Market Overview - A-shares showed a strong overall performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.86% to 3403.95 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.64% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears balanced in the short term, with over 2300 stocks rising and more than 2800 stocks falling [1] Tariff Negotiations - The recent US-China tariff negotiations exceeded expectations, with significant tariff reductions announced, including the cancellation of a 91% retaliatory tariff and a temporary exemption of 24% of the equal tariffs within 90 days [1][2] - Despite the positive news, A-shares did not experience significant gains, possibly due to the already repaired market conditions and macroeconomic status [1][3] Economic Conditions - China's economy is currently in a weak recovery phase, necessitating a cautious approach to investment direction [3][4] - The high tariffs previously imposed acted like a "trade ban," and while the recent tariff reductions are a positive step, they do not signify the end of the trade war [3] Sector Performance - The securities sector led the A-share market, with the Securities ETF rising by 3.48% and trading volume exceeding 3.8 billion yuan [9][11] - In Q1 2025, 42 listed securities firms reported a total revenue of 125.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, and a net profit of 52.18 billion yuan, up 83.48% [11] - The financial technology sector is expected to benefit from recent policies aimed at stabilizing the market and encouraging long-term investments [13] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors such as midstream manufacturing, home appliances, robotics, and AI, which have shown promising performance [6][7] - The current valuation of the securities sector presents an opportunity for investors to capitalize on potential earnings recovery [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing proactive adjustments while awaiting operational improvements. The white liquor industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with significant pressure on mid-range and premium products. The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies and strengthening its management [7][8] - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 28.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.67 billion yuan, down 33.37% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.36 billion yuan, a decline of 52.17% year-on-year [7][8] - The company plans to focus on the Jiangsu and surrounding markets to build a solid foundation for growth, as revenue from both domestic and external markets declined [7][8] - The company is expected to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a projected total cash dividend of at least 7 billion yuan for 2024, corresponding to a dynamic dividend yield of over 6.5% [7][8] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to decline from 28.76 billion yuan in 2024 to 24.47 billion yuan in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decrease from 6.67 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.46 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight recovery in 2026 and 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop from 4.43 yuan in 2024 to 3.62 yuan in 2025, with a gradual increase thereafter [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 18.93 for 2025, 18.27 for 2026, and 17.52 for 2027, indicating a potential for value recovery in the coming years [1][8]

Core Viewpoint - In May, the supply of new residential properties in 28 key cities experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 39%, indicating increasing constraints on supply [2][12]. Supply Overview - The overall supply volume in May was 5.67 million square meters, down 36% month-on-month and 39% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 24% for the first five months [2][12]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu saw substantial supply reductions, with Shanghai and Shenzhen experiencing near stagnation in new supply [3][12]. City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities showed a steady decline, with a month-on-month drop exceeding 40%. Beijing's supply remained stable compared to last year, while Shanghai and Shenzhen's supply fell below 200,000 square meters [3][6]. - Second-tier cities experienced a slight decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 28% and a year-on-year decrease of 37%. Cities like Ningbo and Kunming saw temporary increases in supply [3][12]. - Third and fourth-tier cities faced a complete contraction in supply, with some cities reporting zero new supply, indicating a "passive clearance" phase in the market [3][12]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is primarily focused on improvement needs, with 37% for basic needs, 47% for improvement, and 16% for high-end properties [6][9]. - More than half of the cities have their main supply concentrated in urban areas, with a significant focus on improvement products [6][9]. Market Outlook - The expectation for the market is a "quality improvement" in supply, which may support a slight increase in transaction volumes in May, with a likely month-on-month increase and year-on-year stability [12][13]. - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 31%, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 8 percentage points but stable compared to last year [12][13].

Group 1 - The report highlights strong economic growth in the first quarter, with GDP growth reaching 5.4%, surpassing the previous consensus expectation of 5.2% [2] - Investment in manufacturing and infrastructure remains steady, while real estate investment showed signs of slowing down in March, although property sales continue to recover [2][3] - Consumer spending has improved significantly, particularly in March, with online retail showing high growth, indicating the effectiveness of policies promoting consumption [2] Group 2 - The report indicates that the current domestic inventory cycle is in a weak replenishment phase, with leading indicators suggesting steady recovery in consumer spending and business expectations [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to suppress commercial activities and asset price expectations, leading to increased volatility in risk assets [2] - The report suggests that Chinese assets have relative advantages, with A-shares entering an observation period, and emphasizes the importance of domestic policy strength and timing for sustaining recovery momentum [2] Group 3 - The report notes that the weak dollar trend is likely to continue, with rising risks of a slowdown in the US economy, which may lead to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The report emphasizes that low valuations and stable earnings will dominate market styles before the implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, with a focus on defensive assets in the short term [2] - The report anticipates that after the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is resolved, profit factors may regain dominance in the market, shifting focus back to growth-oriented sectors [2]

2025年03月16日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 美国２月 CPI 不及预期、国内政府债券支撑社融增长 2025 年 3 月 10 日-2025 年 3 月 16 日周报 美国2月 CPI 不及预期,美联储3月会议大概率维持利率不变 3 月 12 日,美国劳工部发布数据显示,2025年 2 月美国 CPI 同比为+2.8%,低于 市场预期的+2.9%,录得去年 11月以来新低;CPI 环比+0.2%,低于预期的+0.3%,录 得去年 10月以来新低。剔除掉食品和能源后,2025年 2 月美国核心 CPI 同比为+3.1%, 低于预期的+3.2%,录得 2021 年 4 月以来新低;核心 CPI 环比+0.2%,低于预期的 +0.3%，录得去年 12 月以来新低。 美国２月通胀总体的不及预期、特别是核心通胀的不及预期，一定程度上弱化了市 场对特朗普关税政策之下美国通胀反弹的担忧,截止３月14日,美国５年期和10年期 营亏平衡通胀利率分别为 2.48%和 2.30%,总体上均恢复至年初水平,结束了年初以 来,特别是２月市场对美国的通胀预期逐渐上行的趋势。市场在本周对美国通胀预期的 回调,叠加此前公布的美国 ...