交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-16 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货948元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1039元/吨，基差为-91元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5822.70万重量箱，较前一周减少2.04%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单 ...

来源：@华夏时报微博 华夏时报记者 张玫 北京报道 12月12日，由华夏时报社主办的第十九届华夏机构投资者年会暨华夏金融（保险）科技论坛在北京举行。鹏华基 金指数与量化投资部基金经理闫冬在论坛上分享了他的市场洞察。 他表示，2025年有色金属板块的强劲表现超出预期，其背后是供给刚性、新兴需求及全球库存转移等多重因素共 同支撑的新周期逻辑。同时，他强调当前"反内卷"政策正从法治化和约束地方政府投资冲动等根本层面重塑行业 生态，为布局价格修复与盈利改善的顺周期方向带来了中期机遇。 有色金属强势背后：供给刚性遇上"新叙事"，周期逻辑发生深刻变化 复盘2025年市场，闫冬坦言，以有色金属为代表的周期板块表现之强劲"比较意外"。他指出，尽管科技方向涨幅 领先，但有色金属板块几乎与之并驾齐驱，"甚至很长一段时间保持在第一的位置"，部分品类年内涨幅接近 80%，这促使他深入思考本轮周期的特殊性。 闫冬总结，本轮行情与过往由供给过剩引发投资扩张、继而导致价格下跌的经典周期模式"有很大的不同"。核心 变化在于供给端与需求端同时出现了结构性新约束。 在供给端，以铜为代表的资源品面临严峻的产能瓶颈。"不仅仅是短期投产要五六年才能出 ...

"中国当前的宏观经济工作，已经从短期的风险应对模式，转向更加注重中长期经济转型的模式。"近 期，渣打银行大中华区及北亚首席经济学家丁爽在接受南方+记者采访时表示。 他认为，2026年中国经济面临的外部环境较2025年有望趋于平稳，宏观政策也将逐步回归中长期视角， 把重心更多放在提升潜在增长率、培育新动能上，为"十五五"开局夯实基础。 放眼全球，当前世界经济仍在韧性增长与多重不确定性之间摆动。 明年全球增长动能将如何在消费与投资之间切换？在这一外部环境下，中国经济又将如何更好把握"稳 增长"与"促转型"的节奏？如何看待所谓"AI泡沫论"、外资配置中国资产、中国"反内卷"政策走向、房 地产市场调整进程？围绕这些问题，丁爽给出了前瞻性分析。 全球经济仍面临多重风险 预计黄金价格继续上行至4750美元/盎司 南方+：展望中国宏观经济走势，你有哪些观察？ 丁爽：我们认为，中国当前的宏观经济工作，已经从短期的风险应对模式，转向更加注重中长期经济转 型的模式。这一变化与外部环境阶段性趋稳密切相关。 去年底中央提出"超常规逆周期调节"，主要是应对外部冲击；而近期提出的"加大逆周期和跨周期调节 力度"，在强调稳增长的同时，引入 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overall, the demand side of coking coal and coke may not have much driving force. On the supply side, domestic coal mines are expected to face policy constraints on coal production release in the future, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in supply. The increment of Mongolian coal imports is expected to be an important supplement to domestic production, with significant potential for growth. Coke production capacity is still in an over - supply stage, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to remain under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, as it is the beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the country's macro - policies are expected to be positive, and the market may bottom out and rebound if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented [8]. Summary by Directory Annual Viewpoint and Strategy - **Supply**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports were lower year - on - year, mainly due to high inventories and weak demand. In the second half, Mongolian coal imports rebounded. In 2026, with a cap on domestic coal production, Mongolian coal is expected to be an important supply supplement. China's coke production from January to October 2025 was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production may remain flat year - on - year [8]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is differentiated, with strong plate demand and weak building material demand, weak domestic demand and strong export demand. Steel exports are expected to remain strong in 2026, but domestic demand is still a concern. Real estate investment and new construction data are expected to decline by double - digits year - on - year, and manufacturing investment may also face a slowdown [8]. - **Inventory**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal inventory was highly differentiated between upstream and downstream, with upstream inventory reaching a record high and downstream inventory remaining low. In the second half, inventory transferred from upstream to downstream. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also decreased, with an average inventory level higher than last year [8]. - **Viewpoint**: The demand for coking coal and coke may lack driving force. Domestic coal production is restricted by policies, and imports mainly depend on Mongolian coal. Coke production capacity is in surplus, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to be under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, positive macro - policies may lead to a market rebound [8]. - **Strategy**: After the coking coal main contract stabilizes after a pullback, it can be bought in batches, with a reference support level of 900 - 950 yuan/ton [8]. Market Review - **Q1**: Coking coal and coke continued to decline due to oversupply, with prices moving down. Domestic spot prices weakened, and upstream inventory increased due to insufficient downstream demand [14]. - **Q2**: Coking coal and coke remained weak, testing cost support. Global macro - disturbances and high inventory led to price drops, and the supply - demand mismatch persisted [14]. - **Q3**: Coking coal and coke prices rebounded significantly due to tightened supply expectations caused by coal production checks [14]. - **Q4**: Coking coal and coke prices first rose and then fell. Supply tightened in October, but the market sentiment weakened in November due to energy supply guarantee signals [14]. International Situation - **Global economic growth**: Global steel production growth has slowed down, with developed economies recovering weakly. Asian regions led by India are a new growth pole for iron ore demand, but it is difficult to fully offset China's decline [18]. - **Supply country pattern**: Australia, the US, and Canada are major suppliers of high - quality coking coal, but their exports to China are affected by various factors [18]. - **Global coking coal trade flow**: Mongolia and Russia's export increments are being released, and their coking coal imports are important variables that can impact the domestic market [18]. - **"Green premium" institutionalization**: The global carbon pricing system is forcing the steel industry to transform to a low - carbon path, which will affect long - term coking coal demand [18]. Domestic Situation - **Real estate**: In 2025, the new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the decline in the real estate market reduced the demand elasticity for coking coal and coke [22]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2026, fiscal stimulus for traditional infrastructure will be weaker, and policies will focus on high - strength and special steel fields, with limited impact on coking coal and coke demand [22]. - **Manufacturing**: Exports of automobiles, home appliances, and ships remain stable, but steel mills' profit margins are compressed, and it is difficult to achieve positive growth in crude steel production [22]. - **Coal consumption**: Coal consumption will peak during the 15th Five - Year Plan and then enter a 10 - year plateau. The policy focus will shift from "supply guarantee" to "carbon control + safety" [22]. - **Coal price mechanism**: In 2026, a new mechanism for thermal coal long - term contracts will be implemented, with more market - oriented pricing and a narrower price fluctuation range, which will indirectly provide a valuation anchor for coking coal [22]. Macroeconomic Policies - **High - quality development**: The steel raw material market will build a policy support system around "low - carbon transformation, resource security, and structural optimization" during the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the traditional supply - demand logic is being broken [27]. - **Green and low - carbon policies**: Green and low - carbon policies will be intensified, and the proportion of electric arc furnace steel is expected to increase to 20% - 25% to achieve carbon reduction goals [27]. - **"Anti - involution" and supply - side reform**: The 15th Five - Year Plan will emphasize high - quality development, and policies on coal and other traditional industries will be more restrictive, with tightened coal production capacity and long - term supervision on over - production [27]. Fundamentals - **Industrial chain structure**: Multiple charts show the price trends of coking coal and coke contracts, spreads between contracts, spot prices, inventory levels, import volumes, production rates, and output of related enterprises [33][38][42] - **Inventory**: As of December 12, 2025, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased slightly compared to the beginning of the year, while the clean coal inventory decreased by 33.36%. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased in 2025. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also showed a downward trend [59]. - **Imports**: From January to October 2025, coking coal imports decreased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in Mongolian coal imports. Australian coal imports decreased by 10%, and Russian coal imports increased by 4%. In 2026, Mongolian coal imports are expected to be an important supply supplement [73][77]. - **Production**: From January to October 2025, China's raw coal production was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, and coke production was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production is expected to remain flat year - on - year [81][83]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was close to 2.38 million tons per day, a year - on - year increase of nearly 4%. From January to November 2025, steel exports reached 107.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.33%. In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain strong, but domestic demand is still a concern [90]. - **Profit**: The profit of independent coking plants is significantly affected by profit levels. In 2025, the profit per ton of coke decreased year - on - year, and there were only opportunities for repair when coking coal prices decreased or steel mills replenished inventory [104]. Technical Analysis - Technically, the prices of coking coal and coke are in a downward channel, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement and no obvious signs of a stop - fall. It is expected that there will be strong support around 900 yuan/ton on the weekly Bollinger Bands lower rail, and it is necessary to observe whether the coking coal price can stop falling and stabilize around this level [108].

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张玫 北京报道 12月12日，由华夏时报社主办的第十九届华夏机构投资者年会暨华夏金融（保险）科技论坛在北京举 行。鹏华基金指数与量化投资部基金经理闫冬在论坛上分享了他的市场洞察。 他表示，2025年有色金属板块的强劲表现超出预期，其背后是供给刚性、新兴需求及全球库存转移等多 重因素共同支撑的新周期逻辑。同时，他强调当前"反内卷"政策正从法治化和约束地方政府投资冲动等 根本层面重塑行业生态，为布局价格修复与盈利改善的顺周期方向带来了中期机遇。 "反内卷"政策重塑投资逻辑：法治化控产能，核心在于约束地方投资冲动 将视角转回国内，闫冬重点分析了"反内卷"政策带来的投资影响。他认为，该政策自2025年7月发力 后，对市场风格再平衡起到了关键作用，并以鹏华旗下化工ETF规模从二季度的十几亿大幅增长至三季 度的近两百亿为例，说明机构资金正积极博弈PPI修复的预期。 他对比了本轮"反内卷"与2016年供给侧改革的差异。当前产能过剩问题遍布更多行业，且民营企业参与 度深，单纯依靠行政手段已难以快速奏效。因此，本次政策的核心路径转向"依法依规"，通过修订《价 格法》《反不正当竞争法 ...

"从盈利预期看，物价有望合理回升，结构盈利修复可期。宏观层面，政策组合发力助推2026年物价合 理回升。"谭倩认为，政策强调提质增效，针对当前经济"供强需弱"的特征，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，积极有效扩大国内需求，深入整治内卷式 竞争，着力稳定房地产市场，深化重点领域改革等，推动供需结构的持续改善，她预计2026年PPI同比 降幅稳步收窄直至转正，物价回升前景可期。 谭倩表示，三大支撑助力2026年企业盈利修复。第一是新质生产力逐步成为经济增长新引擎。随着我国 现代化产业体系建设加快推进，新质生产力稳步发展，人工智能、生物医药、新能源等新兴产业快速发 展，并成为经济增长的重要助推力，中央经济工作会议明确"加紧培育壮大新动能"，2026年新兴产业的 增长弹性会进一步凸显。第二是反内卷政策有望进一步深化提速。反内卷是"扩大内需、优化供给"的重 要抓手，主要举措是加快统一大市场建设、优化市场竞争秩序、加强重点行业产能治理、规范地方招商 引资行为，多措并举，优化供需格局。现阶段反内卷已在光伏、锂矿、化工等局部产业环节初有成效， 后续伴随政策表述转向"深入整治"，反内 ...

东吴证券近日发布建筑材料行业跟踪周报：本周（2025.12.6–2025.12.12，下同）建筑材料板块（SW） 涨跌幅-1.41%，同期沪深300、万得全A指数涨跌幅分别为-0.08%、0.26%，超额收益分别 为-1.33%、-1.67%。全国高标水泥市场价格为354.8元/吨，较上周+0.2元/吨，较2024年同期-69.2元/吨。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 本周（2025.12.6–2025.12.12，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅-1.41%，同期沪深300、万得全 A指数涨跌幅分别为-0.08%、0.26%，超额收益分别为-1.33%、-1.67%。 大宗建材基本面与高频数据：（1）水泥：本周全国高标水泥市场价格为354.8元/吨，较上周+0.2元/ 吨，较2024年同期-69.2元/吨。较上周价格持平的地区：长三角地区、长江流域地区、华北地区、东北 地区、华东地区；较上周价格上涨的地区：泛京津冀地区（+3.3元/吨）、两广地区（+15.0元/吨）、中 南地区（+8.3元/吨）；较上周价格下跌的地区：西南地区（-6.0元/吨）、西北地区（-3.0元/吨）。本周 全国样本企业平均水泥 ...

中国宏观经济 2026 年年报 中国宏观经济：今朝虽未开盛宴 街头巷尾已 闻钟 ——2025 年中国宏观经济回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 宏观金融与航运团队 李彦森 Z0013871 ➢ 摘要： 2025 年以来经济整体走弱，四个季度 GDP 增速逐步下行，即使排除四季度基数因 素，增量贡献也有所减弱。从需求角度看，消费表现稳定是主要支持，背后以来消费 补贴等政策驱动，本质仍是财政政策的出口。净出口带动力先升后降，整体表现超预 期，且绝对贡献超过投资。投资表现不佳，贡献相对最低。尤其是三季度开始进一步 走弱。其中地产维持长期下行趋势不变，基建投资受到资金端影响，制造业投资与中 美贸易冲突后企业信心变动有关。此外，年内经济运行逻辑出现明显两段变动：上半 年是高实际增速叠加通缩，名义 GDP 表现并不佳；下半年转向通缩修复同时产出减 速，名义 GDP 放缓程度收窄。"反内卷"政策是最主要的影响因素，且其局部性影响 仍将继续体现。我们认为，2026 年库存周期将迎来修复，节奏上看底部或位于二季度， 全年经济将呈现前低后高态势，内生动能有所增强。同时中美贸易紧张关系缓和，逆 全球化趋势放慢后也有利于外 ...

政策定调提质增效，助力 2026 年 A 股盈利驱动 行情 —点评报告 事件 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议分析 当前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 15 日 ▌ 政策聚焦提质增效，发展质量重要性凸显 2025 年中央经济工作会议整体基调延续"稳中有进"的表 述，提出五个新"必须"，"以进促稳"替换为"提质增 效"，从增量扩张转为存量提质增效，在保障经济合理增长 的同时，强调发展质量的提升，物价合理回升，产业向新向 优。 ▌ 物价有望合理回升，结构盈利修复可期 宏观层面，政策组合发力助推 2026 年物价合理回升。预计 2026 年 PPI 同比降幅稳步收窄直至转正，物价回升前景可 期。 中观层面，三大支撑助力 2026 年企业盈利修复：①新质生产 力逐步成为经济增长新引擎：中央经济工作会议明确"加紧 培育壮大新动能"，2026 年新兴产业的增长弹性会进一步凸 显；②反内卷政策有望进一步深化提速：现阶段反内卷已在 光伏、锂矿、化工等局部产业环节初有成效，后续伴随政策 表述转向"深入整治"，反内卷政策有望在多个重点行业加 速推进，逐步解 ...

RatingsDirect® 中国信用周期转向，政府着力解决内卷和债务问题 2025 年 11 月 11 日 中国的信用下行周期迎来尾声。但地方债务负担和激烈的国内竞争正在侵蚀银行的资本水平，威胁企 业的可持续生存，并使第三次经济泡沫的风险上升。该观点来自标普全球评级举办的"中国信用观 察"会议的与会嘉宾。 与会嘉宾包括标普全球评级分析师，以及来自安联、平安、联博和法国外贸银行的固收或经济研究首 席。会议于 2025 年 9 月 17 日举行，正值中国共产党的二十届四中全会召开前夕。四中全会通过了 中国的第十五个五年规划草案。与会嘉宾对"十五五"规划提出的关键问题进行了讨论，包括： 2025 年中国信用观察会议议题及嘉宾 | 主持人 | 特邀嘉宾 | 标普全球评级分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | 议题：贸易紧张关系和高效增长——将如何影响中国企业？ | | | | 李国宜，董事总经理，地区业务负 | 曾铮，全球固定收益首席投资官， | 陈锦荣，董事总经理，行业首席， | | 责人，亚太区，标普全球评级 | 安联投资有限公司 | 亚太区主权评级，标普全球评级 | | 议题：美国加征关税，内 ...