Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday. After consecutive contractions in supply, market sentiment has improved, but with the upcoming fourth round of coke price cut, the market remains cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][5][33] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin reduced the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday [2][5] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In May, the crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 18.47 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase, and the coal output was 4.0 billion tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. China's crude steel output in May was 86.55 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year decrease; and steel output was 127.43 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase [7] - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a 10.7% year - on - year decrease. The housing construction area decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [8] - The state has allocated 162 billion yuan of the 300 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner [8] - The June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [8] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the rate unchanged since January. The dot - plot shows two expected interest rate cuts in 2025, and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027 [8] - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. Some steel mills in Xingtai also made the same price cuts [9] 3. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia that previously halted or reduced production due to environmental protection and other reasons have not resumed production, and there are new停产 mines this week, resulting in a continued slight reduction in supply. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 85 vehicles, remaining at a low level [33] - On the demand side, coke production decreased slightly. After the previous continuous decline in coal prices, some resources became more cost - effective, leading to appropriate purchases by downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links, which alleviated the inventory pressure on upstream coal mines. This week, the iron water output was 2.4218 million tons, a 0.57 - million - ton increase from last week [2][33] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Investment strategies include mainly conducting range operations for single - side trading, adopting a wait - and - see approach for inter - period arbitrage, and also waiting and seeing for coking profit [3][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Weak Oscillation" rating for the coking coal and coke sectors in the black industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The delay of the tariff policy has boosted the sentiment in the black industry, but now the sentiment - based trading is basically completed. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are running weakly. Although the apparent demand of the five major steel products has rebounded this week, the pig iron output has begun to decline, and steel mills still have the intention to further lower the prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Review - The Jm2509 contract closed at 883.0, down 1.29% from the previous trading day's close. The J2505 contract closed at 1472.0, down 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, the Jm2509 contract closed at 864.5, down 2.10% from the day - session close, and the J2509 contract closed at 1456.0, down 1.09% from the day - session close [1] Important Information - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 883.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.82 million tons or 0.7%. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1430.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.41 million tons or 3.1%. The weekly consumption of the five major products was 913.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8%. Among them, the consumption of building materials increased by 16.2% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates increased by 5.2% week - on - week [1] - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 200.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 606.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 27.0 million tons [1] - Today, the first round of price cuts for coke began to be implemented, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The delay of the tariff policy has boosted the sentiment in the black industry, but now the sentiment - based trading is basically completed. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are running weakly. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi has been lowered again, there are more unsuccessful online auctions, and the transaction prices are mainly decreasing. The first round of price cuts for coke has basically been implemented. Although the apparent demand of the five major steel products has rebounded this week, the pig iron output has begun to decline. Steel mills still have the intention to further lower the prices. Attention should be paid to China's direct or indirect steel export data [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, coking coal will mainly fluctuate widely in the range of 850 - 900, and coke will fluctuate in the range of 1440 - 1500. It will face pressure and fall back above the range. Short - term short positions can be held continuously [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report believes that there is still rigid demand support, but downstream procurement is cautious, market sentiment continues to cool, and prices lack effective support. With continuous disturbances from crude steel production restrictions and medium - to long - term overcapacity pressure, the short - term futures market performance is expected to be weak with oscillations [2][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal mostly dropped by 20 - 30 yuan/ton this week. On the 9th, the domestic coking coal market fluctuated weakly. The price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal was 1,270 yuan/ton [5]. - The domestic coke price remained stable this week. The hope for the second round of coke price increase has basically failed, and there are rumors that steel mills will propose a coke price cut next week [5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced measures such as reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, lowering the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, and reducing the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points. The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will support Central Huijin [7]. - In April, the year - on - year CPI decreased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 2.7%. From January to April, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2% [8]. - In late April 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.02 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.202 million tons (a 1.2% decrease month - on - month), 19.6 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.96 million tons (a 0.3% decrease month - on - month), and 22.74 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.274 million tons (a 7.6% increase month - on - month) [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Downstream steel mills are operating well, and the high - level operation of pig iron output provides rigid support for coke demand. However, due to the weakening of billet prices, market expectations are cautious [2]. - Coking coal production remains high, and inventory is at a high level. Under the situation of strong supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent, and the market price fluctuates steadily [2]. - Affected by the off - season of steel consumption, steel mills have obvious expectations of maintenance and production reduction, and downstream procurement of raw materials is passive. But currently, steel mills are profitable, and the current high pig iron output provides good support for raw material prices in the short term, so a sharp decline in coking coal is unlikely [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The short - term futures market is expected to be weak with oscillations. The investment strategies are: for single - side trading, combine shorting at high prices with range trading; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profit, mainly wait and see [32][33].