哈喽，大家好，今天小睿这篇市场观察，聚焦六大核心指标拆解 A 股当前性价比，估值合理但情绪降 温，现在该抄底还是观望？ 临近2025年末，A 股市场呈现出 "数据矛盾" 的独特格局，估值指标显示市场处于合理区间，资金面持 续回暖，但情绪指标却发出谨慎信号。 判断市场 "贵不贵"估值是核心锚点，根据近5年PE/PB估值分位规则，当前 A 股整体处于中估区间，但 结构分化明显。 董承非分享的偏股基金指数指标更具参考性，当近3年年化收益率大于30%为泡沫阶段，为熊市底部， 而当前该指标仅 3.6%，意味着市场位置仍处于相对安全区域。 从全局看巴菲特指标当前为87%，处于 60%-90% 的合理区间，对比2024年底的63.59% 显著提升，但远 低于美股 230% 的水平，凸显成长空间。 合理区间内的结构分化 股债性价比进一步验证了 "不便宜也不贵" 的结论，全A指数股债性价比2.78%，接近近10年 2.56% 的均 值，处于近 10 年前 43.17% 分位，即比历史上 56.83% 的时期更具吸引力。 不过结构分化值得关注，创业板指近 10 年估值分位仅 28.98%，而沪深 300、中证 500 均超 70 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - Forecasted incremental funds in 2026 from insurance, wealth management, and pensions amount to 3.1 trillion. End - of - year pre - positioning in technology is likely [4]. - This week, risk appetite rebounded, with the VIX index falling and the basis of near - month stock index futures contracts narrowing significantly. The A - share market showed a structural trend, with the technology sector leading the rise [4]. - End - of - year pre - positioning is occurring. Margin trading funds have been flowing back to technology for two weeks, and this week, southbound funds shifted from a hedging and balanced strategy to flowing into electronics [4]. Group 2: Asset Price Performance 2.1. Performance of Major Asset Classes - This week (2025/12/8 - 2025/12/12), US stocks rose, while A - shares and Hong Kong stocks fell. Technology stocks performed well, with the US Nasdaq, A - share ChiNext, and STAR 50 all rising. The bond market showed a differentiated performance, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6% [13]. 2.2. A - share Market - Among broad - based indices, micro - cap and dividend indices declined significantly, while the ChiNext and STAR 50 performed well. The ChiNext rose 2.7% and the STAR 50 rose 1.7% this week [19]. - Except for micro - cap stocks, the average daily trading volume of most broad - based indices increased, returning to the level of mid - August [23]. - The top five rising industries this week were communication (7.6%), national defense and military industry (5.1%), non - banking finance (4.3%), machinery and equipment (3.8%), and electronics (3.1%), with technology stocks leading the gains. Cyclical value stocks such as coal, oil and petrochemicals, real estate, and banks performed relatively poorly [29]. 2.3. Technology Sector - In October, the technology sector contracted significantly. In November, optical modules and optical communication rebounded. In the first two weeks of December, optical modules, optical communication, computing power, semiconductor equipment, and controllable nuclear fusion had excess returns [33]. - This week, the technology sector as a whole performed well. On Monday and Friday, most sub - sectors rose, and on Thursday, most sub - sectors fell, but it did not affect the overall upward trend [37]. Group 3: Fund Behavior Tracking 3.1. Margin Trading Funds - As of Thursday this week, the proportion of margin trading turnover in A - share turnover rebounded from 10.01% to 10.53%. The margin trading balance was approximately 2.51 trillion, and the proportion of margin trading balance to A - share free - float market capitalization was about 2.63% [48]. - From Monday to Thursday, margin trading funds continued to flow into major broad - based indices, while most broad - based ETF funds had net outflows, except for the STAR 50 and the Shanghai Composite Index, which had net inflows [53]. - This week, stocks with a market capitalization of over 3 billion added leverage. In stocks with a market capitalization of over 500 billion, industrial and commercial stocks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Ping An of China, and Zhongji Innolight had large net margin purchases [57]. - Industries with a large proportion of net margin purchases to trading volume this week were banking, commerce and retail, coal, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and real estate. Non - banking finance added leverage this week after five consecutive weeks of de - leveraging [59]. - Some popular stocks in electronics, machinery, and non - ferrous metals added leverage this week. The average ratio of net margin purchases to trading volume of the top 35 popular stocks rose to 3.00% this week [71]. 3.2. Quantitative Funds - In the past two weeks (12/1 - 12/12), the excess returns of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index enhancement strategies were - 0.5% and - 0.2% respectively [73]. 3.3. Stock Index Futures - This week, the basis of near - month stock index futures contracts narrowed significantly, but the basis of far - month contracts remained at a relatively high level since July. The number of "this month" contracts decreased, while the number of "next month", "current quarter", and "next quarter" contracts increased [83]. 3.4. Main Funds - Main funds in the CSI 300 and ChiNext and STAR markets continued to have net outflows, and the net outflows accelerated. Main funds in the CSI 300 and ChiNext had significant net outflows on Thursday, and main funds in the STAR market had net outflows for five consecutive days, with a large outflow on Friday [88]. - Main funds flowed into banking and steel industries and flowed out of electronics, computer, and communication industries [92]. 3.5. Northbound Funds - This week, the total trading volume of northbound funds rebounded, with the average daily trading volume rising from 192.7 billion to 232.5 billion, and the proportion in A - share trading volume rising from 11.34% to 11.85% [94]. - This week, the decline of heavy - position stocks in the Hong Kong - connected Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect widened, and the median of the rise - fall ratio widened from - 0.39% to - 1.47%. The Hong Kong - connected Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect 50 index failed to outperform the CSI 300 this week [101]. 3.6. Southbound Funds - This week, the average daily trading volume of southbound funds rose from 138 billion to 158.3 billion, and the proportion rose from 51.2% to 54.9%. The average daily net purchase amount decreased from 2.1 billion to - 0.6 billion [103]. - Southbound funds continued to flow into industries such as electronics, automobiles, and banking, but the single - week net inflow scale of the banking industry decreased significantly compared to November. Commerce and retail shifted from continuous net inflows to net outflows [109].

Market Fund Flow Overview - Institutional funds have shown a net outflow from major indices, while retail funds have stabilized after a brief outflow, indicating a shift towards net inflow [3][10] - The net inflow rate difference between retail and institutional funds for the ChiNext index fell into negative territory from December 4 to 8, suggesting stronger institutional support for the index during this period [3][10] Market Capitalization and Valuation Style - Institutional funds are accelerating their outflow from high valuation indices and the CSI 300, reflecting a profit-taking tendency, while retail funds continue to flow into high valuation and large-cap styles [3][22] - The net inflow rate difference between retail and institutional funds has narrowed significantly after December 11, indicating a potential increase in institutional support for small-cap stocks [3][22] Major Industry Style - Both institutional and retail funds have consistently flowed into the consumer sector, while there is a divergence in the technology and cyclical manufacturing sectors [4][27] - Institutional outflows from the technology sector have increased again after a brief slowdown, while outflows from the cyclical sector have shown a converging trend [4][27] Primary Industry Fund Flow - In the upstream resources sector, there is a strong consensus on non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, with institutional outflows from non-ferrous metals no longer significantly increasing [5][40] - The midstream materials and manufacturing sector has seen high trading activity in electrical equipment, while the downstream essential consumption sector has seen increased institutional investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery [5][40] Leverage Fund Situation - The margin trading balance remains high at approximately 2.51 trillion yuan, with the average collateral ratio slightly fluctuating [5][77] - The trading activity of margin financing has stabilized, with the trading volume accounting for 9.89% of total market transactions, indicating sustained market risk appetite [5][79] - The net buying amount of margin trading in the electronics sector has significantly increased, indicating a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment [5][84]

南方财经12月11日电，2025年以来，两融市场持续升温，券商业务调整动作频频，既能满足市场旺盛的 信用交易需求，也能进一步优化业务布局。11月以来，已有3家券商对两融业务做出调整：12月9日晚， 东吴证券公告将两融业务授信总规模调整为不超过净资本的600%，长江证券则宣布将信用业务规模上 限由520亿元调整为公司2024年末经审计合并净资本的300%；早前11月27日，东方证券也披露将修订 《公司融资融券业务管理办法》。据不完全统计，2025年内已有9家券商通过上调业务规模上限、调整 授信管理模式等方式优化两融业务布局，包括东吴证券、长江证券、东方证券、华泰证券、招商证券、 华林证券、山西证券、兴业证券、浙商证券等。（21世纪经济报道）查看原文：杠杆资金持续活跃 年 内已有9家券商优化两融业务布局刚刚 ...

12月8日沪指上涨0.54%，市场两融余额为25005.15亿元，较前一交易日增加188.39亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至12月8日，沪市两融余额12664.27亿元，较前一交易日增加82.81亿元； 深市两融余额12265.26亿元，较前一交易日增加104.97亿元；北交所两融余额75.62亿元，较前一交易日 增加0.62亿元；深沪北两融余额合计25005.15亿元，较前一交易日增加188.39亿元。 分行业看，申万所属行业中，融资余额增加的行业有31个，增加金额最多的行业是电子，融资余额增加 55.56亿元；其次是有色金属、非银金融行业，融资余额分别增加23.26亿元、12.61亿元。 具体到个股来看，融资余额出现增长的股票有2045只，占比54.50%，其中，313股融资余额增幅超过5% 。融资余额增幅最大的是瑞星股份，该股最新融资余额280.65万元，较前一交易日增幅达157.46%；股 价表现上，该股当日下跌1.27%，表现弱于沪指；融资余额增幅较多的还有致尚科技、天力复合，融资 余额增幅分别为116.55%、72.53%。 融资余额增幅前20只个股中，从市场表现来看，平均上涨4.65%， ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant net financing activities in the stock market, indicating investor interest in specific stocks and sectors [1] Group 1: Financing Activities - A total of 1,758 stocks received net financing inflows this week [1] - 781 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 10 million [1] - 86 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million [1] - 2 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 1 billion [1] Group 2: Top Gainers - C Moer-U topped the list with a net inflow of 1.701 billion [1] - Tianfu Communication, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Industrial Fulian followed with net inflows of 1.197 billion, 829 million, and 803 million respectively [1] Group 3: Top Losers - Zhongji Xuchuang, Dongshan Precision, and Beijing Junzheng experienced the highest net outflows, with amounts of 1.225 billion, 956 million, and 443 million respectively [1]

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至12月3日，沪市两融余额12587.50亿元，较前一交易日减少18.56亿元； 深市两融余额12163.17亿元，较前一交易日减少19.78亿元；北交所两融余额75.25亿元，较前一交易日 减少0.28亿元；深沪北两融余额合计24825.92亿元，较前一交易日减少38.62亿元。 12月3日沪指下跌0.51%，市场两融余额为24825.92亿元，较前一交易日减少38.62亿元。 分行业看，申万所属行业中，融资余额增加的行业有10个，增加金额最多的行业是通信，融资余额增加 9.27亿元；其次是有色金属、银行行业，融资余额分别增加6.52亿元、5.17亿元。 具体到个股来看，融资余额出现增长的股票有1642只，占比43.79%，其中，157股融资余额增幅超过5% 。融资余额增幅最大的是精创电气，该股最新融资余额602.86万元，较前一交易日增幅达89.52%；股价 表现上，该股当日下跌19.80%，表现弱于沪指；融资余额增幅较多的还有通宇通讯、华映科技，融资 余额增幅分别为76.58%、44.39%。 融资余额增幅前20只个股中，从市场表现来看，平均上涨3.04%，涨幅居前的有绿岛风 ...

ETF进化论 杠杆资金，清算时刻来临？ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a positive start in December, with all three major indices rising and trading volume increasing significantly, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and investor participation [1] Market Performance - On the first trading day of December, the total trading volume reached 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.59 trillion yuan on November 28, marking a notable increase [1] - This increase in trading volume reversed the declining trend observed in late November [1] Leverage Fund Activity - The enthusiasm for leveraged funds has rebounded, with the latest data showing that as of December 1, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 1.249 trillion yuan, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 1.211 trillion yuan, and the Beijing Stock Exchange was 75.69 billion yuan, totaling 2.467 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.21 billion yuan since November 28 [1] - This marks the first occurrence of a net financing inflow exceeding 10 billion yuan in a single day since October 29 [1] Historical Context - In November, the attitude of leveraged funds was notably cautious, with the total financing balance across the market at 2.456 trillion yuan as of November 28, a decrease from 2.469 trillion yuan on October 31 [1] - During November, there were 19 trading days, with 9 days showing net financing outflows, and no day recorded a net financing inflow exceeding 10 billion yuan, contrasting sharply with the more active participation of leveraged funds observed in the second half of the year [1]

浄流） (亿元) 净流出 (亿元) | >옵 | 米 田 | .. | | 117.45 108.33 107.16 | 容 | ш 精 | 东 | பபட | 24.95 20.32 17.07 15.03 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花 矢口 | | | | | 7 | 말 集 | 美 | | | | 412 | 比 | | | | 4 | 利 | 菲 | | | | == | 东方 | | 92.14 | | 纪 | 武 | 害 | | | ( 指数 涨跌幅 上证指数 深证 155.85% 国 晟 科 生能假 合富中 143.31% 累计涨幅 k 盛 链 132.48% 累计跌幅 132.47% 品高股 122.40% 海科新 清 104.64% 水 98.08% 塞微电 81.16% 梦天家 79.09% 真爰美 76.89% 佛 塑 科 一图速览>> 版 数 标 数据来源 | Wind * 策划 | | | | | 川 富 9.33 东 E E | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...