Workflow
油脂油料市场
icon
Search documents
油脂油料早报-20250618
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 04:02
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - Anec data shows Brazil's soybean export volume in a certain month is expected to be 1,437 million tons, 2% higher than the previous week's forecast and over 50 million tons more than last year; the expected export volume of Brazilian soybean meal is 197 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from the previous week's forecast [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production in a certain month reached 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase, the highest in the same period since 2015 due to favorable weather; exports soared 25.62% to 1.38 million tons, mainly driven by strong demand from China and India, and the export momentum is expected to continue until the third quarter; short - term production may slow down and production activities in a certain month are expected to decrease [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Export Sales - A private exporter reported the sale of 120,000 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to an unknown destination for shipment in the 2025/2026 market year [1] Brazil's Exports - Brazil's soybean export volume in a certain month is expected to be 1,437 million tons, 2% higher than the previous week's forecast, and over 50 million tons more than last year; the expected export volume of soybean meal is 197 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from the previous week's forecast [1] Malaysia's Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production in a certain month reached 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase, the highest in the same period since 2015; exports increased by 25.62% (+283,000 tons) to 1.38 million tons, mainly due to strong demand from China and India; short - term production may slow down and production activities in a certain month are expected to decrease [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are provided [2] Basis - Protein meal basis and oil basis are mentioned, but no specific data is provided [3] Futures Spread - The term "oil and oilseed futures spread" is mentioned, but no specific content is provided
油脂油料早报-20250609
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 03:33
1. Market Information - As of the week ending June 1st, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 9.4% to 175,100 tons compared with the previous week, and from August 1st, 2024, to June 1st, 2025, exports reached 8.5237 million tons, a 60.1% increase year-on-year. The commercial inventory of rapeseed in Canada as of June 1st was 970,500 tons [1] - From June 1st - 5th, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% month-on-month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 19.16% and oil extraction rate down 0.01% [1] - As of June 5th, the harvest rate of Argentina's 2024/25 soybean crop was 91%, lower than 94% in the same period last year [1] - Brazilian producers have sold 64% of their expected 2024/25 soybean output, over 11 billion tons, with sales delayed. Sales increased by 7 percentage points but were lower than last year's 71.8% and the five - year average of 76.9%. For the next year, 10.8% of expected output has been pre - sold, compared with 14.6% last year and an average of 20.6% [1] 2. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from May 30th to June 6th, 2025, are provided, showing fluctuations in prices during this period [3] 3. Other Information - Information on protein meal basis, oil basis, and oil and oilseed futures spreads is mentioned, but no specific data is given [4]
油脂油料早报-20250529
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 03:34
램曾良H 品 图片 品質H 器员H 唱总员H 品 图片 品ରH RBH 唱总员H 品ରH | 临息员|H 唱点资讯 品 图IH 唱片图片 据启窗H 品员H 品 澳门 COD 憑点資訊 COD 原点资讯 CDD 翡点资讯 COD JURCE POINT COD JE REE POINT COD 張卓資訊 COD 張点资訊 CD COD 張点资訊 COD 原点资讯 COD 原点资讯 COO JE SOURCE POINT □○□ 順点资讯 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/05/29 隔夜市场信息: nan 月毛棕榈油参考价格下调至每吨 印尼贸易部公布的一项监管规定显示,印尼已将 月份的毛棕榈油参考价格下调至每吨856. 38美元。 在新参考价格下, 月毛棕榈油出口关税将为52美元/吨,低于上个月的每吨74美元。 加拿大油菜籽产量料为 ●一份大宗商品研究报告显示,2025/26年度加拿大油菜籽产量预估下调1%,至1,800万吨,由于萨斯喀彻温省和马尼恩总 托巴省核心种植区的土壤水分状况继续恶化,尽管 月初出现了有益的降雨。 报告显示,加拿大油菜籽种植面积预估为859万公顷,较上年度减少3.5%,比加拿大 ...
2025二季度生猪及饲料市场展望
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 07:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of the pig market continues to put pressure on pig prices, but the decline in the first quarter was weaker than expected. The second quarter will continue to focus on supply pressure, and there is a risk of compression in pig prices and breeding profits [3][4]. - Policy support for the corn market is nearing its end, and in the fourth quarter, it will be tested whether downstream consumption can support prices [5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the global oilseed and fat market first rose and then fell, with the domestic market outperforming the international market. The second quarter will continue to be troubled by trade uncertainties, and attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents First Part: Factors Affecting the Pig Market in the Second Quarter - Pig prices in the first quarter were stronger than expected, but supply pressure still exists. The terminal demand entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and pig prices oscillated at a low level [3][4]. - Affected by the change in the mentality of the breeding side, the price of piglets first rose, then fell, and then rose again in the first quarter [3]. - The inventory of breeding sows decreased for two consecutive months. If this trend continues, the supply pressure in the second half of the year will be substantially improved [3]. - In the first quarter, the slaughter weight of pigs first decreased and then increased. The import volume of pork decreased as domestic pig prices were at a low level [3][4]. - The breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising decreased, while that of purchasing piglets increased. The slaughter opening rate was higher than the same period last year, but it was not driven by the increase in terminal demand [4]. - In the futures market, pig prices stabilized and rebounded in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply pressure of increased inventory will continue to affect spot pig prices and long - term trading sentiment [4]. Second Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Corn Market - From January to March, the prices of US wheat and corn first rose and then fell. Affected by weather, policy, and other factors, the CBOT grain futures prices declined jointly [5]. - The spot price of domestic corn rose with the futures price. By the end of March, the average domestic corn spot price increased by 163 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of January. After mid - March, due to multiple negative factors, the futures and spot prices of corn fell back [5]. - The 5 - month contract of corn oscillated repeatedly at the 2300 - yuan integer mark, and the market was worried about the lack of upward space in the future. Pay attention to the price performance of the 5 - month corn futures price at the previous support level of 2260 [6]. - The supply of new - season corn is expected to increase, and the inventory in the quarterly report at the end of March decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period. The ratio of US soybeans to corn is at a low level, which is conducive to the expansion of corn planting area [15][29][39]. - Affected by policies and other factors, the import of corn and its substitutes decreased in 2025, which increased the consumption of domestic corn. In the second quarter, the problem of limited supply of imported corn and substitutes will still appear periodically [52]. - In early April, the average price of wheat in the main producing areas decreased. The price of wheat followed the rise of corn in March and continued to oscillate weakly in April. The supply of wheat was relatively abundant, and the downstream demand was weak [55]. - In mid - April, the operating rate of the corn starch industry decreased, and the processing in Shandong was in a state of loss. The contradiction in the starch market was prominent, and the support from the demand side was insufficient [56]. Third Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Soybean Meal Market - The global oilseed and fat trade pattern has changed. Brazil supplies soybeans to China, the EU, etc., the US supplies soybeans to other regions, and Canadian rapeseed competes for the US soybean market [105]. - China's pig industry has strong demand for replenishment, which increases the demand for feed. The price is strong in stages, and the supply pressure is postponed [112]. - From January to February 2025, the feed output increased year - on - year, and the consumption of soybean meal also increased [116]. - The inventory of soybeans in China showed an inflection point in April, but the soybean procurement of oil mills from June to September was slow [119]. - The spot basis of soybean meal weakened, and the inter - month spread changed from backwardation to contango [121]. Fourth Part: Outlook for the Future Market - In the second quarter, pay attention to tariffs and weather for the US corn market. The policy support of CGC is nearing its end, and it will be tested whether downstream demand can accept high - priced raw materials [66][68]. - Russia's corn production has decreased, and the toxin content in domestic corn is high. The CBOT corn has emerged from the trough. In the future, Sino - US relations will determine the country of import and the rhythm [70]. - In the first quarter, the price of US corn rebounded to the profit range. The market expects an increase in the sown area of new - season corn, and the area will be confirmed in June [77]. - In the first quarter, the spot price of corn rebounded, and the futures price followed. The basis of the 3 - month and 5 - month contracts returned to normal. In the second quarter, the market will speculate on the sowing and cost changes of new - season grain [84]. - In 2024, the cost of corn planting decreased by 15 - 20%. The market expects the cost of corn planting in the new year to decrease by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [90]. - The by - products of starch rose and fell alternately. In 2024, the spread between starch and corn mainly widened. In 2025, pay attention to starch exports and the substitution of tapioca starch [97]. - In 2024, the supply of corn exceeded demand, and the price declined all the way. In 2025, it remains to be seen whether the strengthening of supply and demand can drive the price to rise continuously [102].