Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a gradual emergence of cost support. The industry is awaiting favorable policy changes to restore confidence [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The coal mining market is experiencing a narrow adjustment with slight supply tightening in major production areas. Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs [13] - Port inventories are continuously decreasing, but there is still a lack of upward momentum in prices due to limited demand from downstream buyers [14] - The shipping market has seen a slight increase in the number of vessels at northern ports, indicating some recovery in logistics [27] Key Companies - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Xinji Energy (601918.SH), all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [9] - China Shenhua is highlighted as a central enterprise with strong performance, while companies like Qinfa and New Hope Energy are noted for their potential turnaround [10] Price Movements - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the port is reported at 620 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. However, the market is characterized by a lack of strong demand from power plants, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [37] - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in various grades, indicating a bearish market sentiment [40][53] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the coal industry will maintain its critical role in China's energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with a potential increase in industry concentration [37]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The coal market currently has an overall ample supply. Although the coal price at ports continues to decline, the decline is expected to gradually slow down as the temperature rises and power plants increase their inventory replenishment. The demand for chemical coal in the pit - mouth area is fair, but the support from power plant long - term contracts is weakening [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On May 21, the port market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with traders' quotes weakly stable. For example, the 5500 - calorie market was quoted at 615 - 620 yuan/ton, and different regions had different price ranges for various coal calorific values [3]. Important News - In April, the total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. The electricity consumption of the first, second, third industries and urban and rural residents all increased to varying degrees [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: The pit - mouth price continued to decline, and the coal mine operating rate in the main producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia decreased. As of May 20, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 68%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was around 3.9 - 4 million tons, and the overall domestic supply was still abundant. The imported coal price followed the decline of the domestic coal price [5]. - **Demand**: The current power load was only maintained at about 60%, and some power plants' inventories were saturated, so power plants' procurement strategies were cautious. The cement operating rate at the non - power end was low, while the operating rates of coal - to - methanol and coal - to - urea were high, and the demand for chemical coal was fair [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was high, and the port began to restrict coal loading. The daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line decreased to 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by the Hohhot Railway Bureau decreased to around 30. As of May 21, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was around 29.76 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons from the high level, but still high. The daily consumption of coastal power plants was low, and the inventory reduction was slow. The total inventory of national power plants remained at a high level in the same period of previous years, and the inventory reduction speed was slow [5]. - **Overall situation**: In late May, the coal production in the main producing areas was stable, and the overall supply was still relatively abundant. Power plants' inventory reduction was slow, and due to the impact of imported coal, power plants only maintained rigid - demand procurement. The port inventory increased passively, and the available resources for sale were abundant. The port FOB price continued to decline, but the decline was expected to slow down [5].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 煤炭日报 2025 年 5 月 7 日 煤炭日报 【市场回顾】 现货市场：5 月 7 日，港口市场看跌情绪浓厚，贸易商报价维持偏弱，现 5500 大卡 市场报价 650 元/吨，5000 大卡市场报价 570-580 元/吨，4500 大卡市场报价 515 元/吨； 内蒙地区非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤炭含税价在 420 - 460 元/吨，5000 大卡煤炭价格在 350 - 390 元/吨，4500 大卡煤炭价格则在 270 - 310 元/吨；榆林地区非电企业用煤 6000 大卡煤价格区间为 510-540 元/吨，5800 大卡煤价格区间为 485-515 元/吨；山西非电企 业用煤 5500 大卡煤种的含税价格处于 460 - 510 元/吨，5000 大卡煤种价格为 400 - 450 元/吨，4500 大卡煤种价格则在 340 - 390 元/吨之间。江内港口 5500 大卡动力煤报价在 695-710 元/吨，5000 大卡动力煤报价 610-625 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1-3 月，全国各电力交易中心累计组织完成市场交易电量 14574.8 亿千瓦时，同比 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 煤炭日报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 煤炭日报 【市场回顾】 现货市场：4 月 28 日，下游客户采购积极性较低，港口贸易商报价小幅松动，现 5500 大卡市场报价 660-665 元/吨，5000 大卡市场报价 580-585 元/吨，4500 大卡市场报 价 520 元/吨；内蒙地区非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤炭含税价维持在 430 - 470 元/吨区间， 5000 大卡煤炭为 360 - 400 元/吨，4500 大卡煤炭价格则在 280 - 320 元/吨；榆林地区非 电企业用煤 6000 大卡煤价格区间为 525 - 555 元/吨，5800 大卡煤价格区间为 500 - 530 元/吨；山西非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤种含税价格处于 470 - 520 元/吨区间，5000 大卡 煤种为 410 - 460 元/吨，4500 大卡煤种价格则在 350 - 400 元/吨之间。江内港口 5500 大 卡动力煤报价在 705-710 元/吨，5000 大卡动力煤报价 635-650 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 煤炭生产增速加快，产量再创历史同期新高，1-3 月份， ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Coal Daily Report, April 16, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Commodity Research, Energy and Chemical Industry R & D Report [1][8] Group 2: Market Review - Spot Market: On April 16, the port market was mainly stagnant, and traders' quotes remained stable. The market quotes for 5500 - kcal coal were 670 - 675 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal coal were 595 - 600 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal coal were 525 - 530 yuan/ton. Different regions had different price ranges for non - electric enterprise coal [3]. Group 3: Important News - Coal Production: In March, the raw coal output of above - scale industries was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, and the growth rate was 1.9 percentage points faster than that from January to February. From January to March, the raw coal output of above - scale industries was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [4]. Group 4: Logic Analysis Supply - Mine Production: With the stabilization of pit - mouth prices, coal mines basically resumed normal production. As of April 15, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions were 71% and 48% respectively, and the daily coal output in the two cities was around 3.9 - 4 million tons. The overall domestic supply was still abundant [5]. Demand - Power Plant Demand: Power plant daily consumption continued to decline, and the inventory level was at a medium - high level. Most power plants had low procurement willingness, and most of the small - volume purchases were based on rigid demand and price pressure. - Non - power Demand: The cement operating rate at the non - power end hovered at a low level. The restart of methanol and urea maintenance devices led to a high - level operation of the coal - to - methanol and coal - to - urea operating rates, and the overall demand for chemical coal was acceptable, providing stable support for coal prices in the pit - mouth area [5]. Inventory - Port Inventory: The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway remained at 1 million tons, and the number of approved wagons by the Hohhot Railway Bureau dropped to 30 trains. Port inventory continued to accumulate passively. As of April 16, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was around 30 million tons, reaching a record high [5]. - Power Plant Inventory: The daily consumption of coastal power plants decreased seasonally, and the inventory reduction was slow. The inventory of inland power plants remained high, resulting in the total inventory of national power plants remaining at a high level compared with the same period in previous years, and the inventory reduction speed was slow [5]. Price Forecast - Overall: In mid - April, the coal production in the main producing areas recovered, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions were stable at a high level, and the daily output increased to 4 million tons. The power plant inventory reduction was slow, and due to the impact of imported coal, power plants only maintained rigid demand procurement. The port inventory increased passively, and the available resources were abundant. The national temperature was higher than the same period, the power plant daily consumption decreased seasonally, the coal consumption was average compared with the same period, the inventory available days were high, and the port FOB price was weakly stable. In the pit - mouth area, the operating rates of coal - chemical products were high, the demand for chemical coal was acceptable, but the support from power plant long - term agreements weakened. However, the import was in an inverted state, and the import volume of coal decreased significantly. It is expected that coal prices will be mainly weakly stable [5]. Group 5: Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory and daily consumption data of different ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, etc., as well as the inventory, daily consumption and available days data of coastal 8 - province power plants, inland 17 - province power plants and national power plants [9][13]