Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the future week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care for the capital market and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [1]. - In the future week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [1]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a significant increase in net buying volume in the past week, while rural commercial banks have become the main seller [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Liquidity Tracking 1.1 Fund Review: The Central Bank Announces Another Injection of Medium - and Long - term Liquidity - In the statistical period (June 9 - 13, 2025), 7 - day reverse repurchase funds of 930.9 billion yuan matured, and the central bank injected 858.2 billion yuan of 7 - day funds, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan for the whole week, and the OMO stock decreased to 858.2 billion yuan. The central bank announced a second - round 40 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation for the next week, achieving a net injection for the whole month [10]. - During the statistical period, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated by 1.52 basis points due to the uncertainty of US tariffs and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [10]. - In terms of government bond progress, in the past week, the net financing of treasury bonds was 262.06 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3.10409 trillion yuan, completing 46.6% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 8.372 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2.00893 trillion yuan, completing 38.6% of the annual plan, with a slowdown in the issuance speed. As of June 13, 1.68 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts had been issued, completing 84.2% of the annual plan [13]. - In terms of capital structure, the lending scale of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased significantly to over 4.5 trillion yuan, the lending scale of money market funds and wealth management products decreased, and the overall borrowing scale of non - banking institutions decreased slightly. The DR series declined, with overnight rates operating near the policy rate, and the spread between 7 - day rates and the policy rate narrowed to 10bp. The R series rose, and the liquidity stratification increased slightly but remained at a low level. The capital market showed a situation of "increasing volume and decreasing price" throughout the week, with a marginal tightening feeling on Thursday and Friday, and a balanced feeling for the whole week [15]. 1.2 CD Review: The Secondary - Market Interest Rate of CDs Declined Slightly, and the Demand from Core Buyers Strengthened - In the primary market, the net financing scale of inter - bank CDs was - 16.226 billion yuan in the statistical period, with a total issuance of 104.137 billion yuan and a maturity of 120.363 billion yuan. In the next three weeks, 102.164 billion, 113.781 billion, and 24.579 billion yuan of inter - bank CDs will mature respectively. The primary issuance rate decreased slightly, with an average issuance rate of 1.6744% (previous value: 1.7106%) [18]. - In the secondary market, core buyers such as funds and wealth management products continued to increase their holdings, money market funds changed from selling to buying, large - scale banks continued to reduce their holdings, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks changed from buying to selling, and insurance and other non - banking institutions and other product accounts continued to increase their holdings. The secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week, and the yield curve steepened slightly. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by - 1.78BP/ - 2.00BP/ - 1.50BP/ - 1.05BP/ - 0.91BP respectively [20]. 1.3 Next - Week Focus: The Central Bank's Firm Care for the Capital Market and the Marginal Relief of CD Issuance Pressure - In terms of the capital market, the May social financing data showed that the credit demand of residents and enterprises had recovered compared with April, with a weak stabilization of overall credit demand. The increase in government bond supply drove the stable growth of social financing, which is expected to support the key period of fiscal expenditure in June. After the deposit rate cut in May, the phenomenon of deposit transfer emerged, with a significant increase in non - banking deposits. The central bank announced a second - round injection of 40 billion yuan of 6 - month outright repurchase in the middle of the month. Combined with the previous 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright repurchase and the 120 - billion - yuan maturity this month, the net injection of outright reverse repurchases for the whole month was 20 billion yuan. The central bank's small - scale net withdrawal in open - market operations in the past two weeks also showed its care for the capital market. It is expected that the market will price a positive signal on June 16, but the amplitude will be smaller than that on June 6. In the next week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [24]. - In terms of CDs, on the supply side, the net financing of CDs remained negative in the past week. The central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity relieved the liability pressure of banks, and the primary - market interest rate of CDs decreased slightly. On the demand side, the demand from core buyers strengthened marginally, and the secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [25]. 2. Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking Recent Considerations on Institutional Assets and Liabilities - The trends of the active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds deviated significantly at times recently. The main reasons are that the supply rhythms of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds were staggered in June, and the weak sentiment in the primary - market allocation disturbed the secondary - market. Since the beginning of the second quarter, interest rates have mainly fluctuated within a narrow range, and institutions had a strong desire to increase duration to obtain excess returns during the window of loose liquidity at the beginning of June. The trading volume of 30 - year treasury bonds increased more significantly than that of 10 - year treasury bonds. Looking forward, there will be no issuance pressure for 10 - year treasury bonds in the second half of June, and the capital price still shows certain volatility. The window period for institutions to increase duration may end, and the performance of 30 - year treasury bonds may not continue to outperform [27]. - The rotation of the bond - replacement market of China Development Bank (CDB) bonds has been very fast recently. When the bond - replacement of CDB active bonds accelerates, the volatility of new bonds will also increase. Therefore, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds has fluctuated significantly recently. In the short term, old bonds may be safer to avoid volatility [28]. Key Review of Institutional Secondary - Market Transactions - Large - scale banks continued to buy treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, with a buying volume of about 77.6 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a net buying volume of about 160.4 billion yuan in the past week, showing a significant increase. Rural commercial banks have become one of the main sellers, with a net selling volume of about 109.2 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - The main buyers of CDs are money market funds, wealth management products, and other products, while the main sellers are city commercial banks and securities firms [31]. - The net buying volume of main non - banking buyers of credit bonds increased. Funds, wealth management products, and other products were the main net buyers, with funds having the largest increase. Since late March, the net buying volume of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years has been generally stable, while the net buying volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years has fluctuated greatly, and the main non - banking buyers increased their buying volume significantly in the past week [31]. - For secondary - tier capital bonds, funds with a maturity of less than 2 years changed to net sellers, with a net selling volume of about 4.9 billion yuan in the past week, while wealth management products and other products changed to net buyers. The main buyers of 2 - 5 - year secondary - tier capital bonds continued to increase their buying volume, with funds having the largest net buying volume of about 36.2 billion yuan, and the banking system was the main net seller. The trading of 5 - 10 - year secondary - tier capital bonds remained light [31]. High - Frequency Data Tracking of Bond Market Micro - Structure - On June 13, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 5.92bp, and the spread fluctuated and widened. The spread between 1 - year CDB bonds and R001 was 1.87BP, and the yield of short - term bonds was slightly higher than the capital price [33]. - The leverage ratio of the bond market in the week before the holiday was 107.72%, continuing to rise month - on - month [35].

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is in a stalemate and under slight pressure, with ultra - long bonds rising first and then falling. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but it was still quite active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][11]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of May 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically low level. With the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of May 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. With the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, important events included the release of April economic data (the domestic economy declined significantly compared to March but continued to develop positively), a 500 - billion MLF operation in May with a 10BP cut in LPR after half a year, balanced funds during the tax period, and a relatively high winning bid rate for the new 10 - year treasury bond on Friday, which put slight pressure on the bond market. Overall, the bond market was in a stalemate and under slight pressure, with ultra - long bonds rising first and then falling. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained quite active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of May 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically low level. The April economic data showed resilience, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.8% decline from March but still higher than the annual target. The CPI in April was - 0.1% and PPI was - 2.7%, indicating obvious deflation risks. With the recent easing of Sino - US trade frictions, investors' pessimistic expectations have dissipated. The short - term focus will return to the second - quarter domestic economic data. It is expected that with the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of May 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, with the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 21.1 trillion. As of April 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 21,157.7 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.2% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 25.6% (5,422.3 billion), local government bonds accounted for 68.2% (14,427.6 billion), etc. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week (from May 12 to May 16, 2025), a large amount of ultra - long bonds were issued, with a total of 242.4 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 121 billion, local government bonds accounted for 106.4 billion, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds accounted for 22.9 billion, 20 - year bonds accounted for 37.2 billion, 30 - year bonds accounted for 132.2 billion, and 50 - year bonds accounted for 50 billion [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 111.7 billion yuan. By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds account for 0 billion, ultra - long local government bonds account for 104.9 billion, and ultra - long medium - term notes account for 6.9 billion [23]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 861.7 billion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds accounted for 31.4% of the total treasury bond trading volume, ultra - long local bonds accounted for 49.6% of the total local bond trading volume, etc. Compared with the previous week, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, with the trading volume decreasing by 43.8 billion yuan and the proportion decreasing by 0.5%. Among them, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds decreased by 49.8 billion yuan, the trading volume of ultra - long local bonds increased by 3.1 billion yuan, etc. [26]. 3.3.2 Yield - Due to multiple important events last week, the bond market was in a stalemate and under slight pressure, with ultra - long bonds rising first and then falling. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 2BP, - 1BP, 1BP, and 3BP to 1.88%, 1.98%, 1.89%, and 2.06% respectively. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 0BP, 0BP, 1BP, and 3BP to 1.94%, 2.00%, 2.07%, and 2.30% respectively. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 0BP, 0BP, and - 2BP to 2.08%, 2.12%, and 2.11% respectively. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by - 3BP, - 4BP, and 0BP to 2.00%, 2.04%, and 2.13% respectively. For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 24 Special Treasury Bond 06 changed by 1BP to 1.95%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by 0BP to 1.98% [33][34]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 17BP, a change of - 3BP from the previous week, at the 1% quantile since 2010 [42]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed trends, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 2BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 5BP, changing by 2BP and - 4BP respectively from the previous week, at the 4% and 2% quantiles since 2010 [46]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.60 yuan, an increase of 0.32%. The total trading volume was 469,900 lots (a decrease of 182,500 lots), and the open interest was 129,300 lots (an increase of 6,141 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [48].