Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for LLDPE is "Range-bound oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, due to the influence of anti - involution in China, the overall commodity sentiment is strong, but there is a risk that the trade war may exceed expectations in August. Under the background of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in a range - bound market for now. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand support, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures yesterday was 7215, with a daily change of 0.00%. The trading volume was 181,546 and the open interest decreased by 2617. The 09 - contract basis was - 135 (compared to - 114 the previous day), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 20 (compared to - 11 the previous day). The important spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080, 7160, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decline from the previous day [1] Spot News - This week, the domestic PE market prices oscillated and declined. The crude oil market maintained an oscillating trend, and the linear futures were generally weak. The downstream factory orders were limited, the enthusiasm for starting work was low, and the intention to purchase raw materials was weak. The sales of petrochemical and trading companies were blocked, and the overall trading volume was limited despite the price decline [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macroscopically, the short - term domestic commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. The polyethylene fundamentals have not improved. The supply pressure is increasing as the maintenance volume in July will be less than that in June and the new production capacity in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The demand support is weak, and although the inventory was previously low year - on - year, it is gradually accumulating. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 77.79%, a decrease of 1.67% from the previous period, mainly due to more maintenance of existing devices [2] Demand - side Situation - The downstream of polyethylene is still in the off - season, with weak terminal orders and cautious enterprise inventory preparation. The shed film industry is in the traditional off - season, with only a slight increase in the operating rate in some areas. The procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high, and the raw material inventory level is lower than last year. Some food and daily - chemical packaging films have short - term rigid demand support, but the continuous replenishment is insufficient. The operating rates of PE hollow and pipes are lower than the same period last year [3][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the euro has a significant anti-inflation effect [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member, Villeroy, emphasized the positive impact of the euro's strength on controlling inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant reduction in foreign tourists visiting the U.S. may contribute to lowering inflation, providing a potential relief for the Federal Reserve in its fight against rising prices [1] Group 1: Tourist Trends - The average number of foreign tourists flying into the U.S. has decreased by approximately 4% this year [1] - When including those driving into the U.S., the number of visitors from Canada has dropped by 15% [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The decline in tourism has unexpectedly resulted in beneficial anti-inflation effects, as evidenced by a 1.3% month-over-month decrease in accommodation inflation in April [1] - Airfare prices have decreased by 7.9%, contributing to an overall reduction in the inflation rate by nearly 0.1 percentage points [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Context - Amid rising tariffs that are pushing up goods prices, the drop in foreign tourists may serve as a welcomed source of downward pressure on inflation for the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the UK labor market will continue to weaken, leading the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy [1] Labor Market Analysis - The unemployment rate is expected to rise above the Bank of England's modal forecast, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [1] - In May, employment numbers decreased by 109,000, marking the most significant drop since May 2020, which paints a concerning picture of the labor market [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will decrease from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to a low of 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - US non-farm payrolls in May slightly exceeded expectations, but previous two months' data were significantly revised downwards; unemployment rate remains stable, and average hourly earnings were better than expected; bets on Fed rate cuts have decreased [2] - Fed's Harker calls for patience, stating that it is not the time for preemptive measures [2] - Fed Governor Bowman suggests proposing changes to the regulatory ratings for large banks; regulatory agencies will soon announce proposals to enhance the supplementary leverage ratio [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Insights - ECB Governing Council member Holzmann expresses differing opinions on this week's interest rate decision, stating that the current nominal neutral rate is around 3% [3] - ECB Governing Council member Vujcic indicates that the current round of rate cuts is nearing its end [4] - ECB Governing Council member Centeno states that interest rates will stabilize around 2% for the foreseeable future [5] Group 3: Other Central Bank Developments - New Zealand's Chief Economist Conway mentions that lower interest rates will promote economic growth in the second half of the year [4] - The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering slowing the pace of its bond purchase reduction [5] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida states that Japan is gradually entering a phase of rising interest rates [5] - Bank of England member Green notes a short-term rebound in prices, but deflationary trends will continue [5] - ECB Governing Council member Escrivá suggests that the path for the benchmark interest rate may require slight adjustments [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Greene, indicates that while there is a short-term rebound in consumer prices, the anti-inflation efforts will continue [1] Group 1 - Greene acknowledges that consumer price growth has accelerated in the short term, but the process of combating inflation is still ongoing [1] - It is expected that inflation rates will continue to rise in the third quarter of this year, despite the current short-term price peaks [1] - Greene projects that inflation rates will decline to the target of 2% in the medium term [1] Group 2 - Greene is recognized as one of the most hawkish officials at the Bank of England, supporting a recent 25 basis point rate cut to 4.25% [1] - Despite the rate cut, Greene and other policymakers are inclined to maintain borrowing costs at their current levels [1]

英国央行货币政策委员格林：反通胀进程仍在进行中。 ...

Group 1 - The global economic environment remains fragile and highly unstable according to the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India [1] - The final phase of global anti-inflation efforts is expected to be prolonged [1]

金十数据6月1日讯，英国央行负责金融稳定的副行长莎拉·布里登在接受《星期日泰晤士报》采访时表 示，英国劳动力市场正在松动，且"反通胀浪潮"仍在继续。布里登表示，工人议薪能力和企业通过涨价 转嫁成本的空间都在下降。4月通胀率升至3.5%仅是"阶段性驼峰"，反通胀可能会持续下去。布里登表 示，2008年后实施的银行隔离规则需"强有力证据"才可调整，因英国作为全球性金融中心面临"海内外 双重风险"。她还表示，在放宽资本缓冲和放松对高风险抵押贷款的限制等领域有促进经济增长的空 间，目前正在就此进行磋商。 英国央行副行长：英国劳动力市场正在松动 "反通胀浪潮"仍在继续 ...

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：关税在短期内可能具有反通胀作用，但在中期会带来上行风险。 ...