宏观经济深度研究 如何充分挖掘经济潜能？ ——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之一 今年中央经济工作会议在 " 新的认识和体会 " 部分，将挖掘经济潜能置于五个 " 必 须 " 的首位，并系统强调政策支持与改革创新协同推进，统筹激发活力与规范秩 序，推动投资于物与投资于人相互促进，同时通过提升内生能力增强应对外部 变化的韧性。这一部署立足经济转型的关键阶段，着眼于如何抬升中长期可持 续增长的上限。随着外部环境不确定性上升、国内供需结构持续优化、重点领 域风险处置稳步推进，经济潜能的释放正更多依托结构性修复与制度性增效。 沿着这一逻辑，可以从三个层面展开：潜能体现在哪里、潜能具有多大空间、 潜能如何转化为现实增长。总体来看，这一框架可以概括为三条同向发力的路 径。在需求侧，通过修复预期增强消费的确定性；在供给侧，通过效率提升把 服务业升级与技术扩散转化为生产率红利；在制度侧，通过统一规则、降低摩 擦、改善回报，引导资源配置持续流向有效产出。在此基础上，投资于人有助 于降低家庭部门的尾部风险并释放需求弹性，投资于物有助于推动创新由投入 走向扩散，全国统一大市场建设与规范竞争秩序则有助于提高回报的可预期性 并激发投资活力 ...

港股方面，美国CPI数据提振市场信心，美联储1月降息预期升温，海外流动性宽松预期重新恢复，港股作为离岸市场对利率高度敏感，有望重启升势，"抄 底"资金加速行动！港股互联网ETF（513770）近10日连续吸金13.3亿元，港股通创新药ETF（520880）连续9日获净申购，最新基金份额升至41.78亿份新 高！ 周五（12月19日）A股三大指数集体上涨，全市场近4500只个股收红，沪深两市成交额1.73万亿元，较昨日放量704亿元。 技术分析人士指出，上证指数日线3连阳，一举收复10日、20日均线，在3900点位置遇阻回落，下周能否突破上方的60日均线（大约3912点）成为重要关 口，一旦有效攻克，很可能意味着本轮调整结束，市场重新进入上涨趋势。 A股盘中集体冲高！发生了什么？分析人士表示，美国11月非农部门就业人数、美国11月CPI（消费者价格指数）等数据相继公布，日本央行宣布将目标利 率提高25个基点至0.75%，符合市场预期。随着一系列"靴子"落地，A股短期面临的外部不确定性消散，市场关注点开始转向A股自身内部。 盘面上，"反内卷"方向延续亮眼表现，化工ETF（516020）、有色ETF华宝（15987 ...

Group 1 - As of November 2025, the total scale of private equity funds in China reached 22.09 trillion yuan, with 19,314 fund managers managing 138,055 funds [1] - The private equity market is experiencing a divergence in strategies as firms prepare for the upcoming year, with some optimistic about a potential valuation recovery in the tech sector [1] - Deloitte forecasts a 94% increase in A-share IPO financing in 2025, with 114 companies expected to go public, raising a total of 1,296 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - Multiple banks have lowered their USD deposit rates following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, with rates for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year deposits dropping by 0.05 percentage points [2] - Public funds have actively participated in the A-share private placement market this year, with 39 institutions involved in 85 stocks, raising a total of 34.088 billion yuan, a 14.24% increase from the previous year [2] - The price of electrolytic manganese has risen for 13 consecutive days, reaching a new high of 17,820 yuan per ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 15% in December [5] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has expressed concerns over the declining quality of IPO applications, highlighting issues such as unclear business model descriptions and exaggerated market positions [3] - The average price of multi-link products in the photovoltaic industry has rebounded, indicating a recovery trend in the sector [4] - The price of white feather broiler chickens has approached its annual high due to reduced supply, with prices reaching 3.65 yuan per pound, indicating potential for further increases [5]

关税主导效应表现为典型的负需求冲击，包括抑制需求、推高失业率与拉低经济增长。需求收缩在多个 渠道同时显现，使得通胀下行压力增强。而市场担忧的成本推动型通胀效应往往不具备持续性，且幅度 更弱。因此，关税上调可能未必会如传统供给冲击那样引发通胀加速，总体来说，该研究认为关税冲击 的主要宏观特征与传统观点恰恰相反。短期内，关税上调会抑制经济活动并降低通胀，表现为总需求收 缩冲击的特征，而非标准模型中的成本推动冲击。这为未来美联储分析和应对关税政策带来的复杂效应 提供了一定的理论参考。 美国经济冰火两重天，联储内部分歧加大。关于关税的影响及其对物价走向的传导机制，一直是联储争 论和关注的核心议题之一。经济结构性的"冷热不均"进一步放大了联储内部在政策路径上的分歧。一方 面是企业定价行为的分化。美联储近期发布的褐皮书提到部分企业尝试将价格压力向消费者转嫁，通过 提高商品售价来维持利润空间；但也有部分企业由于需求偏弱、竞争激烈、消费者价格敏感而不敢贸然 提价，只能自行吸收成本。这直接压缩了利润率，也让企业在投资、扩张和招聘上变得更加谨慎。利润 缩减与成本上升的双重夹击，使企业经营风险显著上升，特别是零售领域承受着成本和需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic downturn in China is primarily driven by the decline in the real estate sector, which has significant ripple effects on consumer confidence and spending [4][8][73]. Group 1: Real Estate Impact - The decline in real estate is likened to "muscle cramps" rather than a "heart attack," indicating that while it is serious, it is not fatal [5][68]. - Real estate has historically contributed up to 60% to GDP growth, and its current downturn is a major factor in the weak economic performance and rising savings rates [14][18]. - A rough estimate suggests that approximately 6% of GDP has shifted from consumption to savings over the past four years due to declining consumer confidence linked to falling property prices [18][98]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Solutions - Both economists agree on the need to stimulate demand, with proposals including large-scale, unconditional consumer vouchers to boost spending [8][106]. - A "dual pillar" approach is suggested, focusing on stabilizing the real estate market while simultaneously stimulating consumer demand [9][105]. - The suggestion includes establishing a national real estate restructuring trust funded by the central government to manage industry risks and prevent further economic drag [109]. Group 3: Structural Issues and Long-term Strategy - While structural issues like high leverage and low consumption exist, they are not the immediate causes of the current economic slowdown [80][111]. - The focus should be on increasing total consumption and investment rather than merely adjusting their proportions in GDP [102][104]. - The current economic strategy aims to ensure a "soft landing" for real estate and to stimulate new growth drivers while managing systemic risks [70][110].

Market Overview - On November 7, the A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.16% and 0.37% respectively, while the North Star 50 Index rose nearly 1% [3] - The total market turnover for the half-day was 1.27 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous day, with over 2,300 stocks rising [5] Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector saw significant gains, with stocks in phosphorus chemical, fluorine chemical, organic silicon, and titanium dioxide experiencing high activity. Notable stocks included Dongyue Silicon Materials and Haixin Energy Technology, which hit the 20% daily limit [10][11] - The photovoltaic equipment sector also performed well, with companies like Hongyuan Green Energy and Yijing Photovoltaic reaching their daily limits [12] - The electric power equipment sector rose in tandem, with stocks like Ruitai New Materials and Tianji Shares also hitting the daily limit [13] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector experienced a surge, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising due to increased market demand and reduced inventory. Companies reported full orders and strong product demand [14] Storage Chip Sector - The storage chip sector showed localized activity, with stocks like Demingli hitting the daily limit and reaching a historical high of 271.85 yuan per share. The supply-demand situation for storage chips remains tight, with SK Hynix completing negotiations for HBM4 supply with Nvidia [16][20] AI Sector - The AI application sector faced declines, with stocks related to operating systems, servers, and ChatGPT collectively underperforming. Concerns over high valuations in AI-related companies have intensified, leading to discussions about a potential "AI bubble" [21][24]

Core Viewpoint - The transition from physical assets to intelligent assets is reshaping the global energy landscape, becoming a strategic focal point for companies [1] Group 1: Energy Industry Transformation - The core competition in the energy sector is shifting from traditional "material assets" to future "artificial intelligence assets" [1] - AI is viewed not merely as a tool but as a central entity, evolving energy systems into an "intelligent ecosystem" rather than just a collection of devices [1] - The complexity of power systems is increasing exponentially as renewable energy becomes the primary source, leading to heightened price volatility in the market [1] Group 2: Physical AI Concept - The concept of "physical artificial intelligence" is introduced, which integrates AI with physical laws and system boundaries, enhancing reliability in real-world applications [1] - By combining data intelligence with physical laws such as energy conservation and aerodynamics, traditional AI limitations can be overcome [1] Group 3: AI in Energy Systems - Envisioned applications of physical AI include embedding perception, decision-making, and execution capabilities into real-world devices and infrastructure, transforming energy supply and demand dynamics [2] - Major energy companies are investing heavily in physical AI, with firms like Shell focusing on digital twins and predictive maintenance to optimize operations [2] Group 4: Strategic Investments in Physical AI - SoftBank's acquisition of ABB's robotics business for $5.375 billion is part of its broader vision for physical AI, aiming to merge superintelligent AI with robotics [3] - SoftBank is actively investing in AI chips, robots, and data centers, expanding its portfolio in the AI sector [4] - NVIDIA's CEO emphasizes that the next wave of AI will be physical, enabling machines to understand and interact with the real world [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of several important national standards starting from September aims to regulate emerging industries, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, create a favorable consumption environment, and ensure the safety of people's lives and property [2]. Group 1: Artificial Intelligence Standards - The mandatory national standard "Identification Methods for AI-Generated Synthetic Content" (GB 45438-2025) establishes identification methods for AI-generated synthetic content, applicable to service providers [3][5]. - The implementation of this standard will help prevent security risks associated with AI-generated content and enhance the safety level of the AI industry [5]. Group 2: Cybersecurity Standards - The recommended national standard "Criteria for Determining Cyber Attacks and Cyber Attack Events" (GB/T 37027-2025) standardizes the description elements, determination, and counting methods for cyber attacks, guiding organizations in monitoring and analyzing cyber incidents [6]. - This standard will provide technical support for maintaining cybersecurity through improved analysis and perception of cyber attack behaviors [7]. Group 3: Smart Home Appliances Standards - The recommended national standard "Voice Interaction Technology for Smart Home Appliances - Part 1: General Requirements" (GB/T 45354.1-2025) outlines the classification, framework, technical requirements, and usage instructions for voice interaction in smart home appliances [8][9]. - The implementation of this standard will enhance the convenience, safety, and reliability of voice interaction features in smart home appliances [9]. Group 4: Furniture and Electrical Safety Standards - The mandatory national standard "Flame Retardant Performance Safety Technical Specification for Furniture" (GB 17927-2024) specifies requirements for flame retardant performance, inspection rules, and labeling for soft furniture [10]. - The implementation of this standard will improve furniture product quality and promote healthy development in the furniture industry [10]. Group 5: Electric Bicycle Safety Standards - The mandatory national standard "Safety Technical Specification for Electric Bicycles" (GB 17761-2024) sets technical requirements for safety, mechanical safety, electrical safety, and more for electric bicycles [12][13]. - This standard will significantly enhance the safety technical level of electric bicycles and regulate industry competition [13]. Group 6: Kitchen Appliance Energy Efficiency Standards - The mandatory national standard "Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Grades for Kitchen Appliances" (GB 21456-2024) establishes energy efficiency levels and technical requirements for kitchen appliances like rice cookers and microwaves [14]. - The implementation of this standard will improve energy efficiency levels of kitchen appliances and promote green consumption [14]. Group 7: Motor Efficiency Standards - The mandatory national standard "Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Grades for High Voltage Three-Phase Asynchronous Motors" (GB 30254-2024) specifies energy efficiency levels and technical requirements for electric motors [15][16]. - The implementation of this standard will enhance energy-saving technology levels in the motor manufacturing industry [16]. Group 8: Drug Testing Standards for Drivers - The mandatory national standard "Threshold Values and Testing for Drug Content in Vehicle Drivers" (GB 45248-2025) defines threshold values and testing methods for 11 types of drugs in drivers [17][18]. - This standard will provide solid technical support for combating drug-related driving offenses and maintaining public safety [18]. Group 9: Outdoor Fitness Equipment Standards - The mandatory national standard "General Requirements for Outdoor Fitness Equipment" (GB 19272-2024) outlines requirements for materials, design, safety warnings, and maintenance for outdoor fitness equipment [19][20]. - The implementation of this standard will promote the comprehensive upgrade of outdoor fitness equipment to meet diverse fitness needs [20].

Group 1 - The implementation of new national standards starting from September 1 aims to regulate emerging industries and promote healthy development, energy conservation, and consumer safety [1] - The national standard for AI-generated synthetic content identification (GB 45438—2025) is mandatory and will help mitigate security risks associated with AI-generated content [2] - The national standard for network attack and incident determination (GB/T 37027—2025) provides guidelines for monitoring and analyzing network attacks, enhancing cybersecurity [3] Group 2 - The national standard for voice interaction in smart home appliances (GB/T 45354.1—2025) aims to improve the convenience and safety of voice interaction features in smart appliances [4] - The mandatory national standard for furniture flammability (GB 17927—2024) sets requirements for flammability performance, promoting quality control in the furniture industry [5] - The national standard for electric bicycle safety (GB 17761—2024) outlines technical requirements for safety and quality, supporting industry regulation and export trade [6] Group 3 - The mandatory national standard for energy efficiency in kitchen appliances (GB 21456—2024) establishes efficiency levels and testing methods, encouraging green consumption [7] - The national standard for high-voltage three-phase asynchronous motors (GB 30254—2024) aims to enhance energy-saving technologies in the motor manufacturing industry [8] - The national standard for drug content in drivers (GB 45248—2025) sets thresholds for various drugs, providing a framework for combating drug-related driving offenses [10] Group 4 - The mandatory national standard for outdoor fitness equipment safety (GB 19272—2024) specifies requirements for design, materials, and safety, promoting upgrades in outdoor fitness facilities [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience and growth potential of China's high-tech manufacturing sector, highlighting its role in driving overall industrial profits despite challenges faced by other industries [2][3]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first seven months, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the decline rate compared to the first half of the year [2]. - In July, profits fell by 1.5% year-on-year, but this marked a 2.8% improvement from June, indicating a narrowing of the contraction [2]. - High-tech manufacturing showed a significant turnaround, with profits growing by 18.9% in July, compared to a decline of 0.9% in June, contributing to an overall acceleration in profit growth for large-scale industrial enterprises [2]. Group 2: Emerging Industries - The biopharmaceutical industry has developed strong international competitiveness through years of resilience, while the artificial intelligence sector has maintained its leading position in international competition by seeking differentiated advantages [2]. - The article illustrates that Chinese enterprises possess the drive and innovation capabilities necessary for growth, provided they are given the appropriate space to operate freely [2]. Group 3: Market Support for Innovation - The rise of domestic AI chip company Cambricon, which surpassed Kweichow Moutai in stock price, reflects a market consensus supporting companies focused on technological advancement [3]. - Investors are willing to take risks on companies that demonstrate potential for upward technological breakthroughs, indicating a collaborative effort among market participants to drive growth [3]. Group 4: Structural Challenges - The performance of high-tech manufacturing highlights a growing structural divide in the economy, with upstream raw materials and consumer services still facing significant challenges [4]. - Industries that have not yet recovered from negative growth pose risks that need to be addressed through effective support mechanisms, including legal and institutional preparations for market exits and restructuring [4]. Group 5: State-Owned Enterprises and Market Reforms - Data shows that profits for state-owned enterprises have declined, while foreign and private enterprises have seen positive growth, underscoring the need for reform in state-owned enterprises [5]. - The article advocates for market-oriented reforms as essential for the modernization and profitability of state-owned enterprises, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a balance between power and rights in economic governance [5].