Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish approach, recommending buying on dips [6]. Core Viewpoints - The current output pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still holds expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. The weekly-on-week recovery of apparent demand remains strong year-on-year, indicating strong resilience in off-season demand. The warming sentiment of winter storage may drive a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high, there has been continuous destocking recently, and if this trend continues, the pressure will ease. The hot-rolled coil futures have currently fallen below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and attention should be paid to the support around the 30-day moving average in the medium term. However, it has not completely broken out of the oscillation range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: The trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract on Monday decreased compared to the previous trading day. It showed a weak oscillation during the day, falling below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages in the short term. It closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.75%. The intraday low was 3,291 yuan, and the high was 3,340 yuan. The open interest decreased by 12,645 lots, and the trading volume was 486,769 lots [1]. - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -9 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it decreased by 118,300 tons. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of hot metal from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance [4]. - Demand: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand rebounded significantly this week, up 5,100 tons year-on-year. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, with demand still showing resilience, mainly driven by accelerated exports and rigid procurement in the manufacturing industry. The willingness of end-users to stock up actively is weak, and speculative demand is also weak [4]. - Inventory: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons week-on-week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If destocking can continue, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution-style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, rush for export market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6]. - Bearish factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The macro - policy will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to expand domestic demand and optimize supply. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are declining, domestic refinery profits are shrinking, and production is expected to drop significantly. Overseas supply remains tight, and China is expected to turn into a net exporter. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging and other sectors showing weakness, but the automotive sector has some policy - supported highlights. Technically, there is price correction with shrinking volume and reduced positions, and the bullish sentiment has declined. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will adjust at a high level, and attention should be paid to the support at the 23,000 level [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 23,070 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 10 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,130.5 dollars/ton, up 32 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 208,468 lots, down 6,432 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 13,905 lots, down 15 lots. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 91,916 tons, down 4,000 tons; the LME inventory is 57,750 tons, up 2,375 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,190 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is 120 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is 166.73 dollars/ton, up 3.73 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons. The zinc ore imports are 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc imports are 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc exports are 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 1.325 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the sales volume is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 15.28%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 15.28%, an increase of 0.98 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.94%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.75%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [3] Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of proactive policies to boost the economy. In November, China's passenger car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with fuel - powered cars dropping 22% and new energy vehicle growth unable to offset the decline, but exports increased by 52.4% [3]

Key Insights - The report emphasizes a continuation of a proactive policy stance, with an increased focus on domestic demand as a strategic priority for the economy in 2026 [5][6][8] - Export resilience is highlighted, with November 2025 showing a year-on-year export growth of 5.9%, reversing a previous decline [12][13] Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on December 8, 2025, reiterated the importance of balancing domestic economic work with international trade challenges, maintaining a focus on economic construction as a core task [5][6] - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a general deficit ratio around 4%, with broad deficit levels similar to 2025 [7] - Monetary policy is projected to have room for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a potential interest rate reduction of 10-20 basis points [7][8] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Growth - The meeting underscored the need to prioritize domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, indicating a strategic elevation of domestic demand's role in economic growth [8][10] - The focus on consumption is expected to shift towards services, with policies supporting the replacement of old goods to stimulate physical consumption [8][10] Group 3: Export Performance - November 2025 saw exports reach $330.35 billion, marking a historical high for the month, with a significant recovery from previous declines [12][13] - The report notes that while exports to the U.S. have decreased, there has been notable growth in exports to Africa, the EU, and Japan, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [15][16] - Intermediate goods and capital goods exports are expected to remain strong, supported by industrialization in emerging markets and infrastructure needs in regions like Africa [12][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to enhance macroeconomic governance and stimulate economic growth in 2026 [1][2] - The focus will shift from "incremental" policies to a more integrated approach that combines both stock and incremental policies to optimize consumption and investment, thereby creating new growth momentum [1][2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply as a strategic foundation for responding to international economic challenges [2][3] Group 2 - Key measures to stimulate private investment have been introduced, aiming to enhance market-driven effective investment growth [2] - The emphasis on "optimizing increment and revitalizing stock" is crucial, requiring the development of new productive forces and the upgrading of traditional industries to ensure stable economic growth [2][3] - Revitalizing idle and inefficient assets, such as underutilized land and vacant properties, is a priority, along with improving policies related to mergers, bankruptcies, and market exits to eliminate ineffective capacity [3]