Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the commercial aerospace industry [4] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to transition from initial scale expansion to a critical development phase focused on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement by 2026, as highlighted in a recent speech by President Xi Jinping [8] - The introduction of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's guidelines for commercial rocket companies is anticipated to accelerate the IPO process for private enterprises in the sector, particularly those with reusable rocket technology [8] - The efficiency of satellite constellation deployment is expected to improve, driven by advancements in rocket capacity and cost control, with reusable rockets playing a crucial role [8] - The concept of space computing is moving towards practical implementation, with SpaceX planning an IPO in 2026, which may influence domestic developments in space computing [8] Summary by Sections - **Rocket Sector**: The report indicates that 2026 will see the listing of main rocket manufacturers and a potential turning point for reusable technology, which is expected to enhance the launch capabilities of private companies [8] - **Satellite Sector**: The report emphasizes that the acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite launches will depend on the management of launch costs and rocket capacity, with reusable rockets being a key driver [8] - **Space Computing**: The report outlines a government-led initiative to develop a multi-core plan for space computing, focusing on specialized computing constellations and the integration of terrestrial and space computing capabilities [8] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on leading companies in rocket components and satellite operations, which are likely to benefit from increased launch capacity and reduced costs [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Blue Arrow Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. has officially received acceptance for its IPO application on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 7.5 billion yuan for reusable rocket capacity and technology enhancement projects [1] - The IPO application is significantly influenced by recent policy changes, specifically the guidelines released by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on December 26, which aim to promote innovation in the commercial aerospace sector [1] - Blue Arrow Aerospace has not yet achieved profitability, which aligns with the characteristics of the commercial aerospace industry that involves high investment and long cycles, allowing it to apply for listing under the fifth set of standards on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] Group 2 - The company has been active in technical validation, with the recent successful launch of the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket on December 3, which included China's first attempt at recovering a rocket's first stage [1] - This flight validated the structural thermal protection and aerodynamic layout design during the "supersonic re-entry aerodynamic gliding phase," and tested the combined control strategy of the cold gas reaction control system and grid fins [1] - The funds raised from the IPO are intended to accelerate the engineering and commercialization process of the liquid oxygen-methane reusable technology route [1]

Currency and Economic Policy - The RMB to USD exchange rate broke the 7.0 mark on December 30, 2025, with an annual appreciation exceeding 4% [1][9] - The Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut of the year has led to a general decline in domestic bank USD deposit rates, with most falling below 3% [1][9] - The combination of currency appreciation and declining interest rates has effectively neutralized the interest income from USD deposits [1][9] Consumer Subsidies - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new subsidy policy for replacing old household appliances, effective in 2026 [1][10] - Consumers can receive a subsidy of 15% of the sales price for purchasing energy-efficient appliances, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan per item [1][10] Economic Rankings - Indian media reported that India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy, based on purchasing power parity [1][11] - Predictions indicate that India may surpass Germany within the next three years, potentially becoming the third-largest economy globally [1][11] Market Trends - The domestic futures market experienced significant declines in precious metals and some non-ferrous commodities on December 30, 2025, with platinum and palladium futures hitting the limit down [2][12] - Analysts suggest that the recent downturn is not due to a deterioration in fundamentals but rather a response to previous rapid price increases and regulatory cooling measures [2][12] - The market is expected to enter a period of volatility, with recommendations for investors to adopt a defensive strategy and manage risk carefully [2][12] Household Savings - A new household savings classification system categorizes savings into six levels, with most households falling into the second tier (100,000 to 300,000 yuan) [3][13] - Only 0.37% of households have savings exceeding 500,000 yuan, indicating a concentration of wealth in lower tiers [3][13] Corporate Developments - Moutai announced that its flagship product, the 53-degree 500ml Flying Moutai, will be available on its official self-operated platform "i Moutai" starting in 2026 [3][14] - This move aims to enhance market-oriented transformation and ensure fair access for consumers while stabilizing market dynamics [3][14] Real Estate Taxation - The Ministry of Finance introduced a new regulation requiring individuals to pay a 3% value-added tax on the sale of homes purchased less than two years prior, effective January 1, 2026 [6][15] - Homes held for two years or more will be exempt from this tax, with previous policies being abolished [6][15] Tax Regulations - The State Council released the "Implementation Regulations of the Value-Added Tax Law," effective January 1, 2026, detailing taxpayer obligations and tax rate applications [7][16] - The regulations aim to enhance tax administration and ensure effective implementation of the value-added tax law [7][16]

Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing increased interest from major funds, driven by policy breakthroughs and advancements in rocket capacity [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has introduced guidelines for commercial rocket companies to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, providing a clear path for IPOs and reflecting strong national support for the aerospace strategy [1] - Reusable rockets are seen as a key factor in shaping the future competitive landscape of the industry, with significant test flights planned to establish a foundation for low-cost, high-frequency launches by 2026 [2] Policy and Market Developments - The new listing guidelines require commercial rocket companies to demonstrate successful orbital launches using reusable technology, marking a significant regulatory shift [1] - Companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace have completed IPO counseling, indicating a positive trend in capital market engagement for the sector [1] Technological Advancements - The economic viability of rocket launches is heavily influenced by the cost of the first stage, which accounts for 60% of total costs; reusable technology is crucial for cost reduction [2] - The competition for near-Earth orbit resources is intensifying, necessitating improvements in domestic launch capabilities to keep pace with international players like SpaceX [2] Investment Opportunities - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, with specific investment opportunities identified in three key areas: - Rocket manufacturing and core supply chain, benefiting companies like Aerospace Power, Superjet, Srey New Materials, and Highhua Technology [3][4] - Satellite manufacturing, operations, and space applications, with potential gains for firms such as China Science and Technology, Aerospace Hongtu, China Satellite, and Qianzhao Optoelectronics [3][4] - Testing and validation services, where demand is expected to rise for companies like Aerospace Hanyu, West Measurement, Su Testing, and Broadcast Measurement [3][4]

据Wind数据，12月29日商业航天再迎主力资金青睐。商业航天持续火热，近日又出现哪些利好因素？投资者又该如何把握机遇？请看机构最新研判。 近期，商业航天板块热度持续升温，其核心驱动力来自"制度破冰"与"火箭运力突破在即"的双重催化。 从政策层面看，上海证券交易所正式发布商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准的指引，资本市场的制度突破为行业注入强心剂。12月26日，上交所发 布的《上海证券交易所发行上市审核规则适用指引第9号——商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准》明确，商业火箭企业申报科创板时，需至少实 现"采用可重复使用技术的中大型运载火箭发射载荷首次成功入轨"。 二是卫星制造、运营与太空应用链。火箭运力提升后，卫星批量制造与发射将成为焦点，从相控阵芯片、激光通信载荷到卫星平台制造、数据运营服务等 环节需求将放量。受益标的：中科星图、航天宏图、中国卫星、乾照光电等。 三是测试与验证服务链。无论是火箭还是卫星，在研发和量产阶段都需要经历复杂的测试环节，专业第三方服务商的需求将伴随产业成熟而同步增长。受 益标的：航天环宇、西测测试、苏试试验、广电计量等。 | 火箭制造与核心配套链 | 航天动力、超捷股份、斯瑞新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and aerospace industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [7]. Core Insights - The Long March 12甲 rocket, despite not achieving its primary recovery goal, has provided valuable experience and is a crucial step in China's development of reusable rocket technology [10][11]. - The Wenchang International Aerospace Forum has opened, signaling rapid advancement in the commercialization and industrialization of the aerospace sector in China [12]. - The report emphasizes continued optimism for commercial aerospace, unmanned systems, new combat capabilities, and military trade as key growth areas [13]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Long March 12甲 Rocket - The Long March 12甲 rocket's recent launch did not meet the recovery target for the first stage, but it successfully gathered critical data for future missions [10][11]. - The failure is seen as part of the iterative process necessary for achieving reusable technology, similar to the development path of SpaceX's Falcon 9 [11]. 1.2 Wenchang International Aerospace Forum - The forum aims to enhance the aerospace industry in Hainan, focusing on building a comprehensive ecosystem that includes rocket, satellite, and data services [12]. - The government is shifting its focus from merely launching rockets to developing downstream services and applications, indicating a move towards a more integrated aerospace industry [12]. 1.3 Future Outlook - As the 14th Five-Year Plan approaches, the report highlights the importance of new technologies in defense, including unmanned systems and deep-sea technology [13]. - The report suggests that military and civilian sectors will become significant growth drivers, with a focus on expanding military trade and high-end equipment exports [13]. Investment Targets - The report lists several investment targets in the commercial aerospace sector, including: - Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy) - National Science and Technology Military Industry (688543, Not Rated) - Aerospace Power (600343, Not Rated) [13][14].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Commercial Aerospace - The domestic commercial aerospace industry is experiencing rapid capitalization, with several companies initiating IPO preparations, potentially accelerating listings to Q2 and Q3 of 2026 [1][5] - Reusable rocket technology is deemed crucial for the development of domestic commercial aerospace, with companies like Interstellar Glory and CAS Space planning their maiden flights and attempting first-stage recovery [1][6] - The domestic market is integrating market-oriented approaches with national systems to catch up with international standards, aiming to achieve global leadership in reusable technology [1][8] Key Developments and Predictions - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has introduced favorable listing standards for high-quality commercial aerospace companies, particularly those utilizing reusable rocket technology, requiring a minimum market value of 4 billion [2] - SpaceX's internal valuation is reported at $800 billion, with Ark Invest predicting a post-IPO market cap of $2.5 trillion, driven by expectations from Starlink and Starship [1][7] - Major satellite constellation projects, GW and Qianfan, are advancing rapidly, with Qianfan aiming to deploy 15,000 satellites by 2030 and GW planning at least 1,300 launches by 2030 [1][9] Technological Impact and Challenges - The success of reusable rocket technology is expected to significantly lower launch costs, thereby increasing market demand and frequency of commercial space missions [12] - The complexity and risks associated with technological innovation necessitate a degree of tolerance for potential failures during initial attempts at recovery [6] - Security challenges are emerging with the increasing intelligence of satellite payloads, necessitating enhanced management and protection measures [17] Infrastructure and Market Dynamics - The domestic capacity for satellite manufacturing has exceeded 3,000 units, supported by multiple state-owned and private enterprises [16] - Infrastructure developments include the establishment of commercial launch sites and demand-side investments in specialized networks, enhancing the overall commercial aerospace ecosystem [18] Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Aerospace Electronics, Fudan Microelectronics, China Satellite, and China Satcom are recommended for investment due to their strong market positions and liquidity [26] - The domestic market for large aircraft and engine manufacturing is identified as a significant investment theme for 2026, with companies like AVIC Xi'an Aircraft and Aero Engine Corporation of China presenting good opportunities [4][22] - The focus on military-to-civilian transitions and military trade is expected to drive growth, with specific recommendations for quartz fiber leaders and key players in the aerospace sector [28][29] Conclusion - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements in reusable rockets and satellite constellations, with various investment opportunities emerging as companies prepare for IPOs and expand their operational capabilities [1][26][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The successful launch of the Long March 12甲 rocket marks a significant step in China's exploration of reusable rocket technology, despite the failure to recover the first stage. This event lays a solid foundation for future reusable launches, which are expected to significantly reduce launch costs and accelerate the development of China's commercial space industry [10][11] - The report emphasizes that short-term setbacks are a necessary part of industry development, and as technology advances, the cost of rocket launches is likely to decrease, thereby promoting the growth of the commercial space sector. It is recommended to pay attention to key suppliers across the industry chain, particularly those related to satellite applications [10][11] Summary by Sections Event Description - On December 23, at 10:00 AM, the Long March 12甲 rocket was launched from the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Test Area, successfully placing its second stage into the designated orbit, although the first stage was not successfully recovered. The flight test was deemed a basic success [5][10] Event Commentary - The Long March 12甲 rocket, designed for "first-stage reuse," is approximately 70.4 meters long and weighs about 437 tons. Although the first stage recovery was not achieved, valuable data was collected for future launches. The report highlights that reusable technology will greatly enhance rocket capacity and reduce average launch costs, supporting the acceleration of satellite constellation deployment [10][11] - The report notes that both state-owned and commercial space sectors are progressing together, with various companies working on reusable rockets across different payload capacities and technologies, which will complement China's aerospace industry [10][11]

11-12 月商业航天产业迎来密集催化，关注北交所商业航天产业链标的 ——北交所科技成长产业跟踪第五十七期（20251228） 证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 29 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 内容目录 | 1. | 政策推动商业航天行业发展提速，可回收火箭发射测试进展可期 5 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. | 上交所发布商业火箭企业科创板上市新标准，11-12 月商业航天迎来密集催化 5 | | 1.2. | 2025Q1-Q3 中国商业航天发射 17 次，预计 2030 年中国商业航天规模超 9 万亿元7 | | 2. | 总量：北交所科技成长股股价涨跌幅中值-2.24% 15 | | 3. | 行业：汽车产业市盈率 TTM 中值-1.75%至 30.6X 16 | | 4. | 公告：纳科诺尔与国内某头部客户签订了《 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid development and transformation of China's commercial space industry, highlighting the significant policy support and market dynamics that are shaping its future [2][4][6]. Policy Support - The Chinese government has introduced a series of "nuclear bomb" level policies to support the commercial space sector, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for the industry [4][6]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan identifies commercial space as a key strategic emerging industry, with the establishment of a 20 billion yuan national fund to support its development [6][9]. - Various local governments have also implemented targeted measures to promote the growth of the commercial space industry [10]. Market Dynamics - The commercial space sector is experiencing unprecedented capital market activity, with significant stock price increases and a surge in IPO applications from leading companies [11][12]. - The commercial space index has seen a remarkable increase of 60.12% in 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [16][18]. - The number of registered commercial space-related companies in China has surged, with over 24,800 new registrations in 2025 alone, reflecting a 57.5% increase compared to the previous year [19]. Technological Challenges - Despite the excitement, the industry faces critical challenges, particularly in achieving cost reductions through rocket reuse, which remains a key hurdle [3][28]. - The successful implementation of reusable rocket technology is essential for reducing launch costs by approximately 38%-58% [28][44]. - The industry is also exploring advanced manufacturing techniques, such as 3D metal printing, to further reduce costs and improve production efficiency [31][32]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the commercial space sector is intensifying, with a focus on low Earth orbit satellite constellations and space computing capabilities [37][45]. - The upcoming IPO of SpaceX, with a projected valuation of $1.5 trillion, is expected to set a new benchmark for the global commercial space industry, influencing domestic players [34][36]. - China's commercial space industry is characterized by a dual structure of state-owned and private enterprises, with private companies expected to fill the capacity gaps left by state-owned entities [42]. Future Outlook - The successful validation of reusable rocket technology and the establishment of a commercial closed-loop system are critical for the industry's long-term sustainability [44][46]. - The development of space computing capabilities is seen as a potential breakthrough for the commercial space sector, offering new revenue streams and competitive advantages [45][46].