Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on September 26, closing at $3780.42 per ounce after reaching a high of $3783.74 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 8.87 tons, bringing the total to 1005.72 tons [8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, matching market expectations, while the year-on-year rate remained at 2.9% [3] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for September fell to 55.1, below the expected 55.4, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment due to concerns over high prices and the job market [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated that the neutral interest rate is expected to be in the range of 3%-4% and favors a gradual approach to rate adjustments [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 10.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.3% [8] Geopolitical Developments - Reports suggest that former President Trump is open to relaxing restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S. long-range weapons against targets in Russia, although no specific commitments were made [6] - Hamas has not received new proposals from mediators regarding negotiations with Israel, following a recent assassination incident [7]

Core Insights - Consumer spending continues to support the U.S. economy, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showing steady growth despite rising tariffs and inflation pressures [1][3] Economic Indicators - The PCE index increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August, up from 0.2% in July, while the year-on-year increase rose to 2.7% from 2.6% [2] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2] - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity, grew by 0.6% in August, marking the third consecutive month of growth [2][3] Sector Performance - Service prices rose by 0.3%, driven by increases in air travel, hotel accommodations, financial services, and utilities, contributing to PCE inflation [2] - Spending in transportation and dining out has increased, indicating a robust consumer demand in the service sector [3] Income Growth - Personal income rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, with wage growth outpacing inflation, enhancing purchasing power [3] GDP Growth - Strong consumer spending contributed to a 3.8% annualized growth rate in GDP for the second quarter, the fastest in nearly two years, with third-quarter GDP growth expectations around 2.5% [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The latest data may bolster the Federal Reserve's confidence in further rate cuts, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in October [5] - The Fed's decision will depend on upcoming employment and consumer price reports, with inflation remaining a critical concern [5][6]

Group 1 - The latest inflation data favored by the Federal Reserve shows that consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by 0.4% last month [1] - The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% from July, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2] - The overall annual inflation rate slightly increased to 2.7% from 2.6% in July [2] Group 2 - Consumer spending growth of 0.7% reflects increased consumption in discretionary items such as furniture, clothing, and sporting goods, while service spending rose at a relatively moderate pace [5] - Despite evidence showing that tariffs have pushed up some prices and a cooling labor market, consumers, especially high-income groups, continue to spend [5] - The savings rate has dropped to 4.6%, the lowest this year, indicating potential concerns about future consumer spending sustainability [5] Group 3 - Following the report, U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 300 points [4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in October are strong, but enthusiasm for further action in December is weaker [5] - Analysts suggest that inflation is stable enough to withstand lower interest rates, predicting another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [6]

Core Viewpoint - The latest inflation data favored by the Federal Reserve shows a slight increase in overall inflation, with core PCE remaining stable, indicating a mixed economic outlook and potential challenges for future monetary policy [3][4]. Economic Indicators - Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased by 0.4% last month [2]. - The core PCE price index rose by 0.2% from July, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [3]. - Overall annual inflation rate rose slightly from 2.6% in July [4]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending on goods grew by 0.7%, driven by increases in discretionary items like furniture and clothing [7]. - Retail sales in August rose for the third consecutive month, partly due to back-to-school shopping [7]. - Despite strong consumer spending, there are concerns about the sustainability of this momentum given the softening labor market and stagnant real disposable income [7]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Some Federal Reserve officials are hesitant about further rate cuts due to inflation remaining above the 2% target [4]. - The market shows strong bets on a rate cut in October, but less enthusiasm for further action in December [7]. - The recent rate cut of 25 basis points brought the target range for the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25% [7][10]. Market Reaction - Following the report, U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones rising over 300 points, and international gold prices also saw a short-term increase [5].

Core Viewpoint - The PCE report indicates strong consumer spending growth, exceeding expectations, which aligns with the recently revised GDP report showing increased consumer expenditure [1] Economic Indicators - Both overall and core inflation data met expectations, providing reassurance as these are key indicators closely monitored by the Federal Reserve [1] - The rise in consumer spending, coupled with inflation data meeting expectations, suggests a stable economic environment [1] Market Reactions - Recent stock market volatility is partly attributed to strong economic growth, raising concerns that this may limit future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts has been a significant factor in the market rebound since April 8 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the US indicates that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure remains above the target, posing challenges for its decision-making amid a weakening labor market [1] Economic Indicators - In August, consumer prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, leading to a year-on-year PCE inflation rate of 2.7%, up from 2.6% in the previous month [1] - The core inflation measure remains steady at 2.9%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [1] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, a key pillar of the economy, showed resilience in August with a growth rate of 0.6%, surpassing July's growth of 0.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the pressure faced by low-income groups, consumer spending remains healthy according to Goldman Sachs' president [1] Group 1 - The low-income demographic is experiencing certain financial pressures [1] - Overall consumer spending trends indicate resilience and stability in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing downside risks in the labor market were a key reason for the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is seen as a shift towards a "neutral" policy stance [1] - Future policy directions are not predetermined, indicating a flexible approach to economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Current inflation levels remain slightly above the target, with the August core PCE inflation rate expected to be 2.3% [1] - The rise in goods prices is primarily attributed to tariff impacts rather than widespread inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Consumer and Business Sentiment - Signs of slowing consumer spending have been observed, alongside weakened business confidence due to uncertainty [1] - The vitality of the labor market is showing signs of decline, which may further impact economic growth [1] Group 4: Future Inflation Outlook - Tariffs are expected to potentially lead to a rise in inflation over the next few quarters, although this inflation may be "relatively transient" [1] - The Federal Reserve aims to prevent one-time price increases from evolving into a persistent inflation issue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barkin highlighted that low unemployment rates, wage growth, and rising stock prices are supporting consumer spending [1] Group 1 - Low unemployment rates are contributing positively to consumer confidence and spending [1] - Wage growth is enhancing disposable income for consumers, further driving spending [1] - Rising stock prices are creating a wealth effect, encouraging consumers to spend more [1]

八月，美国零售销售数据延续增长态势，连续第三个月实现上升，为今年夏季美国消费市场的稳健表现画上句号。根据美国商务部周二发布的报告，未经通 胀调整的零售销售额环比增长百分之零点六，与七月增幅基本持平。若排除汽车类别，当月零售销售额增长百分之零点七。 尽管面临关税推高部分商品价格、消费者信心持续低迷及劳动力市场显露疲态等多重压力，美国消费者仍展现出较强的支出意愿。报告指出，虽然整体工资 增速放缓，但许多劳动者的收入增幅仍高于通胀水平。此外，美股的上升也为部分群体——尤其是高收入家庭——带来额外收益，进一步支撑消费能力。 作为占美国经济活动约三分之二的关键部分，消费者支出始终是美联储重点监测的指标。当前，货币政策制定者正密切关注零售动态及就业市场状况，以评 估下一步利率政策的调整方向。尽管美国实施的关税政策对最终物价的影响尚待全面评估，市场普遍预期美联储将在周三结束的议息会议上宣布降息，以防 范劳动力市场可能出现的进一步疲软。 在统计覆盖的十三个零售类别中，共有九类实现正向增长。其中，线上零售商、服装店及体育用品商店的销售表现最为突出，分析认为这与返校季带来的需 求密切相关。相比之下，汽车虽维持增长，但速度有所放缓 ...