Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025 - 07 - 22 [1] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi, with Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610 and Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The resistance to raising prices of raw material butadiene has emerged, weakening the cost - side support for butadiene rubber. With the restart of most butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - to - late July, the supply is expected to increase. Last week, driven by the macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price rose significantly, leading to a decline in the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises and a slight increase in the inventory of trading enterprises. After the restart of some devices this week, the domestic supply is expected to increase, while downstream buyers continue to bargain, which may drive up the inventory of production enterprises. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually returned to normal, driving a restorative increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises is stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in orders in the middle and late stages, which is expected to have a small positive impact on the overall operation rate. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,400 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 49,351, with a week - on - week increase of 34,358. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber is 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 2,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 69.21 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 572.88 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.5 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,050 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 67.2 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,825 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 375 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,700 tons, with no week - on - week change; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.96%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,600 tons; the operation rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 47.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 65.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 632 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 850 tons; the weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 6,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 330 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operation rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 75.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.07 percentage points; the operation rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.1%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 40.85 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 17, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 230,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.59%. As of July 17, the production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points. In June 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a 4% increase from May and a 29% increase from the same period last year. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - No news today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback on rubber demand may gradually emerge, and rubber prices will fluctuate and bottom out. In June, the rubber fundamentals will remain weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. After the rubber price breaks through the support level, it may continue to fall to the previous low [2][104]. - For butadiene rubber, the cost of butadiene shows an oscillating pattern. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber may continue to be in a loss state. The supply side will change little in June, but the demand from downstream and terminal automotive sectors is significantly weakening, and the impetus from exports is insufficient, leading to a decline in the price of butadiene rubber [104]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - **Futures prices**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the RU, NR, and BR futures prices changed by -1150 yuan/ton, -420 yuan/ton, and +65 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Basis**: The RU, NR, and BR basis on May 30, 2025, were -55 yuan/ton, 134 yuan/ton, and 555 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +100 yuan/ton, +32 yuan/ton, and -65 yuan/ton compared to April 30 [7]. - **Backwardation structure**: The rubber month - spread BACK structure deepened [9]. - **Price spreads**: The RU - NR spread on May 30, 2025, was 1833 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 559 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 536 yuan/ton [12]. - **Substitution relationship**: The price spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber narrowed, weakening the substitution effect of synthetic rubber [17]. - **Processing profit**: The processing profit of Thai standard rubber on May 28, 2025, was -102.48 dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.08 dollars/ton and a year - on - year increase of 27.96 dollars/ton [19]. 3.2 Supply - **Domestic and foreign production areas**: In 2025, the phenological conditions in the global main production areas of natural rubber are good, and the tapping progress in domestic and foreign production areas is smooth. By June, the tapping in large - scale production areas such as Thailand will be in full swing, and the raw materials will increase significantly [23][104]. - **Production volume**: ANRPC predicted that the global natural rubber production in April 2025 would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, and the annual production would increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [26]. - **Export volume**: The cumulative year - on - year export volume of major producing countries increased. For example, Thailand's total export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first four months increased by 13.5% year - on - year, and the export volume to China increased by 38% year - on - year [37]. - **Import volume**: China's imports of natural and mixed rubber continued to rise year - on - year and month - on - month. In April 2025, the imports of natural and mixed rubber were 523,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.9% and a year - on - year increase of 41.6% [42]. - **Synthetic rubber supply**: The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.3% on May 30, 2025. There were few restarting devices for butadiene rubber in June [45][51][52]. 3.3 Demand - **Domestic demand**: The domestic demand for natural rubber was stable with a slight increase. However, the downstream tire industry faced high inventory and weakening digestion ability, and the sales pressure of terminal automobile enterprises increased [56][104]. - **Export demand**: From January to April 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased year - on - year, but the export may weaken in the second half of the year [67]. - **Automobile industry**: The production and sales of automobiles continued to grow, but the demand for passenger cars and commercial vehicles was significantly differentiated [68][70]. 3.4 Inventory - **Exchange inventory**: As of May 30, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 198,720 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,050 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 211,684 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,073 tons. The 20 - rubber warehouse receipt was 17,641 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53,524 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 27,517 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,821 tons [76]. - **Social inventory**: As of May 25, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.308 million tons, the social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 790,000 tons, and the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 518,000 tons [78]. 3.5 Position - **RU position**: The total position of the RU main contract rebounded. As of May 30, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 233,478 lots, a week - on - week increase of 74,078 lots [84][87]. - **NR and BR positions**: The NR position was 38,816 lots on May 30, 2025, a week - on - week increase of 12,612 lots; the BR position was 42,809 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,690 lots [87]. 3.6 Options - **Natural rubber options**: Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and put - call ratios of trading volume and open interest is provided [90][92]. - **Butadiene rubber options**: Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and put - call ratios of trading volume and open interest is provided [98][100].

Report Summary - The synthetic rubber outperformed natural rubber this week. The rise of synthetic rubber was mainly due to the sharp increase in the price of butadiene. For natural rubber, recent weather affected the tapping progress, leading to less raw material output and high purchase prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed after the holiday, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was still difficult and had not recovered to last year's level. Macroscopically, the substantial progress in the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs exceeded market expectations, and the pessimistic sentiment was repaired. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [6][24]. - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the US since May 14, 2025. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The tariff measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped [7]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 8.9% and 9.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 43.8% and 44.2%. In April, automobile exports reached 517,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [7]. - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications reached 3.225 million, with over 53% for new energy vehicles [7]. - The weekly rainfall in global natural rubber producing areas increased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas would increase in the next two weeks, affecting tapping [7]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials was strong. Qingdao Port's inventory increased while the general trade inventory decreased. The butadiene price rose rapidly, increasing the losses of butadiene rubber producers. The inventory of butadiene rubber factories and traders decreased. The overall tire capacity utilization rebounded [7]. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors included strong raw material prices strengthening cost support and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US. Bearish factors were the difficult inventory removal of tire companies suppressing capacity utilization and the difficult inventory removal in Qingdao [10]. Data Analysis - As of May 15, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 61.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 54.15 Thai baht/kg. The glue price in Yunnan, China, was 13,800 yuan/ton. The raw material prices at home and abroad moved up compared with last week. Weather affected the tapping progress, resulting in less output and high prices, strengthening cost support [12]. - As of the week of May 9, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 89,994 tons, an increase of 5,003 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 528,699 tons, a decrease of 497 tons. After the holiday, the macro - sentiment and the recovery of downstream production drove some terminal purchases, but the inventory in Qingdao fluctuated slightly [13]. - This week, the domestic butadiene market rose rapidly. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs drove up the prices of commodities and related products in the butadiene industry chain. The port inventory decreased, some devices had unplanned maintenance, and merchants held back goods, tightening the supply. The market's unexpected rise stimulated downstream chasing sentiment, but as the price reached a high level, downstream buying became cautious. As of May 15, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was 11,200 - 11,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 700 yuan/ton [15]. - As of the week of May 16, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons. The easing of the macro - atmosphere this week boosted the spot trading sentiment, and both factory and trader inventories decreased [17]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the capacity utilization of all - steel tires was 59.88%, an increase of 18.19% from last week, and the inventory - available days of all - steel tires in Shandong factories were 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days. The capacity utilization of semi - steel tires was 71.21%, an increase of 24.5% from last week, and the inventory - available days of semi - steel tires in Shandong factories were 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days. After the holiday, production resumed, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was difficult and had not recovered to last year's level [19]. - As of May 15, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract was weak. Affected by the short - term strength of synthetic rubber, the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract declined [21]. Market Outlook - The rise of synthetic rubber was due to the sharp increase in butadiene prices. For natural rubber, weather affected tapping, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed but the capacity utilization had limited upside as inventory removal was difficult. Macroscopically, the Sino - US tariff negotiation improved market sentiment. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate at a low level. With high overseas macro - uncertainty and the implementation of domestic policies, the spot price of natural rubber has declined, and the bearish sentiment among industry players is strong. The low downstream开工 rate may be affected by holidays and high finished - product inventories. Although Thailand's delayed rubber tapping provides short - term cost support for natural rubber prices, the lack of improvement in downstream demand, domestic spot inventory accumulation, and under - expected macro - performance will suppress the spot market price [64]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In April 2025, China imported 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 31% year - on - year increase. From January to April 2025, the total import was 2.869 million tons, a 23.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - In Q1 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 65.145 million pieces. Passenger car tire sales increased by 3% year - on - year, while truck and bus tire, agricultural tire shipments decreased by 4% year - on - year, and motorcycle/scooter tire shipments increased by 7% year - on - year [6]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a 9.4% year - on - year increase. From January to April 2025, the cumulative sales volume was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [7]. - In Q1 2025, the US imported 70.67 million tires, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. From January to March 2025, the number of tires imported from China increased by 5.5% year - on - year, and that from Thailand increased by 7.7% year - on - year [7]. - Thailand postponed the 2025 rubber tapping season by one month, which is expected to reduce the rubber supply by 200,000 tons and affect the global natural rubber price trend [8]. 3.2 Price - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber markets rebounded. On May 9, 2025, the closing price of RU2509 was 14,620 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.45%; the closing price of NR2509 was 12,370 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.02%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 168.10 cents/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.00%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 301.20 yen/kg, with a weekly increase of 3.08% [10][11]. - The basis of whole - milk rubber to RU and the 09 - 01 month - spread changed. On May 9, 2025, the value of whole - milk - RU was - 70 yuan/ton, with a 54.84% month - on - month increase; the 09 - 01 month - spread was - 850 yuan/ton, with a 14.09% month - on - month decrease [15]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 narrowed, while the value of the RU - JPX RSS3 spread increased [16]. - This week, the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber followed the market fluctuations. The enthusiasm of holders to quote was fair, but downstream replenishment was cautious, and the actual transaction was average [18]. - The price of synthetic rubber increased more than that of RU this week, and the spread between synthetic rubber and RU converged [26]. 3.3 Fund Trends - On May 9, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of the RU main contract was 7.20, with a 19.43% month - on - month decrease; the virtual - to - physical ratio of the NR main contract was 6.59, with a 3.91% month - on - month decrease; the settled funds of the RU main contract were 4.224 billion yuan, with a 7.85% month - on - month decrease; the settled funds of the NR main contract were 1.222 billion yuan, with a 21.60% month - on - month decrease [30][31]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Supply - The weather in Thailand was generally normal this week, with a significant increase in rainfall in the northeast. In Hainan, precipitation was slightly higher, and the weather in Yunnan was normal [34][35]. - Due to recent rain affecting the rubber - tapping process at home and abroad, the supply in China increased well, while the supply in Thailand was low, leading to a rise in raw material prices and cost support [36]. - The price difference between Thai cup - lump and rubber latex slightly expanded, and the price difference between Hainan rubber latex for concentrated latex production and that for whole - milk rubber production decreased [40]. - As the raw material price in Thailand increased, the processing profit decreased. On May 9, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 1,370 yuan/ton, with a 21.13% month - on - month decrease; the production profit of Thai smoked - sheet rubber was 2,175 yuan/ton, with an 8.23% month - on - month decrease; the production profit of Thai concentrated latex was - 884.43 yuan/ton, with a 94.26% month - on - month decrease; the production profit of Hainan concentrated latex was 389.61 yuan/ton, with a 15.25% month - on - month decrease [43][44]. - In March 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 18% month - on - month and 21% year - on - year. The import volume of Thai standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, and the import volume of Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber remained high [45]. 3.4.2 Demand - The tire production capacity utilization rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. On May 9, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 41.69%, with a 29.98% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 46.71%, with a 29.96% week - on - week decrease. The inventory days of all - steel tires were 42.52 days, with a 1.30% week - on - week decrease; the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.09 days, with a 1.79% week - on - week decrease [48][49]. - In March 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires remained high, and the sales of heavy - trucks and passenger cars increased significantly month - on - month [51][52]. 3.4.3 Inventory - As of May 9, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,500 tons, with a 0.13% week - on - week decrease and a 7.45% year - on - year decrease; the futures inventory of 20 - grade rubber at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 74,700 tons, with a 4.96% week - on - week increase and a 45.11% year - on - year decrease [58]. 3.5 Operation Suggestion - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate at a low level. Although Thailand's delayed rubber tapping provides short - term cost support for natural rubber prices, the lack of improvement in downstream demand, domestic spot inventory accumulation, and under - expected macro - performance will suppress the spot market price [64].