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需求维持刚需为主 菜籽油期价仍将承压
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-29 06:01
Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing mixed performance, with canola oil futures showing volatility and a downward trend in prices, influenced by various supply and demand factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Canola oil futures opened at 9712.00 CNY/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a maximum of 9722.00 CNY and a minimum of 9449.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.09% [1]. - As of the end of week 43 in 2025, domestic imported canola seed inventory totaled 0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous week, compared to 700,000 tons during the same period last year [1]. - The number of canola oil futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 7840 as of October 28 [1]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the export of Australian canola to China remains unstable, influenced by recent statements from the Australian Prime Minister, which may affect the risk premium in the canola market [2]. - The supply pressure from the Canadian canola harvest is significant, with reduced exports impacting prices, while domestic policies regarding anti-dumping on Canadian canola are expected to tighten supply in the fourth quarter [2]. - The market is expected to see a rebound in canola meal prices in the short term, while canola oil prices are likely to remain under pressure due to ample soybean oil supply and strong demand primarily driven by necessity [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251020
Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The better-than-expected US soybean crushing data alleviates market concerns about US soybean demand, leading to a recovery in US soybean futures prices. However, sufficient domestic supply in China still exerts significant pressure on the upside of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - The continuous growth of Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support for palm oil prices. Nevertheless, uncertainties in the Sino - US trade situation and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oil market [2]. 2. Market Data Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8252, with a price increase of 12 and a percentage increase of 0.15% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Data on spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and others are given, including their current values and previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures such as BMD palm oil and CBOT soybeans are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4350, with a price decrease of 70 and a percentage decrease of - 1.58% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices and their percentage changes of various oils and meals in domestic markets are provided, along with their spot basis and spreads. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8450, with a percentage decrease of - 0.12%, and the spot basis is 198 [1]. Import and Profit - **Import Profit Data**: Data on import and profit for various imported agricultural products are given, including current and previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 379, compared to the previous value of - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and others are presented. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 26,294, compared to the previous value of 25,444 [1]. 3. Industry Information - The US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that the soybean crushing volume in September was 197.863 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.24% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, setting the fourth - highest record for all months and the highest for the same period in history, far exceeding analysts' expectations [2]. - Due to low prices, US farmers are generally reluctant to sell, which supports the supply side. The US Department of Agriculture has stopped issuing reports due to the government shutdown [2]. - Based on analysts' expectations, as of October 12, the US soybean harvest was 58% complete, higher than the 39% estimated the previous week [2]. - According to SPPOMA, the production of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 6.86% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% month - on - month [2].
油脂油料早报-20251016
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 00:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the current situation in the global oilseeds and oils market, including soybean processing, production, and trade in the US and Brazil, palm oil exports in Malaysia, and edible oil imports in India, along with price - related data [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog US Soybean Processing and Inventory - In September 2025, the US soybean processing volume reached the fourth - highest monthly level on record, with NOPA member companies processing 197.863 million bushels, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. The market expected a decline to 186.34 million bushels [1] - The average daily processing volume in September was 6.595 million bushels, the second - highest on record [1] - As of September 30, NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory dropped to a nine - month low of 1.243 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of August but a 16.6% increase from the previous year. Analysts predicted it to drop to 1.22 billion pounds [1] - In September, the US produced 4,700,448 short tons of soybean meal and 2.352435 billion pounds of soybean oil [1] Brazil's Soybean Production and Trade - The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) estimated that Brazil's 2025 soybean production would be 165.865717 million tons, a 14.4% increase from the previous year. The planting area was estimated to be 47.696481 million hectares, a 3.6% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 0.1% increase from the previous year [1] - Industry analysts expected Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record high of 177.6 million tons, a 3.6% increase from the previous year, mainly due to a record - high planting area. Current estimates are higher than the USDA's September report [1] - Conab data showed that Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean exports were expected to increase to 112.11 million tons, with production at 177.64 million tons, planting area at 49.1 million hectares, and a yield of 3.62 tons per hectare [1] Malaysia's Palm Oil Exports - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15, 2025, were 862,724 tons, a 16.2% increase from the same period last month [1] - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15, 2025, were 781,006 tons, a 12.3% increase from the same period last month [1] India's Edible Oil Imports - In September 2025, India's palm oil imports dropped 16.3% to 829,017 tons, the lowest since May, as refineries favored cheaper soybean oil. Soybean oil imports surged 36.8% to 503,240 tons, the highest since July 2022, and sunflower oil imports increased about 6% to 272,386 tons, the highest since January [1] - The decline in palm oil imports dragged down India's total edible oil imports in September by 1% to 1.6 million tons [1] - A dealer predicted that India's palm oil imports in October might drop to about 600,000 tons, while soybean oil imports might exceed 450,000 tons [1] Price - related Data - The report provides historical data on the crushing profit of imported soybeans, import profit of various oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil), spot prices of palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as basis and price spreads of protein meals and oils [1][2]
油脂油料早报-20250925
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 01:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysis agency's average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [1]. - HedgePoint predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 178 million tons, and the export volume will be 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC has lowered its export volume estimates for Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal in September [1]. - Due to increased production and weak demand, Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 101,400 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to Guatemala for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - The average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, with a forecast range of 295 - 360 million bushels, and the USDA's previous estimate for the 2024/25 season was 330 million bushels [1]. - A survey shows that U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending September 18th are expected to increase by 60 - 160 million tons, soybean meal by 15 - 45 million tons, and soybean oil from a net decrease of 1 million tons to a net increase of 3 million tons [1]. - HedgePoint predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 178 million tons and export volume at 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC lowered its September soybean export volume estimate from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons and soybean meal from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons [1]. - GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons, production increased by 6% month - on - month to 5.11 million tons, and exports decreased by 1.92% month - on - month to 3.54 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 18th to 24th, 2025 [2]. Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis No specific information provided [3]. Oil and Oilseed Futures Price Spreads No specific information provided [5].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250918
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The September USDA report raised the planting area to 81.1 million acres, lowered the estimated soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, raised the estimated crush to 2.555 billion bushels, and lowered the estimated export to 1.685 billion bushels, resulting in an increase in the 2025/2026 US soybean ending stocks to 300 million bushels. The report's impact on the market was neutral to bearish. With the improvement signal of Sino-US trade relations, the domestic supply is expected to increase, and the short - term Dalian meal is expected to be under pressure [3]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weakly volatile. The August MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.35% month - on - month, exports decreased by 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.18% month - on - month. The bearish impact of the data has been mostly digested. The flood in Sabah, Malaysia has reduced the concern about production, and the US biodiesel blending obligation allocation proposal has brought certainty to the oil market. Oils are expected to fluctuate overall [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8366, 9424, and 9999 respectively, with changes of - 52, - 58, and - 54, and percentage changes of - 0.62%, - 0.61%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the previous day's closing prices were 3002 and 2490, with changes of - 39 and - 40, and percentage changes of - 1.28% and - 1.58% respectively. The peanut futures price was 8844, with a change of 26 and a percentage change of 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 spreads were - 68, 116, and 87 respectively, compared with previous values of 6, 202, and 129. The current values of M9 - 1 and RM9 - 1 spreads were - 57 and - 17, compared with previous values of - 35 and 17 [2]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4383 ringgit per ton, 1049 cents per bushel, 53 cents per pound, and 286 dollars per ton respectively. The changes were - 42, - 5, - 1, and - 1, and the percentage changes were - 0.95%, - 0.48%, - 2.58%, and - 0.21% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8580 and 8700, with percentage changes of - 0.69% and - 0.57% respectively. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9560 and 9450, with a percentage change of 0.53%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10250, with a percentage change of 0.29% [2]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 214 and 334, the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil was 136 and 26, and the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil was 251 [2]. Import and Crush - The current values of import profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 280, - 28, - 188, 211, 827, and 879 respectively, compared with previous values of - 223, 32, - 148, 219, 879, and 992 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 24,544, 1,570, 8,202, 29,065, 10,104, and 0 respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous values for soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, and with a decrease of 110 for rapeseed meal [2]. Industry Information - Palm oil: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% month - on - month, and production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The export volume from September 1 - 15 was 695,716 tons, a 0.1% decrease compared with the same period last month according to AmSpec [3]. - Protein meal: The September USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. Sino - US trade relations showed a positive signal, and the domestic supply of soybean meal was expected to increase [3]. - Oils: The August MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production increased, exports decreased, and inventory increased. The bearish impact of the data was mostly digested. The flood in Sabah, Malaysia reduced production concerns, and the US biodiesel blending obligation allocation proposal brought certainty to the oil market [3].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250917
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - For protein meal, the night - session of soybean meal showed weak fluctuations, while rapeseed meal closed slightly higher. The September USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. With expectations of improved domestic supply, short - term soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate weakly. For oils, the night - session of oils showed strong performance. Despite the lower - than - expected August palm oil exports from Malaysia, the bearish impact has been mostly digested. Due to flood concerns in Sabah and strong Indian imports, short - term oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8418, 9482, and 10053 respectively, with price changes of 42, 60, and 153, and percentage changes of 0.50%, 0.64%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the closing prices were 3041, 2530, and 8844, with price changes of - 1, 21, and 26, and percentage changes of - 0.03%, 0.84%, and 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 68, 116, and 87, compared to previous values of 6, 202, and 129. The current M9 - 1 and RM9 - 1 spreads were - 57 and - 17, compared to previous values of - 35 and 17 [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4383 ringgit/ton, 1043 cents/bushel, 52 cents/pound, and 286 dollars/ton. The price changes were - 42, 6, 1, and 0, with percentage changes of - 0.95%, 0.55%, 1.72%, and 0.07% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8640 and 8750, with percentage changes of 0.70% and 0.69%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9510 and 9400, with percentage changes of 0.85% and 0.86% [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 590, compared to a previous value of - 610. The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 222 [2]. Import and Crushing Profits - **Profits**: The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 223, 32, - 148, 219, 879, and 992, compared to previous values of - 287, 13, - 176, 203, 722, and 891 [2]. Industry Information - **Brazilian Exports and Production**: Brazil's September soybean export forecast rose to 753 million tons from 743 million tons the previous week. September soybean meal export forecast rose to 219 million tons from 211 million tons, and corn export forecast reached 712 million tons from 696 million tons. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast remained at 17030 million tons, 2025 export forecast remained at 10950 million tons, and 2025 crushing forecast was raised to 5850 million tons [3]. MPOb Report - **Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: Malaysia's August palm oil production was 1.85 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.32 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease. The inventory at the end of August was 2.2 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase [3].
油脂油料早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 01:18
Report Overview - The report provides overnight market information on oilseeds and oils, including data from USDA reports, export figures, and news on biodiesel projects [1]. - It also presents spot prices of various oilseeds and oils from September 8 - 12, 2025 [2]. USDA Oilseed Report Highlights Rapeseed - Global 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach 9096.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 523.5 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 1137.4 million tons, up 101 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed oil production is expected to be 3469.9 million tons, up 59.8 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 312.2 million tons, down 8.8 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed meal production is expected to be 4958.2 million tons, up 57.3 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 157.9 million tons, up 19.8 million tons [1]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed exports are expected to be 670 million tons, down 263.5 million tons; rapeseed oil exports are expected to be 337.5 million tons, up 3.5 million tons; rapeseed meal exports are expected to be 550 million tons, down 29.9 million tons [1]. Palm Oil - Global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 8081.6 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil ending stocks are expected to be 1524 million tons, up 20.6 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil exports are expected to be 4570.8 million tons, a downward revision of 45.5 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 2400 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 1610 million tons, also unchanged [1]. Soybean - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 175 million tons, the same as the August estimate; exports are estimated at 112 million tons, unchanged from August [1]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, the same as in August; exports are estimated at 6 million tons, up from 5.8 million tons in August [1]. - China's 2025/26 soybean imports are estimated at 112 million tons, the same as the August estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 425.87 million tons, down from 426.39 million tons in August; ending stocks are estimated at 123.99 million tons, down from 124.9 million tons in August [1]. Other Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10, 2025, were 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decline from the same period last month [1]. - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil content in biodiesel to 45% (B45) before reaching B50, currently at 40% [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].
多重利好驱动,油脂油料偏强运行
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:58
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Bullish Oscillation | | Protein Meal | Oscillation | | Corn and Starch | Bearish Oscillation | | Hogs | Oscillation | | Natural Rubber and 20 - rubber | Oscillation | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillation | | Cotton | Bullish Oscillation | | Sugar | Oscillation | | Pulp | Oscillation | | Logs | Bearish Oscillation | [7][8][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple favorable factors drive the oils and fats market to run strongly. Protein meal is affected by emotions and supply pressure. Corn shows signs of restocking downstream. Hog futures are expected to correct. Rubber experiences a pull - back after a rise. Synthetic rubber has limited variables. Pulp is considered bullish in the short - term. Cotton prices are boosted by a reduction in US cotton production. Sugar prices rebound due to supply expectation adjustments. Logs are affected by new warehouse receipt pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: USDA's August report unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, increased the yield per acre by 1.1 bushels to 53.6 bushels, and cut the expected yield by 1.16 million tons to 116.82 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons [1][7]. - **Logic**: Multiple factors contributed to the rise of domestic oils. From a macro perspective, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the US - China tariff policy is extended. From an industrial perspective, the reduction in US soybean area and production, lower - than - expected palm oil inventory in Malaysia, and anti - dumping rulings on Canadian rapeseed are positive. However, US soybean growth is good, and palm oil is in the production season [2][7]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is likely to continue to run strongly in the near future [3][7]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 13, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also increased [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season is tightening. Domestically, there is short - term inventory pressure, but long - term demand is expected to increase. The anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is positive for the far - month [8]. - **Outlook**: The market pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weakness and far - term strength will continue. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low prices [8]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: The prices of corn in Jinzhou Port and the domestic average showed small changes. The closing price of the main contract increased [10]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable to weak, with supply inventory being digested and demand being weak. There are signs of restocking in South China ports. New - season corn production is normal [10]. - **Outlook**: There is uncertainty in the short - term due to old - crop de - stocking, and there is a downward drive after new - crop listing [10]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 13, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased slightly, and the futures price decreased [11]. - **Logic**: After the end of the symposium, the market hype subsided. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume increases. In the medium - term, the supply will increase. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog futures market fluctuates greatly. The spot and near - term have high - weight inventory pressure, while the far - term has a bullish expectation. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Cambodia's latex exports decreased in the first 7 months of 2025 [14]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices adjusted after a rise. It is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid [14]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed increases [16]. - **Logic**: The BR futures followed natural rubber to adjust. It is affected by natural rubber sentiment and raw material cost support. The supply of butadiene is tight, and downstream demand is good [16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the futures may run strongly in an oscillatory manner [16]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the number of registered warehouse receipts and the closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The USDA report cut US cotton production, tightening global supply. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. The suspension of tariffs boosts market confidence [17]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly before new - flower listing [17]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts increased [18]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short - term, supply pressure increases seasonally, but the rebound of the external market supports the domestic market [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices have a downward drive; in the short - term, they are expected to run in the range of 5600 - 5900 [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong increased [18]. - **Logic**: The pulp fundamentals are weak, with high supply and weak demand overseas. However, the price is at a low level, and the negative factors have been fully priced in [18]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [18]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price weakened due to new warehouse receipt pressure. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. There is a marginal improvement in fundamentals [20]. - **Outlook**: The log futures are expected to run in the range of 800 - 850 [20].
美国农业部期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250729
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, night - session soybean and rapeseed meals showed weak and volatile trends. The overall growth of US soybeans is good, but trade uncertainties make the export outlook of US soybeans worrying, causing the futures price of US soybeans to decline. Considering trade tariff uncertainties, the global soybean - related prices are expected to rise in Q4, and the room for further decline in soybean meal prices is limited [2]. - For oils, night - session oils closed up with volatility. The latest fundamental data from Indonesia is positive, and the head of the Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategy Bureau of the Indonesian Ministry of Finance expects an increase in palm oil product exports to the EU in H2 2025, which will boost palm oil export demand and support palm oil prices. In Malaysia, the latest production and export data are negative in the short - term, but with the support of biodiesel policies in various countries, the medium - and long - term price center of oils is expected to slowly move up [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8120, 8946, and 9406 respectively, with changes of - 24, 10, and - 51 and percentage changes of - 0.29%, 0.11%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2990, 2647, and 8844 respectively, with changes of - 31, - 23, and 26 and percentage changes of - 1.03%, - 0.86%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: For spreads like Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1, the current values are 44, 14, and 49 respectively, compared with previous values of 40, 8, and 56. For ratios - spreads such as M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09, the current values are - 51, 267, and 330 respectively, compared with previous values of - 38, 270, and 346 [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4258 (ringgit/ton), 1012 (cents/bu), 56 (cents/lb), and 279 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 14, - 10, 0, and - 2 and percentage changes of 0.33%, - 1.00%, 0.09%, and - 0.82% respectively [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of domestic spot products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil are 8260, 8310, and 9070 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.36%, - 0.36%, and - 0.33%. For spot products like Nantong soybean meal, Dongguan soybean meal, and Nantong rapeseed meal, the current prices are 2870, 2890, and 2560 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.70%, and - 0.78% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis values for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil are 140, 190, and 124 respectively. The current spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil are - 670 and 1350 respectively [1]. Import and Crushing Profits - The current import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, and near - month Brazilian soybeans are - 437, - 271, and - 165 respectively, compared with previous values of - 526, - 249, and - 76 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipt values for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 21,495, 0, and 3,487 respectively, remaining the same as the previous values [1]. Industry Information - As of the week ending July 24, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 409,714 tons, compared with 377,020 tons (revised) in the previous week [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 73%, in line with market expectations [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250721
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic supply glut will still pressure the upside space of protein meal, but it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short - term due to import cost support. For oils and fats, the fundamentals have limited changes, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties were 8072, 8796, etc. with corresponding price changes and percentage changes. For example, soybean oil rose 30 with a 0.37% increase, and palm oil rose 74 with a 0.85% increase. There were also changes in spreads and ratios. [1] - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures such as BMD palm oil were 4158, with price changes and percentage changes. For example, BMD palm oil rose 49 with a 1.19% increase. [1] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current spot prices of domestic products like Tianjin first - grade soybean oil were 8230, with corresponding percentage changes. For example, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil rose 0.24%. There were also data on spot basis and spot spreads. [1] Import and Profit - The current values of import profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 417, - 248, etc., with changes compared to the previous values. [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, etc. were 22,131, 854, etc., with changes compared to the previous values. [1] Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased by 3.5% compared to the same period last month according to ITS data. The Canadian rapeseed crop had different excellent - good rates in different provinces. [2] Comments and Strategies - **Protein Meal**: The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, reducing the soybean tariff from 32% to 19%, and Indonesia will purchase 4.5 billion US dollars of US agricultural products. The improvement of Sino - US trade relations is expected to increase, and the US soybean price is supported by the biodiesel policy. The domestic supply is loose, but the continuous meal is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. [2] - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report this month was neutral to bearish, but the high - frequency data showed a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. Indian imports increased sharply, especially palm oil imports which increased by 60% in June. Palm oil prices are expected to be supported, and the overall oils and fats are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. [2]