1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea ex - factory prices have slightly decreased to attract orders, and transactions in some major producing areas have improved slightly. Environmental warnings in Hebei and Henan may continue to suppress the operations of urea enterprises and downstream industries. There is an expectation of reduced supply in the fourth - quarter due to gas - head maintenance starting in December and environmental warnings. On the demand side, off - season storage purchases are ongoing. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer sector has cooled due to raw material supply - guarantee policies, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined. The overall operating rate of melamine has decreased despite the resumption of some shutdown and production - cut devices. Factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. There is no new news on the export side. Attention should be paid to environmental restrictions, the raw material procurement rhythm of compound fertilizers, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchase sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][9][12][15] 3.2 Urea Production - Figures include urea weekly production and urea device maintenance loss volume [18] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [26][27][28][30] 3.4 Urea Foreign Prices and Export Profit - Figures show urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [32][40][43] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures involve compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [51][53] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of Hebei urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [54][56][63]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of urea has weakened, and downstream buyers are making purchases based on rigid demand. In the fourth quarter, gas - based urea plants began maintenance in December, and coal - based plants that were under maintenance have gradually resumed operations. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, and the daily urea output has slightly decreased. Currently, off - season storage purchases are ongoing. The operating rate of compound fertilizers in Northeast China continues to increase, but some plants in Hubei and other regions have insufficient operations due to raw material and weather factors, and the operating rate in Henan has decreased due to environmental protection. With the introduction of policies to ensure the supply of raw materials such as sulfur, sulfuric acid, and phosphate fertilizers, the sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled. Melamine plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded, with rigid demand for purchases. As off - season storage progresses, factory inventories are being depleted, and port inventories are slightly increasing. The subsequent purchase rhythm will slow down. Currently, new orders are decreasing, and the spot price has been lowered in major regions, with downstream buyers adopting a wait - and - see attitude. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in Northeast China, the raw material purchase rhythm, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchase sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents information on the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][6][7] 2. Urea Production - It shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes data on production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [25][26][28] 4. Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - Information on the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the difference between overseas and Chinese prices, and the export profit and disk export profit of urea is provided [31][35][40] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, as well as the number of days of pending orders, are presented [56] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, and the futures warehouse receipts, as well as the trading volume and open interest of the main contract [54][58][63] Market Analysis Price and Basis - On December 15, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,629 yuan/ton (+4). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,670 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,700 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu it was 1,680 yuan/ton (- 10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 71 yuan/ton (- 14), in Henan it was 41 yuan/ton (- 24), and in Jiangsu it was 51 yuan/ton (- 14). The urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (- 10), and the export profit was 844 yuan/ton (- 30) [1] Supply Side - As of December 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 81.85% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2342 million tons (- 56,300), and the inventory of port samples was 123,000 tons (+18,000). In the fourth quarter, gas - based urea plants began maintenance in December, and coal - based plants that were under maintenance have gradually resumed operations. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, and the daily urea output has slightly decreased [1][2] Demand Side - As of December 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.62% (+0.09%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.86% (+0.20%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.94 days (- 0.41). Currently, off - season storage purchases are ongoing. The operating rate of compound fertilizers in Northeast China continues to increase, but some plants in Hubei and other regions have insufficient operations due to raw material and weather factors, and the operating rate in Henan has decreased due to environmental protection. With the introduction of policies to ensure the supply of raw materials such as sulfur, sulfuric acid, and phosphate fertilizers, the sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled. Melamine plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded, with rigid demand for purchases [1][2] Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of urea are relatively strong, and there is support for the decline in the futures price. Although the urea futures price dropped on Monday, it is difficult for it to fall significantly under the support of gas restrictions, exports, and winter storage. During the roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices rose steadily during the week. Although high - price order transactions were limited, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and a strong willingness to hold prices. Since the weekend, prices have remained stable, and new order transactions are limited [3]. 2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price showed different trends each day. As of December 8, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,646 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 1. The weekly trading volume was 1,163.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86 million tons; the open interest was 712.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13 million tons. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17 yuan/ton. On December 8, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,526, a week - on - week increase of 3,589 [5][8]. 3. Urea Supply - side - Last week, urea weekly output decreased. From November 27 to December 3, the weekly output was 1.3851 billion tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%. Coal - based weekly output decreased slightly, and gas - based weekly output decreased by 9.26%. In the next cycle, the output is still expected to decrease mainly. On December 8, the national daily output of urea was 202,800 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57%. The price of动力煤 (steam coal) decreased, and the price of liquefied natural gas, synthetic ammonia, and methanol also declined [12][13][15]. 4. Urea Demand - side - As of December 5, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased. The compound fertilizer factory's new orders were few, and it mainly executed previous orders. The operating load continued to increase, and the finished - product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate was close to the historical high level, and the room for further increase in operation was limited. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine increased, but there was a risk of weak growth in the future. Urea inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to rise [17][19]. 5. International Market - International urea prices declined across the board this week. After the end of the Indian tender, the international urea market was mainly stable. The next round of tender is expected to start in January next year, and the next procurement cycle in the US is expected to be from January to February 2026. As of December 5, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in various regions decreased week - on - week [21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The urea market is in a narrow - range shock pattern. The recovery of urea maintenance devices has increased the daily output. Agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, but the increase in the start - up rate of compound fertilizers and the strengthening of other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin provide support. Against the background of high daily output and high inventory, the continuous upward momentum of urea is insufficient, and the reference range for the 01 contract is 1600 - 1700 [3]. Summary by Directory Market Changes - The weekly price center of urea has moved slightly upward. On November 21, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1654 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from last week, with a maximum of 1675 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1641 yuan/ton during the period. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1630 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton from last week, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The main - contract basis of urea has continuously strengthened, and on November 21, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 24 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 68) - (- 24) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea fluctuated in a narrow range, and on November 21, the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 75) - (- 70) yuan/ton [3][4][7]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of China's urea plants is 85.85%, an increase of 1.92 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 72.89%, unchanged from last week, and the daily average output of urea is 20.29 tons. Next week, some maintenance devices in Shanxi, Henan, Yunnan and other places are planned to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase slightly [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market is running stably. As of November 20, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi is 900 - 960 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as last week [3][14]. Demand - In the north, winter wheat is in the concentrated sowing period, with more than 50% sown in Shandong, nearly 30% in Henan, nearly 70% in Shanxi, nearly 40% in Jiangsu, nearly 70% in Hubei, more than 40% in Sichuan, and more than 30% in Chongqing. In the south, late rice is in the large - scale harvesting stage, with the harvest basically completed in Hunan and Jiangxi, about 30% in Zhejiang, and more than 50% in Guangxi. The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 34.61%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory is 65.48 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from last week. Recently, the start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased, and the speed of finished product destocking has slowed down. The support of other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin has strengthened [3][22]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 124.6 tons, a decrease of 3.7 tons from last week. Urea port inventory is 27.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts is 7183, totaling 14.366 tons, unchanged from last week [3][28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have declined from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The UR2601 contract basis is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.7%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are the strong international price and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory is slightly down. Agricultural demand rebounds due to weather, industrial demand is weak. Export volume increases with large price difference, but domestic market is still oversupplied. Spot price of delivery product is 1570 (+0), overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: UR2601 contract basis is -74, premium/discount ratio is -4.7%, bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today considering weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international prices and increasing export volume, but obvious domestic oversupply [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 with an 11.0% growth rate [9]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1570 with no change, Shandong spot price is 1580 with no change, Henan spot price is 1570 with no change, and FOB China price is 2690 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1644 (+11), the basis is -74 (-11), UR05 price is 1727 (+12), and UR09 price is 1750 (+11) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), the UR manufacturer inventory is 155.4 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 11 million tons [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The international urea price is strong, but the export policy has not been significantly liberalized, and the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been volatile. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high level. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has rebounded, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The domestic urea market still has an obvious oversupply situation, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 60, and the premium/discount ratio is 3.5%, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 137.1 million tons (-4.0), which is bearish [5]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [5]. - **Likely Factors**: The international price is strong, which is a bullish factor; the high operating rate and daily production, as well as the weak domestic demand, are bearish factors. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [6]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), the Shandong spot price is 1730 (-30), the Henan spot price is 1740 (0), and the FOB China price is 3271 [7]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1670 (-11), the basis is 60 (-19), the price of the UR05 contract is 1725 (-9), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1745 (-10) [7]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 8188 (-80), the comprehensive UR inventory is 137.1 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 88.8 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 48.3 million tons [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown certain trends of change. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the production is 3425, the net import volume is 360, the apparent consumption is 3785, and the actual consumption is 3778.25 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently facing a situation of high supply and weak domestic demand, with the overall supply-demand imbalance still significant. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is high, the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. It is expected that the UR contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been volatile. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high position. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is at a medium level, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 74, and the premium/discount ratio is 4.2%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.371 million tons (-40,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract is volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1760 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1686 | 3 | Warehouse Receipt | 8279 | -334 | | Shandong Spot | 1760 | 0 | Basis | 74 | -3 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 137.1 | -4.0 | | Henan Spot | 1780 | 0 | UR01 | 1686 | 3 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 88.8 | - | | FOB China | 3273 | - | UR05 | 1737 | 6 | UR Port Inventory | 48.3 | - | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1757 | 7 | - | - | - | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend of urea is under pressure this week. Although exports are accelerating, the price - driving effect is expected to be limited due to pre - prepared goods by traders. Weak domestic demand is the main contradiction, and it is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening of domestic demand. The medium - term trend is under pressure. The inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to show a slight accumulation pattern next week. [2][3][4] - For trading strategies, the unilateral trend is weak. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and spot transactions during the week. The upper pressure is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 1600 - 1620 yuan/ton. For the 01 contract, it is recommended to short at high prices. For inter - period spreads, conduct reverse spreads for 10 - 1/11 - 1 month spreads and 1 - 5 month spreads. There is no suggestion for inter - variety spreads. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spreads - The report presents multiple charts about urea basis (including Zhengyuan, Jinkai, Boda, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, showing the price and spread trends of urea over the years. [7][11][17][22] 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 4270,000 tons, and in 2025, the expected new capacity is 3,460,000 tons. Multiple enterprises have new capacity coming on - stream or old capacity being replaced. [26] - **Production Plan**: The report lists the overhaul plans of multiple urea production enterprises, including details such as the start and end dates of shutdowns, reasons, and whether the shutdowns are on schedule. [30] - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high. The report also shows the historical trends of daily output and capacity utilization rate of urea in China. [31][32] - **Cost**: Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides cost calculations for different production processes in Shanxi, such as fixed - bed and gas - based processes, and shows the historical trends of full - cost curves for different processes. [34] - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the profit trends of different production processes (fixed - bed, fluid - bed, gas - based) over the years. [40] - **Net Import (Export)**: With the adjustment of export policies, subsequent export volumes may increase. The report provides monthly and annual export data from 2018 to 2025. [45] 3.3 Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand shows seasonal characteristics. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. The report details the agricultural demand for urea in different regions and seasons throughout the year. [51][54] - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry has low capacity utilization, high inventory, and low production profit. The report shows relevant data trends over the years. [59][60] - **Melamine**: The production profit of melamine has certain fluctuations, and its output and capacity utilization also show corresponding trends. [62][63] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The report shows the export data of wood products and the trends of real - estate construction and completion areas. [64][65] 3.4 Inventory - Factory inventory: On September 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,700 tons or 3.44%. The inventory of some enterprises decreased due to export orders, while that of non - exporting enterprises increased due to weak domestic demand. [70] - Port inventory: As of September 11, 2025 (week 37), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 549,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71,500 tons or 11.52%. The port inventory trend changed from rising to falling. [70] 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as CFR prices in Brazil over the years. [73][74]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the urea futures market showed a trend of first decline and then rise, with an overall increase. The spot market had a slow start in the first half - week, and the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders. In the second half - week, the factory orders were sufficient, and the prices stabilized. The overall market trading sentiment was lukewarm. - The supply of urea increased last week, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to rise next week. The high inventory level in recent five years restricts the upward space of urea prices. - The domestic demand is in a slack period, but the industrial demand has resilience, and the export to India and the Indian tender price provide support. The urea price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term with no obvious boost [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half - week, the domestic demand in the urea spot market was weak, and the upstream factories lowered their quotes. The situation of attracting orders at low prices was acceptable. In the second half - week, the factories had sufficient pending orders, and the quotes were stable. The market trading sentiment was lukewarm. Since the weekend, the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, but the market activity was low [3]. b) Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume last week was 1,025.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 479.45 million tons; the open interest was 614.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.92 million tons. Currently, the futures price fluctuates between 1,700 - 1,790 yuan/ton. - Last week, the increase of urea futures was stronger than that of the spot, and the basis weakened. As of August 18, the basis of the 01 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. - On August 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,573, a week - on - week decrease of 50 [6][8]. c) Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From August 7 - 13, the weekly output of urea was 1.3486 million tons, an increase of 20,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The average daily output was 192,700 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons week - on - week. Among them, the coal - based weekly output was 1.059 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22%; the gas - based weekly output was 289,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The output of small and medium - sized particles increased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the output of large - sized particles decreased by 8.50% week - on - week. - Next week, it is expected that 1 - 2 enterprises plan to stop production, and 3 - 5 enterprises will resume production. As of August 18, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 194,200 tons, and the operating rate was 82.69%. - In the raw material market, the coal supply was tight, which boosted the coal price. As of August 18, the quotation of Qinhuangdao steam - coal Q5500 was 697 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the price of anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng market remained flat at 900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas decreased last week. As of August 18, the benchmark price was 4,040 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. - Last week, the price of synthetic ammonia decreased. As of August 15, the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,180 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of urea decreased last week. The price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong was 480 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol increased. As of August 15, the quotation of methanol was 2,390 yuan/ton, and the price difference between methanol and urea was 690 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 55 yuan/ton [12][14][15]. d) Urea Demand - side - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat. As of August 15, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating load has continued to rise to the high level of the same period in history. The finished product inventory in the factory has been at a high level for several months. During the initial stage of autumn compound fertilizer production, there is no pressure for compound fertilizer factories to purchase raw materials. From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 43.48%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points from the previous week, and 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. - From August 8 - 14, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from the previous period, and 17.82 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, summer maintenance started, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The terminal panel furniture market is sluggish, affected by the real estate industry. - As of August 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%, and 520,200 tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous week [17][19]. e) International Market - After China started urea exports, the tight supply situation in the international urea market began to ease. Currently, the inventory in India is still low, and it is expected to start another import tender around September. The tender demand from India provides support for the global urea market. It is expected that China's exports will end in October, and Brazil's imports are expected to resume in September. - India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, targeting to purchase 2 million tons (1 million tons each for the east and west coasts). The bid closing date is September 2, the bid validity period is September 10, and the shipping date is October 31. - As of August 15, the FOB price of small - sized Chinese urea was 450 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - sized Chinese urea was 460 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton. The prices of other regions also showed different degrees of decline [20][21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Agricultural demand for urea is steadily rising as downstream agricultural top - dressing and fertilizer preparation continue, but industrial demand is weakening with declining capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and low - level operation of melamine [2] - Urea production is at a high level with few planned device overhauls, so supply pressure is large. However, due to the release of agricultural demand, factory pre - sales orders are increasing and enterprise inventories are decreasing [2] - In terms of exports, there is still port - collection demand, but the new export quota is unclear, and the export benefits are gradually weakening. Port inventories have increased significantly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report may use figures such as the Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, and Henan main - continuous basis to analyze the urea basis structure, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - The report likely uses figures on urea weekly production and urea device overhaul loss volume to analyze urea production, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report may analyze urea production profit and operating rate through figures including production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][21][29] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - The report may analyze urea offshore price and export profit using figures such as the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, FOB price of small - particle urea in China, CFR price of large - particle urea in China, urea export profit, and disk export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [24][25][30] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - The report may analyze urea downstream operation and orders through figures including compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, melamine capacity utilization rate, and pre - order days of urea enterprises, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [41][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report may analyze urea inventory and warehouse receipts using figures such as upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][47][50]