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华富基金何嘉楠: 票息策略打底 把握波段操作机会
Group 1 - The bond market has faced significant challenges in 2023, with fund managers focusing on maintaining stable net value curves and market predictions [1][4] - Future bond yields are unlikely to replicate the significant decline seen in 2022, with duration strategies expected to weaken marginally, making coupon strategies a more stable choice [1][4] - Recent adjustments in deposit rates by domestic banks have led to cautious investor sentiment regarding the bond market, with concerns over profit-taking and pressure on bank liabilities [2][3] Group 2 - Credit bonds have outperformed interest rate bonds recently, driven by a shift of funds from bank deposits to wealth management products due to lower deposit rates [2] - The performance of interest rate bonds has been lackluster, influenced by rapid market movements and weak expectations for short-term liquidity easing [2][4] - Future bond market dynamics will depend on fundamental economic conditions and the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) policy expectations, including potential resumption of government bond purchases [3][5] Group 3 - In a low-interest-rate environment, fund managers need to adopt more refined strategies, focusing on individual bonds and optimizing portfolio structures to maximize risk-return ratios [4][6] - The newly launched fund by the company, which has a 12-month holding period, aims to leverage a stable liability structure and employ a yield curve riding strategy to enhance positive returns [4][5]
2025年中期信用债展望:供求支撑下的波段与品种增厚
HTSC· 2025-06-06 10:52
Group 1: Credit Bond Strategy - The credit bond market is expected to continue in a volatile state, with a focus on interest rate strategies and band trading being more favorable than pure selection of varieties [5][38] - The strategy suggests focusing on short to medium-term credit bonds and high-grade long-term bonds to seek opportunities for interest rate compression [5][38] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in high-grade bonds from local government financing vehicles, real estate, and stable industries during market adjustments [5][38] Group 2: Local Government Financing Bonds - The transformation of local government financing vehicles is entering a complex phase, with potential pricing discrepancies as platforms adapt to new regulations [2][43] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to remain low due to strict regulatory oversight and the ongoing transition of platforms [2][43] - Focus on short to medium-term bonds from regions with stable cash flows, particularly in Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Henan, is recommended [2] Group 3: Financial Bonds and Varieties - High-grade perpetual bonds can be traded in response to interest rate fluctuations, but the trading space is limited and requires high trading standards [3][39] - The strategy includes focusing on high-grade bonds with a maturity of 3-5 years for stable institutions, while actively trading lower-grade bonds during market adjustments [3][39] - The expansion of TLAC non-capital instruments and their comparison with secondary capital bonds is highlighted as an area of interest [3][39] Group 4: Industrial Bonds - Industrial bonds have shown some recovery in profitability, but performance remains varied across sectors, with strong performance in automotive, machinery, and utilities, while real estate and construction sectors lag [4] - The recommendation is to focus on high-quality state-owned enterprises and stable private enterprises for medium-term investments [4] Group 5: Real Estate Bonds - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a recommendation to focus on high-grade bonds from state-owned enterprises while monitoring the recovery of the sector [4] - The potential for policy support in the real estate market could enhance recovery in core cities, but caution is advised for lower-tier cities [4] Group 6: Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) and Public REITs - The market for consumer finance ABS is expanding, with opportunities for variety exploration in a volatile market [3][39] - Public REITs are recommended to balance opportunities in both primary and secondary markets, focusing on stable projects [3][39]