Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic approach in 2026, focusing on enhancing quality and efficiency through proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary in 2026, with a projected deficit rate around 4%. Special bonds are anticipated to increase slightly compared to 2025, with estimates of 5 trillion yuan in special bonds and approximately 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds [2][3] - Analysts predict that the fiscal policy will focus on "investing in people," with an increase in overall fiscal expenditure and an emphasis on optimizing expenditure structure [2][3] Monetary Policy - There is potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates in 2026, with expectations of 1 to 2 reserve requirement cuts of 50 to 100 basis points and 1 to 2 interest rate cuts of 10 to 20 basis points [3] - Structural policy tools are likely to continue expanding, supporting key areas such as technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance [3] Policy Integration - The meeting highlights the importance of integrating existing and new policies to enhance their effectiveness, suggesting that large-scale economic stimulus measures are unlikely in the short term [4] - The focus will be on optimizing the efficiency of existing policies and resources, including improving credit structures and consolidating various subsidies and support funds [4] Demand-Side Incentives - Demand-side incentives, such as birth subsidies and trade-in programs, are expected to continue, indicating a sustained effort to promote consumption and improve living standards [5] - The emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments suggests a balanced approach to addressing both short-term and long-term economic challenges [5]

（原标题：学习笔记｜推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长） 第三，会议首次提出，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应。须知，增量政策往往是用于应对经济运行中 的突发情况和重大问题。同时，经济政策和产业政策都存在"递延"和"拖尾"的特征，政策从研究、出台 到实施、见效，需要经历一个存在"时滞"过程。增量政策的出台，起到的是一个"脉冲"的效应；存量政 策的落实，起到的则是一个"平滑"的作用。 最后，重点工作上，本次部署了8大重点任务。考虑到明年增长的外部不确定性增多，因此必须要借 助"十五五"开局之年的良好势头，把投资"快变量"的特征发挥出来，同时带动消费和物价持续回升。 12月8日，中共中央政治局会议召开，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议提出，坚持稳中求进工作总基 调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增 强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产 力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预 期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好 ...

会议肯定了今年以来我国经济运行"总体平稳、稳中有进"的态势，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出 新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 对明年的经济工作，会议指出要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理 效能。 在多位受访人士看来，今年宏观经济在复杂多变的内外部环境下依然展现出一定的韧性，"十四五"平稳 收官，"十五五"蓄势待发。从政策基调看，明年的政策基调在于既有政策框架内执行的"质"和"效"，将 政策效力落到实处。从"以进促稳"到"提质增效"，政策重心从稳增长走向调结构。 稳增长与提质增效并重 回溯去年12月召开的政治局会议，彼时已明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完 善政策工具箱。货币政策方面，告别沿用十多年的"稳健"，"适度宽松"重回政策视野。在财政政策方 面，"实施更加积极的财政政策" 为狭义财政赤字和广义赤字提升释放了预期信号。 而在今年12月政治局会议中再次明确，2026年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极 的财政 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to enhance macroeconomic governance and stimulate economic growth in 2026 [1][2] - The focus will shift from "incremental" policies to a more integrated approach that combines both stock and incremental policies to optimize consumption and investment, thereby creating new growth momentum [1][2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply as a strategic foundation for responding to international economic challenges [2][3] Group 2 - Key measures to stimulate private investment have been introduced, aiming to enhance market-driven effective investment growth [2] - The emphasis on "optimizing increment and revitalizing stock" is crucial, requiring the development of new productive forces and the upgrading of traditional industries to ensure stable economic growth [2][3] - Revitalizing idle and inefficient assets, such as underutilized land and vacant properties, is a priority, along with improving policies related to mergers, bankruptcies, and market exits to eliminate ineffective capacity [3]

会议更加关注"持续扩大内需、优化供给"。扩大内需是构建新发展格局、应对国际经贸斗争的战略基 点。将扩大内需与优化供给结合起来，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、 供给和需求良性互动，能够增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性。 近日，我国出台进一步促进民间投资发展的13项措施，激发民间投资活力，增强市场主导的有效投资增 长动力。与此同时，相关部门制定并发布了《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方 案》，增强供给与需求的适配性，进一步释放消费潜力。这一系列着眼于优化供给的政策，主要是以优 质供给更好满足多元需求，实现供需更高水平动态平衡。 "做优增量、盘活存量"是关键。做优增量必须因地制宜发展新质生产力，培育战略性新兴产业和未来产 业；保持投资合理增长，提高投资效益，扩大有效投资。但是，相对我国经济巨大的存量，做优增量在 规模上不足以支撑经济稳定增长，因此，必须盘活存量，让存量资产和传统产业焕发新效能，包括优化 提升传统产业，推动技术改造升级，促进制造业数智化转型以及服务业优质高效发展。 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中 求 ...

"做优增量、盘活存量"是关键。做优增量必须因地制宜发展新质生产力，培育战略性新兴产业和未来产 业；保持投资合理增长，提高投资效益，扩大有效投资。但是，相对我国经济巨大的存量，做优增量在 规模上不足以支撑经济稳定增长，因此，必须盘活存量，让存量资产和传统产业焕发新效能，包括优化 提升传统产业，推动技术改造升级，促进制造业数智化转型以及服务业优质高效发展。 盘活存量的重点是盘活闲置与低效资产。要盘活用好低效用地、闲置房产、存量基础设施等。近日，国 家发展改革委对基础设施REITs发行范围作了进一步拓展，纳入商业办公设施、城市更新设施、体育场 馆、商旅文体健、四星级及以上酒店等资产。还需完善并购、破产、置换等政策，整治"内卷式"竞争， 鼓励兼并重组与市场退出，出清低效或无效产能。 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中 求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成 效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 明年"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，这与2025年的政策取向一致，保 ...

Group 1 - The core issue discussed is whether there will be large-scale economic stimulus or incremental policies in 2026, with the overall tone being stable and slightly less aggressive than previous communications [3][4] - The document emphasizes the integration of existing policies with new ones, indicating that the market's focus should not solely be on new policies but also on effectively implementing existing ones [3] - There is a shift in focus from absolute GDP growth to quality and efficiency, suggesting a need for a balanced approach to economic growth rather than just aiming for high growth rates [4] Group 2 - The document highlights the importance of balancing domestic economic work with international trade dynamics, indicating that policies may need to be adjusted based on external factors [4][5] - The absence of specific mentions of the real estate sector in the document suggests a potential shift in focus or priorities regarding this industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to domestic economic work and international economic struggles, highlighting the importance of policy effectiveness and economic growth [3][12]. Economic Policy Focus - The meeting reiterates the importance of "better coordinating domestic economic work and international economic struggles," reflecting concerns about external uncertainties and internal stability [3][12]. - The phrase "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" replaces "stabilizing through progress," indicating a focus on the quality, efficiency, and sustainability of policies [3][12]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to maintain an expansionary orientation with an anticipated deficit rate around 4%, with slight expansions in special bonds compared to 2025 [3][12]. Economic Growth Targets - The meeting sets a goal for economic growth, aiming for nominal and real GDP growth rates of approximately 4% and 4.4%, respectively, to achieve a doubling of economic output and per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 [4][13]. Policy Changes - New emphasis on "proactive targeting and coordination" in policy deployment, indicating a shift towards more integrated fiscal and monetary policies [4][14]. - The focus on domestic demand is reinforced, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to accelerate [5][14]. Reform and Market Development - The meeting stresses the importance of reform, particularly in advancing the construction of a unified national market, which includes standardizing market regulations and eliminating local protectionism [5][15]. - The focus on "people's livelihood" remains a priority, with policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [6][15]. Consumer and Investment Focus - The meeting highlights the need to increase the household consumption rate, with a specific target to address the gap in per capita service consumption compared to pre-pandemic levels [5][14]. - Investment policies are expected to support new infrastructure projects, particularly in digital infrastructure, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" goals [5][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The meeting affirmed the economic work this year, indicating that the main goals of economic and social development will be smoothly achieved, with an expected high probability of achieving the 5% GDP growth target this year. It also set the direction for next year's economic work, emphasizing "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency", and prioritizing the activation and utilization of existing resources and the improvement of quality and efficiency [1]. - The macro - policy orientation will continue this year's overall direction, with an active and expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. It also emphasizes the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [1]. - Expanding domestic demand remains the top priority, and it is necessary to better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, paying attention to international peripheral disturbance risks [2]. - Continue to increase scientific and technological innovation to lead the development of new - quality productivity, focusing on basic research, key core technology research, and promoting the digital and green transformation of traditional industries [3]. - The meeting did not mention real estate, and "systemic risks" were not mentioned in the risk prevention section, indicating that the current real estate market is weak but has passed the large - decline period, and the government's support for old driving forces may be reduced [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pre - meeting Situation and Next - year's Direction - This year's economic achievements include overall stable and progressive economic operation, the steady development of new - quality productivity, new steps in reform and opening - up, positive progress in risk resolution in key areas, and stronger people's livelihood security. The 5% GDP growth target is expected to be achieved. Next year, the focus will be on stability, quality improvement, and the activation of existing resources [1]. 3.2 Policy Orientation - **Macro - policy**: Continue the current active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, emphasize the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies, and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. Incremental policies may be more refined [1]. - **Domestic demand policy**: Expand domestic demand, continue to optimize supply, and better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles. Subsidies will be inclined to service consumption, and supply optimization will be promoted [2]. - **Innovation policy**: Continue to drive the development of new - quality productivity through innovation, strengthen basic research and key core technology research, and promote the digital and green transformation of traditional industries [3]. - **Risk - prevention policy**: Actively and steadily resolve risks in key areas, but do not mention "systemic risks". The real estate market is not mentioned, indicating a reduced focus on the old driving forces [4]. 3.3 Bond Market Impact - The meeting's statement had a limited impact on the bond market. The yield of the 10 - year active bond showed a slight increase. More policy directions need to be关注 the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. Historically, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has a higher probability of declining 5 - 10 trading days after the December meeting, and the probability of a continuous increase in medium - and long - term interest rates is low. Attention should be paid to the allocation value above the 1.85% key point [4].