Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing significant turmoil, with housing prices remaining stagnant or declining, indicating a prolonged downturn in the industry [1][7]. - There are contrasting views on the future trajectory of housing prices, with some hoping for a rebound similar to the U.S. market, while others fear a prolonged decline akin to Japan's experience [3][4][15]. Market Dynamics - The current decline in housing prices is fundamentally different from previous market fluctuations, suggesting a deeper structural issue rather than a temporary cycle [11]. - Many cities are witnessing a drop in housing prices, marking a potential turning point in the market [7]. - The high debt levels among residents and declining birth rates are internal factors that may further weaken market demand [11][15]. Historical Comparisons - The situation in China is compared to Japan's real estate bubble in the 1990s, where many households were trapped by high mortgages after a market crash [13][15]. - Unlike Japan, the U.S. market saw a quicker recovery post-financial crisis, suggesting that China may have a better chance of avoiding a severe downturn due to its centralized government control [16][17]. Government Policies - The Chinese government is implementing a dual-track system of commodity and affordable housing to alleviate market pressure and support living standards [20]. - The gradual approach to property tax reform in China aims to mitigate risks without triggering a systemic collapse, contrasting with Japan's abrupt tax increases during its market peak [22]. Regional Disparities - The real estate market in China is expected to exhibit significant regional differences, with first-tier cities and some strong second-tier cities likely to recover faster than weaker regions facing severe downward pressure [29][30]. - The potential for "ghost towns" in less attractive cities is a concern, with some areas already experiencing extremely low housing prices [30]. Future Outlook - The duration of the current market adjustment remains uncertain, with scenarios ranging from a two to three-year decline similar to the U.S. to a prolonged fifteen-year downturn like Japan's [30][32]. - The era of easy profits from real estate investments is over, necessitating a shift in strategies for investors and homebuyers alike [32].

Policy Level - Continuous policy support has been observed since 2023, with multiple interest rate cuts and adjustments in mortgage rates, as well as the cancellation of purchase restrictions in various regions, indicating the government's commitment to stabilize the real estate market [1] - The government plans to build 2 million units of affordable housing over the next five years, further solidifying support for the real estate sector [1] Precision of Policies - Policies are not only focused on liquidity support for real estate companies but also on optimizing home purchase policies, such as lowering down payment ratios and increasing housing fund loan limits to stimulate demand [2] Market Supply and Demand - Demand remains supported by urbanization, with a projected urbanization rate of 66.16% in 2024, leaving room for over 200 million people to move to cities in the next decade, driving housing demand [3] - The inventory turnover period in first-tier cities is shortening, with a projected 30% increase in second-hand housing transactions in 2025, indicating a recovery in the market [3] Supply Side Improvement - By Q4 2024, national commercial housing sales area is expected to rise by 12% quarter-on-quarter, with first-tier city prices stabilizing [4] - The land auction premium rate is anticipated to rebound to 15% in 2025, reflecting improved developer confidence in the market [4] Industry Development - The industry is accelerating its transformation from high-leverage, high-turnover models to "light asset operations" and service-oriented real estate companies, diversifying into property management and long-term rentals [5] - Competition is intensifying in terms of housing quality, with increasing consumer demand for green buildings and smart communities [6] Market Outlook for Home Buyers - For first-time homebuyers, the stabilization of the market reduces the risk of significant price fluctuations, making it a suitable time to purchase homes, especially with supportive policies lowering costs [8] - However, caution is advised in lower-tier cities where price pressures and inventory issues may persist [9] Investment Considerations - The era of guaranteed profits in real estate investment is over, with potential declines in investment returns and increased risks, necessitating a more cautious approach [10] - Investors should closely monitor policy changes and market dynamics to identify valuable investment opportunities in emerging areas and prime locations [11]

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 根据《中华人民共和国房产税暂行条例》（国发〔1986〕90号）和《财政部 国家税务总局关于营改增后契税 房产税 土地增值 税 个人所得税计税依据问题的通知》（财税〔2016〕43号）规定： 房产出租的，以不含增值税的租金收入为房产税的计税依据，按照 12% 的税率计算缴纳房产税。 同时，根据《财政部 税务总局 住房城乡建设部关于完善住房租赁有关税收政策的公告》（财政部 税务总局 住房城乡建设部公 告2021年第24号）规定： 对企事业单位、社会团体以及其他组织向个人、专业化规模化住房租赁企业出租住房的，减按 4% 的税率征收房产税。 房产税 和 城镇土地使用税 常 见 问 答 企业出租房产，如何计算缴纳房产税？企业出租房产，如何计算缴纳房产税？ 1 如企业属于增值税小规模纳税人、小型微利企业，则可以减半征收房产税。 根据《中华人民共和国房产税暂行条例》（国发〔1986〕90号）规定： 房产税的税率，依照 房产余值 计算缴纳的，税率为1.2%；依照 房产租金收入 计算缴纳的，税率为12%。 根据《财政部 税务总局关于进一步支持小微企业和个体工商户发展有关税费政策的公告》（财政部 税务总 ...

从2022年开始，房地产市场就进入到长期调整的趋势之中。先是郑州、石家庄、涿州等二三线城市。在进入到2023年之后，像上海、深圳等一线城市也加入 到调整的趋势中。据最新数据显示：2024年全国商品房销售面积同比下降11.3%，销售额同比下降15.7%。2024年全国300个城市新建商品住宅价格指数同比 下降3.2%，二手住宅价格指数同比下降5.1%。 实际上，现在房地产市场的长期调整，对于那些拥有2套及以上房产的家庭来说，影响还是比较大的。前些年，央行公布数据显示，国内有41.5%的家庭拥 有二套及以上房产，如果再算上近些年新增的家庭，实际占比可能达到45%。而这些家庭将会在未来几年内面临"5大挑战"： 挑战一：房子市值在不断的缩水 之前很多人都认为，一线城市的房价"只涨不跌"，下跌的主要还是那些三四线城市。但结果不仅是像涿州、廊坊、燕郊等环京三四线城市房价跌去50%以 上。就连上海、深圳等一线城市的房价也从最高时的9万多/米，跌至现在的6万多每平米，跌幅也超过了30%。 而现如今，像上海、深圳等一线城市的房价与收入比40，就是当地居民不吃不喝40年才能买得起房子。而二线城市的房价与收入比在20-25，也远高 ...

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 个人出租住房主要涉及增值税、房产税、城镇土地使用税、印花税、个人所得税、城市维 护建设税、教育费附加和地方教育附加。具体规定为： （一）增值税： 个人出租住房， 应按照5%的征收率减按1.5%计算增值税应纳税额 。 其他个人采取一次 性收取租金形式出租不动产取得的租金收入，可在对应的租赁期内平均分摊，分摊后的月租金 收入未超过10万元的， 开具普通发票免征增值税。 （二）附加税费： 城市维护建设税、教育费附加及地方教育附加，分别按照实际缴纳的增值税税额的7%、 3%、2%计征。 优惠政策：自2022年1月1日至2027年12月31日，对个人出租房屋减半征收城市维护建设 税、教育费附加、地方教育附加。 （三）个人所得税： 对个人按市场价格出租的居民住房取得的所得， 自2001年1月1日起暂减按10%的税率征 收个人所得税 。 财产租赁所得 个人所得税前 可以扣除的次序为： 2.向出租方支付的租金。 3.由纳税人负担的租赁财产 实际开支的修缮费用。 4.税法规定的费用扣除标准。 （四）印花税 ：对个人出租、承租住房签订的租赁合同， 免征印花税。 （五）城镇土地使用税 ：对个人出租住房， ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has experienced a significant downturn since 2021, with prices in lower-tier cities halving and first-tier cities returning to 2016 levels, despite government efforts to stabilize the market through various policies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The initial surge in housing prices led to a speculative buying frenzy, with many individuals borrowing to purchase properties, resulting in skyrocketing prices even in remote areas [1]. - By 2021, the market began to decline, with second and third-tier cities seeing price drops of around 50%, and first-tier cities reverting to previous price levels [1]. - The government has implemented measures such as lowering down payment ratios, reducing loan interest rates, and offering tax incentives to stimulate market recovery [1]. Group 2: Financial Health of Real Estate Companies - Many real estate companies are facing severe financial difficulties and high debt pressures, leading to a growing sense of caution among potential buyers [3]. - The industry is expected to undergo a significant shakeout, with financially strained companies likely to exit the market, while larger firms with stable finances may continue to thrive [5]. Group 3: Taxation and Market Pressure - The introduction of property taxes and landlord taxes in some cities poses a significant burden on homeowners, particularly those with multiple properties, as these taxes can reach up to 20% [6]. - The rental market is under increasing pressure, making it nearly impossible for most homeowners outside major cities to sustain their properties through rental income [6]. Group 4: Wealth Distribution and Policy Implications - The concentration of wealth in real estate has led to high vacancy rates among affluent families, while a significant portion of the population struggles to afford housing [10]. - Government policies aimed at promoting common prosperity and reducing wealth inequality include inheritance taxes on property sales, which could significantly impact high-net-worth families [11]. - These measures are intended to facilitate a more equitable distribution of wealth, although they may cause short-term challenges in the market [11].

受房产税上调和唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战影响，英国房地产市场备受关注的指标跌至近两年来的最低水 平。皇家特许测量师学会表示，其4月份的成交量指数跌至-31，这意味着报告成交量下降的房地产经纪 人数量远远超过报告成交量增长的经纪人数量。该指数上一次走低是在2023年8月。 ...

2025下半年房价走向-石家庄 26万个房产证是一个大数，其中长安区就有12万个。而且这些还不是全部，有一些小区还没有开始办理，不知道整体下来能够 扩张到多少。但是我很确定，如果新下了26万个房产证，那最直接的影响就是未来市场上二手房又多了不少。毕竟石家庄一共 才有170万个证。这个数据我不是很确定，真的很难查到。 这就等于说，市场上要增加15%到20%的可供出售的二手房。当然也不是每一个人拿到房产证都会出售，但是按照比例考虑， 原来170万个房产证，挂在网上出售的大约有五万多套，现在又增加了15%到20%，也就是说，大概要增加到六万套左右。 今年其实就没有怎么关注房价，因为房价很平稳，平稳的下降。降幅整体来说是比去年看上去要慢，去年一年降了差不多有两 千，石家庄二环内的某一个小区，去年从单价一万降到了单价八千，其实感觉比这个降幅还要大一点点。今年还是在持续的 降，目前的情况看，比去年年底应该降了五百。降的不算快，但是也挺显著的。成交量持续的走低，新房也都还在卖力的宣 传。 本来房价就让它慢慢掉就行，但是这几天出了一个大事，就是石家庄下放了26万个房产证。其实就是以前那些手续不全的，甚 至开发商已经倒闭的，甚 ...

有人说中国的房产不具有保值增值性！理由是:房产的增值其实是地皮的增值，地皮上的水泥钢筋等永 远只会贬值，若干年后(50－120年)房子成为危房，国家把地皮收回(中国房产土地使用权多为70年)，房 子价值彻底归0，这与很多国外房产不同(国外房产地皮大多是永久使用的)，求反驳。 小魔仙女王大人 中国土地使用权70年，到期免费续签。最大问题是房屋到达使用年限后，如何翻盖，这个还没有配套政 策。国外没有使用权，但有1%-3%的房产税，用不了70年，房屋价值就清零了。所以说西方的永久产权 实质是永久纳税义务，并且西方国家还有40%遗产税。就投资而言，中国地产更具投资价值。 sm1314 国外要交房产税，等于年年交地租，别太相信房产保值了，再不降房价，人都没了，你卖谁去。 小镇 地皮看稀缺性，大高层区域将来拆迁重建是恶梦。里面还居住着20%的社会底层人士，还有一堆等着保 值增值的。地皮没多少，拆除价值不够拆迁成本。别说几十年后，现在我市中心快塌的红砖楼已经没有 开发商有兴趣了。 newbison 70年到了也不一定给你拆迁。上海还有很多这样的房子，50年代的工人新村，日据时期修的老房子。这 些房子的地理位置都还不错，但是 ...