文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体下跌，截止到收盘，回到4.3星。 大中小盘股都下跌，中小盘股下跌略多。 价值风格波动相对小一些，银行、红利等指数略微下跌。 成长风格波动比较大，创业板、科创板下跌超2%。 港股特点跟A股类似。 港股红利类品种波动相对小一些，港股科技等成长风格下跌较多。 最近港股回调后，港股科技等指数也刚回到低估。 临近年底，市场担心美元降息节奏放缓，叠加日元加息，市场流动性收紧。 亚太地区股票市场，以及长期纯债等资产都出现了波动。 A股大盘点数又接近11月时的位置了。 从10月份年内高点，到今天收盘，中证全指回调了大约5.1%。 在牛市里，市场上涨也不是一帆风顺的，中间也经常会有波动。 最近1年多，A股有三次回调超过10%，分别在去年10月、今年1月和今年4月。 并且牛市里，上涨与上涨之间，也经常间隔数月。 例如24年9月份，A股大幅上涨，下一轮大幅上涨，就到25年三季度了。 试想下，如果要等到26年三季度再迎来下一波上涨，有多少人能坚持呢？ 要有足够的耐心，才能等到市场下一轮上涨的到来。 投资，是一个资产从没有耐心者，向有耐心者转移的游戏。 1. [大吉大利，今天吃基] ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current valuation levels of the A-share market, indicating that the market is in a relatively high valuation zone, with specific attention to the Buffett Indicator and various PE and PB ratios across different indices and sectors [6][24]. Valuation Indicators - The current Buffett Indicator for the A-share market is 87.95%, which is above the safe zone, indicating a relatively high market valuation [6][25]. - Major broad market indices have PE ratios (TTM) exceeding 20%, with specific indices like the Shenzhen Component Index at 15.89, Shanghai Composite Index at 17.09, and ChiNext Index at 22.88, all reflecting high valuation percentiles [7][28]. - The PE valuation percentiles for various indices are notably high, with the ChiNext Index at 95.77% and the Shanghai Composite Index at 91.36%, suggesting caution in investment decisions [7][12]. Sector Valuation Levels - Non-bank financials and food & beverage sectors have PE valuations below the 20% percentile of the past decade, indicating potential investment opportunities [7]. - Sectors such as coal, telecommunications, electronics, and real estate show high PE valuation percentiles, ranging from 81.49% to 98.48%, which may pose investment risks [7][34]. Market Overview - The total market capitalization of listed companies in Shanghai is approximately 422.1 billion yuan, with an average PE ratio of 15.97 [20][21]. - The total market capitalization in Shenzhen is around 633.2 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 15.89, indicating a similar valuation trend [21][23]. Industry-Specific Valuations - The PE valuation levels for various industries show significant variation, with agriculture at 14.95, basic chemicals at 12.52, and steel at 5.69, indicating differing investment attractiveness across sectors [34]. - The banking sector has a low PE of 4.31, while the non-bank financial sector is at 12.87, suggesting a potential divergence in performance and valuation within the financial industry [34][37]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the need for careful evaluation of investment opportunities in the current high valuation environment, particularly focusing on sectors with lower PE ratios as potential areas for investment [7][34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends, particularly focusing on the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on global markets and the valuation of dividend indices. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall market has seen a decline, with the closing rating at 4.2 stars [1] - All market caps, including large, medium, and small caps, experienced a downturn, with small-cap stocks declining the most [2] - Growth style stocks faced significant declines compared to value style stocks [3] - The Hong Kong stock market showed minor fluctuations, with a slight decrease, less volatile than the A-share market [5] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in December, aligning with market expectations [6][7][8] - The Fed's future rate cut pace remains uncertain, with concerns about the high level of U.S. debt and interest payments [10][11] - Market expectations suggest further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, but the pace may be slower than previously anticipated, leading to market volatility [12][13][14] Group 3: Implications for Global Assets - A "hawkish" rate cut approach may benefit global assets in the short term, but uncertainty around future cuts could lead to significant market fluctuations [16][17] - Short-term interest rates may rise, and the dollar could appreciate temporarily, negatively impacting non-dollar assets [18][19] - Historical data indicates that rapid rate cuts can lead to bullish trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as seen from 2019 to 2021 [25][26] Group 4: Valuation Insights - The article provides a valuation table for various dividend indices, highlighting metrics such as yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and return on equity [31] - The valuation data indicates that certain indices are undervalued and suitable for investment, while others are overvalued [48] - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of interest rates and their impact on market opportunities, suggesting a strategy of buying undervalued assets during downturns [30][37]

每经记者｜黄小聪 每经编辑｜叶峰 此前，我们已经分多期对比了多个同名ETF以及它们背后跟踪的指数。本期再来对比两组同名ETF：疫苗ETF和卫星ETF。 疫苗ETF 目前有2只产品的名称都是疫苗ETF，其中疫苗ETF（159643.SZ）的管理公司是国泰基金，跟踪的指数是国证疫苗与生物科技指数。 国证疫苗与生物科技指数是由业务涉及生物科技产业的50家证券组成，反映沪深北交易所生物科技产业中优质上市公司的整体表现，成分股的平均市值约 545亿元。 | 元) | | | --- | --- | | 最大値 | 4.231.83 | | 平均值 | 544.57 | | 中位数 | 255.10 | | 最小值 | 79.80 | | 台计 | 27.228.40 | 另一只疫苗ETF（562860.SH）的管理公司是嘉实基金，跟踪的指数是中证疫苗与生物技术指数。 继续对比两个指数目前的估值水平，Wind数据显示，国证疫苗与生物科技指数目前的市盈率TTM处在近十年中位数左右的位置，而中证疫苗与生物技术指 数目前的市盈率TTM回升到历史75%分位以上。 卫星ETF 中证疫苗与生物技术指数是选取不超过50家业务涉及疫苗研 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘盘中一度下跌，到收盘反弹，中证全指略微上涨。 大盘还在4.2星。 像上证和中证系列的指数，基本上都是6月和12月份调仓，调仓时间是当月第二个周五之后。 螺丝钉也收集了一些大家感兴趣的问题。 1. 指数为啥要定期调仓呢？ 指数都有一定的选股规则和选股数量的要求。 一段时间里股票涨涨跌跌，有的股票就不符合要求。 沪深300等大盘股略微下跌，中小盘股上涨。 价值风格中，自由现金流等指数上涨。 前两天上涨的创业板等成长风格，盘中下跌较多，到收盘反弹了起来，波动不大。 港股今天盘中也下跌，波动比A股小一些。 不过到收盘，港股也反弹，整体上涨。 后天，也就是12月12日，收盘后，又到了指数调仓日了。 这个过程，不会让基金净值出现太大变化的，投资者持有该基金的盈利也不会发生变化（假设指数不涨不跌）。 但底层持有品种变化，估值会改变。 3. 此次调仓，主要指数的估值会怎么变化呢？ 因为指数比较多，螺丝钉收集了一些有代表性的指数。 另外指数默认不考虑亏损公司，有的股票亏损了，也会被踢出指数。 2. 调仓前后，指数基金的净值会变化吗？持有基金的盈利会变化吗？ 调仓不改变基金的盈亏情 ...

这些指标涵盖估值、基金收益、股债性价比等关键维度，数据全部来自Wind、好买基金APP等权威渠 道，截止到2025年12月5日前后，参考性十足。 指数估值市场的 "基础体温计" 先从最基础的指数估值说起，这就像给市场测体温，能直观判断当前是低估、中估还是高估。 行业里有个通用标准：近5年PE/PB估值分位数低于20%是绿灯，代表低估，适合买入；20%到80%之间 是黄灯，属于中估，适合持有。 文|锐资 编辑|锐资 前言： 家人们，最近A股回调让不少投资者心里打鼓：现在到底是该抄底、持有还是观望？ 其实判断市场贵不贵，不用靠猜，跟着6个核心指标走，就能把当前市场位置看得明明白白。 超过80%是红灯，说明高估，该考虑卖出了。不过要注意，单看估值不够全面，实际投资还得结合政 策、经济形势和行业基本面，不能一刀切。 接下来是大佬董承非分享的"法宝指标"，偏股基金滚动3年年化收益率。 这个指标特别实用，能快速判断市场所处阶段：当它大于30%时，往往意味着股市进入泡沫阶段，风险 在积聚；当它小于-10%时，大概率是熊市的相对底部，机会大于风险。 目前这个数值是3.5%，既没到泡沫区间，也没跌入底部区域，从这一点来看，当下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of annual portfolio rebalancing as a means to review and adjust investment strategies, ensuring alignment with long-term goals and risk tolerance [4][27]. Group 1: Portfolio Rebalancing - Annual rebalancing should be viewed as a health check for investment strategies, allowing investors to correct deviations caused by emotions and market fluctuations [4][12]. - The first step in rebalancing is to assess the stock-bond allocation to ensure it aligns with the investor's risk tolerance, suggesting a starting point of 50% stocks and 50% bonds for non-professional investors [10][11]. - Investors should regularly recalibrate their asset allocation to avoid unintentional shifts in risk levels due to market movements [11][12]. Group 2: Valuation Review - The second step involves confirming the current valuation of held indices, which helps investors distinguish between normal market fluctuations and potential overvaluation risks [14][15]. - Understanding valuation can reduce emotional decision-making, allowing for more disciplined investment actions based on market conditions [15][16]. - Investors are encouraged to mark previous purchase points to identify emotional buying patterns and improve future decision-making [14][15]. Group 3: Structural Review - After assessing valuations, the next step is to review the portfolio structure to ensure a balanced approach between core, defensive, and growth assets [18][20]. - A well-structured portfolio should include core indices for stability, defensive indices to mitigate volatility, and growth assets for potential higher returns [20][21]. - Adjustments should be made to maintain a balanced exposure across these categories, avoiding over-concentration in any single area [20][21]. Group 4: Adjustment Process - The adjustment process should be gradual rather than drastic, focusing on minor tweaks to realign the portfolio with the established strategy [23][24]. - Investors should prioritize selling positions that do not align with their risk preferences or were acquired based on market hype rather than informed decisions [24][25]. - When adding to positions, it is advisable to fill gaps in core holdings or defensive assets, ensuring a well-rounded portfolio [25]. Conclusion - The annual rebalancing process is not about achieving a perfect portfolio but about maintaining composure and strategy in the face of market uncertainties [27][29]. - The goal is to ensure that investors can navigate future market cycles with confidence and adherence to their investment strategies [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a rotation in styles, with growth stocks performing strongly while value stocks are lagging behind. Recent regulatory changes are expected to facilitate more capital inflow into the market, particularly benefiting certain indices [3][5][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market is up, with a closing rating of 4.2 stars [1]. - All market caps (large, mid, and small) have seen similar increases [2]. - The growth style is particularly strong, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2% [3]. - However, there is a rotation in market styles, with growth outperforming value [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - Two positive regulatory announcements were made last week: 1. Insurance institutions have lowered the risk factors for investing in the CSI 300 and the Low Volatility Dividend 100 indices [9][10]. 2. There is a relaxation of capital space and leverage restrictions for quality brokerage firms, enhancing capital efficiency [11]. - These changes are expected to encourage more funds to enter the market [12]. Group 3: Risk Factors and Investment Strategies - The risk factor is akin to a "capital occupation coefficient," which determines how much capital insurance companies must reserve for risky investments [14]. - The risk factors for specific indices have been adjusted: 1. For stocks held over three years in the CSI 300 and Low Volatility Dividend 100, the risk factor decreased from 0.3 to 0.27 [15]. 2. For stocks held over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the risk factor decreased from 0.4 to 0.36 [16]. - This adjustment allows insurance companies to allocate more funds to these indices, which is a positive signal for these stocks [17][18]. Group 4: Investment Insights for Retail Investors - Different indices are assigned varying risk levels by institutional investors, which can guide retail investors in their choices [21][22]. - The risk hierarchy for insurance institutions is as follows: 1. Broad-based and value style indices (e.g., CSI 300) are considered lower risk [23][26]. 2. Growth style indices (e.g., ChiNext) have higher risk factors, leading to more cautious investment [29]. 3. Smaller individual stocks not included in major indices carry the highest risk [31][32]. - Observing the risk factors assigned by insurance institutions can help retail investors identify suitable investment options [33]. Group 5: Future Investment Trends - The first batch of indices to be included in personal pension accounts by December 2024 will primarily consist of broad-based indices and dividend-focused indices [34]. - Recently, new stock-bond constant ratio indices have emerged, focusing on broad-based and dividend indices [36]. - Broad-based and dividend products are increasingly being promoted by financial institutions for individual investors [37].

（来源：一观大势） 作者：方奕/李健 核心观点：上周（2025/12/1-2025/12/5）成交活跃度上升，创业板指领涨。宽基指数：估值全面上涨，创业板指领涨。行业指数：PE估值家电，PB估值有 色金属领涨。情绪：交易活跃度上升，换手率全面上升，成交额全面下降。ERP：环比下降。 投资要点 ▶指数估值：估值全面上涨，创业板指领涨。宽基指数：估值全面上涨，创业板指领涨。PE-TTM历史分位：各指数全面上涨，创业板指领涨，涨1.7个 pct。PB-LF历史分位：各指数全面上涨，创业板指领涨，涨1.3个pct。风格指数：估值涨多跌少，大盘股风格领涨。PE-TTM历史分位：各风格涨多跌 少，大盘股风格领涨1.4个pct。PB-LF历史分位：各风格涨多跌少，大盘股风格领涨5.1个pct。 ▶行业估值：PE估值家电，PB估值有色金属领涨。行业PE：估值涨多跌少，家电领涨。PE-TTM历史分位：各行业估值涨多跌少，家电领涨3.7个pct。 PE-G对比：电力设备及新能源具有性价比。行业PB：估值涨多跌少，有色金属领涨。PB-LF历史分位：各行业估值涨多跌少，有色金属领涨8.9个pct。 PB-ROE对比：银行具有性价比。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural bull market, characterized by significant gains in specific sectors while others lag behind, indicating potential investment opportunities in undervalued stocks [10][11][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market opened lower but closed higher, returning to a rating of 4.2 stars [1]. - All market caps, including large, mid, and small caps, saw increases, with small caps outperforming slightly [2]. - Both value and growth styles experienced upward movement [3]. Group 2: Positive Market Drivers - Positive news circulated during the trading day, contributing to market gains [4]. - Insurance institutions lowered risk factors for indices like the CSI 300 and the Low Volatility Dividend 100, allowing for increased allocation to these stocks [5][6]. - This adjustment led to significant increases in sectors such as securities, insurance, and value stocks [7]. Group 3: Structural Bull Market Characteristics - Structural bull markets often see certain categories of stocks rise significantly while others may not reach high valuations [10][12]. - Historical examples include the small-cap growth bull market in 2015 and the large-cap value bull market from 2016 to 2017 [13][14]. Group 4: Current Market Trends - The main drivers of this year's market increase are small-cap and growth styles, with indices like the CSI 2000 and tech-focused boards showing gains exceeding the market average [15]. - Many stocks in these categories have strong fundamentals, with tech companies in A-shares and Hong Kong showing over 30% year-on-year profit growth [18]. - Some sectors, such as consumer and healthcare, have seen moderate profit growth, while others like consumption have experienced declines [21][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Stocks that are currently underperforming may become leaders in future market cycles, emphasizing the need for patience among investors [27][32]. - Even undervalued indices can yield returns over time, as seen with dividend and low-volatility indices that have appreciated by 50-70% since 2018 despite not reaching high valuations [40][41]. Group 6: Valuation Insights - The article provides a valuation table for Hong Kong indices, indicating that the market has already returned to a rating of over 3 stars due to earlier gains compared to A-shares [42]. - The valuation metrics for various indices, including PE ratios and dividend yields, are summarized for investor reference [43].