Group 1 - The phenomenon of call options not increasing in price despite the underlying asset's price rising can be attributed to several key factors [3][4][6] - Changes in the underlying asset's price directly affect the price of call options, and if the asset's price does not rise or falls, the call option price may not increase [3][6] - Volatility is a critical factor; a decrease in volatility can lead to a situation where the price of call options does not rise even if the underlying asset's price increases [3][6][7] Group 2 - Time decay is a significant reason for the lack of increase in call option prices; as the expiration date approaches, the time value of options diminishes, potentially offsetting any gains from the underlying asset's price increase [6][7] - Market demand for options can also influence their prices; a decrease in demand for call options can result in stagnant or declining prices despite favorable movements in the underlying asset [3][4] - Macroeconomic conditions and policy changes can impact the pricing of call options, as tighter monetary or fiscal policies may lower overall market risk appetite, affecting option prices [3][4]

Market Overview - The macro environment has improved since June 2025, leading to a significant rebound in major stock indices and most commodity futures prices, despite some disturbances from the Israel conflict [1] - Financial, chemical, and non-ferrous metal sectors saw a notable increase in options trading volume in June, indicating an expansion of the options market [1][2] Financial Market Conditions - In June, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating marginal recovery despite remaining in contraction territory [2] - The production index rose to 51.0%, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing activity, while the new orders index increased to 50.2%, indicating improved domestic demand [2] Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF was 648.77 million, with a month-on-month increase of 1.45% [3] - The total trading volume for the A-share market reached 44,715.60 million, with a significant month-on-month increase of 11.38% [3] Options Market Activity - The options market saw increased activity, with the trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options at 75.29 million, reflecting a 16% month-on-month increase [6] - The overall options trading volume for June was 463.70 million, with a 12% increase compared to the previous month [6] Commodity Market Conditions - The agricultural commodity market experienced fluctuations, with soybean meal prices rising initially due to lower quality ratings for U.S. soybeans, but later stabilizing as Brazilian soybeans arrived in large quantities [11] - The average daily trading volume for soybean meal futures was 1.18 million, showing a 26% increase month-on-month [12] Chemical Market Conditions - Crude oil prices initially rose but later fell due to easing tensions in the Middle East, with the market focusing on OPEC+ production policies [20] - The average daily trading volume for crude oil futures was 0.23 million, with a significant month-on-month increase of 2.3% [21]

智通财经APP获悉，随着全球地缘政治风险显著升温，股市近期表现却波澜不惊，令全球范围的期权交易员们陷入 进退维谷：卖出波动率之际若冲突陡然升级恐遭打脸，买入波动率操作则有可能因实际走势低迷而持续亏损或者损 失溢价比例。美国出动B-2轰炸机轰炸伊朗大型核设施后，这种地缘政治张力导致的期权市场两难操作困境只会进一 步加剧。与此同时，自以色列对伊朗发动空袭以来，油价已飙升11%，油市波动率则升至2022年俄乌战争以来最 高。 从盘面上来看，期权交易员们当前正处于"卖出波动率怕爆雷、买波怕流血"的微妙平衡，或者说是一种难以抉择的 操作困境：因为卖出波动率可能会因地缘政治突然之间升级而措手不及，而买入波动率的操作则意味着可能在实际 波动长期保持低迷的情况下损失溢价。这种环境导致了全球期权市场的混乱局面，即隐含波动率大幅下降，但溢价 仍然很高，使交易员们难以进行长期以来有利可图的高杠杆期权交易。 期权趋势数据显示，隐含波动率(IV)已自春季高位大幅回落，但实际波动率(RV)更低，导致看似"便宜"的IV仍显得昂 贵。卖波动率操作若地缘风险突然爆发，亏损呈跳跃式放大，爆仓就是一瞬间的事情;买波动则在θ(时间价值)加速衰 减中 ...

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - level options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the IV change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [3] Group 2: Volatility Charts - There are multiple charts showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50 - ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500 - ETF, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, rubber, PTA, crude oil, methanol, iron ore, PVC, urea, rebar, fuel oil, aluminum, and zinc from different time periods [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][13][14][15][21] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Quantiles - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low [17] - The document provides the implied volatility and historical volatility quantile rankings for various products such as PTA, PVC, methanol, etc. For example, PTA has an implied volatility quantile of 0.75, and 300 - stock index has an implied volatility quantile of 0.00 [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 26 - May 30, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market declined, with an average daily trading volume of 5.47 million lots and an average daily open interest of 8.48 million lots, showing a -7% and +2.32% change respectively compared to the previous period. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options decreased, with 41 varieties rising weekly. High - rising varieties include rapeseed meal (+3.17%) and apples (+1.49%); high - falling varieties include polysilicon (-9.79%), rubber (-7.77%), and alumina (-6.53%) [2][15]. - This week, the implied volatility of some commodities rebounded, with 34 varieties showing a month - on - month increase in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties such as polysilicon, industrial silicon, and rubber carry unilateral risks, and investors are advised to focus on short - volatility opportunities; low - volatility varieties like vegetable oils, sugar, and iron ore have lower option purchase prices, and industrial customers can consider deploying insurance strategies [2][15]. - Currently, the volume PCR of rubber, synthetic rubber, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment in the market; the volume PCR of alumina is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, urea, rebar, and PTA is at a historical high, suggesting a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment; while the open interest PCR of gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 5.47 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.48 million lots, with a -7% and +2.32% change respectively compared to the previous period [1][8]. - Actively traded varieties this week included PTA (530,000 lots), glass (460,000 lots), and soda ash (430,000 lots). Six varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with significant increases in paraxylene (+3439%), industrial silicon (+198%), and bottle chips (+150%); significant decreases were seen in polystyrene (-84%) and ethylene glycol (-61%) [1][8]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest this week were soybean meal (880,000 lots), soda ash (620,000 lots), and glass (570,000 lots). Rapid growth in open interest was observed in paraxylene (+117%), industrial silicon (+89%), and manganese silicon (+45%) [1][8]. 3.2 Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - Most underlying futures of commodity options decreased this week, with 41 varieties rising weekly. High - rising varieties were rapeseed meal (+3.17%) and apples (+1.49%); high - falling varieties were polysilicon (-9.79%), rubber (-7.77%), and alumina (-6.53%) [2][15]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodities rebounded this week, with 34 varieties having a month - on - month increase in implied volatility and 27 varieties having their current implied volatility below the historical 50% quantile. High - volatility varieties included polysilicon, industrial silicon, and rubber; low - volatility varieties included vegetable oils, sugar, and iron ore [2][15]. 3.2.3 Option Market Sentiment - The volume PCR of rubber, synthetic rubber, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment; the volume PCR of alumina is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, urea, rebar, and PTA is at a historical high, suggesting high - level accumulated bearish sentiment; while the open interest PCR of gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Orient Futures Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Option Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and other data of various indexes and ETFs are presented, including the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and others. For example, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2728.43, up 11.80, with a trading volume of 31.43 billion lots [1]. - **Option Market Statistics**: The trading volumes, changes, open interests, and other data of various index options and ETF options are provided. For instance, the trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 20,579, a decrease of 3,760, and the open interest was 54,113, an increase of 1,521 [1]. Option Indicator Data Statistics - **Option Volatility Statistics (Near - Month)**: Data such as ATM - IV, IV changes, same - term HV, HV changes, Skew, Skew changes, and VIX are given for different options. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 13.21%, with an IV change of 0.31% [4]. - **Option Volatility Statistics (Next - Month)**: Similar data for the next - month options are presented, including ATM - IV, IV changes, same - term HV, HV changes, Skew, and Skew changes [4]. Option Charts - **Index Option Charts**: For each index option (e.g., Shanghai Composite 50 Index options, CSI 300 Index options, and CSI 1000 Index options), there are charts showing the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skewness trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [6][10][15]. - **ETF Option Charts**: For each ETF option (e.g., Shanghai Composite 50 ETF options, Huatai - Baorui 300 ETF options), there are charts presenting the main - contract volatility trend, the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skewness trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [22][24][26].

在选择策略时需避免在标的方向和波动率上均出现亏损 本文分析了白糖行业上游企业在价格波动市场中，利用期权进行套期保值的策略。通过2023—2024年白糖市场行 情的数据，分析白糖上游企业在大幅行情波动中使用不同期权策略以增厚利润并对冲市场风险的效果，重点对比了备 兑开仓和买入看跌期权策略的优缺点及适用情境。研究发现，在低波动率时宜选择买权，以获更佳保护；白糖期权的 波动率具非对称性，需避免标的方向和波动率均出现亏损。此外，白糖期货价格波动较大，使用虚值期权更能减少成 本损耗。 [策略对比] 作为郑商所上市的期权品种，白糖期权的非线性损益特征为企业运用衍生品进行风险管理提供了更多思路，有助 于提升企业的稳健生产经营能力。白糖期权自上市以来，随着市场机制的不断成熟，合约流动性稳步提升，产业参与 度不断扩大。2023年，白糖期权日均成交量为18万手、持仓量为42万手，市场规模足以满足各类企业的套期保值需 求。2023—2024年，白糖价格受到诸多因素的冲击波动较大，呈现冲高回落的态势，白糖主连最低点一度来到了5500 元/吨、最高点达到7202元/吨。面对这种跨越牛熊的行情，白糖的上游企业如何有效地利用期权增厚利润为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **看多品种**: 五大、短纤 [1] - **看空品种**: 铜、PTA、苯乙烯、尿素 [1] - **震荡品种**: 股指、国债、黄金、白银、铝、氧化铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、工业硅、多晶硅、螺纹钢、热卷、铁矿石、锰硅、硅铁、玻璃、焦炭、棕榈油、豆油、棉花、生猪、燃料油、沪胶、乙二醇、甲醇、PE、PP、PVC、烧碱、菜油 [1] - **观望品种**: 纸浆 [1] - **震荡偏空品种**: 原木 [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - 五一期间海外不确定性大，建议部分品种轻仓过节，关注国内外宏观及资源国政策变动 [1] - 不同品种受关税、贸易摩擦、供需格局、成本、政策等因素影响，走势各异，投资策略需根据各品种具体情况制定 [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - 股指期货短期轻仓观望，节前可考虑介入股指期权双头策略；国债受资产荒和弱经济利好，但短期央行提示利率风险压制上涨空间；黄金短期震荡调整，中长期上涨逻辑未变；白银关税不确定性高，商品属性限制银价上方空间 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - 铜下游需求尚可，但贸易摩擦影响下价格反弹后有回调风险；铝价因全球贸易摩擦不确定性震荡运行；氧化铝供需格局好转，下行空间有限但上行缺乏动力；锌关注逢高空机会；镍和不锈钢受关税、印尼资源税政策影响，短期震荡运行，关注成本支撑和政策变动 [1] - 锡价因曼相矿区复产预期，短期上方压力较大；工业硅供过于求，进入低估值区间；多晶硅短期跌幅大，有反弹需求；碳酸锂供给未收缩，库存累库 [1] Black Metals - 螺纹钢、热卷受贸易风波影响，短期风险偏好差；铁矿石受关税政策影响短期承压；锰硅库存高但成本有支撑；硅铁成本松动但产区减产；玻璃需求脉冲式释放；焦煤和焦炭供需相对过剩，关注期现正套和卖出套保机会 [1] Agricultural Products - 棕榈油和豆油资金节前避险情绪强，建议观望；棉花受原油和化纤替代影响，需求或偏弱；原糖因海外担忧价格上行，国内产量大增压制内盘；五大余粮趋紧且产区干旱，盘面预期震荡偏强；豆粕供应预期改善，建议等待低位布局多单 [1] - 纸浆受贸易摩擦影响暂无利好，盘面贴水建议观望；原木到船和库存高位，贸易摩擦利空需求；生猪存栏和出栏体重增加，盘面贴水现货 [1] Energy and Chemicals - 原油影响棉纺需求，PTA因装置检修和市场传闻看空；乙二醇装置检修；短纤工厂减产加工费扩张，看多；苯乙烯受关税影响下游需求转弱，看空；尿素供需宽松，价格向下调整 [1] - 甲醇短期区间震荡，中长期或由强转弱；PE、PP因宏观风险和贸易战震荡偏弱；PVC基本面弱难以趋势上涨；烧碱节前需求一般，盘面震荡偏弱 [1] Others - 集法财线强预期弱现实，旺季合约可轻仓试多，关注6 - 8反套 [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the financial options industry Core Insights - The financial options market is experiencing an increase in trading volume and market sentiment adjustment, indicating a bullish outlook [2] - The total average daily trading volume for various options is reported at 646.90 million contracts, with a total average daily trading value of 573.97 billion yuan [2] - The report highlights a convergence of implied volatility and historical volatility for several options, suggesting a potential stabilization in market expectations [13][15][17][20][24][26][28][32][35][37][39] Summary by Sections 1. Options Market Trading Overview - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index options is 2.99 million contracts, with a total trading value of 8.72 billion yuan [2] - The average daily trading volume for the CSI 1000 Index options is 23.42 million contracts, with a total trading value of 204.40 billion yuan [2] - The average daily trading volume for the CSI 300 Index options is 9.14 million contracts, with a total trading value of 42.65 billion yuan [2] - The Southbound 500 ETF options have the highest average daily trading volume at 123.04 million contracts, with a total trading value of 113.66 billion yuan [2] 2. Options Volatility Statistics - The implied volatility for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index options is reported at 13.48%, with a decrease of 1.27% [4] - The implied volatility for the CSI 1000 Index options is reported at 21.57%, with a decrease of 0.54% [15] - The implied volatility for the Southbound 500 ETF options is reported at 18.05%, with a decrease of 1.08% [26] - The implied volatility for the Huatai-PB 300 ETF options is reported at 13.77%, with a decrease of 0.93% [24] 3. Options Market Liquidity - The report indicates a significant increase in liquidity across various options, with the total open interest reaching 867.34 million contracts [2] - The total trading value for the options market has shown a consistent upward trend, reflecting increased investor participation [8][9] 4. Market Sentiment Indicators - The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) is utilized to gauge market sentiment, with fluctuations indicating shifts between bullish and bearish sentiments [40] - The PCR for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index options has shown a trend towards bullish sentiment in recent weeks [43] - The PCR for the CSI 1000 Index options has also indicated a similar trend, reflecting overall market optimism [43]