【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 12月12日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4260元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4220元/ 吨，目前基差在40元/吨，走强11元/吨，基差处于中性水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 发布日期：2025年12月12日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.46个百分点至79.43%，PVC开工 率继续小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率略有下降，下游制品订单不佳。印度将 关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC 以价换量，只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨后出口签单回落，上周出口签单基 本稳定。本周社会库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在 调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一 步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。 新增产能上， ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月04日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.39个百分点至80.22%，PVC开工 率继续增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率基本稳定。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止， 对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，只是中国台 湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨，上周出口签单环比回落。上周社会库存小幅增加，目前 仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同 比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面 积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC 开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀 望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会 议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作，给予大宗商品一定提振。但山东恒 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月26日 【行情分析】 PVC2601合约减仓震荡运行，最低价4466元/吨，最高价4501元/吨，最终收盘于4489元/吨， 在20日均线下方，跌幅0.42%，持仓量减少33859手至1227649手。 基差方面： 11月26日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4445元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4489元/ 吨，目前基差在-44元/吨，走弱13元/吨，基差处于中性偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度 反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍 下跌30-60美元/吨。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月25日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度 反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍 偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比 降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积 环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率 同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30 万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政策落地，老装置也大多通过技改 升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。只是 印度反倾销税即将执行，贸易商开始观望，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。本周社会库存小 幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开 工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商 品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍 为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/ 年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政策落地，老装 置也大多通过技改升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend. Factors such as the decrease in PVC and downstream开工率, high inventory, upcoming implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, and the downturn in the real estate market contribute to this situation [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC开工率 has decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has slightly declined. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about exports, but the upcoming anti - dumping duties make traders cautious. The export orders increased last week. The social inventory decreased slightly but remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and new production capacities are in operation. With the end of maintenance of some enterprises, high futures warehouse receipts, and other factors, PVC is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased by 1.46% to 4520 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest by 107,079 lots to 1,462,620 lots [2]. - On November 18, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4485 yuan/ton. The V2601 contract closed at 4608 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 35 yuan/ton, strengthening by 21 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang are under maintenance. The PVC开工率 decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%. New production capacities like Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) are in production at different loads [4]. - On the demand side, from January to October 2025, real estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased significantly year - on - year. The national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, down 14.7% year - on - year. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year - on - year. As of November 16, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% week - on - week but was still at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 13, the PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory is still high [6].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic downturn in China is primarily driven by the adjustment in the real estate sector, which has significant implications for overall economic performance. Stabilizing the real estate market and activating consumer demand are essential for economic recovery [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Real Estate - Real estate contributes up to 60% of China's GDP, and its decline directly affects overall economic performance [3][8]. - A rough estimate indicates that for every 100 yuan decrease in property value, household consumption decreases by 14 yuan, leading to a significant reduction in GDP [3][4]. - The real estate sector's investment in 2023 has dropped by 10% year-on-year, dragging down GDP by 1.5 percentage points, with related industries contributing to a total impact of 25% on GDP [8]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - A proposed "dual pillar policy" includes issuing 3,000 yuan unconditional consumption vouchers totaling 4 trillion yuan, equivalent to 3% of GDP, to stimulate consumer spending [8]. - Establishing a national real estate restructuring trust company funded by the central government is recommended to manage industry risks and prevent crisis escalation [8]. - Historical evidence from 2020 shows that consumption vouchers effectively revitalized the economy post-lockdown, suggesting a similar approach could yield positive results on a national scale [8]. Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite current challenges, China's supply side remains robust, with growth in sectors like telecommunications, integrated circuits, and online sales [6]. - The economy's underlying strengths include a large market of 1.4 billion people, a complete industrial system, and ongoing technological investments, providing a solid foundation for recovery [11]. - The economic slowdown is viewed as a temporary issue rather than a chronic problem, with the potential for rapid recovery if key variables are stabilized and demand is activated [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PVC will experience volatile consolidation in the near term. Although the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC boosts market confidence and social inventory decreases slightly, factors such as the upcoming implementation of India's anti - dumping tax, high futures warehouse receipts, and weak cost support due to the end of maintenance by some production enterprises will still put pressure on PVC [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC production start - up rate decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC start - up rate has started to decline slightly and is still at a low level. India terminated its BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India, but the upcoming implementation of anti - dumping tax has led traders to adopt a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a week - on - week decline in export orders last week. Social inventory decreased slightly this week but remains high, and inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and it will take time for improvement [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upwards, with a minimum price of 4,580 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,635 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,608 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.72%. The position volume decreased by 44,024 lots to 1,348,369 lots [2]. - Basis: On November 14, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,535 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,608 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 73 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang entered maintenance, causing the PVC production start - up rate to decrease by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51% week - on - week. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production line that started mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year production line expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year production line that was put into operation in early September and is currently approaching full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang's and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year production lines operating at low loads after trial runs [4]. - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. As of the week of November 9, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to decline by 32.15% week - on - week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Social inventory decreased slightly but remains high [6].

Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in urban areas decreased, reaching the largest decline since June 2020 [1] - Investment returns are declining, leading market participants to adopt more cautious investment decisions [1] - The real estate industry downturn is significantly dragging down investment growth [1] - Investment growth momentum is insufficient in some industries, impacting overall investment growth [1] Government Focus - Investment in areas such as education, healthcare, housing, and basic public services needs to be strengthened [1] Economic Environment - The external environment is complex and severe, and domestic market competition is fierce [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic downturn in China is primarily driven by the decline in the real estate sector, which has significant ripple effects on consumer confidence and spending [4][8][73]. Group 1: Real Estate Impact - The decline in real estate is likened to "muscle cramps" rather than a "heart attack," indicating that while it is serious, it is not fatal [5][68]. - Real estate has historically contributed up to 60% to GDP growth, and its current downturn is a major factor in the weak economic performance and rising savings rates [14][18]. - A rough estimate suggests that approximately 6% of GDP has shifted from consumption to savings over the past four years due to declining consumer confidence linked to falling property prices [18][98]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Solutions - Both economists agree on the need to stimulate demand, with proposals including large-scale, unconditional consumer vouchers to boost spending [8][106]. - A "dual pillar" approach is suggested, focusing on stabilizing the real estate market while simultaneously stimulating consumer demand [9][105]. - The suggestion includes establishing a national real estate restructuring trust funded by the central government to manage industry risks and prevent further economic drag [109]. Group 3: Structural Issues and Long-term Strategy - While structural issues like high leverage and low consumption exist, they are not the immediate causes of the current economic slowdown [80][111]. - The focus should be on increasing total consumption and investment rather than merely adjusting their proportions in GDP [102][104]. - The current economic strategy aims to ensure a "soft landing" for real estate and to stimulate new growth drivers while managing systemic risks [70][110].