注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国泰海通指出，大国博弈加剧是长期趋势，军工行业长期向好。2027年要确保实现建军百年奋斗目标， 十四五期间有望加速补短板。全球跨区域联合军演增多、部分区域主权摩擦加剧、局部战事长期化，以 及多国加速推进防卫装备列装等动态，均凸显军事装备智能化、无人化及区域防御技术的关键作用。建 议重点关注国防信息化、区域防空反导等前沿热点与装备建设领域。 军工ETF（512660）跟踪的是中证军工指数（399967），该指数从中国A股市场中选取涉及航空、航 天、兵器、船舶等国防工业领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映军工行业相关上市公司证券的整 体表现。指数成分股主要覆盖航空航天与国防领域，同时包含机械制造及相关配套服务等行业，采用派 许加权方式进行计算，并对单一样本权重设置上限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The intensification of great power competition is a long-term trend, leading to a positive outlook for the military industry as defense investments are expected to increase due to rising tensions in the Asia-Pacific region [3][4]. Group 1: Military Industry Trends - The military industry index increased by 0.23% last week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.70%, and the ChiNext Index, which surged by 8.58% [4]. - The first comprehensive rehearsal for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War was successfully completed, indicating a focus on military readiness [4]. - Significant advancements in space technology were reported, including the successful launch of low-orbit satellites and the completion of a spacewalk by the Shenzhou 20 astronaut crew, showcasing progress in military and aerospace capabilities [4]. Group 2: International Military Dynamics - The international military situation remains complex, with ongoing strategic adjustments and regional conflicts. The U.S. military in South Korea has called for increased deterrence responsibilities from South Korea regarding North Korea, potentially escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific [5]. - Recent military exercises involving the U.S. and its allies in the Arctic and the South China Sea highlight the growing military presence and strategic maneuvers in these regions [5]. - Japan plans to allocate over 100 billion yen for deploying defense drones in the 2026 fiscal year, signaling a shift towards increased militarization [5]. - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the recent escalation in Gaza further illustrate the volatility of global military dynamics, emphasizing the importance of advanced military technology and regional defense capabilities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the industry is experiencing short-term performance impacts due to cyclical fluctuations and client adjustments, but Haige Communication's new product expansion is promising [1] Industry Summary - The industry is facing delays in contract signing due to client adjustments and cyclical fluctuations, which is putting pressure on short-term profits [1] - The long-term trend of defense informationization is beneficial for the industry, particularly for companies like Haige Communication that are leaders in wireless communication and Beidou navigation [1] Company Summary - Haige Communication is strengthening its core competitive advantages by advancing the development of "Beidou + 5G" integrated communication chips [1] - The company has collaborated with China Mobile, and its consumer-grade chips have been selected as one of the top ten benchmark cases for industrial investment collaboration [1] - Haige Communication has secured a bid for a narrowband handheld project in satellite internet terminals, reinforcing its first-mover advantage [1] - In the low-altitude economy sector, the company has iterated its "Tian Teng" flight management service platform and launched the "Tian Shu" operation platform, connecting with projects in over ten provinces and completing the first phase delivery of flying cars [1] - Given its strategic investments in emerging fields and its leadership position, the company maintains a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to industry cyclical impacts, but new product expansions are expected to yield positive results [1][3] - The company is a leader in wireless communication and BeiDou navigation, benefiting from the long-term trend of defense informationization and actively expanding into satellite internet and low-altitude economy [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.229 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.5138 million yuan, down 98.72% year-on-year [1][9] - Revenue breakdown shows wireless communication revenue at 690 million yuan (down 5.73%), BeiDou navigation revenue at 280 million yuan (down 32.25%), aerospace revenue at 140 million yuan (down 11.04%), and smart ecology revenue at 1.082 billion yuan (down 13.15%) [9] - The company's R&D expense ratio reached a historical high of 20.05%, indicating a strong commitment to transformation [9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 334 million yuan and 567 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.027 billion yuan [3][10] - Corresponding P/E ratios are projected at 104, 61, and 34 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][10] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 14.13 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 35.068 billion yuan [6][10] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.81 [6] Competitive Advantages - The company is enhancing its core competitive advantages through continuous R&D in "BeiDou + 5G" integrated chips and has secured contracts in satellite internet and low-altitude economy sectors [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Zhimingda (688636.SH) reported significant growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 295 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.83%, and net profit soaring to 38.3 million yuan, a staggering rise of 2147.93% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhimingda's annual revenue was 438 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 33.95%, and net profit dropped by 79.79% to 19.5 million yuan [2] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 214 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 165.31%, and net profit of 29.98 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 260.44% [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company's performance turnaround is attributed to continuous technological innovation and effective market expansion strategies [3] - Zhimingda achieved full-chain localization of smart guidance head components, enhancing target recognition speed by 30% and increasing product value by over 50% compared to 2024 [3] - The company’s AI technology has shown significant improvements, with a 98% recognition accuracy in drone landing, a 12 percentage point increase from 2024 [3] Group 3: Market Expansion - Zhimingda has strengthened customer cooperation in commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy sectors, with drone system solutions orders increasing by 150% [4] - The company’s revenue from civilian drone support has risen from 3% to 12% [4] - Long-term agreements with satellite operators in the commercial aerospace sector are expected to generate over 100 million yuan in revenue by 2026 [4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Despite strong performance, the company faces risks related to customer dependency, with 93.39% of sales in 2024 concentrated among five major clients in the military sector [6][7] - The long settlement cycle in the military industry poses challenges for cash flow, with accounts receivable increasing by 26.7% to 863 million yuan by June 2025, significantly exceeding industry averages [7][8] - The company acknowledges that delays in customer payments could impact financial stability, as evidenced by a 10 million yuan increase in accounts receivable impairment [7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, recognizing it as a leading enterprise in the special integrated circuit sector with a forward-looking layout and increased R&D investment [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the integrated circuit industry, with a comprehensive product range covering multiple application scenarios. It has established a strong foothold in the special integrated circuit market through strategic acquisitions and continuous R&D efforts [14][19]. - The demand for special integrated circuits is expected to grow due to the acceleration of national defense informatization and the increasing needs in aerospace and unmanned systems. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend [6][39]. - The financial forecast indicates a recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 15.8 billion, 21.3 billion, and 29.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, alongside a decreasing PE ratio compared to industry averages [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has evolved through multiple stages, leveraging technology from Tsinghua University and expanding into various sectors, including special integrated circuits and automotive electronics [14][16]. - The stable shareholding structure, backed by the new Unisplendour Group, supports long-term strategic planning and operational stability [16][19]. 2. Market Demand and Growth - The national defense budget has shown consistent growth, with a projected budget of 1,784.67 billion yuan for 2025, which is expected to drive demand for special integrated circuits [41][42]. - The company’s products are crucial for various defense applications, including satellite communication and radar systems, positioning it to capture significant market opportunities [46][51]. 3. Financial Performance and Projections - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2023 and 2024 due to market fluctuations, but it is anticipated that profitability will stabilize and recover as demand increases [27][32]. - The projected revenue for the special integrated circuit segment is expected to rebound, contributing significantly to overall financial performance [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, recognizing it as a leading enterprise in the special integrated circuit sector, with significant growth potential driven by strategic investments and market demand recovery [7][6][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the integrated circuit industry, with a comprehensive product range that spans various applications, including special integrated circuits, smart security chips, and quartz crystal frequency devices [6][13]. - The defense sector's modernization and increasing budget allocations are expected to drive demand for special integrated circuits, with the market projected to exceed 500 billion yuan by 2025 [39][40]. - The company has experienced short-term profit declines due to industry demand fluctuations, but forecasts indicate a recovery in profitability and revenue growth from 2025 onwards, with net profits expected to reach 15.8 billion yuan in 2025 [5][6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, backed by the new Unisplendour Group, has evolved into a leading integrated circuit manufacturer since its establishment in 2001, focusing on smart card chips and expanding into special integrated circuits through strategic acquisitions [13][15]. - The stable shareholding structure of the controlling shareholder enhances the company's long-term strategic planning and operational stability [15]. 2. Market Demand and Growth - The acceleration of defense informationization is driving the demand for special integrated circuits, particularly in aerospace and unmanned systems, with significant growth opportunities in these sectors [37][44]. - The company’s products are widely used in critical applications such as satellite communication and military equipment modernization, positioning it to benefit from increased defense spending [39][40]. 3. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s revenue growth from 2020 to 2023 was robust, but a decline in 2024 is anticipated due to market conditions, with a projected recovery in subsequent years [26][31]. - Forecasts indicate that the company’s net profit will rebound to 15.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 40, which is below the industry average, suggesting potential for stock price appreciation [7][5]. 4. Product Diversification - The company has diversified its product offerings, including smart security chips and automotive electronics, which are expected to contribute to stable and sustainable growth [6][19]. - The smart security chip segment is projected to see significant revenue growth, driven by the transition to eSIM technology and expanding applications in various sectors [7][8]. 5. Competitive Positioning - The company maintains a competitive edge through substantial R&D investments, enabling it to develop high-performance products that meet stringent industry standards [6][37]. - The special integrated circuit market is characterized by high margins and customized solutions, allowing the company to leverage its technological capabilities for sustained growth [55].

Core Viewpoint - The current international security situation is complex and severe, highlighting the importance of national defense construction, with ongoing regional conflicts and military dynamics [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The China Weapon Industry Group recently showcased new equipment such as drones, cruise missiles, and anti-drone combat systems, reflecting the trend towards informationization and intelligence in military equipment [1] - Significant technological breakthroughs in the aviation sector, exemplified by the successful maiden flight of the new Zhoushan 60 civil rescue aircraft, will enhance China's emergency rescue capabilities [1] - The intensifying great power competition has shifted the defense strategies of the US and its allies towards the Indo-Pacific, potentially escalating tensions around China [1] - The military industry is expected to have a long-term positive trend, driven by the 2027 military centenary goal and the "14th Five-Year Plan" demand for addressing shortcomings, particularly in defense informationization and aviation equipment [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The military ETF (512660) tracks the CSI Military Industry Index (399967), which selects representative military industry listed companies from the Chinese A-share market, covering sectors such as aviation, aerospace, weaponry, and shipbuilding [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the military industry and is characterized by distinct industry features and high growth potential [1]

Group 1 - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) experienced a slight increase of 0.08% with a trading volume exceeding 280 million yuan, indicating active trading and premium transactions [1] - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 10 million shares in real-time, with a net inflow of over 7.1 million yuan in the previous day, marking two consecutive days of net inflow [1] - The current circulation scale of the aerospace ETF Tianhong is 429 million yuan, with a total of 357 million shares, reflecting an impressive year-to-date share growth rate of 87.76%, the highest among similar products [1] Group 2 - Blue Arrow Aerospace has initiated listing guidance for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with China International Capital Corporation serving as the advisory institution [2] - Founded in 2015, Blue Arrow Aerospace is the first private launch vehicle company in China to obtain all access qualifications, focusing on a full industry chain centered around medium and large liquid oxygen-methane launch vehicles [2] - The military industry is expected to see strong demand recovery by 2025, with significant growth in both domestic and international markets, making military investment a priority for the future [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the military industry as "Overweight" [5][12]. Core Viewpoints - The intensification of great power competition is a long-term trend, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the military industry. Increased defense spending is essential to ensure peace and security, especially as tensions around China may escalate [2][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Key investment themes include: 1. General Assembly: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, Aerospace South Lake, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [11]. 2. Components: AVIC Optoelectronics, Aerospace Electric, Guobang Electronics, Ruichuang Micro-Nano [11]. 3. Subsystems: AVIC Onboard, North Navigation [11]. 4. Materials and Processing: AVIC Heavy Machinery, Feilihua, Guangwei Composite, Huayin Technology, Bolite, Western Materials, Aviation Materials [11]. Market Review - The military industry index rose by 1.22% from July 20 to July 25, underperforming the broader market by 0.45 percentage points, ranking 24th out of 29 sectors [13][16]. - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.76% during the same period [13][16]. Major News in the Military Industry - The 155th joint patrol operation in the Mekong River concluded successfully, highlighting international cooperation in regional security [9][24]. - The China Weapon Industry Group showcased new unmanned and anti-unmanned combat systems, emphasizing advancements in military technology [23]. - The successful first flight of the Xinzhou 60 civil rescue aircraft marks a significant step in enhancing China's emergency response capabilities [23]. International Military Situation - The report notes a complex international military landscape, with various nations calling for an end to the Gaza conflict and highlighting the importance of defense construction amid ongoing tensions [10][25]. - The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Pacific, deploying additional submarines in response to perceived threats from China [10][30].