证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 2025 年中央经济工作会议如何指引 A 股？ ——中央经济工作会议点评 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议整体延续政治局会议 相对积极的表态。短期来看，过去 10 年间，会后 7 天大盘风格往往相对占优。 行业表现上，从平均超额收益水平来看，近 5 年，社会服务、公用事业、煤炭、 传媒这五个行业会后 7 天平均超额水平相对更高。中长期来看，建议重点关注 会议"推动投资止跌回稳"下，明年重大项目的安排。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《如何理解 12 月政治局会 议？对资本市场意味着什么？ ———政策专题》2025-12-08 2、《今年以来服务消费政策部 署梳理，美政府结束停摆——国 内外产业政策周报（1116）》 2、《黄金税收政策调整，美国 与亚洲多国达成合作——国内 外产业政策周报（1103）》 3、《发布会召开介绍和解读四 中全会精神，有哪些增量信息？ — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1025）》 4、《整治内卷聚焦价格治理， 特朗普威胁对华大幅加征关税 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 ...

化债与转型成效观察之首发新增融资主体 公共融资部 李娟 引言:在不断深化地方政府债务风险防范化解与加快推动融资平台改革转型 的背景下,随着一揽子化债政策落实细化,目前隐性债务化解与融资平台退出均 取得了阶段性的成效;但债券发审端对城投新增融资延续高压监管态势,各地通 过资源整合重组及推动城投市场化转型寻求融资突破口的动力未减。2025 年以 来,在前期转型摸索的基础上,地方层面积极借鉴成功经验加快国有资源整合, 首次亮相资本市场实现新增用途债券成功发行的主体数量持续扩容,但受区域资 源禀赋及产业基础条件分化等影响,各地总体转型进程差异明显。本文主要对首 发新增融资主体进行样本分析和个案研究,以此作为观察各地转型策略和进程差 异的一个窗口,并通过样本特征总结结合政策导向,归纳出一些城投转型及国资 整合可借鉴经验及需关注的要点。 专题研究 一、 严监管下城投债发行概览 自 2023 年 7 月中央政治局会议提出"一揽子化债方案"以来，地方债务风 险化解进入全新阶段。近两年,以"35号文"为总纲,一系列以"控增量、化存 量、促转型"为核心的系统性配套政策及补丁文件密集出台,债券发审端也通过 名单制管理及差异化的监管 ...

Group 1: Domestic Market Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported a net investment of 50 billion yuan in government bonds in November, with additional liquidity tools contributing to a total net injection of 1.904 billion yuan [2] - The issuance of local government bonds in China has surpassed 1 trillion yuan for the first time in history, indicating a significant increase in local government debt [3] - The sentiment in the bond market remains weak, with the yields on major government bonds rising, reflecting a lack of confidence among investors [10] Group 2: Corporate Bond Activity - Vanke's multiple bonds experienced significant declines, with some dropping over 81%, indicating distress in the corporate bond market [13] - Kaisa Group initiated a consent solicitation for six of its US dollar notes, seeking to convert interest payments into equity, highlighting the challenges faced by real estate companies [14] - CIFI Group announced the suspension of trading for seven of its corporate bonds starting December 3, as part of its debt restructuring efforts [14] Group 3: International Market Insights - The Eurozone's November CPI rose to 2.2%, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will not lower interest rates in the near term [4] - The OECD predicts that the interest rate cuts by major global central banks will end by the end of 2026, with limited room for further easing [5] - The US Treasury yields showed a slight decline, with the 2-year yield down to 3.51%, indicating a cautious market outlook [19]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - Currently in the debt - resolution critical period, local government debt risks show regional and structural differentiation. Weifang district - county platforms' "small, scattered, and weak" characteristics increase risk - control difficulties, and there is still pressure for regional risk recurrence. The report summarizes Shandong and Weifang's debt - resolution processes, draws on Guizhou and Qujiang's debt - resolution ideas, and reveals the core risks in Weifang's current debt - resolution [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shandong and Weifang's Debt - Resolution Processes 1.1 Shandong's Debt - Resolution Process - In April 2024, the "Three - Debt Unified Management" policy led to some achievements in key - area debt resolution, buying time and space for overall debt - risk management. In 2025, Shandong continued to prioritize debt - risk resolution, with policy intensity upgrading and efforts to eliminate non - standard debts, aiming to clear hidden debts by the end of 2028 [3][4] 1.2 Weifang's Debt - Resolution Process - Weifang has a large local - government debt balance, mainly from district - county platforms. In 2025, the debt risk was mitigated. Support increased, with Weifang getting 59 billion yuan in replacement - bond quotas from 2024 - 2026, ranking first in the province. The provincial government set up a debt - risk - resolution fund for targeted liquidity support. The city's debt shows "stable issuance scale, low net financing, and policy - driven" features, entering a stage of "mainly replacing existing debts and supplementing with new financing" [5][6][10] 2. Reference of Typical Regional Debt - Resolution Models 2.1 Guizhou's Debt - Resolution Model Reference - Guizhou has gone through "internal - dominated" and "top - down" debt - resolution stages. Weifang is in a transition stage of "mainly internal - dominated and supplemented by central support". It should analyze Guizhou's "internal - dominated" policies, use appropriate debt tools in the short, medium, and long - term, and establish a long - term mechanism [12][13] 2.2 Qujiang's Debt - Resolution Model Reference - Qujiang resolved debt through asset stripping, providing upgraded guarantees, and policy - coordinated liquidity support. Weifang can learn from asset transfer and re - guaranteeing by the provincial level. However, it also needs to examine in - depth risks from the micro - perspective of district - county platforms [14] 3. Key Risks of Weifang District - County Platforms - After the release of the "No. 3 Guideline", some market - oriented platforms achieved their first bond issuances. Weifang's district - county platforms face problems in independent bond - issuance. The market should focus on risks in trade - business rationality assessment, guarantee - subject effectiveness verification, and information dynamic disclosure [15][16][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guangxi has obvious resource endowment advantages but faces challenges such as lower - than - national - average GDP growth, a relatively heavy debt burden, and low urbanization rates. In 2024, the economy maintained growth with foreign trade as the main driver, and the government actively promoted debt resolution, achieving certain results [4]. - There are significant disparities in economic strength among prefecture - level cities in Guangxi. Nanning leads in economic development, population, and urbanization, while Liuzhou faced economic growth pressure in 2024. Most cities' comprehensive financial resources rely highly on superior subsidies due to the downturn in the real estate market [4][21]. - Guangxi's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises are mainly at the prefecture - level city level, with concentrated bonds in Liuzhou, Nanning, and provincial - level enterprises. In 2024, the debt term structure slightly improved, but short - term solvency was weak, and regional financing capabilities were polarized [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Guangxi's Economic and Fiscal Strength 1. Guangxi's Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Guangxi has rich natural resources and a unique strategic position. It is an important gateway for opening up to ASEAN and a core hub of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor. The modern three - dimensional transportation pattern is initially formed, and infrastructure construction will be further promoted in the "14th Five - Year Plan" and "15th Five - Year Plan" periods [5][6]. - In 2024, Guangxi's economic aggregate was at a medium - low level nationwide, with a lower - than - national - average GDP growth rate, a low - ranking per capita GDP, and a low urbanization rate. The industrial structure remained stable, and foreign trade was the main driver of economic growth. The government continued to improve infrastructure and deepen economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN countries in 2025 [5][9]. 2. Guangxi's Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Guangxi's general public budget revenue increased slightly, with weak fiscal self - sufficiency. Government - funded revenues continued to decline, and the central government provided strong support through transfer payments. Government debt balances continued to grow, and the debt ratio and liability ratio ranked in the upper - middle level nationwide, indicating a relatively heavy debt burden [17]. II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi 1. Economic Strength of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi - There are significant disparities in economic strength among prefecture - level cities in Guangxi. Nanning leads in GDP, population, and urbanization. Liuzhou's economic growth was under pressure in 2024. Most cities' per capita GDP is lower than the national average, and the proportion of the primary industry is generally high [21][25]. - The Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and the Xijiang Economic Belt have better industrial bases. Each city develops relevant industries based on its own resource advantages [23]. 2. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situations of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi - Fiscal Revenues: General public budget revenues vary greatly among cities, with Nanning having the highest. Most cities' fiscal self - sufficiency is weak. Government - funded revenues of most cities decreased due to the real estate market downturn, and superior subsidies contribute significantly to the comprehensive financial resources of most cities [27][28][30]. - Debt Situations: In 2024, the government debt balance of Guangxi increased by 16.01% year - on - year, and the debt balances of all prefecture - level cities rose. Except for Guilin, the debt ratios of other cities increased, and the debt ratios of Liuzhou, Laibin, and Qinzhou exceeded 200% [33]. 3. Debt Management Policies and Measures - Since 2024, Guangxi has promoted local debt resolution through various means such as special refinancing bonds, financial institution support, and asset revitalization, achieving certain results. Liuzhou's debt structure has been significantly optimized [35]. III. Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi 1. Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi - As of the end of September 2025, there were 50 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Guangxi, mainly at the prefecture - level city level, concentrated in Liuzhou and Nanning [40]. 2. Bond - Issuing Situations of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi - In 2024, the bond - issuing scale of urban investment enterprises in Guangxi decreased by 12.18% year - on - year, mainly for debt replacement, and was concentrated in Liuzhou and provincial - level enterprises. From 2024 to the first three quarters of 2025, the net repayment scale of urban investment bonds in Guangxi narrowed, but Liuzhou's net repayment scale remained large [41][43]. 3. Analysis of Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi - At the end of 2024, the total debt of urban investment enterprises in Guangxi increased slightly, with relatively heavy debt burdens on provincial - level, Liuzhou, Guilin, and Hechi enterprises. The debt term structure slightly improved, but short - term solvency indicators were weak. Regional financing capabilities were polarized [45]. 4. Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenues of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi for the Debts of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - Limited by economic and fiscal strength, most prefecture - level cities in Guangxi have small bond - issuing scales for urban investment enterprises. The "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" in Nanning and Liuzhou is large, and in Liuzhou, this ratio to comprehensive financial resources is close to 800%, indicating high regional debt pressure [53].

从订单降速到清欠发力，"一揽子"化 债第二阶段建筑企业信用风险怎么看？ 联合资信 工商评级一部 刘珺轩 赵兮 李旭 2023 年 7 月，中央政治局会议上提出"制定实施一揽子化债方案"，明确"保存 量、控增量"的化债核心思路。地方政府相关项目在建筑业需求端占据重要份额，本 文回顾了本轮化债以来建筑行业表现，并对后续化债进程对建筑行业的影响进行了研 判。从本轮化债的第一阶段情况看，样本建筑企业地方政府相关项目订单、收入均有 所下降，回款和周转效率恶化，特别是高地方政府项目占比的地方建筑国企短期偿付 压力偏大。"6+4+2 万亿"出台以来，本轮化债进入第二阶段，在央地债务结构优化以 及建立防范化解地方政府债务风险长效机制背景下，预计建筑行业整体需求结构将发 生持续调整，建工企业的信用水平将加大分化。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、"一揽子"化债政策梳理 本轮化债政策力度大、指向准，建立了监测口径更全、预算约束更强、监管问责 更严的长效机制，防风险与促发展并重，推动经济发展和债务管理良性循环。 自 2014 年以来，我国已推动多轮地方政府化债。2014 年开始的首轮"化债"主要 将存量债务纳 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Urban investment enterprises have played a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth and promoting urbanization in China since their inception [2] - The development of urban investment enterprises is categorized into five stages: origin and initial development (before 2008), rapid expansion and initial regulation (2008-2013), standardized governance and transformation exploration (2014-2016), strict regulation and risk resolution (2017-2022), and comprehensive debt resolution and accelerated transformation (2023-present) [5][11][42] Summary by Sections 1. Definition of Urban Investment Enterprises - Urban investment enterprises are defined as economic entities established by local governments to undertake financing for government investment projects, possessing independent legal status [4] - They typically finance infrastructure projects through various means such as bonds, bank loans, and public-private partnerships (PPP) [4] 2. Origin and Initial Development (Before 2008) - Urban investment enterprises emerged in the 1990s due to a lack of funding for urban infrastructure and the mismatch between fiscal authority and responsibilities of local governments [8] - By the end of 2008, there were over 3,000 urban investment enterprises focusing on land development and municipal engineering [10] 3. Rapid Expansion and Initial Regulation (2008-2013) - The number of urban investment enterprises exceeded 10,000 during the implementation of the four trillion yuan economic stimulus plan, with significant growth in bond issuance [11][12] - Regulatory measures were introduced to address issues such as debt maturity mismatches and high financing costs [11][13] 4. Standardized Governance and Transformation Exploration (2014-2016) - The new Budget Law granted local governments the authority to incur debt, leading to an increase in bond issuance and a shift towards market-oriented operations [17][20] - By the end of 2016, the total debt of sample urban investment enterprises reached 12.8 trillion yuan, a 42.43% increase from 2014 [26] 5. Strict Regulation and Risk Resolution (2017-2022) - Regulatory policies continued to tighten, impacting the financing capabilities of urban investment enterprises, which experienced fluctuating debt levels [30][32] - The issuance of urban investment bonds and net financing showed a volatile growth trend during this period [32][34] 6. Comprehensive Debt Resolution and Accelerated Transformation (2023-Present) - In July 2023, a comprehensive debt resolution plan was proposed, leading to restrictions on new financing and a decline in bond issuance [42][46] - The pace of urban investment enterprises exiting the platform and transitioning to market-oriented operations has accelerated, with approximately 1,370 enterprises completing the exit process by August 2025 [50]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since the central government proposed a comprehensive debt - resolution plan in July 2023, over two years have passed, and the progress towards the goal of eliminating implicit local government debt by 2028 is nearly halfway. The debt - resolution efforts have achieved results in both "resolving existing debt" and "curbing new debt" [2][10][11]. - Although local government comprehensive financial resources have declined since 2021 and the overall debt volume has increased, the interest - payment cost has decreased. In 2025, the overall interest - payment pressure is expected to improve compared to 2024, and the tail - end risks have been mitigated [3][34][37]. - In城投 bond investment, there are three major changes: the credit spread has significantly narrowed, showing characteristics similar to interest - rate bonds; the regional differentiation has been significantly reduced; and in the context of low static yields, investors are trying to gain returns from duration, but the timing difficulty has increased [4][49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 "Mid - term Exam" of Debt Resolution: Achievements in "Resolving Existing Debt and Curbing New Debt" - **Policy Background**: From July 2023 to October 2025, a series of policies were introduced to promote debt resolution, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" for debt resolution has started a new journey [10]. - **Resolving Existing Debt**: By the end of 2024, the implicit debt was 10.5 trillion yuan, nearly 4 trillion yuan less than in 2023. As of the end of August 2025, 4 trillion yuan of the additional 6 - trillion - yuan special debt quota had been issued. After replacement, the average interest cost of debt decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, saving over 450 billion yuan in interest [11]. - **Debt Structure Optimization**: The proportion of high - cost non - standard debt decreased. By the end of 2024, the non - standard debt proportion in national urban investment interest - bearing debt was 4.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the end of 2023. Most provinces saw a decline in non - standard debt proportion [12][13]. - **Stable Scale and Reduced Cost of Urban Investment Bonds**: Since July 2023, the scale of urban investment bonds has remained stable at around 16 trillion yuan, and the weighted average coupon rate has dropped from about 4.5% to 3.2%, saving about 20 billion yuan in annual interest [14]. - **Reduced Interest - Payment Cost of Total Interest - Bearing Debt**: The national urban investment total interest - bearing debt interest - payment cost dropped from 5.18% at the end of 2022 to about 4.9% at the end of 2024, and most provinces saw a decline in interest - payment pressure [19]. - **Reduced Non - standard Debt Risks**: The number of non - standard defaults of urban investment has significantly decreased, and the number of non - standard financing new additions, such as trust financing, has also declined [23][30]. - **Controlled Debt Growth**: The growth rate of urban investment interest - bearing debt has been well - controlled, dropping to 5.5% in 2024 and further to 4.9% in the 2025 semi - annual report [27]. 3.2 Mitigation of Tail - end Regional Risks: Overall Debt in Tight Balance - **Decline in Local Comprehensive Financial Resources**: Affected by factors such as economic slowdown and the cold land market, local government comprehensive financial resources reached a peak of about 20.5 trillion yuan in 2021 and then gradually declined to 17.66 trillion yuan in 2024, a 13.8% decrease compared to 2021 [34]. - **Increasing Debt Volume**: The balance of broad - based local government debt reached about 110 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, a 43% increase compared to 2021 [37]. - **Interest - Payment Pressure and Risk Mitigation**: Since 2021, the local government interest - payment pressure has gradually increased. It is expected to improve in 2025 but has not returned to the 2021 level. About two - thirds of the provinces are expected to see an improvement in interest - payment ability in 2025, and the tail - end risks have been mitigated [41][45]. 3.3 "Interest - Rate" Characteristics of Urban Investment Bond Returns: From Regional Differentiation to Duration Timing - **Narrowed Credit Spread**: Before debt resolution, the credit spread of urban investment bonds was over 200bp, 26bp higher than that of industrial bonds. Now it has narrowed to 55bp, and the excess spread compared to industrial bonds has been eliminated [49]. - **Reduced Regional Differentiation**: The gap between the provinces with the highest and lowest credit spreads has shrunk from over 700bp to less than 100bp, and the average credit spread of 12 key provinces has narrowed from 362bp to about 60bp [57][59]. - **Increased Duration Timing Difficulty**: In the context of low static yields, investors try to gain returns from duration, but since 2025, the contribution of the duration - extension strategy to returns has been negative, and the timing difficulty has increased significantly [4][60].

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully passed a resolution for debt restructuring of certain receivables, which is expected to positively impact its profit for the fiscal year 2025 [5][14][17]. Group 1: Board Meeting - The fifth board meeting of the company was held on November 6, 2025, with all seven directors present, and no votes against or abstentions were recorded [3][4][5]. - The meeting was conducted in accordance with relevant laws and regulations [4]. Group 2: Debt Restructuring Proposal - The board approved a proposal for debt restructuring concerning receivables amounting to 7.369079 million yuan, which is expected to enhance cash flow and reduce receivables risk [5][14][17]. - The restructuring is part of a broader initiative to address local government debt issues, aligning with national policies aimed at financial stability [14][16]. Group 3: Supervisory Board Meeting - The supervisory board meeting was also held on November 6, 2025, with all three supervisors present, and similarly, no votes against or abstentions were recorded [9][10][11]. - The supervisory board supports the debt restructuring, emphasizing its benefits for cash flow and long-term client relationships [10][18]. Group 4: Financial Impact - The debt restructuring is projected to have a positive effect on the company's total profit for 2025, with the final accounting treatment to be confirmed by annual audit results [14][17]. - The agreement stipulates that the debtor must pay 80% of the remaining debt within 30 days, amounting to 7.369079 million yuan, to settle the obligation [16].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth, with a focus on precision and efficiency in implementation [1][2][8]. Fiscal Policy Support for Economic Development - The necessity for enhanced fiscal policy support during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, particularly to maintain an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4.5% to achieve long-term strategic goals by 2035 [2][3]. - The fiscal policy aims to address challenges such as population decline, economic restructuring, and external pressures by increasing spending and optimizing expenditure [2][3]. Investment in Key Areas - Significant investment is required in critical sectors such as modern industrial systems, technological self-reliance, and green transformation, which necessitates substantial public investment led by fiscal policy [3][4]. - Fiscal funding is essential to fill investment gaps and leverage private capital through risk-sharing mechanisms [3]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, requiring fiscal measures to enhance consumer confidence and investment willingness [4][5]. - Fiscal policy will focus on optimizing spending and improving social security to stabilize expectations and promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4]. Promoting Social Equity - The plan aims to advance common prosperity through fiscal measures that address income distribution and enhance social welfare systems [5][6]. - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in reducing disparities and ensuring equitable resource allocation [5]. Addressing Uncertainties - The fiscal policy must maintain necessary spending levels to counteract increasing uncertainties and risks, including economic downturns and external shocks [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal approach is essential to provide a stable foundation for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. Focus Areas for Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain a proactive stance, with an expected deficit rate of 3.8% to 4.0%, potentially rising to over 4.2% during significant shocks [8][9]. - Annual issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at around 1.5 trillion yuan, targeting key areas such as technological innovation and social welfare [9][10]. Deepening Fiscal and Tax Reforms - The plan includes reforms to enhance fiscal sustainability and clarify the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [10][11]. - Measures will be taken to improve local tax systems and reduce reliance on land finance, while also addressing local government debt issues [10][11]. Managing Local Government Debt - The strategy outlines a phased approach to resolving existing local government debt, with an annual issuance of special bonds estimated between 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan [11]. - Efforts will focus on categorizing and managing debt risks while enhancing local fiscal capabilities [11].