Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to inventory reduction and the impact of a fertility subsidy program [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve revenue of 9.1-9.3 billion for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.9%-9.9% [1]. - The projected net profit for H1 2025 is estimated to be between 1.0-1.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36%-47% [1]. - The company plans to allocate no less than 1.0 billion for share buybacks and expects to distribute dividends of at least 2.0 billion in 2025, down from 2.72 billion in the previous year [1][2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company forecasts low single-digit growth for full-year revenue, with H2 2025 revenue expected to increase by 10%-15% [2]. - The anticipated completion of inventory adjustments in Q3 2025 is expected to positively impact revenue [2]. - The company plans to launch higher-end products in H2 2025, which may drive revenue improvement [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company has announced a share buyback plan and a commitment to dividend distribution, enhancing shareholder returns [2][3]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in newborn population growth and the implementation of fertility subsidies, suggesting a potential industry improvement cycle of 2-3 years [2]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with a target price set at 5.1 HKD and a recommendation downgrade to "recommended" [3].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Feihe has led to a significant decline in its market value, with a projected revenue drop and net profit decrease for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Feihe expects revenue for the first half of 2025 to be approximately 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan, down from 10.1 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, representing a decline of about 8% to 10% [1]. - The projected net profit for the first half of 2025 is estimated to be between 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 37% to 47% [1]. - Following the announcement, Feihe's stock price plummeted by 17.02% on the next trading day and an additional 3.17% the following day, resulting in a total market value loss of 10.15 billion HKD, equivalent to approximately 9.28 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in birth rates poses a long-term challenge for the infant formula industry, with Feihe's revenue and profit having previously increased in 2024, but now facing a downturn again in 2025 [1][16]. - Feihe has initiated a substantial fertility subsidy program valued at 1.2 billion yuan to attract potential customers, but this strategy may lead to a price war and does not guarantee revenue growth [2][3]. - Competitors such as Yili and Junlebao have also launched similar subsidy programs, which may dilute the effectiveness of Feihe's efforts to capture market share [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Growth Challenges - Feihe's inventory levels have increased significantly, with stock surpassing 2 billion yuan, and inventory turnover days rising from 80 days in 2021 to 113.7 days in 2024 [6][10]. - The management anticipates completing inventory adjustments by the third quarter of 2025, but the impact of the subsidy program on revenue may be more pronounced in the second half of the year [9][10]. - Analysts from various financial institutions have revised their growth expectations for Feihe, with projections indicating a potential revenue growth of only 0.5% for 2025, down from earlier estimates of 9% [5]. Group 4: Product Strategy and Market Trends - Feihe plans to launch higher-end products in the second half of 2025, aligning with market trends that show growth in the ultra-premium segment of the infant formula market [12][11]. - Data indicates that the ultra-high-end market has seen a year-on-year growth of 13.3% in early 2025, while other segments have experienced declines [12]. - Despite these efforts, the performance of new products remains uncertain, and the overall demand for infant formula is declining due to lower birth rates [13][16]. Group 5: Shareholder Returns - Feihe has announced a minimum share buyback plan of 1 billion yuan and a dividend distribution of no less than 2 billion yuan, aiming to enhance shareholder value [14]. - However, despite these positive initiatives, the negative impact of the company's financial performance has overshadowed these efforts, leading to a significant drop in market capitalization [15].

Core Viewpoint - Feihe's performance has returned to a contraction phase, with expected revenue and net profit declines for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1][6]. Financial Performance - Feihe's revenue is projected to be between approximately 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan, down from 10.1 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The net profit is expected to range from about 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, compared to approximately 1.9 billion yuan in the previous year [1]. Reasons for Decline - The decline in performance is attributed to several factors, including the provision of fertility subsidies to consumers, reduced channel inventory for infant formula to maintain product freshness, decreased government subsidies, and impairment provisions for whole milk powder products [1][2]. Market Competition - The infant formula market has seen increased competition, with Nielsen IQ data indicating a 2.3% year-on-year growth in the infant formula sector from January to April 2025, while offline sales declined by 1.4% [3]. - Feihe maintains a leading market share, with the ultra-high-end segment accounting for 33.2% of the market, while foreign brands have gained advantages in this segment [4][5]. Future Outlook - Feihe remains optimistic about future performance, expecting low single-digit growth for the full year [6]. - The company plans to utilize no less than 1 billion yuan for share repurchases and maintain a stable dividend policy, with expected total dividends of no less than 2 billion yuan for 2025 [6]. Stock Performance - On July 7, Feihe's stock closed at 4.73 HKD per share, reflecting a decline of 17.02% [8].

飞鹤业绩又回到了收缩区间。 7月4日晚，该公司披露业绩预告。在2025年上半年，飞鹤营收介于约91亿元至93亿元之间，去年同期营 收为101亿元；净利润介于约10亿元至12亿元之间，上年同期净利润约19亿元。 当然，市占率第一的依旧是飞鹤。 眼下，飞鹤对于未来依旧是乐观的。其在公告中提到，预计全年将实现低个位数增长。 此外，飞鹤宣布拟动用不少于10亿元用于回购股份，并维持稳定分红政策，预期2025年分派股息总额不 少于20亿元。 作用也是明显的，这体现在飞鹤提到的收入下滑，也体现在相关产品流入闲鱼等二手渠道。甚至有经销 商向各大品牌投诉，生育补贴扰乱价格。 需要看到的是，飞鹤补贴的相关产品，为超高端的星飞帆卓睿。且补贴范围并不能覆盖哺育全周期。这 代表，从实质上，补贴有着促销作用。 而飞鹤依旧下滑，或许与竞争加剧有关。 尼尔森IQ数据显示，在2025年1-4月，婴配粉全渠道同比增长2.3%，其中，线下同比下滑1.4%。从市场 占比来看，超高端+市场为33.2%，超高端市场为31.2%，高端市场为24.2%，中高端市场为8.6%，中低 端市场为2.7%。 外资品牌则在超高端中占据一定优势。在2024年，爱他美、 ...

"奶粉一哥"飞鹤（6186.HK）中期业绩承压。 2025年上半年，飞鹤预计营收91亿元至93亿元，较上年同期的101亿元下降约10亿元。 净利润约10亿元至12亿元，较比去年同期的19.1亿元，降幅37.2%至47.6%之间。 市场对此反应激烈，飞鹤今日开盘大跌近15%，盘中最低跌至4.65港元、跌幅超过18%。 飞鹤将业绩下滑的主因，归结于4月初启动的生育补贴计划。 2024年，受益于"龙宝宝"效应带动的生育小高峰，飞鹤一度逆转连续两年的营收跌势，营收重返200亿 元上方。 该计划投入12亿元专项资金，以赠送奶粉的形式，对全国范围内符合条件的孕期家庭提供不少于1500元 的生育补贴，预计实施周期约为一年。 孕期满26周以上的孕妇，在完成审核后，可分多次申领一罐孕妇奶粉以及5罐高端奶粉"星飞帆卓睿"。 6月，飞鹤进一步推出"鹤礼新客2.0"活动，将补贴范围扩展至宝宝月龄12个月以内、且未购买过飞鹤婴 幼儿配方奶粉的家庭。 由于补贴产品仅能由厂家直邮消费者，相关政策客观上削弱了传统销售渠道的业绩贡献。 此外部分补贴产品未达终端消费，而经由二手平台流入市场，进一步冲击价格体系。 飞鹤表示为了保障终端货架产品的新 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Feihe's stock price plummeted significantly following a profit warning, indicating severe challenges in the high-end infant formula market due to various factors including demographic changes and increased competition [2][3][6] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Feihe expects revenue between 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 8% to 10% [3] - The projected net profit for the same period is between 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, a staggering drop of 37% to 47% compared to the previous year [3][6] - In 2024, Feihe's revenue is anticipated to be 20.75 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, while net profit is expected to reach 3.65 billion yuan, an 11% increase [6] Market Challenges - The high-end infant formula market is facing multiple pressures, including a declining birth rate and changing consumer preferences, leading to a contraction in market size [7][8] - In 2023, China's birth rate fell to 6.5‰, with the infant formula market shrinking by 4% [7] - Although a slight recovery in birth rates is expected in 2024, the impact on the industry remains limited [7] Competitive Landscape - Feihe's pricing strategy is misaligned with consumer preferences, as the most popular price range for infant formula is 200-299 yuan, while Feihe's main products are priced at 350-450 yuan [8] - Competitors like Junlebao and Yili are gaining market share by offering products in more accessible price ranges, further squeezing Feihe's high-end positioning [8] Inventory and Channel Issues - Feihe has reduced channel inventory to maintain product freshness, which has contributed to revenue declines [10] - The company faces significant inventory pressure, leading to price discrepancies between online and offline sales channels [10] - A shift towards online purchasing among younger parents is necessitating a transformation in Feihe's distribution strategy [10] Strategic Initiatives - In response to the challenges, Feihe has announced a 1 billion yuan share buyback plan and committed to a minimum dividend of 2 billion yuan in 2025 to bolster market confidence [6] - The company is also diversifying its product offerings beyond infant formula, targeting areas such as maternal and child health, but infant formula remains its primary revenue source [10]

7月4日，大成基金发布《关于公司固有资金、高级管理人员及拟任基金经理共同认购大成洞察优势混合型证券投资基金的公告》。公告显示，基于对中国 资本市场高质量发展和公司投资管理能力的信心，大成基金及其高级管理人员、拟任基金经理将共同出资不低于1000万元，认购大成洞察优势混合型证券 投资基金，并承诺至少持有1年，最终认购申请确认金额以基金注册登记机构计算并确认的结果为准。 【导读】大成基金及其高级管理人员、拟任基金经理将共同出资不低于1000万元自购旗下基金 又一家基金公司宣布自购。 7月4日，大成基金宣布自购旗下基金产品。相关公告显示，大成基金及其高级管理人员、拟任基金经理将共同出资不低于1000万元，认购大成洞察优势混 合型基金，并承诺至少持有1年。 就在6月初，大成基金宣布，拟运用固有资金2000万元，认购旗下浮动费率基金产品大成至臻回报混合型基金。 大成基金宣布自购旗下基金 公募基金积极自购 数据显示，截至7月3日，年内110家基金公司净申购旗下基金产品（剔除货币基金）合计达41.25亿元。 与往年不同的是，新型浮动管理费率基金成为今年基金发行市场的一大亮点，多家公募基金公司运用固有资金积极自购。 例如，7 ...

就在6月初，大成基金宣布， 拟运用固有资金2000万元 ，认购旗下浮动费率基金产品 大成至臻回报混合型基金 。 大成基金宣布自购旗下基金 7月4日，大成基金发布《关于公司固有资金、高级管理人员及拟任基金经理共同认购大成洞察优势混合型证券投资基金的公告》。公告显 示，基于对中国资本市场高质量发展和公司投资管理能力的信心，大成基金及其高级管理人员、拟任基金经理将共同出资不低于1000万 元，认购 大成洞察优势混合 型证券投资基金，并承诺至少持有1年，最终认购申请确认金额以基金注册登记机构计算并确认的结果为准。 公开信息显示， 大成洞察优势混合基金即将于7月7日开售，拟任基金经理为大成基金股票投资部副总监李博。 Wind数据显示，他的代表 作大成精选增值连续10年跑赢沪深300 指数。 截至7月3日，近三年单位净值增长17.77%，位列同类产品前5%。 这是大成基金年内第二次官宣自购。6月7日，大成基金发布公告称，拟运用固有资金2000万元认购大成至臻回报混合型基金。 【导读】大成基金及其高级管理人员、拟任基金经理将共同出资不低于1000万元自购旗下基金 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 又一家基金公司宣布自购。 7月4日， ...

其中，东方红核心价值混合A由东方红资管"老将"周云掌舵，Wind数据显示，周云管理的东方红京东大数据A和东方红新动力A任职回报率分别为196.86%和 178.04%。值得注意的是，此前东方红资管以自有资金1000万元认购该基金，并承诺锁定三年，这一举措向市场传递出强烈信心。从销售节奏看，该基金仅 用9个交易日便完成募集，创下浮动费率基金最快募集纪录。 易方达成长进取混合A则以4.73万户的认购户数成为首批浮动费率产品中触达最广泛投资者的"人气王"，户均认购金额仅3.6万元，基金经理刘健维个人认购 超百万份，其管理的易方达科讯混合基金过去五年累计收益率达20.49%。 平安价值优享混合A凭借15034户认购户数紧随其后，该产品由何杰管理，记者注意到，何杰管理的平安价值远见混合基金今年以来收益率达10.84%，显著 跑赢基准。产品设计上，该基金采用"持有期+业绩报酬"双阶梯收费模式，当持有期满一年且年化收益超6%时，管理费率阶梯式提升，这种设计既鼓励长期 持有，又强化了管理人与投资者的利益绑定。 尾部产品遇冷：博时卓睿成长规模不足3亿 近日，多家公募基金相继发布公告称，旗下新型浮动费率基金正式成立。据统计，截至 ...

Core Insights - The first batch of floating rate funds has been established, with a total scale of 12.6 billion yuan and an average fund size of 969 million yuan, indicating strong investor participation [1][2] - The floating rate fund mechanism links management fees directly to performance, marking a significant shift in the public fund fee structure [4][5] - The rapid fundraising of these funds is attributed to policy benefits, market timing, and product innovation, suggesting a new phase for the public fund industry focused on performance-driven strategies [3][5] Fund Establishment - As of June 21, 13 floating rate funds have been established, with the top three funds being Dongfanghong Core Value Mixed A, Yifangda Growth Progress Mixed A, and Ping An Value Enjoyment Mixed A, collectively accounting for nearly 40% of the total scale [2] - The average number of subscriptions per fund is approximately 11,500, with the highest being 47,301 for Yifangda Growth Progress Mixed A [2] Fee Structure - The floating rate mechanism replaces the traditional fixed management fee model, with fees based on holding period and annualized returns [4] - This structure reduces opportunity costs for investors, as management fees decrease when fund performance is below expectations, while higher fees correspond to better performance, aligning interests between investors and managers [4] Industry Impact - The floating rate mechanism presents both opportunities and challenges for fund managers, compelling them to enhance their research and investment capabilities [5] - The emergence of floating rate funds is expected to accelerate the transition of the public fund industry from a scale-driven model to a performance-driven one [5]