Market Review - The main corn futures contract closed down 0.09% at 2320 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that due to dry weather in unharvested areas, corn harvesting progressed rapidly, with 70.4% of the planted area harvested. Argentina is the world's third-largest corn exporter, with an expected corn production of 49 million tons for the 2024/25 season [2] - The USDA's weekly export sales report indicated that as of the week ending July 3, 2025, the net sales of U.S. corn for the 2024/25 season were 1,262,100 tons, significantly higher than the previous week and 70% above the four-week average. For the 2025/26 season, net sales were 888,600 tons, down from 940,200 tons the previous week [2] - The latest USDA drought report showed that as of the week ending July 8, approximately 12% of U.S. corn planting areas were affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and up from 7% in the same period last year [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, overall processing demand is unlikely to increase, while wheat and imported corn continue to supplement market supply, leading to a slightly pessimistic market sentiment and a minor price correction. However, the rising costs of storage funds may limit the decline. The 2509 contract is expected to follow the spot market with a focus on fluctuations, and attention should be paid to weather impacts on new crops in corn-producing areas [3] - Southwest Futures noted that domestic corn supply and demand are tending towards balance, with favorable policies and recovering consumption. The sale of old grain in major production areas is nearing completion, and port inventories are quickly returning, reducing inventory pressure and providing strong support at the bottom for corn prices. From January to May, corn imports sharply decreased, and import margins have increased, suggesting potential for higher import volumes in the future. The China Grain Reserves Corporation continues to sell corn through online auctions, and imported corn is beginning to be released. The narrowing price gap with substitutes may face upward pressure, indicating a cautious outlook [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the digestion of old - crop corn and tightened grain imports, the corn supply will be tight in the third quarter. However, wheat prices will cap the upside of corn prices, and potential policy - grain auctions are a negative factor. After the production situation becomes clear in September and new - crop corn is listed in October, the far - month contracts C2511 and C2601 may have a slight downward trend, but it's hard to see a trending market like last year [2][136]. - The third - quarter corn futures contracts will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the fourth - quarter contracts may decline slightly [2][136][137]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **CBOT Corn Contracts**: In 2025, from January to February, affected by Brazil's heavy rainfall, Argentina's drought, and strong US corn exports, the CBOT corn futures price rose from 451 cents/bushel on January 3rd to 504.75 cents/bushel on February 21st. Due to tariff policy uncertainties, expected supply increases, and slower export sales, the price dropped to 452.25 cents/bushel at the end of February and early March and then oscillated between 450 - 470 cents/bushel. In April, with the adjustment of the US corn supply - demand balance, the price shifted to the 460 - 490 cents/bushel range. Since May, the price has been on a weakening trend, closing at 411.25 cents/bushel on June 27th. The net long positions of managed funds decreased from 337,454 hands on February 25th to - 164,020 hands on June 10th [8][10]. - **Domestic Corn Futures Market**: From December 2024 to April 2025, supported by the suspension of imported corn auctions and CGSGB purchases, the market was in a state of "strong expectation, weak reality". After April, with the end of grassroots grain sales and low imports, the supply pressure eased, and the market shifted to "consistent reality and expectation". The term structure changed from "near - weak, mid - strong, far - weak" to "near - strong, far - weak". The C2509 - C2511 contract spread oscillated within 50 - 90 yuan/ton. Corn spot prices rose steadily, with the national average price increasing by 15.1% to 2432.35 yuan/ton as of June 30th [11][12][14]. 2. Supply - **Import of Corn and Substitute Grains**: Since the second half of last year, China's corn imports have significantly decreased. In May 2025, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%. The import of substitute grains also decreased, with a 57.3% year - on - year decrease in May 2025. Due to the Sino - US trade conflict, US corn imports are difficult to recover in the short term [38][39]. - **Wheat Impact**: The 2025 wheat harvest was completed in mid - June. With the launch of the minimum purchase price policy in Henan, Anhui, and Hebei, wheat prices were supported. Currently, the wheat - corn price difference is low, and the proportion and scope of wheat feed substitution are expanding, with an annual feed consumption of about 33 - 35 million tons [43][44][45]. - **Imported Corn Auction**: On July 1, 2025, CGSGB launched its first imported corn directional invitation auction, with a scale of 189,000 tons. The auction was well - received, with a transaction volume of 183,000 tons and an average premium of 103 yuan/ton. A subsequent auction on July 4th with a larger scale may have a certain impact on market sentiment [52][53]. 3. Demand - **Feed Sales**: In May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.7 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month due to the narrowing wheat - corn price difference. From January to May, the monthly sales of pig feed increased year - on - year, and the growth is expected to continue [54][55]. - **Corn Deep - processing Enterprises**: In the first half of 2025, affected by losses, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises was low, and the corn consumption from January to June was 30.5783 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.84% [69]. - **CGSGB Corn Transactions**: Since late March, CGSGB's corn purchases have basically stagnated, and it has maintained a net rotation - out state. From September last year to now, the net purchase volume is 1.91 million tons [71]. 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Since April 2025, port corn inventories have been decreasing and are now in the normal range. As of June 27th, the inventory in the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.73% [76]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: Due to the increasing cost - effectiveness of wheat, the corn inventory of feed enterprises has started to decline. As of June 27th, the available days of corn inventory were 32.59 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.81% [79]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Inventory**: The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has remained stable. As of June 27th, the inventory was 4.567 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [81]. 5. Corn Starch - **Price Trend**: In the first half of 2025, the price of the Dalian corn starch futures main contract oscillated strongly, with a 11.69% increase as of June 30th. The basis oscillated between 0 - 220 yuan/ton. The corn starch - corn futures 09 - contract spread and the spot spread both decreased [86]. - **Supply and Demand**: The losses of corn starch enterprises have narrowed, production has stabilized, demand has remained stable but decreased year - on - year, and inventory has started to decline since June. It is expected that the price of corn starch will continue to follow the trend of corn in the second half of 2025 [87].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current market for old - crop corn inventory continues to decline, while the demand for corn in the breeding and feed production sectors is steadily increasing. The overall market for circulating grain is in a state of tight balance. Although the new - season wheat listing has a negative impact on grain prices, its actual impact on corn prices is limited, and multiple factors still support corn prices. - In the short term, the futures price may show a volatile trend due to price corrections in some regions and the phased pressure of new wheat listing. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap may drive inventory reduction, and the rigid increase in feed demand will gradually increase the probability of price recovery. [7][54] 3) Summary by Directory I.走势回顾 - **Futures Price Review**: Last week, the domestic corn futures main contract c2509 reached a high of 2420 yuan/ton and then declined, closing at 2384 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 0.21% increase from the previous day. The CBOT corn 09 contract closed at 411.25 cents per bushel, down 12.25 cents or 2.90% from the previous week, hitting a new low since October 2024. [5][13] - **Spot Price Review**: In the Northeast market, the price of second - class corn in Bayuquan was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Jinzhou Port, it was 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In the North China market, the price of deep - processed corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week, reaching a new high for the year. In the sales area, the mainstream price of second - class Northeast corn in Guangxi Shekou Port was 2440 - 2470 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous week. [5][18][20] II.上周重要信息回顾 - Policy: Heilongjiang plans to expand the planting area of fine varieties, with a maximum subsidy of 500,000 yuan per variety; Russia lowers wheat export tariffs by 56% and corn export tariffs by 10%. - Weather: China Meteorological Administration predicts heavy rainfall in the southwest to the Huanghuai region in the next 10 days. - Trade: In May 2025, China's grain imports increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and from January to May, cumulative imports decreased by 29.7% year - on - year. - Industry: Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% starting August 1; the ANEC predicts that Brazil's corn exports in June will be 828,959 tons, a 15.7% decrease from last year. The IGC expects the global grain output in the 2025/26 season to increase by 3% year - on - year. [21][22] III.国内玉米供需分析 - **中储粮拍卖情况**: Last week, there was 1 corn procurement auction with a 100% transaction rate; 14 sales auctions with a 90.23% transaction rate; 7 two - way trading auctions with a 90.18% transaction rate; and no import corn auctions. [24][26] - **深加工企业玉米库存情况**: As of June 25, the total corn inventory of 96 major deep - processing enterprises was 4.567 million tons, a 0.54% decrease from the previous period and a 2.40% increase year - on - year. [30] - **深加工企业玉米消费量情况**: From June 19 to 25, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1892 million tons of corn, an increase of 0.0129 million tons from the previous period. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes. [33] - **饲企库存情况**: As of June 26, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, a decrease of 0.48 days from the previous week, a 1.45% decrease from the previous period, and a 3.43% increase year - on - year. [40] IV.玉米下游需求情况 - **玉米深加工企业开工情况**: Recently, the start - up rate of corn starch has shown a differentiated trend, and the overall industry start - up rate has slightly declined. From June 19 to 25, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 0.5462 million tons, and the corn starch output was 0.2646 million tons, with the start - up rate at 51.15%, a 0.46% decrease from the previous week. [44] - **玉米深加工企业利润情况**: Last week, the hedging profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 132 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Shandong, it was - 117 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Heilongjiang, it was - 136 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. [49] - **玉米淀粉**: As of June 26, the total inventory of corn starch in the main producing areas was 940,300 tons, a 2.27% decrease from the previous period and a 9.22% increase year - on - year. The corn starch market remains strong, with some enterprises slightly raising their quotes. [53] V.后市展望 - In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate due to price corrections in some regions and the pressure of new wheat listing. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap may drive inventory reduction, and the rigid increase in feed demand will gradually increase the probability of price recovery. [7][54] VI.操作策略 - In the short term, due to market uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, closely monitor recent macro - policy adjustments and domestic and foreign supply - demand changes, and look for long - position layout opportunities in far - month contracts. [9][55]

Group 1: Report Core View - The corn market has seen a short - term correction, but the supply - demand tight pattern remains unchanged. The futures market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The market outlook is affected by factors such as CBOT corn price, wheat price, and corn starch inventory [2][6] Group 2: Corn Market Review Spot Market - As of May 16, the national average corn price was 2374.90 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces and 7 major producing provinces was 97%, 3% and 4% faster than the same period last year respectively [1] Futures Market - In the week of May 16, the futures market declined. The main contract (C2507) had a high of 2380 yuan/ton, a low of 2333 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 2335 yuan/ton. The basis of the main corn C2507 contract on May 16 was - 25 yuan/ton, strengthening from - 65 yuan/ton on May 9 [2] Group 3: Corn Market Outlook CBOT Corn - In the week of May 16, CBOT corn futures fell 1.39%. Warm and dry weather in the past two weeks accelerated sowing, and future cool and rainy weather will promote crop growth. Export demand provides some support [3] Wheat Price and Corn Auction - Wheat prices rose, and imported corn auctions stopped. As of the week of May 16, the corn procurement transaction rate was 70.50%, up 70.50% from last week; the sales transaction rate was 95.59%, down 4.41% from last week; the two - way transaction rate was 84.03%, down 15.97% from last week. The national average wheat price was 2472 yuan/ton as of May 15 [4] Corn Starch Inventory - As of the week of May 15, the total inventory of corn starch in the main producing areas was 1012600 tons, down 17200 tons (1.67%) from the previous period, and up 1.58% from the same period last year [5] Short - term Correction - The supply - demand tight pattern of corn remains unchanged. Traders' shipments have increased, but the actual shipment situation is average. The arrival volume at deep - processing enterprises remains high, and the enterprise price has been slightly reduced. The futures price has corrected, and the basis has strengthened [6]