Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the beer market, particularly in China, while showing signs of marginal improvement in the second quarter [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Budweiser APAC's revenue was $3.136 billion, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year; net profit was $409 million, down 24.4%; total sales volume was 4.363 billion liters, a decline of 6.1% [1]. - The second quarter showed a smaller revenue decline of 3.9% compared to a 7.5% decline in the first quarter, indicating a trend of marginal improvement [1]. - Average revenue per hectoliter increased by 0.5% year-on-year for the first half, with a 2.4% increase in the second quarter, contrasting with a 1.5% decline in the first quarter [1]. Regional Performance - In China, sales volume decreased by 8.2% and revenue by 9.5% in the first half, with a 7.4% decline in sales volume and a 6.4% decline in revenue in the second quarter [2]. - The Indian market experienced double-digit growth in revenue and sales volume for high-end products, continuing to drive overall growth [2]. - In South Korea, sales volume showed a high single-digit decline, while revenue also decreased significantly due to reduced sales volume, although average revenue per hectoliter saw low single-digit growth [2]. Inventory Management - Inventory adjustment was a key operational focus for Budweiser APAC in the first half, with proactive measures taken to align inventory levels with market conditions [3]. - The company reported lower inventory levels and days compared to the previous year, indicating effective inventory management [3]. Strategic Focus - The new CEO and sales leadership are undergoing structural and strategic adjustments, facing challenges in channel transformation, management efficiency, and external risks [3]. - The company plans to focus on controllable areas, increasing investment in brands like Budweiser and Harbin, while expanding non-immediate consumption channels and enhancing execution [3]. - Analysts suggest that the company may see marginal recovery in the Chinese market in the second half, but emphasize the need for time to build brand influence and establish non-immediate consumption channels [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to inventory reduction and the impact of a fertility subsidy program [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenue of 9.1-9.3 billion for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.9%-9.9% [1]. - The projected net profit for H1 2025 is estimated to be between 1.0-1.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36%-47% [1]. - The company plans to allocate no less than 1.0 billion for share buybacks and expects to distribute dividends of at least 2.0 billion in 2025, down from 2.72 billion in the previous year [1][2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company forecasts low single-digit growth for full-year revenue, with H2 2025 revenue expected to increase by 10%-15% [2]. - The anticipated completion of inventory adjustments in Q3 2025 is expected to positively impact revenue [2]. - The company plans to launch higher-end products in H2 2025, which may drive revenue improvement [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company has announced a share buyback plan and a commitment to dividend distribution, enhancing shareholder returns [2][3]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in newborn population growth and the implementation of fertility subsidies, suggesting a potential industry improvement cycle of 2-3 years [2]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with a target price set at 5.1 HKD and a recommendation downgrade to "recommended" [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) has been downgraded to "Recommended" due to lower-than-expected performance [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 9.1-9.3 billion with a year-on-year decline of 7.9%-9.9% and a net profit of 1-1.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 36%-47% for the first half of 2025 [2][7]. - The company plans to invest no less than 1 billion in share buybacks and expects to distribute dividends of no less than 2 billion in 2025, down from 2.72 billion in the same period last year [2][7]. - The company anticipates low single-digit growth for the full year, with a projected revenue increase of 10%-15% in the second half of 2025 [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (million) for 2024 is projected at 20,749, with a slight increase to 20,766 in 2025, and further growth to 22,054 in 2026 [4]. - The net profit (million) is expected to decline from 3,570 in 2024 to 3,025 in 2025, before recovering to 3,602 in 2026 [4]. - Earnings per share (CNY) are forecasted to decrease from 0.39 in 2024 to 0.33 in 2025, with a gradual increase to 0.40 in 2026 [4]. Market Performance - The target price for the stock is set at 5.1 HKD, with the current price at 4.58 HKD [4][7]. - The company maintains a market capitalization of 41.5 billion HKD and a total share capital of 9.067 billion shares [5][7]. Industry Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in newborn population growth and the implementation of fertility subsidies, which may improve industry conditions over the next 2-3 years [7]. - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the infant formula market, with a strong channel foundation and plans to launch higher-end products in the second half of 2025 [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $332.1 million, a 10% increase year-over-year compared to $302 million in Q1 2024, but a decrease of 2.1% sequentially from $339.3 million in Q4 2024 [12][19] - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $104.7 million, representing 31.5% of revenue, down from 33% in the prior year quarter and 32.7% in the previous quarter [12] - GAAP net loss for Q1 2025 was $4.4 million, or a loss per share of $0.10, compared to net income of $14 million or $0.30 per diluted share in the prior year quarter [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive and industrial markets accounted for 42% of Q1 product revenue, maintaining the same level as the previous quarter [8][20] - The computing market showed strong performance, particularly in AI-related applications, contributing significantly to revenue growth [8][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asia represented 78% of revenue, Europe 13%, and North America 9% in Q1 2025, with improvements noted across all regions [19] - Channel inventory levels decreased, indicating a better alignment with actual demand [9][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a $100 million stock repurchase program, reflecting confidence in future growth prospects [10] - The hybrid manufacturing model allows the company to adapt to changing market conditions and customer needs, mitigating tariff impacts [10][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about continued growth, expecting Q2 2025 to show both year-over-year and sequential growth [9][30] - The company is closely monitoring the impact of tariffs and adjusting its strategies accordingly [29] Other Important Information - Cash flow from operations was $56.7 million for Q1 2025, with free cash flow of $40.8 million [16] - Total inventory days decreased to approximately 187 days, down from 193 days in the previous quarter [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Demand Pull Forward and Stability - Management noted that while tariffs create uncertainty, they do not see significant demand pull forward but rather an improvement in channel inventory and backlog [35][38] Question: Manufacturing Footprint and Tariff Impact - The hybrid manufacturing model remains a priority, and the company will continue to port products from external to internal manufacturing without changing its strategy due to tariffs [40][41] Question: AI CapEx Trends - Demand for AI-related products is strong, particularly in data centers and edge computing, with ongoing design wins expected to drive future growth [43][45] Question: Gross Margin Catalysts - Management highlighted that while there are pressures on margins, improvements in internal loading and product mix are expected to drive margin expansion in the second half of the year [48][51] Question: Inventory Normalization - Current inventory levels are slightly above the target range of 11 to 14 weeks, but management is comfortable with the levels supporting anticipated growth [59][60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $332.1 million, a 10% increase year-over-year compared to $302 million in Q1 2024, but a decrease of 2.1% sequentially from $339.3 million in Q4 2024 [12][18] - GAAP net loss for Q1 2025 was $4.4 million, or a loss per share of $0.10, compared to net income of $14 million or $0.30 per diluted share in Q1 2024 [14] - Non-GAAP adjusted net income for Q1 2025 was $8.8 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, down from $13 million or $0.28 per diluted share in Q1 2024 [14] - EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $26.2 million, or 7.9% of revenue, compared to $48.3 million or 16% of revenue in the prior year period [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive and industrial markets accounted for 42% of Q1 2025 product revenue, maintaining the same level as the previous quarter [7][19] - The computing segment represented 27% of product revenue, with ongoing design momentum in AI server and data center applications [18][25] - Consumer market revenue was 17%, while communication market revenue was 14% [19][27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asia represented 78% of revenue, Europe 13%, and North America 9% in Q1 2025, with improvements noted across all regions [18] - Channel inventory levels decreased, indicating a better alignment with actual demand [7][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a $100 million stock repurchase program, reflecting confidence in future growth prospects [10] - The hybrid manufacturing model allows the company to adapt to global customer needs and mitigate tariff impacts [10][28] - The focus remains on content expansion and gaining market share in the automotive sector as it recovers [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about growth prospects in 2025 and beyond, despite current economic uncertainties due to tariffs [29] - The company expects revenue for Q2 2025 to increase to approximately $355 million, representing 11% growth year-over-year [17] Other Important Information - Total inventory days at the end of Q1 2025 were approximately 187, down from 193 in the previous quarter [16] - Cash flow provided by operations was $56.7 million for Q1 2025, with free cash flow of $40.8 million [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Demand pull forward due to inventory levels and tariffs - Management noted that while tariffs create uncertainty, they do not see significant demand pull forward, but rather an improvement in channel inventory and backlog [35][36] Question: Impact of tariffs on manufacturing strategy - The hybrid manufacturing model will continue to be a focus, with no changes to the strategy despite tariff issues [39][40] Question: AI CapEx trends and regional demand - Demand is strong in data center applications, particularly among hyperscalers, with positive trends in edge computing as well [44][46] Question: Gross margin catalysts and potential headwinds - Management expects margin improvement in the second half of the year, driven by increased revenue and improved product mix [48][52] Question: Normalization of distributor inventories - Current inventory levels are slightly above the target range of 11 to 14 weeks, but management is comfortable with the levels supporting expected growth [58]

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