文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘低开高走，整体上涨，截止到收盘，回到3.8星。 昨天美股等市场出现下跌。 今天A股开盘受到影响，不过到下午整体涨了回来，市场还是比较强势。 大盘股整体上涨较多，小盘股微涨。 红利等价值风格，今天非常强势。 上证红利上涨3%，回到正常估值。 A股港股红利类指数大幅上涨。 今年1月份大盘上涨后，红利等品种成为为数不多的低估类指数，最近也开始补涨了。 昨天上涨的成长风格，今天整体下跌。 主动优选1月份减仓了高估的成长风格，加仓了低估的价值风格。 这几天也连续上涨。 港股今天整体微涨。 风格跟A股类似，港股恒生红利低波动等价值风格指数大幅上涨， 港股科技等成长风格继续下跌。 港股恒生指数，上周创下这轮牛市的新高，最高达到了3.5星。 之后几个交易日也出现回调。 1. 最近市场又进入到震荡期。 其实之前咱们也介绍过，A股牛市涨幅很可观。 但A股的牛市多为闪电快牛，在很短的时间里暴涨来体现。 从2024年9月份以来，A股上涨了50-60%。 但涨幅主要体现在三个时间段。 （1）第一波上涨 2024年9月最后两周，大涨超40%，也创下了A股最近10年最快上涨速度。 证券等行业 ...

伦敦黄金最近几天最大回撤达到21%，伦敦银价最大回撤达到41%。 之前咱们提示过黄金白银到了高估。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 但是以这么快的速度下跌，还是最近40年首次。 受商品价格大跌影响，今天全球股票市场也出现较大波动。 A股港股大幅下跌。到收盘回到4.00星上下。 大中小盘股都下跌。 中小盘股下跌多一些，中证500下跌近4%。 价值风格下跌稍少。沪港深红利低波动下跌1.5%。 现金流指数下跌近4%。 成长风格整体下跌。 消费等行业比较坚挺，整体上涨。 港股今天下跌比较多。 港股科技前段时间上涨回到正常估值，今天下跌后也回到低估了。 咱们在1月12日，大盘大涨到三点几星的时候，对主动优选、指数增强完全暂停了申购。 避免了追涨买入的风险，这在市场上也是比较少见的。 点击查看： 【重磅】投顾组合新福利来了&股票基金组合暂停申购 也有朋友问啥时候会重新打开限购呢？ 今天大盘回调，刚好在4.00星上下。可以等市场再回落一些、彻底回到四点几星的时候打开。 1. 今天受商品价格大跌影响，引发全球市场出现较大波动。 黄金白银波动原因主要两方面： （1）前期商品价格上涨比较多，估值偏高。 一般资产都是越上涨 ...

大家好，我是银行螺丝钉，欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期，为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故事，比如《三十几岁，财务自由》、《如何读一本 书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师：股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理·芒格和指数基金之父约翰·博格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的 理念。 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集： 《 世界读书日，螺丝钉送你121本私藏经典好书 》 往期回顾 第一篇：《 红利策略，在A股有效吗：《红利指数基金投资指南》告诉你 》 红利指数最适合的投资方式 这几期螺丝钉带你读书，咱们介绍的，是螺丝钉新出的一本书，《红利指数基金投资指南》。 关于新书的详细介绍，可以点击查看文章： 《红利指 数基金投资指南》新书来了&新书福利 上一篇，咱们介绍了红利指数基金的起源。 本质是人民币的低利率环境，让红利指数的高股息性价比提升。 那红利指数最适合的投资方式是什么呢？ 如果用一句话总结，那就是「低估买入，持股收息」。 机构是 红利股的主要投资者 其实时至今日，国内红利类股票的投资主力，还不是个人投资者。 而是保险、养老金等机构 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 上午大盘上午微跌，下午变成上涨。还在3.8星。 沪深300等大盘股微涨，中小盘股上涨多一些。 前两周比较低迷的红利、现金流等价值风格指数整体上涨。 创业板、科创板等成长风格上午下跌，到收盘也变成上涨。 螺丝钉还是挺喜欢这种不同风格轮动的走势。 这种走势下，容易出现低买高卖调仓的机会。 像主动优选前两周调仓，刚好匹配最近的风格轮动。 今年开年，主动优选和指数增强，也创下了最近几年，最强开门红。 在短期上涨后，目前主动和指数组合都回到正常估值，暂停了申购。 已经持有的部分，组合会帮助做好调仓，短期不用钱可以持有。 后面出现整体止盈机会，也会介绍的。 港股略微上涨。港股红利类指数领涨。 1. 有朋友问，看到有的网站，中证红利市盈率只有8倍多。 但是看螺丝钉估值表里，中证红利市盈率则是10倍出头。 为啥会有差异呢？ 这其实是一个老生常谈的话题，在2016年的时候螺丝钉就讨论过。 这涉及到指数的加权方式，即计算估值的时候，每个股票分配的比例多少。 2. 首先说一下现状。 目前国内大多数平台，都没有自己的指数估值数据，是花钱采购金融终端的估值数据。 而金融终端中，通常对所有指数是用 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 沪深300略微上涨，中小盘股上涨更多一些。 前两天比较强势的价值风格，今天微跌。 成长风格上涨。 港股上午下跌，不过到下午收盘也变成上涨。 港股科技股领涨。 1. 今天A股港股等人民币资产都非常坚挺。 不过海外市场波动比较大。 周二的时候，标普500、纳斯达克100都下跌超2%。 今天大盘整体微涨，到收盘，还在3.8星。 出现了2025年年内的低点。 不过当时咱们也写过分析。 美元利率比较高，每年庞大的利息支出对美元压力很大。 提高关税不利于降低美元通货膨胀，也不利于美联储继续降息。 原因是特朗普又宣布对欧洲部分国家提高关税。 引发市场短期担心。 欧美股市普遍下跌，黄金等受短期避险心理影响，短期大幅上涨。 2. 2025年4月，发生过类似的事情，当时也是因为要打算增加关税。 提高关税，不利于降低通货膨胀，也不利于美元利率下降。 当时引发全球股票市场短期大幅下跌。 2025年4月初，A股港股跌到5星，全球股票指数跌到4.2星。 所以关税更多的是一种谈判的工具，最终落地的高关税并不多。 随后2025年3-4季度美联储继续降息，A股港股大涨，全球股票市场也出现了比较大的涨幅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations, with large-cap stocks showing slight declines while small-cap stocks are facing more significant drops. Recent weeks have seen a shift towards value and dividend styles, which are gaining strength after a period of underperformance [2][3][4][5]. Market Performance - The overall market has seen a decline, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index slightly down, while small-cap stocks have dropped more significantly [2][3]. - Value and dividend indices have recently increased, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards these styles [4][5]. - Growth styles, particularly in the ChiNext board, have seen a pullback after reaching high valuations in previous weeks [6]. Investment Strategy - The company has adjusted its active selection strategy, taking profits from overvalued growth styles and increasing positions in undervalued value styles, aligning with the recent style shift [7][8]. - Active selection and monthly investment portfolios have achieved new highs recently, reflecting successful strategy implementation [9]. Fund Management - The Hong Kong stock market has shown slight declines, with less volatility compared to A-shares [10]. - The company has introduced a new fee structure for investment advisory services, capping annual fees at 360 yuan regardless of the number of portfolios held, which is a first in the industry [16][19]. - The company has paused subscriptions for certain investment portfolios to prevent investors from chasing high prices, indicating a focus on maintaining investment discipline [20]. Index Valuation - The CSI 1000 index has reached high valuation levels, prompting the company to initiate a phased profit-taking strategy for holdings in this index [22]. - The company has successfully executed profit-taking on its holdings in the CSI 1000 index, achieving returns of approximately 71% to 72% on recent sales [22]. New Publications - A new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released, quickly becoming a bestseller, aimed at educating investors about dividend index funds [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting signals of a potential late-stage bull market and the behavior of institutional investors regarding ETF investments. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index showing more significant drops compared to small and mid-cap stocks [2] - Both value and growth styles saw declines, while Hong Kong stocks opened higher but closed slightly down, mirroring A-share volatility [2] Group 2: Bull Market Signals - Several signals indicating a late-stage bull market have emerged, including a single-day subscription volume for stock funds reaching 100 billion and increased margin requirements from major exchanges [3] - On Thursday, the largest ETF, the CSI 300 ETF (510300), saw a net outflow of approximately 20 billion, marking the largest single-day outflow since 2012 [4][5] Group 3: ETF Market Status - The domestic ETF market has grown rapidly, with total ETF assets increasing from less than 1 trillion to 6 trillion by early 2026 [8] - Institutional investors, rather than retail investors, currently dominate the index fund market, with entities like state-owned enterprises, insurance companies, and pension funds being the primary investors [11][12] Group 4: Institutional Investor Behavior - In the 2024-2025 period, state-owned entities significantly increased their holdings in ETFs during market dips, typically buying at around 5-star ratings [13][14] - Recently, as the market has surged, some ETFs have begun to experience substantial net outflows, suggesting that institutions may be taking profits [17][18] Group 5: Implications for Investors - Current market signals indicate that the market is becoming less attractive for new investments, with caution advised for chasing high prices [30][31] - Investors who have already made profits should consider gradual profit-taking strategies as the market rises [36][37] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The article provides a summary of the valuation of Hong Kong indices, indicating that the Hong Kong market has also returned to a 3-star rating [38] - A detailed valuation table for various indices is included for reference [39] Group 7: New Book Release - The article announces the pre-sale of a new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide," which aims to help investors understand dividend index funds better [41][42]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, focusing on the performance of various indices, particularly dividend indices, and the importance of patience in index fund investment strategies. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market experienced slight declines, with the closing rating at 3.8 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks like the CSI 300 saw minor gains, while small-cap stocks faced more significant declines [2] - Recent days have shown a notable pullback in small-cap stocks after a period of substantial gains [3] - Value style indices showed little volatility, with cash flow indices experiencing slight increases [4][5] - Hong Kong stocks also faced declines, particularly in technology sectors, while dividend stocks remained stable [6][7] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article highlights that undervalued stocks are becoming scarce as the market rises, although some dividend indices still have undervalued options [9][10] - The performance of indices like the CSI 500 low volatility has been strong since 2018, with an approximate 80% increase [16] - The article emphasizes the importance of patience in holding onto low volatility and dividend strategies, which can lead to passive valuation reductions through strategic rebalancing [25][26] - A structural bull market is noted, where not all indices rise or fall simultaneously, indicating the need for strategic investment choices [28][38] Group 3: Dividend Indices and Valuation - The article provides a valuation table for dividend indices, indicating various metrics such as earnings yield and price-to-earnings ratios [41] - The dividend index has seen rapid growth in scale over recent years, with many investors expressing interest and questions regarding these products [46][47] - A new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released to assist investors in understanding dividend indices better [45][48]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a pullback, with the overall rating at 3.8 stars, indicating a pause in investment opportunities for stock fund combinations until a return to 4-5 stars [2][43]. Market Performance - All market segments, including large, medium, and small-cap stocks, saw declines [3]. - Growth-oriented sectors such as the ChiNext and STAR Market faced significant downturns [5]. - Conversely, value-oriented styles, including dividend stocks, showed overall gains [6]. - Some undervalued stocks in the market began to see a gradual increase in valuation [7]. Investment Strategy - Following a rise on January 12, both active and index funds have paused subscriptions [8]. - The company advises patience until the market returns to a 4-5 star rating before resuming stock fund subscriptions [9]. Fund Management - The company has initiated a phased profit-taking strategy for the CSI 1000 index, which has reached a high valuation [14][18]. - A methodical approach is being employed, selling 10% of holdings weekly over approximately 10 weeks, with recent sales yielding around 71% returns [20]. - Proceeds from these sales will be reinvested into the "Monthly Salary Treasure" fund, with plans to allocate funds to other products once they return to normal valuations [21][22]. Personal Pension Fund - The company continues to invest in the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility fund, while suspending investments in the CSI A50 until it returns to normal valuation [27]. - The personal pension index fund is a new investment category, with a maximum annual contribution of 12,000 yuan [27]. Upcoming Publications - A new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" is set to be available for pre-sale, aimed at educating investors about dividend index funds [30][31].