.S. and the potential for a negative change in the domestic crude oil reference rate in the next pricing cycle [2][3]. Next Price Adjustment Window - The next price adjustment window is scheduled for November 24 at 24:00 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market has shown a fluctuating downward trend during the current pricing cycle, but the domestic reference crude oil change rate remains positive, indicating a potential increase in domestic refined oil retail prices [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The expected increase in domestic refined oil retail prices will mark the seventh price hike [1] - According to Zhaochuang Information analyst Dai Tiandong, the reference crude oil change rate as of November 7 was 2.82%, predicting an increase of 125 yuan per ton for gasoline and 120 yuan per ton for diesel, with a rise of 0.10 yuan for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1] Group 2: Impact on Consumers - After the price adjustment, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 5 yuan for private car owners [2] - For a vehicle running 2000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will increase by approximately 7 yuan before the next price adjustment window [2] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see an increase of about 177 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [2] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The market will focus on the crude oil inventory situation following the seasonal decline in U.S. oil demand, with macroeconomic factors expected to play a reduced role [2] - The new pricing cycle may start with a negative crude oil change rate, potentially leading to a price reduction of around 70 yuan per ton, with the next adjustment window set for November 24 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil is expected to increase during the current pricing cycle, but the anticipated rise is limited due to fluctuating international crude oil prices and weak demand in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Price Changes - The reference crude oil change rate as of November 6 is 3.12%, indicating an expected increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 135 CNY per ton, translating to an increase of 0.11 CNY per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1] - After the price adjustment, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 5.5 CNY for private car owners [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The recent trade discussions between China and the U.S. have improved market risk appetite, while tensions in South America have supported a temporary rise in crude oil prices [1] - However, increased production from Saudi Arabia and weakened demand in the U.S. have led to rising crude oil inventories, negatively impacting oil prices and resulting in a narrow fluctuation in the overall market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to be lowered significantly, marking the ninth reduction this year, with a predicted decrease of approximately 300 yuan/ton for both gasoline and diesel [1][2][3]. Price Adjustment Expectations - The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is set to occur on October 27, with expectations of a reduction exceeding 50 yuan/ton [1]. - The current reference crude oil change rate stands at -6.93%, indicating a strong likelihood of price cuts for gasoline and diesel [2]. - Analysts predict that the prices for 92 gasoline and 0 diesel will decrease by 0.24 yuan/liter and 0.26 yuan/liter, respectively [2]. Historical Context - Since 2025, there have been twenty rounds of price adjustments, resulting in six increases, eight decreases, and six instances of no change [3]. - The cumulative price reductions for gasoline and diesel since the end of last year are 480 yuan/ton and 460 yuan/ton, respectively [3]. Market Trends - Recent data shows that the average market price for 92 gasoline is 7418 yuan/ton, down 3.18% from the previous adjustment cycle, while diesel is at 6451 yuan/ton, down 1.78% [5]. - The overall supply remains stable, but demand has weakened, contributing to a bearish market sentiment [5]. - Analysts express caution regarding future oil prices, noting that geopolitical factors and production adjustments could influence market dynamics [5].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic atmosphere remains cautious, leading to continued low fluctuations in crude oil futures prices, with expectations for a reduction in retail fuel prices due to negative changes in crude oil reference rates [1] Oil Market Analysis - The reference crude oil change rate as of October 23 is -6.93%, indicating an expected reduction of 300 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, with the adjustment window set for October 27 at 24:00 [1] - Kuwait's statement about potentially canceling production cuts to address any oil shortages suggests that actual supply disruptions are unlikely, reducing market anxiety and indicating a risk of oil price decline [1] - With only one working day left before the price adjustment, it is highly probable that the negative fluctuation in the change rate will persist, leading to a likely downward adjustment in retail fuel prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices have significantly decreased, leading to an expected reduction in domestic fuel prices in China, with a notable drop in retail prices anticipated on October 13 [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - As of October 10, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with New York crude oil futures falling below $60 per barrel, marking a five-month low [3]. - On October 10, New York crude oil futures dropped by 5.32% to close at $58.24 per barrel, while Brent crude futures fell by 4.8% to $62.09 per barrel [3]. - Year-to-date, New York crude oil futures have decreased by 18.8%, and Brent crude futures have fallen by 16.81% [3]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - According to Zhaochuang Information, as of October 11, the reference crude oil change rate was -1.87%, indicating an expected reduction of 80 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [3]. - This upcoming price adjustment on October 13 will mark the eighth reduction in domestic fuel retail prices this year, potentially lowering consumer fuel costs further [3]. - The current pricing cycle has seen international crude oil prices primarily trending downward, influencing domestic reference crude oil rates [3].