Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Copper inventories had mixed trends on July 31, with an increase in overall inventory but a decrease in SHFE inventory compared to last week, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward - sloping, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - Due to the slowdown of Fed rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamentals: Mixed factors lead to a neutral assessment of copper fundamentals [2]. - Basis: Spot price of 78535 with a basis of 495, showing a premium over futures, bullish [2]. - Inventory: On July 31, total copper inventory increased by 1350 to 138200 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons compared to last week, neutral [2]. - Disk: Closing price below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving down, bearish [2]. - Main Positions: Main net long positions but long positions decreasing, bullish [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices to fluctuate and adjust due to multiple factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Domestic policy easing [3]. -利空: Trade war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with some years having surpluses and others having deficits [22]. Other Information - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. - Processing fees have declined [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a premium over futures, also neutral. Copper inventories increased on July 29, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased last week, which is neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward, suggesting a bearish trend. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Considering factors such as the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises cut production, scrap copper policy is relaxed, June manufacturing PMI is 49.5% (unchanged from last month), manufacturing sentiment is stable, neutral [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 78985, basis is 145, premium over futures, neutral [3]. - Inventory: On July 29, copper inventory increased by 225 to 127625 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons last week, neutral [3]. - Disk: Closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average is moving downward, bearish [3]. - Main positions: Main net positions are long but long positions are decreasing, bullish [3]. - Expectation: Fed rate - cuts slow down, inventories rise, geopolitical disturbances remain, off - season consumption is under pressure, copper prices will fluctuate and adjust [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Domestic policy easing [4]. -利空: Trade war escalation [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [21]. - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with stable manufacturing sentiment, a neutral basis, and mixed signals from inventory, price trends, and主力持仓. The copper price is expected to undergo a volatile adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79100, with a basis of 100, showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 28, copper inventory decreased by 1075 to 127400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [3]. - **Price Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, indicating a bearish trend [3]. - **主力持仓**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, suggesting a bullish trend [3]. - **Expectation**: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will experience a volatile adjustment [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: No specific information provided - **利空**: No specific information provided - **Logic**: Domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [4] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [23]. Other Information - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [15]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are declining [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market presents a complex situation with a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish factors. The copper price is expected to experience oscillatory adjustments due to factors such as a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, ongoing geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment (neutral) [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79,535, with a basis of 285, showing a premium over futures (neutral) [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, copper inventories increased by 3,700 to 128,475 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 11,133 tons to 74,423 tons compared to the previous week (neutral) [3]. - **Market trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward (bearish) [3]. - **Main positions**: The main net positions are long, and the long positions are increasing (bullish) [3]. - **Expectation**: With a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will undergo oscillatory adjustments [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely factors**: Domestic policy easing and trade - war escalation are the influencing logics, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not elaborated [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation in 2024 shows a slight surplus, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply surplus of 0.11 million tons [23]. Other Information - **Spot**: Information on spot prices includes place, mid - price, price changes, and inventory types, but specific data is not filled in [7]. - **Exchange Inventory**: The report mentions exchange inventory, but no detailed analysis is provided [13]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [15]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are declining [17].

Core Insights - The first half of 2025 saw a "volatile" and "divergent" trend in the international and domestic commodity markets, characterized by mixed performance across different sectors [1][3][8] International Market Overview - The international commodity market exhibited a "weak energy, strong precious metals, differentiated metals, and moderate agricultural products" landscape, driven by macroeconomic slowdown and geopolitical risks [1][2] - Brent crude oil prices fell to around $70 due to increased supply from OPEC+ and other countries, with the World Bank predicting a significant likelihood of declining energy prices in 2025 [1][2] - Gold prices reached record highs due to geopolitical tensions and high global debt, while copper prices rose over 10% due to supply disruptions and demand from the renewable energy sector [1][5] - The correlation between commodity futures and the US dollar index remained high, with limited softening of the dollar impacting market dynamics [1][5] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with the overall commodity index remaining stable by mid-year, despite significant fluctuations [3][4] - Energy and chemical sectors, along with black metals and the renewable energy supply chain, experienced downward price trends, influenced by increased coal production and reduced demand for thermal coal [4][5] - The demand for refined copper surged as major economies engaged in a "copper grabbing" trend, driven by a proactive inventory replenishment cycle [3][5] Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals like gold and silver saw significant price increases of 24.7% and 24.5%, respectively, while agricultural products showed mixed trends [5][6] - The black metal sector faced a "dual weakness" in supply and demand, with steel prices declining over 15% and iron ore showing stronger performance due to increased consumption [6][7] - The lithium and silicon markets faced oversupply issues, leading to price declines, while the overall market dynamics indicated a need for improved trading strategies and risk management [6][7] Outlook for the Second Half - The second half of 2025 is expected to continue the "volatile" trend, with potential shifts in trade policies and geopolitical situations impacting commodity prices [7][8] - Analysts predict that the oil market may oscillate between surplus and production cuts, while "green metals" like copper are expected to maintain structural bullish trends [7][8] - The market may face supply surplus conditions, with price adjustments providing potential trading opportunities, particularly in copper and iron ore [7][8]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The fundamentals are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5% in June, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [3] - The basis shows a neutral situation with the spot price at 79,755 and a basis of -135, indicating a discount to the futures [3] - Inventory conditions are neutral. On July 24, copper inventory decreased by 50 to 124,775 tons, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons compared to last week [3] - The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - sloping, and the main positions are net long with a decrease in long positions [3] - The expected copper price will experience an oscillatory adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of Fed rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3] Group 2: Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [4] Group 3: Supply - Demand Balance - In the Chinese annual supply - demand balance table, there was a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance is expected in 2025. For example, in 2024, production was 12.06 million tons, imports were 3.73 million tons, exports were 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption was 15.34 million tons, actual consumption was 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was 0.11 million tons [21][23] Group 4: Other Market Conditions - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - The processing fee has declined [17]

Group 1: Report's Core Views - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis is neutral with the spot price at 79,875 and a basis of 285, showing a premium over the futures [2]. - Copper inventories present a neutral situation. On July 23, the copper inventory decreased by 25 to 124,825 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons compared to last week [2]. - The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upwards, and the net position of the main players is long and increasing [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. - The logic of recent market movements is influenced by domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - China's copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Group 2: China's Annual Copper Supply - Demand Balance Table | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Imports (10,000 tons) | Exports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 873 | 372 | 28 | 1217 | 1207 | 1 | | 2019 | 894 | 348 | 35 | 1207 | 1205 | | | 2020 | 930 | 452 | 21 | 1361 | 1291 | 70 | | 2021 | 998 | 344 | 27 | 1315 | 1361 | - 46 | | 2022 | 1028 | 367 | 23 | 1372 | 1380 | - 8 | | 2023 | 1144 | 351 | 28 | 1467 | 1477 | - 10 | | 2024 | 1206 | 373 | 46 | 1534 | 1523 | 11 | [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The report assesses the copper market as having a neutral to slightly bullish bias based on various factors. The overall expectation is that copper prices will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals show that smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79620 with a basis of - 80, indicating a discount to the futures price, considered neutral [3]. - Inventory data on July 21 shows a decrease of 100 tons to 122075 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3094 tons to 84556 tons compared to the previous week, considered neutral [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is trending upwards, which is bullish [3]. - The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing, also bullish [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The report mentions that domestic policy easing is a potential positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative factor [4]. Spot - The report provides information on spot prices including the location, middle price, and price changes, as well as inventory details such as type, total quantity, and quantity changes [7]. 期现价差 - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [8]. Exchange Inventory - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [12]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - No detailed content provided, only the title is given [18]. Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - The report presents the China annual supply - demand balance sheet for copper from 2018 to 2024, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, also neutral. The inventory has increased, with the copper inventory on July 18 rising by 25 to 122,175 tons and the SHFE copper inventory increasing by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons last week, which is neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending downward, suggesting a bearish signal. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish. Considering factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral, with smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and stable manufacturing PMI at 49.5% in June [3] - Basis: Neutral, with a spot price of 78,635 and a basis of 225, indicating a premium of the spot over the futures [3] - Inventory: Neutral, with an increase in copper inventory on July 18 and an increase in SHFE copper inventory last week [3] - Disk: Bearish, as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is trending downward [3] - Main positions: Bullish, with net long main positions and an increase in long positions [3] - Expectation: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to factors like the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak off - season consumption [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not elaborated [4] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [21] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [23] Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - The processing fee has declined [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a slight premium for spot over futures, and inventory data presents a mixed picture. The price is affected by factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, leading to a decline and adjustment in copper prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. The June manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, showing stable manufacturing sentiment; neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 78040, with a basis of 60, indicating a premium for spot over futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 16, copper inventory increased by 10525 tons to 121000 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3127 tons to 81462 tons compared to last week; neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices will decline and adjust [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Leverage Factors**: Domestic policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned, but specific impacts are not detailed [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: Information on LME and SHFE inventories is presented, including inventory quantity and changes [6][12]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [20][22].