9月23日，港股市场震荡调整，三大指数早盘高开后持续走弱，尾盘跌幅收窄。今年以来港股市场流动 性持续增强，再融资规模较去年翻倍，南向资金累计净流入超1.1万亿港元。多家机构认为，美联储降 息将释放宽松流动性，AI产业仍为港股核心主线，恒生科技板块潜力凸显。展望未来，港股市场将保 持震荡向上趋势。（中国证券报） ...

Group 1 - The global IPO market is slowing down entering the third quarter, with the financing scale of the top ten global IPOs expected to be lower compared to the same period last year [1] - Hong Kong Stock Exchange is projected to maintain its position as the global leader in IPO financing due to six large IPOs during the period [1] - The A-share market in China is showing steady growth in new stock numbers and financing amounts, with expectations for this trend to continue until the end of the year, driven by government support for technology and innovation sectors [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that 78 new stocks will be listed in the mainland A-share market by September 30, 2025, raising 77.1 billion RMB, marking a 13% increase in the number of new stocks and a 61% increase in financing compared to the same period last year [1] - The ChiNext board leads in the number of new stocks, while the Shanghai main board has the highest total financing among various boards, with 25 new stocks expected to raise 45.4 billion RMB [1] - In Hong Kong, 66 new stocks are expected to be listed, raising 182.3 billion HKD, a 47% increase in the number of new stocks and a 228% increase in financing compared to the same period last year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent significant market correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3800, and a notable decline in the brokerage sector, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [2]. - Goldman Sachs suggests that the end of the bull market in China's stock market is typically not due to high valuations but rather sudden policy shocks, and unless there is a clear speculative bubble, the likelihood of policy actively suppressing the market is low [3][8]. - The article discusses the reasons behind the recent rise in the Chinese stock market, including expectations of economic recovery and advancements in AI, as well as improved Sino-U.S. relations and a rebound in Hong Kong IPOs [5]. Group 2 - The current bull market in China is characterized as different from other markets, with the Chinese stock market still below its 2021 highs, suggesting room for valuation increases [6]. - The foundation for a "slow bull" market in A-shares appears stronger than ever, driven by market reforms, the introduction of long-term capital, and stricter leverage regulations [7]. - Historical analysis indicates that valuation changes have been the primary driver of returns in bull markets, contributing approximately 80% of realized gains, with current valuations still below historical bull market peaks [7]. Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has developed a new "stock market policy barometer" to monitor policy risks, which currently indicates low levels of policy tightening risk for the stock market [8]. - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, as household asset allocation is heavily skewed towards real estate and cash, with only 11% in stocks [9][10]. - The article notes that since 2020, households have accumulated substantial savings, with over 80 trillion yuan in new deposits, and a shift in asset allocation could lead to trillions flowing into the stock market [10]. Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of the brokerage sector as a leverage amplifier for the market, suggesting that investors should consider accumulating shares during market corrections to benefit from future rallies [12].

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight increase this week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.43%, the Hang Seng Composite Index by 0.59%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.09%, driven primarily by technology stocks [3][13] - The performance of major industry sectors was mixed, with consumer discretionary and information technology sectors leading the gains, reflecting the strong performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index [3][13] - The financial and real estate sectors saw declines of approximately 3% each, while other sectors such as materials and utilities also experienced declines of over 2% [3][13] Valuation Levels - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stands at 82.82%, indicating that the valuation level is above the 5-year average [3] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was HKD 3.89 billion, remaining stable compared to the previous week's HKD 3.81 billion [27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of HKD 2.75 billion, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with HKD 640 million, and Hang Seng Bank (0011.HK) with HKD 100 million [27][30] Southbound Fund Flow - The top net buy companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net buy amount of HKD 22.25 billion, BeiGene (6160.HK) with HKD 2.02 billion, and Meituan (3690.HK) with HKD 1.66 billion [34] - The top net sell companies included Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a net sell amount of HKD 1.95 billion, Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with HKD 1.29 billion, and Great Wall Motor (2333.HK) with HKD 768 million [35] Macroeconomic Environment - The overall economic activity data for August continued to weaken compared to the previous month, influenced by high base effects, internal competition, the decline of national subsidies, and cooling real estate activity [44] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that fixed asset investment from January to August reached CNY 3.26 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% [39][44] - The macro policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting consumption are still being advanced, with expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [44] Sector Outlook - The report favors sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][44] - Low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price are also seen as favorable, along with local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks that are relatively independent and benefit from the interest rate cut cycle [3][44]

在凤凰湾区财经论坛2025前夕，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院实践教授胡捷表示，美联储进入宽松周 期对全球金融资产总体利好，更多资金涌入市场将提供价格支撑，美股长期流动性增强。他指出，A 股、港股等其它市场也会受到积极带动。更宽松的流动性环境鼓舞各国投资者，促使更多资金进入投资 市场。 ...

Group 1: Apple - Apple shares rose over 1.7% following Morgan Stanley's target price increase from $255 to $280 [2] - The domestic launch of the iPhone 17 on September 19 was highly successful, with significant demand observed [2] - Popular models included the 256GB silver and orange iPhone Pro Max, with scalpers willing to pay a premium of 400 to 500 yuan for them [2] Group 2: Tesla - Tesla shares increased nearly 3% after Baird upgraded its stock rating to "outperform" [4] - Baird raised Tesla's target price from $320 to $548, citing the company's potential role in the upcoming "physical AI" era [4] Group 3: Chinese Tech Stocks - Alibaba shares rose by 1.31%, while JD.com saw an increase of over 1.6%, with JD's beauty segment expected to achieve double-digit growth in the first half of 2025 [6] - NIO's stock rose nearly 3% ahead of its 2025 NIO Day event, where it will unveil a special edition of its ET9 flagship sedan and the third-generation ES8 SUV [8] - XPeng's shares increased over 1.7%, reporting over 24,702 vehicle deliveries in 46 countries from January to August 2025, a year-on-year growth of over 137% [9] Group 4: Autonomous Driving and AI - Pony.ai shares surged nearly 8% after the CFO announced expectations to achieve key profitability targets by early 2026 [10] - Pony.ai plans to launch 1,000 autonomous taxis globally by the end of the year [10] Group 5: Gold Market - Gold prices rose, with spot gold reaching $3,670 per ounce, an increase of 0.85% [11] Group 6: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25% [13] - This rate cut is expected to positively impact Chinese assets, with institutions suggesting a focus on A-shares and H-shares [15][16] - The improved liquidity environment is seen as a key reason for optimism regarding Chinese assets [17]

Core Viewpoint - The significant stock price movements in A-shares on September 19 were primarily driven by the adjustments in the FTSE China A50 Index, which took effect after the market closed on that day [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Movements - Several stocks, including Xinyi Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, WuXi AppTec, and BeiGene, experienced notable price increases during the closing auction period [2][1]. - Conversely, stocks such as China Nuclear Power, China Unicom, and Wanhua Chemical saw substantial declines, with China Nuclear Power dropping nearly 2 percentage points [4][1]. Group 2: Index Adjustments - The FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China A50 Index, which included the addition of stocks like Xinyi Technology and WuXi AppTec, while removing China Nuclear Power and China Unicom [6][1]. - The FTSE China A50 Index consists of the 50 largest stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges and undergoes quarterly reviews [6][1]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The adjustments in the FTSE indices prompted index funds and institutional investors to rebalance their portfolios, leading to the observed stock price volatility [1][6]. - The market showed a clear divergence in performance, with sectors like photolithography, lithium mining, and engineering machinery gaining strength, while others faced significant corrections [2][1]. Group 4: Broader Market Context - The overall A-share market experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.30% and the Shenzhen Component down by 0.04% [2][1]. - In the Hong Kong market, stocks such as Fourth Paradigm and SF Holding also exhibited significant movements, influenced by similar index adjustments [7][1]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Chinese stock market may see further prosperity driven by valuation and liquidity factors, maintaining a positive outlook on both A-shares and H-shares [7][8]. - Focus areas include core growth sectors in Hong Kong, particularly in internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and technology [8][1].

多位受访分析人士称美联储重启降息通道不仅提振全球风险偏好，更显著改善新兴市场流动性预期，预 计A股与港股市场将迎来风险偏好修复与外资回流的双重利好。受访分析人士表示，从结构性机会看， 科技成长、低波红利及部分景气度回升的板块值得关注，四季度市场或呈现"政策驱动+盈利改善"双向 支撑下的震荡上行态势。浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博表示，当前市场流动性正逐渐放宽，预计央 行将继续维持市场流动性充裕，充裕的流动性将推动股市、债市表现向好。（中证报） ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% on September 17 [1] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets reacted positively, with all three major indices turning red, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 4% [1] - Over 2100 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets saw gains [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry chain experienced significant gains, with companies like SMIC and Haiguang Information both rising over 6% and reaching historical highs [2] - Other semiconductor stocks such as Ruixin Micro and Huicheng Shares saw increases of over 10% [2][5] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose over 3%, with constituent stocks like Zhongwei Company and Haiguang Information increasing by over 8% and 7% respectively [3] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index surpassed the 27,000-point mark, reaching its highest level since July 2021 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a preventive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has highlighted the value of core asset allocation in the Hong Kong stock market [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve's past interest rate cuts have significantly boosted the Hong Kong stock market in the short term, with the exception of the unique circumstances in 2019 and 2020 [1][3]. - The current economic conditions in the U.S. show signs of cooling employment but resilient economic fundamentals, indicating that the rate cut aims to address potential risks [1][4]. - Market expectations for a 25bps or 50bps rate cut in September are at 89% and 11%, respectively, with a general forecast of 2-3 rate cuts in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Impact on Hong Kong Stock Market - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on the Hong Kong stock market is characterized by two types: preventive and relief cuts, with different effects on foreign capital flows [2][3]. - In preventive rate cuts, the resilience of the U.S. economy may suppress the liquidity easing effects, leading to limited foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong [2]. - Conversely, relief rate cuts may initially attract foreign capital due to a weakening U.S. economy, but long-term outflows may occur due to declining global risk appetite [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current preventive rate cut is expected to provide marginal support to the Hong Kong stock market, particularly benefiting growth sectors such as technology, consumer discretionary, and pharmaceuticals [4]. - The potential for synchronized monetary easing between the U.S. and China could lead to increased foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks, especially as active foreign capital has been returning to China since August [4]. - The allocation of foreign capital to Chinese assets remains low at 7.0%, indicating significant room for growth as China's economic stabilization policies take effect [4].