Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that PVC will experience weak and volatile trends in the near term due to factors such as a weakening cost - end, high social inventory, upcoming completion of equipment maintenance at companies like Inner Mongolia Junzheng, average spot trading, and high - level futures warehouse receipts [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [行情分析] - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. After the National Day holiday, downstream PVC recovery was significant, but the downstream operating rate is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on imported PVC from mainland China by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening China's PVC export expectations in the fourth quarter. However, export orders have not weakened significantly after the recent decline in export prices [1]. - As of the week of October 16, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. Although inventory has slightly decreased, it remains high [1][7]. - From January to August 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to decline and is near the lowest level in recent years, indicating that real estate improvement requires time [1][6]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities have been put into operation, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year capacity in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year capacity expected to be stably produced by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year capacity in early September, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year capacities operating at low loads after trial production [1][5]. - Six departments have jointly issued a work plan for stable growth in the building materials industry, but no actual policies have been implemented in the PVC industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old - fashioned devices are macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1]. [期现行情] - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 4,675 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,729 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,688 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 0.45% increase and a decrease in open interest by 56,022 lots to 1,212,927 lots [2]. - On October 17, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,630 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,694 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 58 yuan/ton, strengthening by 36 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3][4]. [基本面跟踪] - Supply side: Companies such as Shandong Xinfeng, Lutai Chemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng have entered equipment maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69%, but it remains at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities have been put into operation as mentioned above [5]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the sales volume was 550.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. New construction area decreased by 19.5% year - on - year, and completion area decreased by 17.0% year - on - year. As of the week of October 12, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.44% week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [6]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 16, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. Although inventory has slightly decreased, it remains high [7].

Core Insights - The main challenges for China's economic growth have shifted to two key points, with some previous pressures easing [1][3][9] Group 1: Economic Environment Changes - The private economy has shown significant improvement since 2025, with market confidence gradually recovering [3] - Local government debt pressure has been alleviated due to national fiscal support in the second half of 2024, demonstrating effective debt risk control [3] - However, the pressures from real estate adjustments and weak consumption have intensified, becoming the most prominent drag on current economic growth [3][9] Group 2: Real Estate Market - Stabilizing the real estate market has been a crucial economic goal since early 2025, but data indicates a continuous decline in second-hand housing prices across various city tiers [5] - First-tier cities have also experienced a decline in housing prices since April, with a notable acceleration in price drops observed after May [5] - The adjustment pressure in the real estate sector significantly impacts economic growth, as its support for widespread employment is irreplaceable by new productivity [5] Group 3: Consumer Market - Despite government policies promoting trade-in for home appliances, automobiles, and electronics, consumer spending remains relatively weak [6] - Consumer sentiment can be gauged from price data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in the first half of 2025, indicating deflation [7] - The latest August price data reflects an expanded year-on-year decline of 0.4%, suggesting a deepening downward trend [7] Group 4: Future Economic Growth - For a large economy like China, relying on export-driven growth is increasingly challenging, especially when transitioning from a middle-income to a high-income economy, which typically depends on domestic consumption [9] - While China has excelled in the real economy and manufacturing investments, continued reliance on rapid manufacturing growth faces difficulties due to rising global trade protectionism and shrinking global trade [9] - Overall, addressing the persistent pressures from real estate adjustments and weak consumption is essential for achieving stable and sustainable economic growth [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC industry has significant fundamental pressure, with a low basis. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate downward, and the recommended strategy is to sell short at high prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price has slightly increased in some regions. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has slightly increased but is still low compared to previous years, and procurement is cautious [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has raised its September quotation by $10 - 30 per ton. Recent export orders are average. On August 14, India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with an increase of about $50 per ton for the Chinese mainland. The export outlook for Chinese PVC in the second half of the year is weakening [1]. - Social inventory has continued to increase and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. From January to July 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate increased last week and remains high. New production capacities are coming on stream, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production line in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year production line expected to be in stable production in September after trial production in August, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year and Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year production lines planned for trial runs in September [1]. - The support from calcium carbide prices is still weak, and PVC faces significant pressure before the demand is substantially improved. There are no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological innovation. The macro - policy of anti - involution and elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry will affect the subsequent market [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,838 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,888 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.80%. The position volume decreased by 23,861 lots to 1,242,667 lots [2]. Basis - On September 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4,680 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,857 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 208 yuan/ton, weakening by 31 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, maintenance devices such as Gansu Yinguang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics have resumed production. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.11 percentage points to 77.13% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities are coming on stream as mentioned above [5]. - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to July 2025, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. The commercial housing sales area was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; the residential sales area decreased by 4.1%. The commercial housing sales volume was 495.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 6.2%. The new construction area of houses was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%; the new construction area of residential houses was 258.81 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The completion area of houses was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%; the completion area of residential houses was 180.67 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. The overall improvement of the real estate market still takes time [6]. - As of the week of September 7, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 30.28% week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [6]. - As of the week of September 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons, an increase of 3.73% compared to the same period last year. Social inventory has continued to increase and remains high [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting on rallies for PVC [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to decline with oscillations due to high supply, weak demand, high inventory, and a lack of substantial policy support. The current fundamentals of the PVC industry face significant pressure, and the主力 contract has switched to the 01 contract with a low basis [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **期现行情** - The PVC2601 contract opened lower, increased positions, and oscillated. It reached a low of 4,869 yuan/ton, a high of 4,918 yuan/ton, and closed at 4,888 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 0.14% increase. The open interest increased by 6,574 lots to 1,206,310 lots [2]. **基差方面** - On September 2, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,680 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,888 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 198 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton. The basis is at a low level [3]. **基本面跟踪** - **Supply**: The operating rates of some plants such as Zhongtai Huatai and Ningbo Zhenyang decreased. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.59 percentage points to 76.02% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production in August, Tianjin Bohua's expected stable production in September after trial production in August, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year and Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year planned trial runs in September [1][4]. - **Demand**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to July 2025, national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. The sales area, new construction area, and completion area all had significant year - on - year declines. As of the week ending August 31, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 11.64% week - on - week but was still near the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending August 28, PVC social inventory increased by 5.10% week - on - week to 896,300 tons, 0.66% less than the same period last year. Social inventory continued to rise and remained at a high level [1][6].

Core Viewpoint - The home furnishing retail sector is facing significant challenges, highlighted by the recent detention of executives from multiple companies, including Liu Bing, the chairman of Fusenmei, amid declining performance in the industry [2][3][7]. Company Overview - Fusenmei operates as a major player in the home furnishing market, focusing on the operation of decoration and building materials retail spaces, providing comprehensive services to merchants, consumers, and partners [3][4]. - As of the end of 2024, Fusenmei's self-operated retail space exceeded 1.25 million square meters, with over 3,500 merchants [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Fusenmei reported revenue of 1.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 690 million yuan, down 14.39% [5]. - Despite the decline in revenue and profit, Fusenmei distributed a cash dividend of 6.80 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 509 million yuan, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [5]. Market Context - The home furnishing industry is experiencing a downturn due to a combination of real estate market adjustments and reduced consumer demand, leading to high inventory and low turnover rates [5][6]. - The overall performance of home furnishing companies has been poor, with many reporting significant losses, raising concerns about the sustainability of business for companies like Fusenmei [6][7]. Recent Events - The detention of Liu Bing was unexpected, and the company has stated that its operations remain stable, with the vice chairman temporarily taking over his responsibilities [2][3]. - The trend of executive detentions in the home furnishing sector raises alarms about the industry's stability, as seen with similar incidents involving leaders from other companies [7].

Economic Growth - The GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The growth rate of 5.3% was both expected and surprising, as many international institutions predicted lower than 5% [3] Consumption Contribution - Consumption contributed 52% to economic growth, while investment contributed 16.8% and foreign trade contributed 31.2% [4] - The increase in consumption is attributed to the implementation of consumption policies and specific action plans [4][6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% in the first half of the year, with a noted decline in real estate investment impacting overall growth [7][9] - The slowdown in investment growth is a result of structural adjustments, particularly in the real estate sector [10] Real Estate Market - The real estate sector remains in a downtrend, necessitating efforts to stabilize both investment and sales [11] - Short-term measures focus on risk prevention, particularly regarding liquidity issues for real estate developers [13] Macroeconomic Policy - There is a call for increased support from central fiscal policies for investment, consumption, and foreign trade in the second half of the year [14] - Attention is needed on price parameters like GDP deflator, CPI, and PPI, with adjustments to macro policies based on these trends [16]

以下文章来源于国民经略 ，作者凯风 国民经略 . 谁进谁退。 作者 | 凯风 来源 | 国民经略 （ID：guominjinglve） 省域经济，谁进谁退？ 时隔5年，我国进行了 第五次经济普查 ，由于增加"虚拟租金"，全国GDP大幅调增3 . 4 万亿。 与上一轮经济普查不同，当时14省遭遇"挤水分"，这一次全部调增，可谓"雨露均沾"。 与此同时，过去一年，外界大环境日趋复杂严峻，内部有效需求不足，房地产仍在深度 调整，加上新一轮科技革命和产业变革如火如荼， 省域经济出现明显分化。 考虑到五经普调增，加上各省经济面临不同的压力，区域经济版图再次重构。 在这里，读懂中国经济、城市和楼市 | | | | --- | --- | | K | 1 | | | | 2024初核 | 2023普查 | 2023初核 | 示在增量 | 普查调整 | 合计增量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 广东 | 141634 | 137905 | 135673 | 3728 | 2232 | 5961 | | 2 | 江苏 | 137008 | 13 ...

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