据央行消息，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度（总第111次）例会于12月18日召开。会议 研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加强货 币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。保 持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，促进社会 综合融资成本低位运行。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自 律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率 的变化。畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率。增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超 调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the integration of incremental and stock policies in its monetary policy approach, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of various tools to adapt to domestic and international economic conditions [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC plans to maintain ample liquidity to align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1] - The central bank aims to strengthen the guidance of policy interest rates and improve the transmission mechanism of market-based interest rates [1] - There is a focus on observing and assessing the bond market from a macro-prudential perspective, particularly regarding changes in long-term yields [1] Group 2: Financial Market Stability - The PBOC intends to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [1] - The goal is to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [1]

● 本报记者 彭扬 ——看总量，始终保持流动性充裕。央行综合运用降准、国债买卖公开市场操作等多种货币政策工具， 构建起短期、中期、长期相结合的流动性供给体系，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。 支持性货币政策显效 2025年，央行着力实施好适度宽松的货币政策，从量价两端持续为实体经济注入金融活水。 货币政策工具精准发力、有序落地：5月，央行实施降准50个基点，释放长期流动性约1万亿元；10月， 央行恢复公开市场国债买卖操作……一系列举措有效地巩固了流动性充裕的格局，金融活水源源不断地 流向实体经济，为经济延续稳中有进态势提供坚实的金融支撑。 ——看价格，社会综合融资成本处于历史低位。政策发力既有政策利率牵引，也有精准滴灌。5月，央 行下调7天期逆回购利率，为贷款利率下行创造条件。同时，央行下调结构性货币政策工具利率和公积 金贷款利率，进一步拓宽利率下调的覆盖范围，增强政策支持力度。 数据印证了政策的实效。11月，企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约 30个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约3个基点。企业融 资和居民信贷成本均保持低位运行。 "继续实施 ...

中国央行党委召开会议，传达学习党的二十届四中全会精神。会议强调，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系。处理好短期与长期、支持实体经济增长与保持金融业自身健康性、内部与外部的关系。根据经济金融运行情况，把握好货币政策的力度、时机和节奏，充分释放各项货币政策效能，为经济稳定增长和高质量发展创造良好的货币金融环境。动态完善货币政策框架，加强货币政策执行和传导。深化人民币汇率形成机制改革，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。拓展丰富中央银行宏观审慎和金融稳定功能，维护股市、债市、汇市等金融市场平稳运行。继续会同有关部门做好支持地方中小金融机构、地方政府融资平台债务、房地产市场风险化解工作，严肃财经纪律、市场纪律和监管规则，防范道德风险。健全金融稳定保障体系，加快推进金融立法。 ...

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's financial risks are generally controllable, with financial institutions operating steadily and financial markets functioning smoothly, providing strong support for high-quality economic development [1] Group 1 - The financial stability bureau of the People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of recognizing existing risks and challenges in the current economic operation [1] - There is a need to maintain a balance between promoting growth and preventing risks, highlighting the necessity of a bottom-line thinking approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The meeting highlighted the effectiveness of the loan market quotation rate reform and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates, which have enhanced the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [1] - It was noted that social financing costs are at historically low levels, contributing to a stable operation of the financial market [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The analysis of domestic and international economic conditions indicates that China's economy is progressing steadily, with improved social confidence and new achievements in high-quality development [1] - However, challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels remain, necessitating the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments [1] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The meeting proposed strengthening monetary policy regulation with increased foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, aligning policy implementation with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - It emphasized maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply matches economic growth [2] - The need to strengthen the central bank's policy interest rate guidance and improve the market-based interest rate formation transmission mechanism was also highlighted [2]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The PBOC's monetary policy committee meeting highlighted the importance of using various monetary policy tools to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments and support the real economy [1] - The meeting acknowledged the challenges posed by a complex external environment, including weakened global economic growth and increased trade barriers, while domestic economic performance shows steady improvement [1][2] - The PBOC aims to maintain liquidity and ensure that social financing and money supply growth align with economic growth and price level expectations [2] Group 2: Financial Stability and Support for Key Sectors - The meeting called for large banks to play a leading role in providing financial services to the real economy, while smaller banks should focus on their core responsibilities [3] - Structural monetary policy tools will be effectively implemented to support technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [3] - The PBOC plans to enhance financial services for the private economy and improve financing access for small and micro enterprises [3] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Coordination - The PBOC emphasizes the need for coordinated macro policies to maintain stability and flexibility in economic management [4] - The meeting underscored the importance of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing expectations to sustain economic recovery momentum [4] - The PBOC aims to ensure the effective implementation of financial policies and enhance the management and risk prevention capabilities in an open economy [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The next - stage monetary policy may focus on maintaining ample liquidity while preventing the use of liquidity for long - bond speculation. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield may stabilize around the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the DR007 rate's fluctuation center may approach the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. The upward adjustment pressure on long - term yields may ease, but reasons for a downward trend are insufficient [3]. - The US 2Q GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, but the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. The US GDP growth may slow down. The US PCE inflation expanded in August, but the sustainability of consumer demand expansion is questionable. If the Fed cuts interest rates slowly, it may later be forced to cut them faster [3]. - The producer price index continued to decline month - on - month. The average wholesale price of pork and the price index of edible agricultural products decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in September 2025 was slightly lower than that in September 2024 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Prudence Perspective on Long - Term Yields - The third - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee proposed to strengthen the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, observe and evaluate the bond market from a macro - prudent perspective, and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. The next - stage monetary policy may focus on maintaining liquidity while preventing long - bond speculation [3]. - The 1 - year Treasury bond yield approaching the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate may reflect the market's expectation of no interest rate cuts or hikes. The DR007 rate's fluctuation center is higher than the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. To cooperate with fiscal policies, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield may stabilize around the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the DR007 rate may further approach it. The upward adjustment pressure on long - term yields may ease, but a downward trend is unlikely [3]. 3.2 US GDP Data Revision and PCE Price Increase - The US 2Q GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, but the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. Given the slowdown in non - farm employment growth, US GDP growth may slow down [3]. - The year - on - year increase in the US PCE price in August expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%. The expansion of PCE inflation was mainly due to the rebound in the nominal growth rate of personal consumption, but the consumer confidence index in September dropped. The sustainability of consumer demand expansion is questionable. If the Fed cuts interest rates slowly, it may later be forced to cut them faster [3]. 3.3 Producer Price Index and Commodity Prices - In the week of September 27, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.94% month - on - month and 25.25% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 32.56% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products in the week of September 19 decreased by 0.10% month - on - month and 13.24% year - on - year [3]. - Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 1.50% and 1.02% respectively on average week - on - week. The average weekly price of LME copper spot increased by 0.74%, and that of aluminum decreased by 1.95%. The copper - gold ratio decreased by 1.53% week - on - week [3]. - The domestic cement price index increased by 2.03% week - on - week, the South China iron ore index decreased by 0.04% on average week - on - week, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 0.16% week - on - week, the inventory of rebar decreased by 2.75% week - on - week, and the rebar price index increased by 0.18% week - on - week. The producer price index in the week of September 19 decreased by 0.20% month - on - month and 5.11% year - on - year [3]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 21.8 million square meters per day, slightly lower than the 22.9 million square meters per day in September 2024 [3]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents various high - frequency data, including domestic long - and short - term interest rate indicators, US non - farm employment and economic growth, US personal consumption growth, and high - frequency data's week - on - week changes [3][11][14]. - It also shows the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators, important high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe, the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, and high - frequency traffic data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [6].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments to align with domestic and international economic conditions, ensuring effective implementation of monetary measures [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, matching social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1][2] - The PBOC aims to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, stabilize market expectations, and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [1][2] Group 2 - The analysis of the current economic landscape indicates a more complex external environment, with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers, while domestic economic performance shows steady improvement despite challenges like insufficient domestic demand [2][3] - The meeting calls for large banks to play a crucial role in supporting the real economy, while smaller banks should focus on their core responsibilities and strengthen capital [3] - There is a strong emphasis on implementing structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [3][4] Group 3 - The PBOC stresses the importance of aligning with the directives from the 20th Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference, focusing on high-quality development and modernizing the economy [4] - The meeting underscores the need to enhance macro policy coordination, maintain policy continuity and stability, and stimulate domestic demand to sustain economic recovery [4]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a stable capital market through various monetary policy tools and structural measures to support economic recovery and high-quality development [1][2][4] Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The current external economic environment is increasingly complex, with weakening global growth and rising trade barriers, while domestic economic performance shows steady improvement despite challenges like insufficient demand and low prices [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining an appropriately loose monetary policy and enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price levels [2][3] Future Monetary Policy Directions - The focus will be on strengthening monetary policy regulation, improving its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, and ensuring that monetary supply aligns with economic growth and price expectations [3][4] - There is a commitment to maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, thereby matching social financing scale and money supply growth with economic targets [3] Financial Market Stability - Large banks are encouraged to play a key role in serving the real economy, while smaller banks should focus on their core responsibilities and enhance capital strength to jointly maintain financial market stability [4] - The meeting discussed the effective implementation of structural monetary policy tools to support sectors like technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [4] Real Estate and Financial Services - There is a focus on stabilizing the real estate market by enhancing financial support for existing properties and land, and improving the foundational financial systems for real estate development [4] - The meeting also emphasized the importance of supporting the development of the private economy and facilitating financing for small and micro enterprises [4]