撰 文 / 伏芳香、齐云龙 既然这里面起关键作用的是人类决策，那我们有必要对人的心理机制有更多清晰的认识，以避免或 者至少减少此类惨剧的再次发生。 为什么智驾出事的司机，那么盲目相信技术？开启智驾后，人们的接管速度还会那么快吗？车载智 驾真的已经做到"更像人"、"如老司机般"的程度了吗？为什么出事后，舆情会呈现一边倒的状况？ 这背后，涉及哪些心理学原理和机制呢，这里给大家一一解读。 幸存者偏差，实验室里的"安全神话" 幸存者偏差（Survivorship Bias）是指人们往往只关注成功案例而忽视失败案例的逻辑谬误。这种 认知陷阱，在智驾领域正在制造危险的"安全神话"。车企公布的实验室数据如同经过精心筛选的幸 存者样本：那些完美触发AEB（自动紧急制动）的测试场景，掩盖了真实道路环境中诸如锥形桶、 侧翻车辆等非标准障碍物的"小概率"致命风险。 幸存者偏差研究的历史可以追溯到二战期间。当时美军战机在空战中损失惨重，为了提高飞机的防 御能力，统计了作战飞机的受损情况。他们发现，返航飞机各个损伤部位被击中的弹孔数不同，发 动机部位的弹孔数最少，而机身和机翼的弹孔较多，得出的结论是应该在这些弹孔最密集的部位加 上装甲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "rosy retrospection" phenomenon, where individuals tend to remember the past more positively than it actually was, especially when dissatisfied with their current lives. This leads to a romanticized view of past opportunities and a misunderstanding of the challenges faced by previous generations [1][2]. Group 1: Perception of Past Opportunities - The "rosy retrospection" effect is particularly pronounced when individuals face pressures in their current lives, leading them to idealize their childhood and the perceived opportunities of past decades [2]. - There is a narrative among older generations that suggests younger people are not working hard enough, while simultaneously, some individuals adopt a more favorable stance towards the younger generation, arguing that past successes were due to easier circumstances [2][3]. Group 2: Survivor Bias and Historical Context - The article highlights that true opportunities in any era are not evenly distributed, and the so-called "era dividends" are often a product of survivor bias, where only the successful stories are told [5]. - Historical examples, such as the entrepreneurial successes of the 1980s and 1990s, are contrasted with the reality that many individuals faced significant hardships and low survival rates in their ventures during those times [5][7]. Group 3: Individual Efforts vs. Era Influence - While acknowledging the impact of the era on personal development, the article emphasizes that the majority of individuals do not benefit from the same opportunities, with a significant percentage of contemporaries experiencing failure [10]. - The narrative that success is solely due to favorable times overlooks the personal efforts and sacrifices made by individuals, which are crucial for achieving success [14]. Group 4: Current Opportunities and Future Outlook - The article notes that despite challenges in the current job market, there are still significant opportunities, particularly in emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy, where younger individuals are actively participating [11]. - It encourages a mindset shift from viewing the past as a golden age to recognizing that every era has its unique challenges and opportunities, and that success requires adaptation and innovation [12][15].

Group 1 - The article discusses the emotional and psychological challenges faced by investors in the stock market, particularly the struggle to recover losses and the tendency to make impulsive decisions based on market movements [1][11][17] - The author reflects on the shift from technology stocks to dividend stocks, highlighting the frustration of experiencing losses in one sector while another performs well [1][2] - The concept of "survivorship bias" is introduced, emphasizing that consistent profitability in investing is often misunderstood and that many investors fail to recognize the underlying risks [3][6] Group 2 - The article provides an example of closed-end funds, illustrating how buying at a discount can lead to significant returns during a bull market, with potential total returns reaching 300% over ten years [4][5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and the long-term benefits of low-risk investments, suggesting that successful investing is more about strategy than personality traits [6][13] - The discussion includes the notion that many investors lack the necessary knowledge and discipline, often leading to poor decision-making and losses [7][15][16]