Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Saiwei Times (301381) has shown impressive revenue growth, but profitability is under pressure due to increased investment in new product promotions and adjustments in pricing strategies [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue and net profit of 1.0275 billion and 214 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.55% and a decrease of 36.19% respectively [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue and net profit were 347.4 million and 19 million yuan, showing an increase of 58.66% and a significant decline of 83.46% [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 245.8 million, 47 million, and 41 million yuan, representing increases of 36.65% and declines of 45.35% and 42.32% respectively [1]. Business Analysis - Revenue from apparel and accessories, non-apparel and accessories, and logistics services for 2024 was 744.7 million, 232.4 million, and 45.5 million yuan, with growth rates of 59.43%, 33.85%, and 261.49% respectively [2]. - The top five brands achieved revenues of 218.9 million, 208.2 million, 87.5 million, 56 million, and 33.8 million yuan, with growth rates of 50.42%, 61.87%, 39%, 145.66%, and 86.5% respectively [2]. - Revenue by region for 2024 was 900.7 million, 70.3 million, 2.3 million, and 2.3 million yuan from North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions, with growth rates of 53.40%, 40.87%, 12.27%, and 128.86% respectively [2]. - Revenue from channels such as Amazon, Walmart, Temu, and TikTok was 839.4 million, 38.6 million, 26.5 million, and 14.9 million yuan, with growth rates of 45.47%, 44.63%, 6503.07%, and 10453.93% respectively [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 43.4%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to Amazon's commission adjustments and the introduction of a low-price mall [3]. - The gross margins for apparel and accessories, non-apparel and accessories, and logistics services decreased by 2.23, 0.21, and 7.96 percentage points respectively [3]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, and financial costs were 35.67%, 3.69%, and -0.28%, with an increase in sales expense ratio attributed to enhanced brand marketing and rising labor costs [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.63, 0.84, and 1.1 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 33, 24, and 19 times [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 42.75 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.71 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year. The core operating profit for 2024 was 6.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.7% increase year-on-year, with a core operating profit margin of 14.6%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points [4][7]. - The company anticipates a year-end dividend of 2.53 billion yuan, with an overall dividend payout ratio of approximately 95%, corresponding to a dividend yield of about 5% [4][7]. Revenue Breakdown - The restaurant operating revenue was 40.40 billion yuan, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with revenue contributions from first, second, third-tier cities, and Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan at 17.7%, 38.7%, 40.0%, and 3.6% respectively. Other restaurant revenue grew by 39.6% to 480 million yuan, driven by the "Pomegranate Plan" and various innovative dining brands [5]. - The takeaway business generated 1.25 billion yuan, up 20.4% year-on-year, attributed to the launch of a single-person meal service in the second half of 2023. Sales from condiments and ingredients decreased by 27.1% to 580 million yuan [5]. Brand Development and Performance - As of the end of 2024, the company operated a total of 1,368 restaurants, including 1,355 self-operated and 13 franchised, with 62 new openings and 70 closures or relocations. The introduction of a franchise model has seen over 70% of applications coming from third-tier cities and below [6]. - The average customer spending was 97.5 yuan, a decrease of approximately 1.6% year-on-year, while the average table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day, an increase of 0.3 times per day [6]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The cost of raw materials and consumables decreased by 4.3% to 16.21 billion yuan, accounting for 37.9% of revenue, while employee costs rose by 8.2% to 14.11 billion yuan, making up 33.0% of revenue [7]. - The company expects continued improvements in single-store efficiency and accelerated expansion through its franchise strategy and brand incubation, projecting net profits of 5.15 billion yuan, 5.59 billion yuan, and 6.07 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 8.6%, and 8.5% [7][10]. Valuation and Price Target - The reasonable value range for the stock is estimated between 19.4 and 23.0 Hong Kong dollars per share, based on a 20-23 times PE ratio and a 10-12 times EV/EBITDA ratio for 2025 [7][10].